利用交叉小波技术分析三峡水库蓄排水过程对库区降雨量的影响
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摘要
三峡大坝蓄水过程对邻近区域气候的影响一直是国内外学术界广泛关注的热点问题。三峡大坝从2003年投入使用至今,水位从66 m上升至175 m,经历了3个蓄水阶段,为观测水库水位与库区降雨量相关性提供了极佳的窗口期。为了精准分辨两者在多周期多尺度的相互影响,基于三峡库区的4个国家气象观测站的历史逐日降雨数据和三峡蓄排水过程水位变化数据,进行交叉小波分析,提取能量谱、凝聚谱和相位谱,展现两类数据时频域多尺度的相关细节。结果表明,三峡大坝蓄排水过程对库区降雨有影响,第一期蓄水期最明显,表现为库区降雨年周期性相对减弱,高频模式增强;历史数据表明库区降雨主要表现为1.0 a主周期和2.0 a、4.0 a等多个次长周期;三期蓄水之后,库区降雨量的1.0 a主周期没有改变,而多个次长周期特征变化明显。交叉小波相位谱揭示水库蓄排水过程对库区降雨的人工调节和自然调节影响,前者表现为水位变化与降雨1.0 a主周期的完全反相,明显不同于蓄水之前的同相特征;后者表现为高频分量(1/128～1/32 a)的反相特征,其规模效应随大坝建成而增强。值得关注的现象是巴东站与荆州站的降雨存在3.5 a次长周期的反相特征,可能是大坝蓄水后改变了水循环的范围。
How the Three Gorges Dam impounding impact on local climate environment is a hot issue in science and engineering communities. Since the dam worked in 2003, the reservoir water level changes from 66 m up to 175 m in three stages, providing a perfect period observing the coherence of water level and rainfall. In order to diagnose their interaction in multiple periodic windows, historical water level changes of the Three Gorges Reservoir and the daily precipitation data recorded at four national weathering stations are analyzed with temporal full-scales spectra by Morlet cross wavelet analysis with power spectra, coherence spectra, and phase spectra. The results show that the obvious impact of water impounding on the reservoir rainfalls, of which the strongest impacting period occurred at the first impounding stage, causing reservoir rainfall reduction of one year period and increment of high frequencies. Historical reservoir precipitations have premier period 1.0 a,and multiple secondary longer periods, such as 2.0 a and 4.0 a. The premier period keeps after three stages, but the secondary period, 2 a, at dam area change obviously. There are two influences of reservoir impounding on reservoir rainfall in phase spectra: Artificial control and natural regulation. The former is completely antiphase at the premier period 1.0 a, which is obviously different from the inphase before the dam construction. The latter is reflected in the anti-phase of water level and rainfall in hi-frequency components at zone(1/128-1/32 a), the scale effect increases with the increasing reservoir water level. The noted fact is that the coherence 3.5 a period at Badong and Jingzhou stations antiphase, possiblyindicating the water cycle changed spatially. Besides, water-level change corresponds to rainfall in antiphase annual variations of dam's function of water control, different from their variations in-phase before the dam construction.
How the Three Gorges Dam impounding impact on local climate environment is a hot issue in science and engineering communities. Since the dam worked in 2003, the reservoir water level changes from 66 m up to 175 m in three stages, providing a perfect period observing the coherence of water level and rainfall. In order to diagnose their interaction in multiple periodic windows, historical water level changes of the Three Gorges Reservoir and the daily precipitation data recorded at four national weathering stations are analyzed with temporal full-scales spectra by Morlet cross wavelet analysis with power spectra, coherence spectra, and phase spectra. The results show that the obvious impact of water impounding on the reservoir rainfalls, of which the strongest impacting period occurred at the first impounding stage, causing reservoir rainfall reduction of one year period and increment of high frequencies. Historical reservoir precipitations have premier period 1.0 a,and multiple secondary longer periods, such as 2.0 a and 4.0 a. The premier period keeps after three stages, but the secondary period, 2 a, at dam area change obviously. There are two influences of reservoir impounding on reservoir rainfall in phase spectra: Artificial control and natural regulation. The former is completely antiphase at the premier period 1.0 a, which is obviously different from the inphase before the dam construction. The latter is reflected in the anti-phase of water level and rainfall in hi-frequency components at zone(1/128-1/32 a), the scale effect increases with the increasing reservoir water level. The noted fact is that the coherence 3.5 a period at Badong and Jingzhou stations antiphase, possiblyindicating the water cycle changed spatially. Besides, water-level change corresponds to rainfall in antiphase annual variations of dam's function of water control, different from their variations in-phase before the dam construction.
引文
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[19] Sun Weiguo,Cheng Bingyan.Application of Cross Wavelet Transformation to Analysis on Regional Climate Variations[J].Journal of Applied Meteo-rological Science,2008,19(4):479-487(孙卫国,程炳岩.交叉小波变换在区域气候分析中的应用[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(4):479-487)
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[22] Deng Ziwang,Lin Zhenshan,Zhou Xiaolan.Multiple Time Scales Analysis of Xi’an Climate Change for Last 50 Years[J].Plateau Meteorology,1997,6(1):81-93 (邓自旺,林振山,周晓兰.西安市近50 年来气候变化多时间尺度分析[J].高原气象,1997,6(1):81-93)
[23] Yao Jianqun.An Application of Continuous Wavelet Transforms to Precipitation Analysis in Shanghai During One Hundred Years[J].Meteorological Monthly,2001,27(2):20-24(姚建群.连续小波变换在上海近100年降水分析中的应用[J].气象,2001,27(2):20-24)
[24] Yi Hua,Shu Hong,Zhang Tao,et al.Applications of Morlet Wavelets in Time-Frequency Localization of Signals[J].Mathematica Applicate,2010,23(2):395-400(易华,舒红,张涛,等.Morlet小波在确定局部周期中的应用[J].应用数学,2010,23(2):395-400)
[25] Fan Qibin.Wavelet Analysis [M].Wuhan:Wuhan University Press,2008(樊启斌.小波分析[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2008)
[2] Wang J.Three Gorges Project:The Largest Water Conservancy Project in the World [J].Public Administration Development,2010,22(5):369-375
[3] Shen G,Xie Z.Three Gorges Project:Chance and Challenge [J].Science,2004,304(5 671):681
[4] Edmonds R L.The Sanxia (Three Gorges) Project:The Environmental Argument Surrounding China’s Super Dam [J].Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters,1992,2:105-125
[5] Gwynne P,Li Y Q.Yangtze Project Dammed with Taint Praise [J].Nature,1992,356(6 372):736-736
[6] Miller N L,Jin J,Tsang C.Local Climate Sensitivity of the Three Gorges Dam [J].Geophysics Research Letters,2005,86(3):101-120
[7] Zhang Hongtao,Zhu Changhan,Zhang Qiang.Numerical Modeling of Microclimate Effects Produced by the Formation of the Three Georges Reservoir [J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2004,13(2):133-137 (张洪涛,祝昌汉,张强.长江三峡水库气候效应数值模拟[J].长江流域资源与环境,2004,13(2):133-137)
[8] Yan Shaomin,Wu Guang.Probabilistic Study on Influence of Three Gorges Reservoir in China on Precipitation of Its Upstream and Downstream Regions [J].Guangxi Sciences,2012,19(2):129-133 (严少敏,吴光.中国三峡水库对上下游地区降水影响的概率研究[J].广西科学,2012,19(2):129-133)
[9] Zhang Jianyun,Wang Guoqing.Research on the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources [M].Beijing:Science Press,2007 (张建云,王国庆.气候变化对水文水资源影响研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2007)
[10] Wang Guoqing,Zhang Jianyun,Liu Jiufu,et al.The Sensitivity of Runoff to Climate Change in Different Climatic Regions in China[J].Advances in Water Science,2011,22(3):307-314 (王国庆,张建云,刘九夫,等.中国不同气候区河川径流对气候变化的敏感性[J].水科学进展,2011,22(3):307-314)
[11] Qin Dahe.The Evolution of Climate and Environment in China [M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2012 (秦大河.中国气候与环境演变[M].北京:气象出版社,2012)
[12] IPCC.Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report [M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007
[13] Committee for the Compilation of National Assessment Reports on Climate Change.National Assessment Report on Climate Change [M].Beijing:Science Press,2007 (气候变化国家评估报告编写委员会.气候变化国家评估报告[M).北京:科学出版社,2007)
[14] Sun Jialan,Lei Xiaohui,Jiang Yunzhong,et al.Variation Trend Analysis of Meteorological Variables and Runoff in Upper Reaches of Yangtze River[J].Water Resources and Power,2012,30(5):1-4 (孙甲岚,雷晓辉,蒋云钟,等.长江流域上游气温、降水及径流变化趋势分析[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(5):1-4)
[15] Li X D,Zhu Y F,Qin W H.Spatiotemporal Variations of Summer Rainfall over Eastern China During 1880-1999[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2002,19(6):1 055-1 068
[16] Yang Lu,Mei Yadong,Ye Yan,et al.Temporal Analysis of Hydrological and Meteorological Factors in Downstream of Jinsha River and Three Gorges Reach of Yangtze River[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2016,36(1):37-45 (杨璐,梅亚东,叶琰,等.金沙江下游及三峡段水文气象因子演变与响应的分析[J].水文,2016,36(1):37-45)
[17] Wu J,Gao X J,Filippo G,et al.Climate Effects of the Three Gorges Reservoir as Simulated by a High Resolution Double Nested Regional Climate Model [J].Quaternary International,2012,282:27-36
[18] Yu Dandan,Zhang Ren,Hong Mei,et al.Correlation Analysis Between the West Pacific Subtropical High and the East Asian Summer Monsoon System Based on Cross Wavelet and Wavelet Coherence [J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2007,30(6):755-769(余丹丹,张韧,洪梅,等.基于交叉小波与小波相干的西太平洋副高与东亚夏季风系统的关联性分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2007,30(6):755-769)
[19] Sun Weiguo,Cheng Bingyan.Application of Cross Wavelet Transformation to Analysis on Regional Climate Variations[J].Journal of Applied Meteo-rological Science,2008,19(4):479-487(孙卫国,程炳岩.交叉小波变换在区域气候分析中的应用[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(4):479-487)
[20] Meyers S D,Kelly B G,O’Brien J.An Introduction to Wavelet Analysis in Oceanography and Meteo-rology:With Application to the Dispersion of Yanai Waves[J].Monthly Weather Review,1993,121:2 858-2 866
[21] Torrence C,Compo G P.A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis[J].Bulletin American Meteorological Society,1998,79:61-78
[22] Deng Ziwang,Lin Zhenshan,Zhou Xiaolan.Multiple Time Scales Analysis of Xi’an Climate Change for Last 50 Years[J].Plateau Meteorology,1997,6(1):81-93 (邓自旺,林振山,周晓兰.西安市近50 年来气候变化多时间尺度分析[J].高原气象,1997,6(1):81-93)
[23] Yao Jianqun.An Application of Continuous Wavelet Transforms to Precipitation Analysis in Shanghai During One Hundred Years[J].Meteorological Monthly,2001,27(2):20-24(姚建群.连续小波变换在上海近100年降水分析中的应用[J].气象,2001,27(2):20-24)
[24] Yi Hua,Shu Hong,Zhang Tao,et al.Applications of Morlet Wavelets in Time-Frequency Localization of Signals[J].Mathematica Applicate,2010,23(2):395-400(易华,舒红,张涛,等.Morlet小波在确定局部周期中的应用[J].应用数学,2010,23(2):395-400)
[25] Fan Qibin.Wavelet Analysis [M].Wuhan:Wuhan University Press,2008(樊启斌.小波分析[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2008)