基于系统动力学的十堰市水资源供需特性研究
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摘要
以十堰市为研究对象,基于系统动力学原理,运用Vensim软件,在分析十堰市水资源开发利用现状的基础上,综合考虑社会、经济、水资源等子系统,建立十堰市水资源供需系统动力学模型,定量模拟研究区内水资源供需状况。设计了3种情境下水资源开发利用模拟方案,预测未来水资源的供需形势,进行研究区水资源供需特性分析。结果表明模拟期内十堰市水资源供需矛盾突出,按照现状发展,未来阶段内十堰市的水资源供需缺口逐步加大,而通过调整产业结构,提高各部门用水效率,提高水资源开发投资,水资源供需缺额降低。为保证十堰市水资源的可持续发展,建议提高社会各行各业的用水效率、节水水平和水资源重复利用率,同时加大水利投资,提高水资源开发利用率。
Taking Shiyan city as the research object, based on the principle of system dynamics, this paper established the dynamic model of water supply and demand in Shiyan city by considering the subsystems of society, economy and water resources,which was based on the analysis of the status quot of water resources development and utilization by using Vensim software.The model quantitatively simulated the supply and demand of water resources in the study area.The simulation plan for water resources development and utilization under three scenarios was designed to predict the supply and demand situation of water resources in the future, and analyzed the characteristics of water supply and demand in the study area.The results showed that the contradiction between water supply and demand is prominentduring the simulation period. According to the current situation, the gap between supply and demand o fwater resources would gradually increase in the future. The shortage of water supply and demand would be reduced by adjusting the industrial structure, improving the water use efficiency and increasing the investment in water resources development.In order to ensure the sustainable development of water resources in Shiyan city, it is suggested to improve the water use efficiency, the water-saving level and the water-reusing rate in society.While, increasing water conservancy investment and improving water resources development and utilization would be good ideas as well.
Taking Shiyan city as the research object, based on the principle of system dynamics, this paper established the dynamic model of water supply and demand in Shiyan city by considering the subsystems of society, economy and water resources,which was based on the analysis of the status quot of water resources development and utilization by using Vensim software.The model quantitatively simulated the supply and demand of water resources in the study area.The simulation plan for water resources development and utilization under three scenarios was designed to predict the supply and demand situation of water resources in the future, and analyzed the characteristics of water supply and demand in the study area.The results showed that the contradiction between water supply and demand is prominentduring the simulation period. According to the current situation, the gap between supply and demand o fwater resources would gradually increase in the future. The shortage of water supply and demand would be reduced by adjusting the industrial structure, improving the water use efficiency and increasing the investment in water resources development.In order to ensure the sustainable development of water resources in Shiyan city, it is suggested to improve the water use efficiency, the water-saving level and the water-reusing rate in society.While, increasing water conservancy investment and improving water resources development and utilization would be good ideas as well.
引文
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[21] 高成康, 包存宽, 蒋大和,等. 基于SD的水质型缺水区水系统的模拟分析——以上海杨浦区为例[J]. 地理研究, 2007, 26(5):113-120.
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[23] 杨明杰,杨广,何新林,等.基于系统动力学的玛纳斯河灌区水资源供需平衡分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(1):174-180.
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[25] 十堰市水利水电局. 十堰市水资源公报[Z] . 2008-2016.
[2] 王其潘.系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1994.
[3] 钟永光,贾晓菁,李旭.系统动力学[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.
[4] FORRESTER J W. Industrial dynamics: A breakthrough for decision makers [J].Harvard Business Review,1958,36(4) : 37-66.
[5] FENG M Y, LIU P, LI Z, et al. Modeling the nexus across water supply, power generation and environment systems using the system dynamics approach: Hehuang Region, China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2016,543:344-359.
[6] LIN C S, YANG C C, YEH C H. Modeling and analysis of water resources system problems by using the causal feedback loop diagram of system dynamics[J]. Wseas Transactions on Environment & Development, 2015,11:143-154.
[7] SIMONOVIC S P. World water dynamics: global modeling of water resources [J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2002, 66(3):249.
[8] STAVE K A. A system dynamics model to facilitate public understanding of water management options in Las Vegas, Nevada [J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2003, 67(4):303-313.
[9] GUO H C, LIU L, HUANG G H, et al. A system dynamics approach for regional environmental planning and management: a study for the Lake Erhai Basin [J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2001, 61(1):93-111.
[10] 张巧显, 闵庆文. 中国水安全系统模拟及对策比较研究[J]. 水科学进展, 2002, 13(5):569-577.
[11] CHENG L. System dynamics model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity and its application [J]. Water Science and Engineering, 2010(2):144-155.
[12] 马涵玉, 黄川友, 殷彤,等. 系统动力学模型在成都市水生态承载力评估方面的应用[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2017, 15(4):101-110.
[13] 黄莉新. 江苏省水资源承载能力评价[J]. 水科学进展, 2007, 18(6):879-883.
[14] 王翠, 杨广, 何新林,等. 基于系统动力学的水资源承载力研究[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2016(9):212-215.
[15] YANG J, LEI K, KHU S, et al. Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity for Sustainable Development Based on a System Dynamics Model: A Case Study of Tieling City, China[J]. Water Resources Management, 2015,29(3):885-899.
[16] 陈成鲜, 严广乐. 我国水资源可持续发展系统动力学模型研究[J]. 上海理工大学学报, 2000, 22(2):154-159.
[17] 李林红. 滇池流域可持续发展投入产出系统动力学模型[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2002, 22(8):89-94.
[18] 陈南祥,王延辉.基于系统动力学的河南省水资源可持续利用研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2010,29(4):34-37.
[19] 王伟荣, 张玲玲, 王宗志. 基于系统动力学的区域水资源二次供需平衡分析[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2014, 12(1):47-49.
[20] 郝光玲, 王烜, 李春晖,等. 基于系统动力学的南阳市水资源供需平衡分析[J]. 水资源保护, 2015, 31(4):15-19.
[21] 高成康, 包存宽, 蒋大和,等. 基于SD的水质型缺水区水系统的模拟分析——以上海杨浦区为例[J]. 地理研究, 2007, 26(5):113-120.
[22] 何力,刘丹,黄薇.基于系统动力学的水资源供需系统模拟分析[J].人民长江,2010,41(3):38-41.
[23] 杨明杰,杨广,何新林,等.基于系统动力学的玛纳斯河灌区水资源供需平衡分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(1):174-180.
[24] 十堰市统计局.十堰市统计年鉴[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2008-2016.
[25] 十堰市水利水电局. 十堰市水资源公报[Z] . 2008-2016.