中国生猪养殖业地理集聚时空特征及影响因素
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摘要
运用1996—2016年中国生猪养殖业发展相关数据,采用区位基尼系数指标测度中国生猪养殖业时空分布及其演变特征,进一步运用Moran′s I指数从空间相关性角度对生猪养殖业的地理集聚效应进行分析,并在此基础上,构建空间动态面板数据模型分析影响中国生猪养殖业地理集聚的主要因素。结果表明:中国生猪养殖业的空间集聚特征显著并呈弱化趋势,且具有一定的阶段性特征,时空分布呈"集—散—集"的变化特征。其中,1996—2005年,中国生猪养殖业空间上呈现稳中有升的集聚态势,2005—2013年,集聚态势逐渐减弱,2013—2016年,集聚现象呈现回升趋稳态势。Moran′s I指数表明具有显著的地理集聚效应,发展水平较高的省区对周边省区的辐射带动作用使省区间的差距逐渐缩小。生猪养殖业地理集聚受自然资源、经济、技术等多种要素综合影响,其中,地理因素、土地资源、城镇化率和技术水平等因素对生猪养殖业地理集聚影响较为显著。因此,各省区发展生猪养殖业应因地制宜制定规划,以市场为导向,充分挖掘资源潜力,发挥生猪养殖水平较高省区的辐射带动作用,加大技术支持力度,促进区域协调发展。
Based on the data of the development of swine breeding industry in China from 1996 to 2016 and applying the method of Gini coefficient, this paper analyzes its temporal and spatial distribution and evolution characteristics. And then, it analyzes the geographical agglomeration effect of swine breeding industry from the perspective of spatial correlation by the method of Moran's I index. On this basis, this paper builds a dynamic spatial panel data model to analyze the main factors that affect the geographical agglomeration of swine breeding industry in China. The results show that: The spatial agglomeration characteristics of swine breeding industry are significant and has a trend of getting weak,and the spatial and temporal distribution shows the agglomeration-expansion-agglomeration characteristics: the swine breeding industry has a steady rising trend of agglomeration from 1996 to 2005; and its concentration trend gradually weakened from 2005 to 2013; it shows a rising trend of agglomeration from 2013 to 2016. The Moran's I index shows that there is spatial autocorrelation in the development of swine breeding industry in China, which indicates a significant geographical agglomeration effect. Moran scatter plot furtherly explains its spillover effect in China's provinces and regions, and the provinces with high level of development have the radiation driving effect on the surrounding provinces and regions, which gradually narrows the gap between the provinces. The geographical agglomeration of swine breeding industry is influenced by many factors, such as resources, economy, technology and so on. Among them, land resources,urbanization rate and technical level have a significant influence on it. Therefore, it should make planning according to local conditions in the swine breeding industry, aim at the market, make full use of the potentiality of resource effectively play the radiation leading role of the higher swine production level in the provinces and regions, increase the technical support and promote the coordinated development of the region.
Based on the data of the development of swine breeding industry in China from 1996 to 2016 and applying the method of Gini coefficient, this paper analyzes its temporal and spatial distribution and evolution characteristics. And then, it analyzes the geographical agglomeration effect of swine breeding industry from the perspective of spatial correlation by the method of Moran's I index. On this basis, this paper builds a dynamic spatial panel data model to analyze the main factors that affect the geographical agglomeration of swine breeding industry in China. The results show that: The spatial agglomeration characteristics of swine breeding industry are significant and has a trend of getting weak,and the spatial and temporal distribution shows the agglomeration-expansion-agglomeration characteristics: the swine breeding industry has a steady rising trend of agglomeration from 1996 to 2005; and its concentration trend gradually weakened from 2005 to 2013; it shows a rising trend of agglomeration from 2013 to 2016. The Moran's I index shows that there is spatial autocorrelation in the development of swine breeding industry in China, which indicates a significant geographical agglomeration effect. Moran scatter plot furtherly explains its spillover effect in China's provinces and regions, and the provinces with high level of development have the radiation driving effect on the surrounding provinces and regions, which gradually narrows the gap between the provinces. The geographical agglomeration of swine breeding industry is influenced by many factors, such as resources, economy, technology and so on. Among them, land resources,urbanization rate and technical level have a significant influence on it. Therefore, it should make planning according to local conditions in the swine breeding industry, aim at the market, make full use of the potentiality of resource effectively play the radiation leading role of the higher swine production level in the provinces and regions, increase the technical support and promote the coordinated development of the region.
引文
[1]周清杰,侯江源.我国生猪市场价格调控中的“猪粮比价”:理论内涵与实践反思[J].北京工商大学学报:社会科学版,2017,32(5):118-126.
[2]王欢,乔娟.中国生猪生产布局变迁的经济学分析[J].经济地理,2017,37(8):129-136,215.
[3]宾幕容,覃一枝,周发明.湘江流域农户生猪养殖污染治理意愿分析[J].经济地理,2016,36(11):154-160.
[4]秦建军,武拉平,闫逢柱.产业地理集聚对产业成长的影响——基于中国农产品加工业的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2010(1):104-111.
[5] Rosenthal S S,Strange W C. Evidence on the nature and sources of agglomeration economies[J]. Handbook of Regional&Urban Economics,2004,4(4):2 119-2 171.
[6] Wu H Y C,Jack R L,Colyer D. The Northeast and Interregional Competition for Broilers[J]. Northeastern Journal of Agricultural&Resource Economics,1985,14.
[7] Gray R W. An Economic Analysis of the Impact of the Price Support Program upon the Development of the Potato Industry in the United States[J]. Journal of Farm Economics,1953,35(5):1 010-1 013.
[8] Emran M S,Shilpi F. The extent of the market and stages of agricultural specialization[C]. The World Bank,2008:1 125-1 153.
[9]李二玲,位书华,胥亚男.中国大豆种植地理集聚格局演化及其机制[J].经济经纬,2016(3):37-42.
[10]王伟新,向云,祁春节.中国水果产业地理集聚研究:时空特征与影响因素[J].经济地理,2013,33(8):97-103.
[11]吴建寨,沈辰,王盛威,等.中国蔬菜生产空间集聚演变、机制、效应及政策应对[J].中国农业科学,2015,48(8):1 641-1 649.
[12]姚成胜,李政通,王维,等.中国水产养殖业地理集聚特征及空间演化机制[J].经济地理,2016,36(9):118-127.
[13]周旭英,罗其友,屈宝香.我国生猪区域发展研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2007,28(3):41-44.
[14]张振,乔娟.中国生猪生产布局影响因素实证研究——基于省级面板数据[J].统计与信息论坛,2011,26(8):61-67.
[15]张园园,孙世民.山东省生猪生产格局及其影响因素的实证分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2014,19(1):193-199.
[16]舒畅,乔娟.我国养殖业生态足迹时空特征及脱钩效应研究——以生猪产业为例[J].生态经济,2016,32(1):148-151.
[17] Fan C C,Scott A J. Industrial Agglomeration and Development:A Survey of Spatial Economic Issues in East Asia and a Statistical Analysis of Chinese Regions[J]. Economic Geography,2003,79(3):295-319.
[18]白重恩,杜颖娟,陶志刚,等.地方保护主义及产业地区集中度的决定因素和变动趋势[J].经济研究,2004(4):29-40.
[19]贺灿飞,潘峰华.产业地理集中、产业集聚与产业集群:测量与辨识[J].地理科学进展,2007(2):1-13.
[20]赵俊伟,尹昌斌,牛敏杰.中国农业生态文明发展水平的时空差异与变动趋势[J].财贸研究,2017,28(6):47-57.
[21]王树进,陈宇峰.中国休闲农业发展的空间相关性及影响因素研究[J].农业经济问题,2013,34(9):38-45.
[22]梁小珍,刘秀丽,杨丰梅.考虑资源环境约束的我国区域生猪养殖业综合生产能力评价[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(9):2 263-2 270.
[23]虞祎,张晖,胡浩.排污补贴视角下的养殖户环保投资影响因素研究——基于沪、苏、浙生猪养殖户的调查分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(2):159-163.
[24]金书秦,韩冬梅,吴娜伟.中国畜禽养殖污染防治政策评估[J].农业经济问题,2018(3):119-126.
[25]赵俊伟,尹昌斌.青岛市畜禽粪便排放量与肥料化利用潜力分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(7):108-115.
[26]伍山林.农业劳动力流动对中国经济增长的贡献[J].经济研究,2016,51(2):97-110.
[27]周晶,陈玉萍,丁士军.中国生猪养殖业规模化影响因素研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2014,29(1):63-69.
(1)养殖规模的界定参考《中国畜牧业年鉴》对生猪养殖规模的分类,猪场年出栏50~499头的为小规模,500~9 999头为中规模,1万头以上为大规模。
(1)数据来源:中国养殖网http://www.chinabreed.com/pig/manage/2016/02/20160225687969.shtml。
[2]王欢,乔娟.中国生猪生产布局变迁的经济学分析[J].经济地理,2017,37(8):129-136,215.
[3]宾幕容,覃一枝,周发明.湘江流域农户生猪养殖污染治理意愿分析[J].经济地理,2016,36(11):154-160.
[4]秦建军,武拉平,闫逢柱.产业地理集聚对产业成长的影响——基于中国农产品加工业的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2010(1):104-111.
[5] Rosenthal S S,Strange W C. Evidence on the nature and sources of agglomeration economies[J]. Handbook of Regional&Urban Economics,2004,4(4):2 119-2 171.
[6] Wu H Y C,Jack R L,Colyer D. The Northeast and Interregional Competition for Broilers[J]. Northeastern Journal of Agricultural&Resource Economics,1985,14.
[7] Gray R W. An Economic Analysis of the Impact of the Price Support Program upon the Development of the Potato Industry in the United States[J]. Journal of Farm Economics,1953,35(5):1 010-1 013.
[8] Emran M S,Shilpi F. The extent of the market and stages of agricultural specialization[C]. The World Bank,2008:1 125-1 153.
[9]李二玲,位书华,胥亚男.中国大豆种植地理集聚格局演化及其机制[J].经济经纬,2016(3):37-42.
[10]王伟新,向云,祁春节.中国水果产业地理集聚研究:时空特征与影响因素[J].经济地理,2013,33(8):97-103.
[11]吴建寨,沈辰,王盛威,等.中国蔬菜生产空间集聚演变、机制、效应及政策应对[J].中国农业科学,2015,48(8):1 641-1 649.
[12]姚成胜,李政通,王维,等.中国水产养殖业地理集聚特征及空间演化机制[J].经济地理,2016,36(9):118-127.
[13]周旭英,罗其友,屈宝香.我国生猪区域发展研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2007,28(3):41-44.
[14]张振,乔娟.中国生猪生产布局影响因素实证研究——基于省级面板数据[J].统计与信息论坛,2011,26(8):61-67.
[15]张园园,孙世民.山东省生猪生产格局及其影响因素的实证分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2014,19(1):193-199.
[16]舒畅,乔娟.我国养殖业生态足迹时空特征及脱钩效应研究——以生猪产业为例[J].生态经济,2016,32(1):148-151.
[17] Fan C C,Scott A J. Industrial Agglomeration and Development:A Survey of Spatial Economic Issues in East Asia and a Statistical Analysis of Chinese Regions[J]. Economic Geography,2003,79(3):295-319.
[18]白重恩,杜颖娟,陶志刚,等.地方保护主义及产业地区集中度的决定因素和变动趋势[J].经济研究,2004(4):29-40.
[19]贺灿飞,潘峰华.产业地理集中、产业集聚与产业集群:测量与辨识[J].地理科学进展,2007(2):1-13.
[20]赵俊伟,尹昌斌,牛敏杰.中国农业生态文明发展水平的时空差异与变动趋势[J].财贸研究,2017,28(6):47-57.
[21]王树进,陈宇峰.中国休闲农业发展的空间相关性及影响因素研究[J].农业经济问题,2013,34(9):38-45.
[22]梁小珍,刘秀丽,杨丰梅.考虑资源环境约束的我国区域生猪养殖业综合生产能力评价[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(9):2 263-2 270.
[23]虞祎,张晖,胡浩.排污补贴视角下的养殖户环保投资影响因素研究——基于沪、苏、浙生猪养殖户的调查分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(2):159-163.
[24]金书秦,韩冬梅,吴娜伟.中国畜禽养殖污染防治政策评估[J].农业经济问题,2018(3):119-126.
[25]赵俊伟,尹昌斌.青岛市畜禽粪便排放量与肥料化利用潜力分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(7):108-115.
[26]伍山林.农业劳动力流动对中国经济增长的贡献[J].经济研究,2016,51(2):97-110.
[27]周晶,陈玉萍,丁士军.中国生猪养殖业规模化影响因素研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2014,29(1):63-69.
(1)养殖规模的界定参考《中国畜牧业年鉴》对生猪养殖规模的分类,猪场年出栏50~499头的为小规模,500~9 999头为中规模,1万头以上为大规模。
(1)数据来源:中国养殖网http://www.chinabreed.com/pig/manage/2016/02/20160225687969.shtml。