湖南省水资源脆弱性时空演变研究
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摘要
为研究湖南省水资源脆弱性动态演变问题,利用GIS和RS技术,基于PSR概念模型构建水资源脆弱性评价指标体系,采用改进的主成分分析法和熵值法确定水资源脆弱性指标综合权重,对2005—2013年湖南省水资源脆弱性的时空演变特征和脆弱性成因进行分析与探讨。结果表明:(1)研究区水资源脆弱性时空分布格局呈现"中高周低,东强西弱"之势;(2)重度和极度脆弱区域团聚在东部和北部,微度和轻度脆弱区域呈阶梯状分布在西南两翼,中度脆弱区域如星罗棋布般分布在各个州市;(3)从时间变化上看,大体呈现"首尾时段波动明显,中间时段相对稳定"的特征;(4)从演化的空间分异特征看,其脆弱性变化大致分为2种类型:持续增速型和低速稳定型。由此可见,近9年来,湖南省水资源脆弱性具有明显的时空分异特征。人类活动的影响是水资源持续脆弱的主导因素;强降雨事件发生的频率是区域水资源系统性增强与减弱并存的直接原因。
In order to study the dynamic evolution of the water resources vulnerability( WRV) in Hunan province. By using GIS,RS technology and based on the water resources pressure-sensitivity-applicability( PSR)conceptual model,an evaluation index system for WRV was constructed. Meanwhile,principal component analysis( PCA) and entropy method was adopted to determine the weight of WRV index from 2005 to 2013.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of WRV and its reasons was analyzed as well. The results show:( 1)during the study period,the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of WRV is low in the border regions and high in central regions,strong in the east and weak in the west;( 2) Severe vulnerability of WRV centralizes along the north and east,while the slight and moderate vulnerability is ladder-like distributed along the south and west. Meanwhile,the areas of moderate vulnerability disperse all over the study area;( 3) the feature of time series of the WRV typically present fluctuated at the begin and end of the study period,and relatively stabilized in the middle period;( 4) from the spatial differentiations of evolution,the vulnerability changes are broadly divided into two types: continuous growth and low speed stability. In recent nine years,WRV of Hunan province had an strong spatial and temporal variability. The impact of human activities is the dominant factor that drives water resources continue to be fragile. Meanwhile,the frequently heavy rainfall events is the direct causation of the coexistence of increased and weakened WRV.
In order to study the dynamic evolution of the water resources vulnerability( WRV) in Hunan province. By using GIS,RS technology and based on the water resources pressure-sensitivity-applicability( PSR)conceptual model,an evaluation index system for WRV was constructed. Meanwhile,principal component analysis( PCA) and entropy method was adopted to determine the weight of WRV index from 2005 to 2013.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of WRV and its reasons was analyzed as well. The results show:( 1)during the study period,the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of WRV is low in the border regions and high in central regions,strong in the east and weak in the west;( 2) Severe vulnerability of WRV centralizes along the north and east,while the slight and moderate vulnerability is ladder-like distributed along the south and west. Meanwhile,the areas of moderate vulnerability disperse all over the study area;( 3) the feature of time series of the WRV typically present fluctuated at the begin and end of the study period,and relatively stabilized in the middle period;( 4) from the spatial differentiations of evolution,the vulnerability changes are broadly divided into two types: continuous growth and low speed stability. In recent nine years,WRV of Hunan province had an strong spatial and temporal variability. The impact of human activities is the dominant factor that drives water resources continue to be fragile. Meanwhile,the frequently heavy rainfall events is the direct causation of the coexistence of increased and weakened WRV.
引文
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[15]马冬梅,陈大春.基于熵权法的模糊集对分析模型在乌鲁木齐市水资源脆弱性评价中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(9):36-40.MA D M,CHEN D C.Vulnerability assessment of water resources based on the entropy fuzzy set pair analysis model in Urumqi[J].Water Resources and Power,2015,33(9):36-40.
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[18]刘正佳,于兴修,李蕾等.基于SRP概念模型的沂蒙山区生态环境脆弱性评价[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(8):2084-2090.LIU Z J,YU X X,LI L,et al.Vulnerability assessment of eco-environment in Yimeng mountainous area of Shandong Province based on SRP conceptual model[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2011,22(8):2084-2090.
[2]夏军,雒新萍,曹建廷,等.气候变化对中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性的影响评价[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,11(1):8-14.XIA J,LUO X P,CAO J T,et al.Impact assessment of climate change on water resource vulnerability in eastern China monsoon[J].Progressus Inquisitiones DE Mutatione Climatis,2015,11(1):8-14.
[3]邹君,杨玉蓉,谢小立.地表水资源脆弱性:概念、内涵及定量评价[J].水土保持通报,2007,27(2):132-135.ZOU J,YANG Y R,XIE X L.Surface water resources vulnerability:concept,content and quantitative evaluation[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,27(2):132-135.
[4]邹君,刘兰芳,田亚平,等.地表水资源的脆弱性及其评价初探[J].资源科学,2007,29(1):92-98.ZOU J,LIU L F,TIAN Y P.Fragility and assessment of surface water resources vulnerability[J].Resources Science,2007,29(1):92-98.
[5]董四方,董增川,陈康宁.基于DPSIR概念模型的水资源系统脆弱性分析[J].水资源保护,2010,26(4):1-3.DONG S F,DONG Z C,CHEN K N.Vulnerability analysis of water resources system based on DPSIR conceptual model[J].Water Resources Protection,2010,26(4):1-3.
[6]朱怡娟,黄建武,揭毅.武汉城市圈水资源脆弱性评价[J].水资源保护,2015,31(2):59-64.ZHU Y J,HUANG J W,QI Y.Water resources vulnerability assessment in Wuhan city circle[J].Water Resources Protection,2015,31(2):59-64.
[7]李倩,李伦.基于PSR理论的河南省水资源脆弱性评价[J].河南城建学院学报,2015,24(4):48-53.LI Q,LI L.Assessment of water resources Vulnerability based on PSR theory in Henan province[J].Journal of Henan University of Urban Construction,2015,24(4):48-53.
[8]陈康宁,董增川,崔志清.基于分形理论的区域水资源系统脆弱性评价[J].水资源保护,2008,24(3):24-26.CHEN L N,DONG Z C,CUI Z Q.Vulnerability assessment of regional water resources system based on fractal theory[J].Water Resources Protection,2008,24(3):24-26.
[9]WU D,YAN D H,YANG G Y,et al.Assessment on agricultural drought vulnerability in the Yellow River basin based on a fuzzy clustering iterative model[J].Natural Hazards,2013,67(2):919-936.
[10]YANG W,XIA X,PAN B,et al.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of water and sand inrush risk during underground mining[J].Journal of Intelligant Fuzzy System,2016,30(4):2289-2295.
[11]LI L,SHI Z H,YIN W,et al.A fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP)approach to eco-environmental vulnerability assessment for the danjiangkou reservoir area[J].China ECOL MODEL,2009,220(23):3439-3447.
[12]SENER E,DAVRAZ A,et al.Assessment of groundwater vulnerability based on a modified DRASTIC model,GIS and an analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method:the case of Egirdir Lake basin(Isparta,Turkey)[J].Hgdrogeology Journal,2013,21(3):701-714.
[13]ZHANG Y,ZHANG K,NIU Z,et al.Reservoir-type water source vulnerability assessment:a case study of the Yuqiao Reservoir,China[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2016,61(7):1291-1300.
[14]邹君,郑文武,杨玉蓉.基于GIS/RS的南方丘陵区农村水资源系统脆弱性评价:以衡阳盆地为例[J].地理科学,2014,34(8):1010-1017.ZOU J,ZHEN W W,YANG Y R.Hilly Areas vulnerability assessment of rural water resources system based on GIS/RS technology:A Case study of Hengyang Basin[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(8):1010-1017.
[15]马冬梅,陈大春.基于熵权法的模糊集对分析模型在乌鲁木齐市水资源脆弱性评价中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(9):36-40.MA D M,CHEN D C.Vulnerability assessment of water resources based on the entropy fuzzy set pair analysis model in Urumqi[J].Water Resources and Power,2015,33(9):36-40.
[16]LIU H L,WILLEMS P,BAO A M,et al.Effect of climate change on the vulnerability of a socio-ecological system in an arid area[J].Global Planet Change,2016,137:1-9.
[17]LI A,WANG A,LIANG S,et al.Eco-environmental vulnerability evaluation in mountainous region using remote sensing and GIS-A case study in the upper reaches of Minjiang River[J].China.Ecdogical Modelling,2006,192(1-2):175-187.
[18]刘正佳,于兴修,李蕾等.基于SRP概念模型的沂蒙山区生态环境脆弱性评价[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(8):2084-2090.LIU Z J,YU X X,LI L,et al.Vulnerability assessment of eco-environment in Yimeng mountainous area of Shandong Province based on SRP conceptual model[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2011,22(8):2084-2090.