进口中间品质量、自主创新与企业出口国内增加值率
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摘要
中国经济已转向高质量发展阶段,对外贸易也应从"大进大出"转向"优进优出"。本文在扩展的Kee and Tang(2016)模型框架下,分析进口中间品质量对企业出口国内增加值率(DVAR)的静态影响和动态效应。静态条件下进口中间品质量与企业出口DVAR负相关,其通过自主创新产生"加成率效应"和"相对价格效应"动态改进企业出口DVAR。在此基础上,本文利用中国工业企业数据、海关数据和专利数据对理论假说进行了实证检验。结果表明:(1)进口中间品质量静态下与企业出口DVAR显著负相关,动态下全样本效应为负,一般贸易不显著,而加工贸易显著负相关;(2)研发行为对一般贸易进口中间品质量的动态影响具有调节效应,较高研发程度的企业该效应显著为正;(3)对影响渠道的检验发现,创新对企业出口DVAR作用的显著中介变量是加成率和相对价格;(4)进一步分析发现,更高显性比较优势、更低与技术前沿差距和更优省份市场化指数对创新活动具有明显正向调节效应。上述结论表明,推动进口政策由出口导向向创新导向升级是建设更高全球价值链地位下贸易强国的有效途径。
China's economy has turned to the stage of high quality development, and foreign trade should also turn from "massive imports and massive exports" to "quality imports and quality exports". Under the framework of the extended Kee and Tang(2016) model, this paper analyzes the static and dynamic effects of import intermediate quality on the firms' export domestic value added ratio(DVAR). Under the static condition, the quality of import intermediate is negatively related to the firms' export DVAR, and it dynamically improves the firms' export DVAR through independent innovation, resulting in "markup effects" and "relative price effects". On this basis, this paper empirically tests the theoretical propositions through ASIF, customs data and the patent data.The results show that:(1) under static condition, the quality of import intermediate and export DVAR are significantly negative correlated, the full sample dynamic effect is negative, while subsample of ordinary trade is not significant;(2) the innovation behavior has a moderating effect on ordinary trade, the dynamic effects are significantly positive when the level of innovation is sufficiently enough;(3) check on the channel of innovation effects on the export firms finds that intermediary variables are markups and the relative price;(4) further analysis shows that higher RCA, lower technology gap and better provincial market index have obviously positive effects on innovation activities. The above conclusions prove that the promotion of import policy from export to innovation oriented is an effective way to build a stronger trade power under the higher position of global value chain.
China's economy has turned to the stage of high quality development, and foreign trade should also turn from "massive imports and massive exports" to "quality imports and quality exports". Under the framework of the extended Kee and Tang(2016) model, this paper analyzes the static and dynamic effects of import intermediate quality on the firms' export domestic value added ratio(DVAR). Under the static condition, the quality of import intermediate is negatively related to the firms' export DVAR, and it dynamically improves the firms' export DVAR through independent innovation, resulting in "markup effects" and "relative price effects". On this basis, this paper empirically tests the theoretical propositions through ASIF, customs data and the patent data.The results show that:(1) under static condition, the quality of import intermediate and export DVAR are significantly negative correlated, the full sample dynamic effect is negative, while subsample of ordinary trade is not significant;(2) the innovation behavior has a moderating effect on ordinary trade, the dynamic effects are significantly positive when the level of innovation is sufficiently enough;(3) check on the channel of innovation effects on the export firms finds that intermediary variables are markups and the relative price;(4) further analysis shows that higher RCA, lower technology gap and better provincial market index have obviously positive effects on innovation activities. The above conclusions prove that the promotion of import policy from export to innovation oriented is an effective way to build a stronger trade power under the higher position of global value chain.
引文
[1]程惠芳,陈超.开放经济下知识资本与全要素生产率——国际经验与中国启示[J].经济研究,2017,(10):21-36.
[2]樊纲,王小鲁,马光荣.中国市场化进程对经济增长的贡献[J].经济研究,2011,(9):4-16.
[3]黄先海,宋学印.准前沿经济体的技术进步路径及动力转换——从“追赶导向”到“竞争导向”[J].中国社会科学,2017,(6):60-79.
[4]黄先海,诸竹君,宋学印.中国出口企业阶段性低加成率陷阱[J].世界经济,2016a,(3):95-117.
[5]黄先海,诸竹君,宋学印.中国中间品进口企业“低加成率之谜”[J].管理世界,2016b,(7):23-35.
[6]李胜旗,毛其淋.制造业上游垄断与企业出口国内附加值——来自中国的经验证据[J].中国工业经济,2017,(3):101-119.
[7]毛其淋,许家云.中间品贸易自由化与制造业就业变动——来自中国加入WTO的微观证据[J].经济研究,2016,(1):69-83.
[8]施炳展,曾祥菲.中国企业进口产品质量测算与事实[J].世界经济,2015,(3):57-77.
[9]王孝松,吕越,赵春明.贸易壁垒与全球价值链嵌入——以中国遭遇反倾销为例[J].中国社会科学,2017,(1):108-124.
[10]魏浩,林薛栋.进口产品质量与中国企业创新[J].统计研究,2017,(6):16-26.
[11]张杰,陈志远,刘元春.中国出口国内附加值的测算与变化机制[J].经济研究,2013,(10):124-137.
[12]郑亚莉,王毅,郭晶.进口中间品质量对企业生产率的影响:不同层面的实证[J].国际贸易问题,2017,(6):50-60.
[13]诸竹君.进口中间品能否提升中国工业企业加成率[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2017,(2):128-137.
[14]诸竹君,黄先海,宋学印,胡馨月,王煌.劳动力成本上升、倒逼式创新与中国企业加成率动态[J].世界经济,2017a,(8):53-77.
[15]诸竹君,黄先海,王煌.产品创新提升了出口企业加成率吗[J].国际贸易问题,2017b,(7):17-26.
[16]Acemoglu,D.,P.Aghion,and F.Zilibotti.Distance to Frontier,Selection,and Economic Growth[J].Journal of the European Economic Association,2006,4(1):37-74.
[17]Aghion,P.,A.Bergeaud,M.Lequien,and M.J.Melitz.The Impact of Exports on Innovation:Theory and Evidence[R].NBER Working Paper,2018.
[18]Amiti,M.,and J.Konings.Trade Liberalization,Intermediate Inputs,and Productivity:Evidence from Indonesia[J].American Economic Review,2007,97(5):1611-1638.
[19]Antonietti,R.,and G.Cainelli.The Role of Spatial Agglomeration in a Structural Model of Innovation,Productivity and Export:A Firm-Level Analysis[J].Annals of Regional Science,2011,46(3):577-600.
[20]Bas,M.,and V.Strauss-Kahn.Input-trade Liberalization,Export Prices and Quality Upgrading[J].Journal of International Economics,2015,95(2):250-262.
[21]Blomstrom,M.,and F.Sjoholm.Technology Transfer and Spillovers:Does Local Participation with Multinationals Matter[J].European Economic Review,1999,43(4):915-923.
[22]Brandt,L.,J.Van Biesebroeck,and Y.Zhang.Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction?Firm-Level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,97(2):339-351.
[23]Cassiman,B.,E.Golovko,and E.Martínez-Ros.Innovation,Exports and Productivity[J].International Journal of Industrial Organization,2010,28(4):372-376.
[24]Cassiman,B.,and S.Vanormelingen.Profiting from Innovation:Firm Level Evidence on Markups[R].CEPR Discussion Paper,2013.
[25]Chakraborty,P.Judicial Quality and Regional Firm Performance:The Case of Indian States[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2016,44(4):902-918.
[26]Coe,D.T.,and E.Helpman.International R&D Spillovers[J].European Economic Review,1995,39(5):859-887.
[27]Colantone,I.,and R.Crinò.New Imported Inputs,New Domestic Products[J].Journal of International Economics,2014,92(1):147-165.
[28]Crowley,F.,and P.Mc Cann.Firm Innovation and Productivity in Europe:Evidence from Innovation-Driven and Transition-Driven Economies[J].Applied Economics,2018,50(11):1203-1221.
[29]De Loecker,J.,and F.Warzynski.Markups and Firm-level Export Status[J].American Economic Review,2012,102(6):2437-2471.
[30]Dean,J.M.,and M.E.Lovely.Trade Growth,Production Fragmentation,and China’s Environment[M].China’s Growing Role in World Trade.Chicago:University of Chicago Press,2010.
[31]Fagerberg,J.Technology and International Differences in Growth Rates[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1994,32(3):1147-1175.
[32]Gibbon,P.,J.Bair,and S.Ponte.Governing Global Value Chains:An Introduction[J].Economy and Society,2008,37(3):315-338.
[33]Halpern,L.,M.Koren,and A.Szeidl.Imported Inputs and Productivity[J].American Economic Review,2015,105(12):3660-3703.
[34]Kee,H.L.,and H.Tang.Domestic Value Added in Exports:Theory and Firm Evidence from China[J].American Economic Review,2016,106(6):1402-1436.
[35]Koopman,R.,Z.Wang,and S.J.Wei.Estimating Domestic Content in Exports When Processing Trade is Pervasive[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,99(1):178-189.
[36]Liu,Q.,and L.D.Qiu.Intermediate Input Imports and Innovations:Evidence from Chinese Firms’Patent Filings[J].Journal of International Economics,2016,(103):166-183.
[37]Ma,H.,Z.Wang,and K.Zhu.Domestic Content in China’s Exports and Its Distribution by Firm Ownership[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2015,43(1):3-18.
[38]Minniti,A.,and F.Venturini.R&D Policy,Productivity Growth and Distance to Frontier[J].Economics Letters,2017,(156):92-94.
[39]Santacreu,A.M.Innovation,Diffusion,and Trade:Theory and Measurement[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2015,75(7):1-20.
(1)该报告由商务部会同相关部委委托中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院开展中国贸易增加值核算及相关议题系统研究的成果(详见http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ae/ai/201412/20141200843799.shtml)。
(1)上述结果可通过对式(5)求一阶偏导得到,具体的分析结果详见《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)公开附件。
(1)上述企业投入产出变量均已采用取对数方式处理。
(2)在海关数据库中,可以发现这两种贸易方式占到进出口总额的95%以上。
(1)企业进口中间品质量的测算方法,详见《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)公开附件。
(2)内部融资约束衡量指标为流动率=(流动资产-流动负债)/固定资产合计,外部融资约束衡量指标使用利息率(利息合计/固定资产合计)表示(黄先海等,2016b)。
(1)全样本中,企业出口DVAR的标准差约为0.2543,这里0.2064≈0.0525/0.2543,表示相对于标准差的系数值,其中,0.0525=0.525×10%,以下关于企业出口DVAR标准差相对值的计算同上。
(1)全样本研发支出的临界值计算根据表4中第(1)列,62.62≈0.0814/0.0013这一结果可根据交互项模型性质得到。
(1)稳健性检验中还包括倾向得分匹配—倍差法(PSM-DID)、三重差分法和基于出口退税的双重差分法,详见《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)公开附件。
(2)加工贸易进口相关规定详见海关总署第219号(《中华人民共和国海关加工贸易货物监管办法》)。
(3)两组企业进口中间品质量比较图请详见《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)公开附件。
(4)假定处理组和控制组存在线性时间趋势。
(1)美国2位码行业生产率数据来源于http://www.nber.org/data/nberces.html。本文建立了美国行业代码(SIC)和中国行业代码(CIC)的对照关系,具体步骤如下:匹配CIC和ISIC Rev.3(Dean and Lovely,2010);匹配ISIC Rev.3和SIC Rev.1987。
[2]樊纲,王小鲁,马光荣.中国市场化进程对经济增长的贡献[J].经济研究,2011,(9):4-16.
[3]黄先海,宋学印.准前沿经济体的技术进步路径及动力转换——从“追赶导向”到“竞争导向”[J].中国社会科学,2017,(6):60-79.
[4]黄先海,诸竹君,宋学印.中国出口企业阶段性低加成率陷阱[J].世界经济,2016a,(3):95-117.
[5]黄先海,诸竹君,宋学印.中国中间品进口企业“低加成率之谜”[J].管理世界,2016b,(7):23-35.
[6]李胜旗,毛其淋.制造业上游垄断与企业出口国内附加值——来自中国的经验证据[J].中国工业经济,2017,(3):101-119.
[7]毛其淋,许家云.中间品贸易自由化与制造业就业变动——来自中国加入WTO的微观证据[J].经济研究,2016,(1):69-83.
[8]施炳展,曾祥菲.中国企业进口产品质量测算与事实[J].世界经济,2015,(3):57-77.
[9]王孝松,吕越,赵春明.贸易壁垒与全球价值链嵌入——以中国遭遇反倾销为例[J].中国社会科学,2017,(1):108-124.
[10]魏浩,林薛栋.进口产品质量与中国企业创新[J].统计研究,2017,(6):16-26.
[11]张杰,陈志远,刘元春.中国出口国内附加值的测算与变化机制[J].经济研究,2013,(10):124-137.
[12]郑亚莉,王毅,郭晶.进口中间品质量对企业生产率的影响:不同层面的实证[J].国际贸易问题,2017,(6):50-60.
[13]诸竹君.进口中间品能否提升中国工业企业加成率[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2017,(2):128-137.
[14]诸竹君,黄先海,宋学印,胡馨月,王煌.劳动力成本上升、倒逼式创新与中国企业加成率动态[J].世界经济,2017a,(8):53-77.
[15]诸竹君,黄先海,王煌.产品创新提升了出口企业加成率吗[J].国际贸易问题,2017b,(7):17-26.
[16]Acemoglu,D.,P.Aghion,and F.Zilibotti.Distance to Frontier,Selection,and Economic Growth[J].Journal of the European Economic Association,2006,4(1):37-74.
[17]Aghion,P.,A.Bergeaud,M.Lequien,and M.J.Melitz.The Impact of Exports on Innovation:Theory and Evidence[R].NBER Working Paper,2018.
[18]Amiti,M.,and J.Konings.Trade Liberalization,Intermediate Inputs,and Productivity:Evidence from Indonesia[J].American Economic Review,2007,97(5):1611-1638.
[19]Antonietti,R.,and G.Cainelli.The Role of Spatial Agglomeration in a Structural Model of Innovation,Productivity and Export:A Firm-Level Analysis[J].Annals of Regional Science,2011,46(3):577-600.
[20]Bas,M.,and V.Strauss-Kahn.Input-trade Liberalization,Export Prices and Quality Upgrading[J].Journal of International Economics,2015,95(2):250-262.
[21]Blomstrom,M.,and F.Sjoholm.Technology Transfer and Spillovers:Does Local Participation with Multinationals Matter[J].European Economic Review,1999,43(4):915-923.
[22]Brandt,L.,J.Van Biesebroeck,and Y.Zhang.Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction?Firm-Level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,97(2):339-351.
[23]Cassiman,B.,E.Golovko,and E.Martínez-Ros.Innovation,Exports and Productivity[J].International Journal of Industrial Organization,2010,28(4):372-376.
[24]Cassiman,B.,and S.Vanormelingen.Profiting from Innovation:Firm Level Evidence on Markups[R].CEPR Discussion Paper,2013.
[25]Chakraborty,P.Judicial Quality and Regional Firm Performance:The Case of Indian States[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2016,44(4):902-918.
[26]Coe,D.T.,and E.Helpman.International R&D Spillovers[J].European Economic Review,1995,39(5):859-887.
[27]Colantone,I.,and R.Crinò.New Imported Inputs,New Domestic Products[J].Journal of International Economics,2014,92(1):147-165.
[28]Crowley,F.,and P.Mc Cann.Firm Innovation and Productivity in Europe:Evidence from Innovation-Driven and Transition-Driven Economies[J].Applied Economics,2018,50(11):1203-1221.
[29]De Loecker,J.,and F.Warzynski.Markups and Firm-level Export Status[J].American Economic Review,2012,102(6):2437-2471.
[30]Dean,J.M.,and M.E.Lovely.Trade Growth,Production Fragmentation,and China’s Environment[M].China’s Growing Role in World Trade.Chicago:University of Chicago Press,2010.
[31]Fagerberg,J.Technology and International Differences in Growth Rates[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1994,32(3):1147-1175.
[32]Gibbon,P.,J.Bair,and S.Ponte.Governing Global Value Chains:An Introduction[J].Economy and Society,2008,37(3):315-338.
[33]Halpern,L.,M.Koren,and A.Szeidl.Imported Inputs and Productivity[J].American Economic Review,2015,105(12):3660-3703.
[34]Kee,H.L.,and H.Tang.Domestic Value Added in Exports:Theory and Firm Evidence from China[J].American Economic Review,2016,106(6):1402-1436.
[35]Koopman,R.,Z.Wang,and S.J.Wei.Estimating Domestic Content in Exports When Processing Trade is Pervasive[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,99(1):178-189.
[36]Liu,Q.,and L.D.Qiu.Intermediate Input Imports and Innovations:Evidence from Chinese Firms’Patent Filings[J].Journal of International Economics,2016,(103):166-183.
[37]Ma,H.,Z.Wang,and K.Zhu.Domestic Content in China’s Exports and Its Distribution by Firm Ownership[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2015,43(1):3-18.
[38]Minniti,A.,and F.Venturini.R&D Policy,Productivity Growth and Distance to Frontier[J].Economics Letters,2017,(156):92-94.
[39]Santacreu,A.M.Innovation,Diffusion,and Trade:Theory and Measurement[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2015,75(7):1-20.
(1)该报告由商务部会同相关部委委托中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院开展中国贸易增加值核算及相关议题系统研究的成果(详见http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ae/ai/201412/20141200843799.shtml)。
(1)上述结果可通过对式(5)求一阶偏导得到,具体的分析结果详见《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)公开附件。
(1)上述企业投入产出变量均已采用取对数方式处理。
(2)在海关数据库中,可以发现这两种贸易方式占到进出口总额的95%以上。
(1)企业进口中间品质量的测算方法,详见《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)公开附件。
(2)内部融资约束衡量指标为流动率=(流动资产-流动负债)/固定资产合计,外部融资约束衡量指标使用利息率(利息合计/固定资产合计)表示(黄先海等,2016b)。
(1)全样本中,企业出口DVAR的标准差约为0.2543,这里0.2064≈0.0525/0.2543,表示相对于标准差的系数值,其中,0.0525=0.525×10%,以下关于企业出口DVAR标准差相对值的计算同上。
(1)全样本研发支出的临界值计算根据表4中第(1)列,62.62≈0.0814/0.0013这一结果可根据交互项模型性质得到。
(1)稳健性检验中还包括倾向得分匹配—倍差法(PSM-DID)、三重差分法和基于出口退税的双重差分法,详见《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)公开附件。
(2)加工贸易进口相关规定详见海关总署第219号(《中华人民共和国海关加工贸易货物监管办法》)。
(3)两组企业进口中间品质量比较图请详见《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)公开附件。
(4)假定处理组和控制组存在线性时间趋势。
(1)美国2位码行业生产率数据来源于http://www.nber.org/data/nberces.html。本文建立了美国行业代码(SIC)和中国行业代码(CIC)的对照关系,具体步骤如下:匹配CIC和ISIC Rev.3(Dean and Lovely,2010);匹配ISIC Rev.3和SIC Rev.1987。