标准化综合干旱指数在北汝河流域干旱评价中的应用
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摘要
河南省北汝河流域频发的干旱灾害严重影响工农业生产和人民生活,分析评价干旱旱情对指导抗旱救灾、减轻干旱灾害损失具有重要意义。采用新安江模型模拟计算北汝河汝州站以上流域1985～2016年日尺度径流深、蒸散发、土壤含水率,对其月尺度值与月降水量进行核熵成分分析,构建综合干旱指数,在对比分析不同分布函数拟合优劣的基础上选取拟合最优的对数逻辑斯特分布函数对综合干旱指数进行标准化得到标准化综合干旱指数;基于标准化综合干旱指数分析流域1985～2016年干旱情势演变,并与标准化降水指数和降水距平百分率的评价结果进行比较。结果表明,北汝河流域1985～2016年干旱事件发生频率呈增加趋势;标准化综合干旱指数对轻度干旱事件更为敏感,能较好地反映流域干旱特性及典型干旱事件的演进过程。研究结果为北汝河流域抗旱减灾提供了科学支撑,亦对其他地区干旱评价具有借鉴意义。
Frequent drought in the Beiruhe river basin affects the production of industry and agriculture and people's life greatly.It is significant to analyze and evaluate the drought situation for drought relief and disaster loss reduction.In this paper,the basin above Ruzhou station is selected as the study area.The daily runoff,evapotranspiration and soil moisture from 1985 to 2016 are calculated by Xin'anjiang model.The monthly scale value and monthly precipitation are analyzed by Kernel entropy component analysis and the multivariate drought index(MMDI)is constructed.On the basis of comparing and analyzing the fit of different distribution functions,the logarithmic logistic distribution is selected to carry out the standardized multivariate drought index(SSMDI);Based on SSMDI,the evolution of drought situation during 1985 and 2016 is analyzed and compared with the evaluation results of SSPIand PPa.The frequency of drought events increased from 1985 to 2016 in the Beiruhe river basin.SSMDIis more sensitive to mild drought event,and can reflect the evolution of typical drought events more accurately.The results provide scientific support for drought resistance and disaster reduction in the Beiruhe river basin and can be used for reference for drought evaluation in other areas.
Frequent drought in the Beiruhe river basin affects the production of industry and agriculture and people's life greatly.It is significant to analyze and evaluate the drought situation for drought relief and disaster loss reduction.In this paper,the basin above Ruzhou station is selected as the study area.The daily runoff,evapotranspiration and soil moisture from 1985 to 2016 are calculated by Xin'anjiang model.The monthly scale value and monthly precipitation are analyzed by Kernel entropy component analysis and the multivariate drought index(MMDI)is constructed.On the basis of comparing and analyzing the fit of different distribution functions,the logarithmic logistic distribution is selected to carry out the standardized multivariate drought index(SSMDI);Based on SSMDI,the evolution of drought situation during 1985 and 2016 is analyzed and compared with the evaluation results of SSPIand PPa.The frequency of drought events increased from 1985 to 2016 in the Beiruhe river basin.SSMDIis more sensitive to mild drought event,and can reflect the evolution of typical drought events more accurately.The results provide scientific support for drought resistance and disaster reduction in the Beiruhe river basin and can be used for reference for drought evaluation in other areas.
引文
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[2] Jenssen R.Kernel Entropy Component Analysis[J].IEEE Transactions.on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence,2010,32(5):847-860.
[3]赵茹欣,赵雪花.基于标准径流指数法的汾河上游水文干旱等级划分研究[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(9):11-14.
[4] Vicente-Serrano S M,López-Moreno J I,Beguería S,et al.Accurate Computation of a Streamflow Drought Index[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2012,17(2):318-332.
[5]田苗,李卫国.基于TRMM遥感数据的旱涝时空特征分析[J].农业机械学报,2015,46(5):252-257.
[6] Mckee T B,Doesken N J,Kleist J.The Relationship of Drought Frequency And Duration to time scales[C]//Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology,1993,17(22):179-183.