基于情景分析的杭州市机动车尾气排放控制协同效应研究
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摘要
为了研究杭州市机动车尾气排放控制措施对大气污染物和温室气体的协同减排效应,本文以2015年为基准年,估算2020年杭州市机动车常规大气污染物和温室气体排放量,通过设置8种控制措施情景,测算大气污染物和温室气体的减排量,运用弹性系数法和协同效应坐标系法分析了大气污染物和温室气体的协同效应.结果表明,在各种控制情景下,杭州市机动车大气污染物和温室气体排放量均有削减,且具有正向的协同减排效应.单一控制措施中淘汰高排放老旧车对大气污染物和温室气体排放量的减排效果最明显,协同效应突出,淘汰国Ⅲ柴油货车和推广新能源车的减排效果和协同效应次之,这3种措施是杭州市交通领域减少大气污染物排放和应对气候变化综合管理的关键措施.采取综合性措施或者结构性措施,无疑可以最大幅度削减杭州市机动车大气污染物和温室气体排放,为实现杭州市大气环境质量限期达标和碳排放达峰协同"双达"奠定基础.
To assess the effect of vehicle emission control on lowering air pollutants and greenhouse gases(GHGs) production in Hangzhou, this paper predicted the vehicle-based air pollutants and GHGs emissions of the year 2020 compare to the year 2015 under eight scenarios by using elastic coefficient method and co-benefits coordinate system method. The results show that the emissions of air pollutants and GHGs from vehicles were reduced under the various scenarios in this study, and there was positive correlation between them. Under the scenario of single control, eliminating old cars with high emissions exhibited the most significant reduction on air pollutants and GHGs, and eliminating III diesel trucks and promoting new energy vehicles came second, which were important control actions for reducing air pollutant emissions and addressing climate change. Eithor comprehensive or single action could significantly reduce the air pollutants GHG emissions from vehicles, laying a foundation for Hangzhou to achieve the dual goals of meeting the air environmental quality standard before the deadline and achieving a carbon emission peak.
To assess the effect of vehicle emission control on lowering air pollutants and greenhouse gases(GHGs) production in Hangzhou, this paper predicted the vehicle-based air pollutants and GHGs emissions of the year 2020 compare to the year 2015 under eight scenarios by using elastic coefficient method and co-benefits coordinate system method. The results show that the emissions of air pollutants and GHGs from vehicles were reduced under the various scenarios in this study, and there was positive correlation between them. Under the scenario of single control, eliminating old cars with high emissions exhibited the most significant reduction on air pollutants and GHGs, and eliminating III diesel trucks and promoting new energy vehicles came second, which were important control actions for reducing air pollutant emissions and addressing climate change. Eithor comprehensive or single action could significantly reduce the air pollutants GHG emissions from vehicles, laying a foundation for Hangzhou to achieve the dual goals of meeting the air environmental quality standard before the deadline and achieving a carbon emission peak.
引文
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Bhargava N,Gurjar B R,Mor S,et al.2018.Assessment of GHG mitigation and CDM technology in urban transport sector of Chandigarh,India[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,25(1):363-374
蔡博峰,杨朝飞,陆军,等.2017.中国城市二氧化碳排放数据集(2012)[M].北京:中国环境出版社.29-31
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程晓梅,刘永红,陈泳钊,等.2014.珠三角洲机动车排放控制措施协同效应分析[J].中国环境科学,34(6):1599-1606
董红召,徐勇斌,陈宁.2011.基于IVE模型的杭州市机动车实际行驶工况下排放因子的研究[J].汽车工程,33(12):1034-1038
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高玉冰,毛显强,Gabriel Corsetti,等.2014.城市交通大气污染物与温室气体协同控制效应评价-以乌鲁木齐市为例[J].中国环境科学,34(11):2985-2992
Geng Y,Ma Z X,Xue B,et al.2013.Co-benefit evaluation for urban public transportation sector - a case of Shenyang,China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,58(1):82-91
胡涛,田春秀,李丽平.2004.协同效应对中国气候变化的政策影响[J].环境保护,2004(9):56-58
环境保护部.2014.道路机动车大气污染物排放清单编制技术指南(试行) [EB/OL].2014-12-31.http://www.mee.gov.cn/gkml/hbb/bgg/201501/W020150107594587831090.pdf
黄成,刘娟,陈长虹,等.2012.基于实时交通信息的道路机动车动态排放清单模拟研究[J].环境科学,33(11):3725-3732
IPCC.2001.Climate Change 2001[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press
蒋春来,宋晓晖,钟悦之,等.2018.基于排污许可证的碳排放权交易体系研究[J].环境污染与防治,40(10):1198-1202
李霁友.2017.环保费改税对我国生态环境及经济发展的影响[J].管理世界,(3):170-171
Lin B Q,Xie C P.2014.Reduction potential of CO2 emissions in China′s transport industry[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,33:689-700
刘建翠.2011.中国交通运输部门节能潜力和碳排放预测[J].资源科学,34(4):640-646
毛显强,曾桉,胡涛,等.2011.技术减排措施协同控制效应评价研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,21(12):1-7
Nguyen T,Mai T.2012.Analysis of motorcyclefleet in Hanoi for estimation of air pollution emission and climate mitigation co-benefit of technology implementation[J].Atmospheric Environment,59(7):438-448
清洁空气创新中心.2016.中国空气质量管理评估报告(2016) [R].北京:中国清洁空气联盟
Ribero S K,De Abreu A A.2008.Brazilian transport initiative with GHG reductions as a co-benefit[J].Climate Policy,8(2):220-240
Saidur R,Mahlia T.2011.Impacts of energy efficiency standard on motor energy savings and emission reductions[J].Clean Techn Environ Policy,13(1):103-109
Tang J H,Chan L Y,Chan C Y,et al.2007.Characteristics and diurnal variations of nmhcs at urban,suburban,and rural sites in the pearl river delta and a remote site in south China[J].Atmospheric Environment,41(38):8620-8632
Thambiran T,Diab R D.2011.Air pollution and climate change co-benefit opportunities in the roadtransportation sector in Durban,South Africa[J].Atmospheric Environment,45 (16):2683-2689
谭琦璐,杨宏伟.2017.京津冀交通控制温室气体和污染物的协同效应分析[J].中国能源,39(4):25-31
唐伟,何平,杨强,等.2018a.基于IVE模型和大数据分析的杭州市道路移动源主要温室气体排放清单研究[J].环境科学学报,38(4):1368-1376
唐伟,杨强,黄成,等.2018b.基于大数据分析和IVE模型的杭州市机动车污染物排放变化特征研究[J].环境科学学报,38(1):71-78
王海鲲,陈长虹,黄成,等.2006.应用IVE模型计算上海市机动车污染物排放[J].环境科学学报,26(1):1-9
王虎,李孟良,乔维高.2007.一种汽车源排放模型——IVE模型简介[J].中国环境监测,23(5):78-81
王慧慧,曾维华,吴开亚.2016.上海市机动车尾气排放协同控制效应研究[J].中国环境科学,36(5):1345-1352
王金南,宁淼,严刚,等.2010.实施气候友好的大气污染防治战略[J].中国软科学,(10):28-37
王军锋,贺姝峒,李淑文,等.2017.我国省级温室气体和大气污染排放协同性及空间差异性研究[J].生态经济,33(7):156-160
Wu Y,Zhang S J,Hao J M,et al.2017.On-road vehicle emissions and their control in China:A review and outlook[J].Science of the Total Environment,574:332-349
吴琳,沈建东,冯银厂,等.2014.杭州市灰霾与非灰霾日不同粒径大气颗粒物来源解析[J].环境科学研究,27(4):373-381
谢鹏程,王文军,廖翠萍,等.2018.基于能源活动的广州市二氧化碳排放清单研究[J].生态经济,34(3):18-22
徐昶,沈建东,叶辉,等.2014.杭州黑碳气溶胶污染特性及来源研究[J].中国环境科学,34(12):3026-3033
许光清,温敏露,冯相昭,等.2014.城市道路车辆排放控制的协同效应评价[J].北京社会科学,(7):82-90
薛婕,罗宏,吕连宏,等.2012.中国主要大气污染物和温室气体的排放特征与关联性[J].资源科学,34(8):1452-1460
杨强,黄成,卢滨,等.2017.基于本地污染源调查的杭州市大气污染物排放清单研究[J].环境科学学报,37(9):3240-3254
姚志良,贺克斌,王岐东,等.2006.IVE机动车排放模型应用研究[J].环境科学,27(10):1928-1933
姚志良,张明辉,王新彤,等.2012.中国典型城市机动车排放演变趋势[J].中国环境科学,32(9):1565-1573
余艳春,虞明远.2008.我国公路营运汽车污染物排放量总量及预测[J].公路交通科技,25(6):154-158
Yu W,Pagani R,Huang L.2012.CO2 emission inventories for Chinese cities in highly urbanized areas compared with European cities [J].Energy Policy,47:298-308
郑佳佳,孙星,张牧吟,等.2015.温室气体减排与大气污染控制的协同效应—国内外研究综述[J].生态经济,31(11):133-137
周磊,王伯光,汤大钢.2011.重型柴油车对空气质量的影响及其排放的控制[J].环境科学,32(8):2177-2183
Bhargava N,Gurjar B R,Mor S,et al.2018.Assessment of GHG mitigation and CDM technology in urban transport sector of Chandigarh,India[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,25(1):363-374
蔡博峰,杨朝飞,陆军,等.2017.中国城市二氧化碳排放数据集(2012)[M].北京:中国环境出版社.29-31
蔡博峰.2012.中国城市二氧化碳排放空间特征及与二氧化硫协同治理分析[J].中国能源,34(7):33-37
程晓梅,刘永红,陈泳钊,等.2014.珠三角洲机动车排放控制措施协同效应分析[J].中国环境科学,34(6):1599-1606
董红召,徐勇斌,陈宁.2011.基于IVE模型的杭州市机动车实际行驶工况下排放因子的研究[J].汽车工程,33(12):1034-1038
樊守彬,田灵娣,张东旭,等.2015.基于实际道路交通流信息的北京市机动车排放特征[J].环境科学,36(8):2750-2757
高玉冰,毛显强,Gabriel Corsetti,等.2014.城市交通大气污染物与温室气体协同控制效应评价-以乌鲁木齐市为例[J].中国环境科学,34(11):2985-2992
Geng Y,Ma Z X,Xue B,et al.2013.Co-benefit evaluation for urban public transportation sector - a case of Shenyang,China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,58(1):82-91
胡涛,田春秀,李丽平.2004.协同效应对中国气候变化的政策影响[J].环境保护,2004(9):56-58
环境保护部.2014.道路机动车大气污染物排放清单编制技术指南(试行) [EB/OL].2014-12-31.http://www.mee.gov.cn/gkml/hbb/bgg/201501/W020150107594587831090.pdf
黄成,刘娟,陈长虹,等.2012.基于实时交通信息的道路机动车动态排放清单模拟研究[J].环境科学,33(11):3725-3732
IPCC.2001.Climate Change 2001[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press
蒋春来,宋晓晖,钟悦之,等.2018.基于排污许可证的碳排放权交易体系研究[J].环境污染与防治,40(10):1198-1202
李霁友.2017.环保费改税对我国生态环境及经济发展的影响[J].管理世界,(3):170-171
Lin B Q,Xie C P.2014.Reduction potential of CO2 emissions in China′s transport industry[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,33:689-700
刘建翠.2011.中国交通运输部门节能潜力和碳排放预测[J].资源科学,34(4):640-646
毛显强,曾桉,胡涛,等.2011.技术减排措施协同控制效应评价研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,21(12):1-7
Nguyen T,Mai T.2012.Analysis of motorcyclefleet in Hanoi for estimation of air pollution emission and climate mitigation co-benefit of technology implementation[J].Atmospheric Environment,59(7):438-448
清洁空气创新中心.2016.中国空气质量管理评估报告(2016) [R].北京:中国清洁空气联盟
Ribero S K,De Abreu A A.2008.Brazilian transport initiative with GHG reductions as a co-benefit[J].Climate Policy,8(2):220-240
Saidur R,Mahlia T.2011.Impacts of energy efficiency standard on motor energy savings and emission reductions[J].Clean Techn Environ Policy,13(1):103-109
Tang J H,Chan L Y,Chan C Y,et al.2007.Characteristics and diurnal variations of nmhcs at urban,suburban,and rural sites in the pearl river delta and a remote site in south China[J].Atmospheric Environment,41(38):8620-8632
Thambiran T,Diab R D.2011.Air pollution and climate change co-benefit opportunities in the roadtransportation sector in Durban,South Africa[J].Atmospheric Environment,45 (16):2683-2689
谭琦璐,杨宏伟.2017.京津冀交通控制温室气体和污染物的协同效应分析[J].中国能源,39(4):25-31
唐伟,何平,杨强,等.2018a.基于IVE模型和大数据分析的杭州市道路移动源主要温室气体排放清单研究[J].环境科学学报,38(4):1368-1376
唐伟,杨强,黄成,等.2018b.基于大数据分析和IVE模型的杭州市机动车污染物排放变化特征研究[J].环境科学学报,38(1):71-78
王海鲲,陈长虹,黄成,等.2006.应用IVE模型计算上海市机动车污染物排放[J].环境科学学报,26(1):1-9
王虎,李孟良,乔维高.2007.一种汽车源排放模型——IVE模型简介[J].中国环境监测,23(5):78-81
王慧慧,曾维华,吴开亚.2016.上海市机动车尾气排放协同控制效应研究[J].中国环境科学,36(5):1345-1352
王金南,宁淼,严刚,等.2010.实施气候友好的大气污染防治战略[J].中国软科学,(10):28-37
王军锋,贺姝峒,李淑文,等.2017.我国省级温室气体和大气污染排放协同性及空间差异性研究[J].生态经济,33(7):156-160
Wu Y,Zhang S J,Hao J M,et al.2017.On-road vehicle emissions and their control in China:A review and outlook[J].Science of the Total Environment,574:332-349
吴琳,沈建东,冯银厂,等.2014.杭州市灰霾与非灰霾日不同粒径大气颗粒物来源解析[J].环境科学研究,27(4):373-381
谢鹏程,王文军,廖翠萍,等.2018.基于能源活动的广州市二氧化碳排放清单研究[J].生态经济,34(3):18-22
徐昶,沈建东,叶辉,等.2014.杭州黑碳气溶胶污染特性及来源研究[J].中国环境科学,34(12):3026-3033
许光清,温敏露,冯相昭,等.2014.城市道路车辆排放控制的协同效应评价[J].北京社会科学,(7):82-90
薛婕,罗宏,吕连宏,等.2012.中国主要大气污染物和温室气体的排放特征与关联性[J].资源科学,34(8):1452-1460
杨强,黄成,卢滨,等.2017.基于本地污染源调查的杭州市大气污染物排放清单研究[J].环境科学学报,37(9):3240-3254
姚志良,贺克斌,王岐东,等.2006.IVE机动车排放模型应用研究[J].环境科学,27(10):1928-1933
姚志良,张明辉,王新彤,等.2012.中国典型城市机动车排放演变趋势[J].中国环境科学,32(9):1565-1573
余艳春,虞明远.2008.我国公路营运汽车污染物排放量总量及预测[J].公路交通科技,25(6):154-158
Yu W,Pagani R,Huang L.2012.CO2 emission inventories for Chinese cities in highly urbanized areas compared with European cities [J].Energy Policy,47:298-308
郑佳佳,孙星,张牧吟,等.2015.温室气体减排与大气污染控制的协同效应—国内外研究综述[J].生态经济,31(11):133-137
周磊,王伯光,汤大钢.2011.重型柴油车对空气质量的影响及其排放的控制[J].环境科学,32(8):2177-2183
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