Impact of oceans on climate change in drylands
|
摘要
Drylands account for approximately 41% of the global total land area. Significant warming and rare precipitation in drylands result in a fragile ecology and deterioration of the living environment, making it more sensitive to global climate change. As an important regulator of the Earth's climate system, the oceans play a vital role in the process of climate change in drylands. In modern climate change in particular, the impact of marine activities on climate change in drylands cannot be neglected. This paper reviews the characteristics of climate change in drylands over the past 100 years, and summarizes the researches conducted on the impact of marine activities on these changes. The review focuses on the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO), El Ni?o and La Ni?a on climate change in drylands, and introduces the mechanisms by which different oceanic oscillation factors synergistically affect climate change in drylands.Studies have shown that global drylands have experienced a significant intensification in warming in the past 100 years, which shows obvious characteristics of interdecadal dry/wet variations. The characteristics of these changes are closely related to the oscillatory factors of the oceanic interdecadal scale. Different phase combinations of oceanic oscillation factors significantly change the land-sea thermal contrast, which in turn affects the westerly jet, planetary wave and blocking frequency, resulting in changes in the temperature and dry/wet characteristics of drylands. With the intensification of climate change in drylands, the impact of marine activities on these regions will reveal new characteristics in the future, which will increase the uncertainty of future climate change in drylands and intensify the impact of these drylands on global climate.
Drylands account for approximately 41% of the global total land area. Significant warming and rare precipitation in drylands result in a fragile ecology and deterioration of the living environment, making it more sensitive to global climate change. As an important regulator of the Earth's climate system, the oceans play a vital role in the process of climate change in drylands. In modern climate change in particular, the impact of marine activities on climate change in drylands cannot be neglected. This paper reviews the characteristics of climate change in drylands over the past 100 years, and summarizes the researches conducted on the impact of marine activities on these changes. The review focuses on the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO), El Ni?o and La Ni?a on climate change in drylands, and introduces the mechanisms by which different oceanic oscillation factors synergistically affect climate change in drylands.Studies have shown that global drylands have experienced a significant intensification in warming in the past 100 years, which shows obvious characteristics of interdecadal dry/wet variations. The characteristics of these changes are closely related to the oscillatory factors of the oceanic interdecadal scale. Different phase combinations of oceanic oscillation factors significantly change the land-sea thermal contrast, which in turn affects the westerly jet, planetary wave and blocking frequency, resulting in changes in the temperature and dry/wet characteristics of drylands. With the intensification of climate change in drylands, the impact of marine activities on these regions will reveal new characteristics in the future, which will increase the uncertainty of future climate change in drylands and intensify the impact of these drylands on global climate.
Drylands account for approximately 41% of the global total land area. Significant warming and rare precipitation in drylands result in a fragile ecology and deterioration of the living environment, making it more sensitive to global climate change. As an important regulator of the Earth's climate system, the oceans play a vital role in the process of climate change in drylands. In modern climate change in particular, the impact of marine activities on climate change in drylands cannot be neglected. This paper reviews the characteristics of climate change in drylands over the past 100 years, and summarizes the researches conducted on the impact of marine activities on these changes. The review focuses on the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO), El Ni?o and La Ni?a on climate change in drylands, and introduces the mechanisms by which different oceanic oscillation factors synergistically affect climate change in drylands.Studies have shown that global drylands have experienced a significant intensification in warming in the past 100 years, which shows obvious characteristics of interdecadal dry/wet variations. The characteristics of these changes are closely related to the oscillatory factors of the oceanic interdecadal scale. Different phase combinations of oceanic oscillation factors significantly change the land-sea thermal contrast, which in turn affects the westerly jet, planetary wave and blocking frequency, resulting in changes in the temperature and dry/wet characteristics of drylands. With the intensification of climate change in drylands, the impact of marine activities on these regions will reveal new characteristics in the future, which will increase the uncertainty of future climate change in drylands and intensify the impact of these drylands on global climate.
引文
Armah F A,Odoi J O,Yengoh G T,Obiri S,Yawson D O,Afrifa E K A.2010.Food security and climate change in drought-sensitive savanna zones of Ghana.Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change,16:291-306
Ault T R,George S S.2010.The magnitude of decadal and multidecadal variability in North American precipitation.J Clim,23:842-850
Bader J,Latif M.2003.The impact of decadal-scale Indian ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the North Atlantic oscillation.Geophys Res Lett,30:2169
Bichet A,Wild M,Folini D,Sch?r C.2011.Global precipitation response to changing forcings since 1870.Atmos Chem Phys,11:9961-9970
Cai W J,Cowan T,Thatcher M.2012.Rainfall reductions over Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions:The role of subtropical dry zone expansion.Sci Rep,2:702
Coelho C A S,Goddard L.2009.El Ni?o-induced tropical droughts in climate change projections.J Clim,22:6456-6476
Dai A G.2011a.Drought under global warming:A review.Wires Clim Change,2:45-65
Dai A G.2011b.Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer drought severity index during 1900-2008.J Geophys Res,116:D12115
Dai A G.2013a.Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models.Nat Clim Change,3:52-58
Dai A G.2013b.The influence of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation on US precipitation during 1923-2010.Clim Dyn,41:633-646
Dai A G,Trenberth K E,Qian T.2004.A global dataset of Palmer drought severity index for 1870-2002:Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming.J Hydrometeorol,5:1117-1130
Dai A G,Wigley T M L.2000.Global patterns of ENSO-induced precipitation.Geophys Res Lett,27:1283-1286
Delworth T,Manaba S.1993.Climate variability and land-surface processes.Adv Water Resour,16:3-20
Ding Y,Sun Y,Wang Z,Zhu Y,Song Y.2009.Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon Part II:Possible causes.Int J Climatol,29:1926-1944
Dong B,Dai A G.2015.The influence of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation on temperature and precipitation over the globe.Clim Dyn,45:2667-2681
Duan W,Song L,Li Y,Mao J.2013.Modulation of PDO on the predictability of the interannual variability of early summer rainfall over south China.J Geophys Res-Atmos,118:13008-13021
Dai A G,Zhao T B.2017.Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought,Part I:Estimates of historical drought changes.Clim Change,144:519-533
Feng S,Fu Q.2013.Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate.Atmos Chem Phys,13:10081-10094
Fu C B,Huang Y.1996.Global change in Asia(in Chinese).Clim Environm Res,1:97-112
Fu C B,Jiang Z H,Guan Z Y,He J H,Xu Z F.2008.Climate of China and East Asian Monsoon.Berlin:Springer-Verlag.1-48
Fu C B,Ma Z G.2008.Global change and regional aridification(in Chinese).Chin J Atmosp Sci,32:752-760
Fu C B,Mao H T.2017.Aridity Trend in Northern China.Singapore:World Scientific
GLP.2005.Global Land Project:Science Plan and Implementation Strategy.IGBP(International Geosphere Biosphere Program)Report No.53.In:International Human Dimensions Programme Report No.19.Stockholm:IGBP Secretariat
Giannini A,Saravanan R,Chang P.2003.Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales.Science,302:1027-1030
Giannini A,Biasutti M,Verstraete M M.2008.A climate model-based review of drought in the Sahel:Desertification,the re-greening and climate change.Glob Planet Change,64:119-128
Greve P,Orlowsky B,Mueller B,Sheffield J,Reichstein M,Seneviratne SI.2014.Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land.Nat Geosci,7:716-721
Gu G J,Adler R F.2013.Interdecadal variability/long-term changes in global precipitation patterns during the past three decades:Global warming and/or pacific decadal variability?Clim Dyn,40:3009-3022
Gu G,Adler R F.2015.Spatial patterns of global precipitation change and variability during 1901-2010.J Clim,28:4431-4453
Guan X D,Huang J P,Guo R X,Yu H P,Lin P,Zhang Y T.2015a.The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere.Sci Rep,5:12669
Guan X D,Huang J P,Guo R X,Yu H,Lin P,Zhang Y.2015b.Role of radiatively forced temperature changes in enhanced semi-arid warming in the cold season over east Asia.Atmos Chem Phys,15:13777-13786
Guan X D,Huang J P,Guo R X.2017.Changes in aridity in response to the global warming hiatus.J Meteorol Res,31:117-125
Hulme M.1996.Recent climatic change in the world’s drylands.Geophys Res Lett,23:61-64
Halpert M S,Ropelewski C F.1992.Surface-temperature patterns associated with the southern oscillation.J Clim,5:577-593
Hoerling M,Eischeid J,Perlwitz J.2010.Regional precipitation trends:Distinguishing natural variability from anthropogenic forcing.J Clim,23:2131-2145
Hoerling M,Hurrell J,Eischeid J,Phillips A.2006.Detection and attribution of twentieth-century northern and southern African rainfall change.J Clim,19:3989-4008
Hoerling M,Kumar A.2003.The perfect ocean for drought.Science,299:691-694
Horel J D,Wallace J M.1981.Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation.Mon Weather Rev,109:813-829
Hu K M,Huang G,Wu R G,Wang L.2018.Structure and dynamics of a wave train along the wintertime Asian jet and its impact on East Asian climate.Clim Dyn,51:4123-4137
Hu Q,Feng S.2012.AMO-and ENSO-driven summertime circulation and precipitation variations in North America.J Clim,25:6477-6495
Hua L J,Ma Z G.2009.The evolution of dry and wet periods in Asia and North America and its relationship with SSTA(in Chinese).Chin JGeophys,52:1184-1196
Huang G.2006a.Global climate change phenomenon associated with the droughts in North China(in Chinese).Clim Environ Res,11:28-37
Huang G,Hu K,Xie S P.2010.Strengthening of tropical Indian Ocean teleconnection to the Northwest Pacific since the Mid-1970s:An atmospheric GCM study.J Clim,23:5294-5304
Huang G,Liu Y,Huang R.2011.The interannual variability of summer rainfall in the arid and semiarid regions of Northern China and its association with the northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection.Adv Atmos Sci,28:257-268
Huang J P,Guan X D,Ji F.2012.Enhanced cold-season warming in semiarid regions.Atmos Chem Phys,12:5391-5398
Huang J P,Ji M X,Xie Y K,Wang S S,He Y L,Ran J J.2016.Global semi-arid climate change over last 60 years.Clim Dyn,46:1131-1150
Huang J P,Li Y,Fu C B,Chen F H,Fu Q,Dai A,Shinoda M,Ma Z,Guo W,Li Z,Zhang L,Liu Y,Yu H,He Y,Xie Y,Guan X,Ji M,Lin L,Wang S,Yan H,Wang G.2017a.Dryland climate change:Recent progress and challenges.Rev Geophys,55:719-778
Huang J P,Xie Y K,Guan X D,Li D D,Ji F.2017b.The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere.Clim Dyn,48:429-446
Huang J P,Yu H P,Dai A,Wei Y,Kang L T.2017c.Drylands face potential threat under 2°C global warming target.Nat Clim Change,7:417-422
Huang J P,Higuchi K,Shabbar A.1998.The relationship between the North Atlantic oscillation and El Ni?o-Southern oscillation.Geophys Res Lett,25:2707-2710
Huang R H.2006b.Progresses in research on the formation mechanism and prediction theory of severe climatic disasters in China(in Chinese).Adv Earth Sci,21:565-575
Huang R H,Sun F.1992.Impacts of the tropical western Pacific on the East Asian Summer Monsoon.J Meteorol Soc Jpn,70:243-256
Huang R H,Wu Y F.1989.The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism.Adv Atmos Sci,6:21-32
Huang R H,Chen W,Yang B L,Renhe Z.2004.Recent advances in studies of the interaction between the East Asian winter and summer monsoons and ENSO cycle.Adv Atmos Sci,21:407-424
Huang R H,Wei Z G,Li S S,Zhou L T.2006.The interdecadal variations of climate and hydrology in the upper reach and source area of the yellow river and their impact on water resources in North China(in Chinese).Clim Environ Res,11:245-258
Huang R H,Xu Y H,Zhou L T.1999.The interdecadal variation of summer precipitations in China and the drought trend in North China(in Chinese).Plateau Meteorol,18:465-476
IPCC.2007.Climate Change.The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC.2013.Climate Change.The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Knight J R,Folland C K,Scaife A A.2006.Climate impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.Geophys Res Lett,33:L17706
Kosaka Y,Nakamura H.2006.Structure and dynamics of the summertime Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern.Q J R Meteorol Soc,132:2009-2030
Kosaka Y,Nakamura H,Watanabe M,Kimoto M.2009.Analysis on the dynamics of a wave-like teleconnection pattern along the summertime Asian jet based on a reanalysis dataset and climate model simulations.JMeteorol Soc Jpn,87:561-580
Kosaka Y,Nakamura H.2010.Mechanisms of meridional teleconnection observed between a summer monsoon system and a subtropical anticyclone.Part I:The Pacific-Japan pattern.J Clim,23:5085-5108
Kosaka Y,Xie S P,Nakamura H.2011.Dynamics of interannual variability in summer precipitation over East Asia.J Clim,24:5435-5453
Kosaka Y,Xie S P.2013.Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.Nature,501:403-407
Lambert F H,Allen M R.2009.Are Changes in global precipitation constrained by the tropospheric energy budget?J Clim,22:499-517
Li C Y,Zhu J H,Sun Z B.2002.The study interdecadal climate variation(in Chinese).Clim Environ Res,7:209-219
Li J W,Liu Z F,He C,Tu W,Sun Z X.2016.Are the drylands in northern china sustainable?A perspective from ecological footprint dynamics from 1990 to 2010.Sci Total Environ,553:223-231
Li Y,Huang J,Ji M,Ran J.2015.Dryland expansion in Northern China from 1948 to 2008.Adv Atmos Sci,32:870-876
Lu J,Delworth T L.2005.Oceanic forcing of the late 20th century Sahel drought.Geophys Res Lett,32:L22706
Lyon B.2004.The strength of El Ni?o and the spatial extent of tropical drought.Geophys Res Lett,31:L21204
Maestre F T,Escolar C,de Guevara M L,Quero J L,Lázaro R,DelgadoBaquerizo M,Ochoa V,Berdugo M,Gozalo B,Gallardo A.2013.Changes in biocrust cover drive carbon cycle responses to climate change in drylands.Glob Change Biol,19:3835-3847
Ma Z G.2007.The interdecadal trend and shift of dry/wet over the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).Chin Sci Bull,52:2130-2139
Ma Z G,Fu C B.2003.Interannual characteristics of the surface hydrological variables over the arid and semi-arid areas of Northern China.Global Planet Change,37:189-200
Ma Z,Fu C.2006.Some evidence of drying trend over northern China from 1951 to 2004.Chin Sci Bull,51:2913-2925
Ma Z G,Fu C B.2007.Evidences of drying trend in the global during the latter half of 20th century and their relationship with large scale climate background.Sci China Earth Sci,50:776-788
Ma Z G,Shao L J.2006.Relationship between dry/wet variation and the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)in northern China during the last 100years.Chin J Atmos Sci,30:464-474
Mantua N J,Hare S R,Zhang Y,Wallace J M,Francis R C.1997.A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,78:1069-1079
Mantua N J,Hare S R.2002.The Pacific decadal oscillation.J Oceanogr,58:35-44
McCabe G J,Palecki M A,Betancourt J L.2004.Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,101:4136-4141
Mo K C,Schemm J K E,Yoo S H.2009.Influence of ENSO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on drought over the United States.JClim,22:5962-5982
Narisma G T,Foley J A,Licker R,Ramankutty N.2007.Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century.Geophys Res Lett,34:L06710
Nicholson S E,Tucker C J,Ba M B.1998.Desertification,drought,and surface vegetation:An example from the West African Sahel.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,79:815-829
Nicholson S E,Some B,Kone B.2000.An analysis of recent rainfall conditions in West Africa,including the rainy seasons of the 1997 El Ni?o and the 1998 La Ni?a years.J Clim,13:2628-2640
Nicholson S E,Grist J P.2001.A conceptual model for understanding rainfall variability in the West African Sahel on interannual and interdecadal timescales.Int J Climatol,21:1733-1757
Nitta T.1986.Long-term variations of cloud amount in the western Pacific region.J Meteorol Soc Jpn,64:373-390
Nitta T.1987.Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation.J Meteorol Soc Jpn,65:373-390
Rietkerk M,Dekker S C,de Ruiter P C,van de Koppel J.2004.Selforganized patchiness and catastrophic shifts in ecosystems.Science,305:1926-1929
Qian C,Zhou T J.2014.Multidecadal variability of North China aridity and its relationship to PDO during 1900-2010.J Clim,27:1210-1222
Rasmusson E M,Arkin P A.1993.A global view of large-scale precipitation variability.J Clim,6:1495-1522
Reynolds J F,Smith D M S,Lambin E F,Turner B L,Mortimore M,Batterbury S P J,Downing T E,Dowlatabadi H,Fernández R J,Herrick J E,Huber-Sannwald E,Jiang H,Leemans R,Lynam T,Maestre F T,Ayarza M,Walker B.2007.Global desertification:Building a science for dryland development.Science,316:847-851
Rogers J C.1984.The association between the North Atlantic oscillation and the Southern oscillation in the Northern hemisphere.Mon Weather Rev,112:1999-2015
Ropelewski C F,Halpert M S.1987.Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Ni?o/Southern oscillation.Mon Weather Rev,115:1606-1626
Scheffer M,Carpenter S,Foley J A,Folke C,Walker B.2001.Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems.Nature,413:591-596
Schubert S,Gutzler D,Wang H,Dai A,Delworth T,Deser C,Findell K,Fu R,Higgins W,Hoerling M,Kirtman B,Koster R,Kumar A,Legler D,Lettenmaier D,Lyon B,Magana V,Mo K,Nigam S,Pegion P,Phillips A,Pulwarty R,Rind D,Ruiz-Barradas A,Schemm J,Seager R,Stewart R,Suarez M,Syktus J,Ting M,Wang C,Weaver S,Zeng N.2009.AUS CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns:Overview and results.J Clim,22:5251-5272
Seager R,Naik N,Baethgen W,Robertson A,Kushnir Y,Nakamura J,Jurburg S.2010.Tropical oceanic causes of interannual to multidecadal precipitation variability in Southeast South America over the past century.J Clim,23:5517-5539
Shukla J,Wallace J M.1983.Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response to equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies.JAtmos Sci,40:1613-1630
Shi Y F,Shen Y P,Hu R J.2002.Preliminary study on signal,impact and foreground of climatic shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in Northwest China(in Chinese).J Glaciol Geocryol,24:219-226
Si D,Ding Y.2016.Oceanic forcings of the interdecadal variability in East Asian summer rainfall.J Clim,29:7633-7649
Spinoni J,Vogt J,Naumann G,Carrao H,Barbosa P.2015.Towards identifying areas at climatological risk of desertification using the K?ppen-Geiger classification and FAO aridity index.Int J Climatol,35:2210-2222
Straus D M,Shukla J.2002.Does ENSO force the PNA?J Clim,15:2340-2358
Sutton R T,Hodson D L R.2005.Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate.Science,309:115-118
Ting M,Wang H.1997.Summertime U.S.precipitation variability and its relation to Pacific Sea surface temperature.J Clim,10:1853-1873
Ting M F,Kushnir Y,Seager R,Li C H.2011.Robust features of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and its climate impacts.Geophys Res Lett,38:351-365
Trenberth K.2011.Changes in precipitation with climate change.Clim Res,47:123-138
Trenberth K E,Branstator G W,Karoly D,Kumar A,Lau N C,Ropelewski C.1998.Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures.JGeophys Res,103:14291-14324
Trenberth K E,Dai A,van der Schrier G,Jones P D,Barichivich J,Briffa KR,Sheffield J.2014.Global warming and changes in drought.Nat Clim Change,4:17-22
Trenberth K E,Hurrell J W.1994.Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific.Clim Dyn,9:303-319
White R P,Nackoney J.2003.Drylands,People and Ecosystem Goods and Services.Washington:World Resources Institute
Wang B,Wu R G,Fu X H.2000.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:How does ENSO affect East Asian climate?J Clim,13:1517-1536
Wang L,Huang G,Chen W,Zhou W,Wang W Q.2018.Wet-to-dry shift over Southwest China in 1994 tied to the warming of tropical warm pool.Clim Dyn,51:3111-3123
Wang S W,Zhu J H.1999.A review of overseas study on interdecadal variability(in Chinese).Acta Meteorol Sin,57:376-384
Wu G X,Liu Y M,Wang T M,Wan R J,Liu X,Li W P,Wang Z Z,Zhang Q,Duan A M,Liang X Y.2007.The influence of mechanical and thermal forcing by the Tibetan Plateau on Asian climate.J Hydrometeorol,8:770-789
Wu G X,Liu Y M,Yu J J,Zhu X Y,Ren R C.2008.Modulation of land-sea distribution on air-sea interaction and formation of subtropical anticyclones.Chin J Atmos Sci,32:720-740
Wu R G,Chen L T.1992.Interannual variation of the PNA flow pattern and impacts of extratropical and tropical SSTs(in Chinese).Chin J Atmos Sci,16:583-591
Xie S P,Hu K,Hafner J,Tokinaga H,Du Y,Huang G,Sampe T.2009.Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-Western Pacific climate during the summer following El Ni?o.J Clim,22:730-747
Xie S P,Kosaka Y,Du Y,Hu K,Chowdary J S,Huang G.2016.Indowestern Pacific Ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer:A review.Adv Atmos Sci,33:411-432
Xu B L.2016.The Variation Characteristics of Global and Regional Land Precipitation on Multiple Time Scale and Their Relationship with SST(in Chinese).Beijing:Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xu B L,Ma Z G.2017.Decadal characteristics of global land annual precipitation variation on multiple spatial scales(in Chinese).Chin JAtmos Sci,41:593-602
Yan Z W,Ji J J,Ye D Z.1990.Summer climatic jump in northern hemisphere during the 1960s I:Precipitatipn and temperature(in Chinese).Sci China Earth Sci,1:97-103
Yang F,Lau K M.2004.Trend and variability of China precipitation in spring and summer:Linkage to sea-surface temperatures.Int J Climatol,24:1625-1644
Yang Q,Ma Z G,Fan X G,Yang Z L,Xu Z F,Wu P L.2017.Decadal modulation of precipitation patterns over Eastern China by sea surface temperature anomalies.J Clim,30:7017-7033
Zhang R,Delworth T L.2006.Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes.Geophys Res Lett,33:L17712
Zhang Q Y,Chen L T.1991.Variations of dryness and wetness in China during 1951-1980(in Chinese).Chin J Atmos Sci,15:72-81
Zhou L,Chen H,Hua W,Dai Y,Wei N.2016.Mechanisms for stronger warming over drier ecoregions observed since 1979.Clim Dyn,47:2955-2974
Zhu Y L,Wang T,Ma J H.2016.Influence of internal decadal variability on the summer rainfall in Eastern China as simulated by CCSM4.Adv Atmos Sci,33:706-714
Ault T R,George S S.2010.The magnitude of decadal and multidecadal variability in North American precipitation.J Clim,23:842-850
Bader J,Latif M.2003.The impact of decadal-scale Indian ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the North Atlantic oscillation.Geophys Res Lett,30:2169
Bichet A,Wild M,Folini D,Sch?r C.2011.Global precipitation response to changing forcings since 1870.Atmos Chem Phys,11:9961-9970
Cai W J,Cowan T,Thatcher M.2012.Rainfall reductions over Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions:The role of subtropical dry zone expansion.Sci Rep,2:702
Coelho C A S,Goddard L.2009.El Ni?o-induced tropical droughts in climate change projections.J Clim,22:6456-6476
Dai A G.2011a.Drought under global warming:A review.Wires Clim Change,2:45-65
Dai A G.2011b.Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer drought severity index during 1900-2008.J Geophys Res,116:D12115
Dai A G.2013a.Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models.Nat Clim Change,3:52-58
Dai A G.2013b.The influence of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation on US precipitation during 1923-2010.Clim Dyn,41:633-646
Dai A G,Trenberth K E,Qian T.2004.A global dataset of Palmer drought severity index for 1870-2002:Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming.J Hydrometeorol,5:1117-1130
Dai A G,Wigley T M L.2000.Global patterns of ENSO-induced precipitation.Geophys Res Lett,27:1283-1286
Delworth T,Manaba S.1993.Climate variability and land-surface processes.Adv Water Resour,16:3-20
Ding Y,Sun Y,Wang Z,Zhu Y,Song Y.2009.Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon Part II:Possible causes.Int J Climatol,29:1926-1944
Dong B,Dai A G.2015.The influence of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation on temperature and precipitation over the globe.Clim Dyn,45:2667-2681
Duan W,Song L,Li Y,Mao J.2013.Modulation of PDO on the predictability of the interannual variability of early summer rainfall over south China.J Geophys Res-Atmos,118:13008-13021
Dai A G,Zhao T B.2017.Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought,Part I:Estimates of historical drought changes.Clim Change,144:519-533
Feng S,Fu Q.2013.Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate.Atmos Chem Phys,13:10081-10094
Fu C B,Huang Y.1996.Global change in Asia(in Chinese).Clim Environm Res,1:97-112
Fu C B,Jiang Z H,Guan Z Y,He J H,Xu Z F.2008.Climate of China and East Asian Monsoon.Berlin:Springer-Verlag.1-48
Fu C B,Ma Z G.2008.Global change and regional aridification(in Chinese).Chin J Atmosp Sci,32:752-760
Fu C B,Mao H T.2017.Aridity Trend in Northern China.Singapore:World Scientific
GLP.2005.Global Land Project:Science Plan and Implementation Strategy.IGBP(International Geosphere Biosphere Program)Report No.53.In:International Human Dimensions Programme Report No.19.Stockholm:IGBP Secretariat
Giannini A,Saravanan R,Chang P.2003.Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales.Science,302:1027-1030
Giannini A,Biasutti M,Verstraete M M.2008.A climate model-based review of drought in the Sahel:Desertification,the re-greening and climate change.Glob Planet Change,64:119-128
Greve P,Orlowsky B,Mueller B,Sheffield J,Reichstein M,Seneviratne SI.2014.Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land.Nat Geosci,7:716-721
Gu G J,Adler R F.2013.Interdecadal variability/long-term changes in global precipitation patterns during the past three decades:Global warming and/or pacific decadal variability?Clim Dyn,40:3009-3022
Gu G,Adler R F.2015.Spatial patterns of global precipitation change and variability during 1901-2010.J Clim,28:4431-4453
Guan X D,Huang J P,Guo R X,Yu H P,Lin P,Zhang Y T.2015a.The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere.Sci Rep,5:12669
Guan X D,Huang J P,Guo R X,Yu H,Lin P,Zhang Y.2015b.Role of radiatively forced temperature changes in enhanced semi-arid warming in the cold season over east Asia.Atmos Chem Phys,15:13777-13786
Guan X D,Huang J P,Guo R X.2017.Changes in aridity in response to the global warming hiatus.J Meteorol Res,31:117-125
Hulme M.1996.Recent climatic change in the world’s drylands.Geophys Res Lett,23:61-64
Halpert M S,Ropelewski C F.1992.Surface-temperature patterns associated with the southern oscillation.J Clim,5:577-593
Hoerling M,Eischeid J,Perlwitz J.2010.Regional precipitation trends:Distinguishing natural variability from anthropogenic forcing.J Clim,23:2131-2145
Hoerling M,Hurrell J,Eischeid J,Phillips A.2006.Detection and attribution of twentieth-century northern and southern African rainfall change.J Clim,19:3989-4008
Hoerling M,Kumar A.2003.The perfect ocean for drought.Science,299:691-694
Horel J D,Wallace J M.1981.Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation.Mon Weather Rev,109:813-829
Hu K M,Huang G,Wu R G,Wang L.2018.Structure and dynamics of a wave train along the wintertime Asian jet and its impact on East Asian climate.Clim Dyn,51:4123-4137
Hu Q,Feng S.2012.AMO-and ENSO-driven summertime circulation and precipitation variations in North America.J Clim,25:6477-6495
Hua L J,Ma Z G.2009.The evolution of dry and wet periods in Asia and North America and its relationship with SSTA(in Chinese).Chin JGeophys,52:1184-1196
Huang G.2006a.Global climate change phenomenon associated with the droughts in North China(in Chinese).Clim Environ Res,11:28-37
Huang G,Hu K,Xie S P.2010.Strengthening of tropical Indian Ocean teleconnection to the Northwest Pacific since the Mid-1970s:An atmospheric GCM study.J Clim,23:5294-5304
Huang G,Liu Y,Huang R.2011.The interannual variability of summer rainfall in the arid and semiarid regions of Northern China and its association with the northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection.Adv Atmos Sci,28:257-268
Huang J P,Guan X D,Ji F.2012.Enhanced cold-season warming in semiarid regions.Atmos Chem Phys,12:5391-5398
Huang J P,Ji M X,Xie Y K,Wang S S,He Y L,Ran J J.2016.Global semi-arid climate change over last 60 years.Clim Dyn,46:1131-1150
Huang J P,Li Y,Fu C B,Chen F H,Fu Q,Dai A,Shinoda M,Ma Z,Guo W,Li Z,Zhang L,Liu Y,Yu H,He Y,Xie Y,Guan X,Ji M,Lin L,Wang S,Yan H,Wang G.2017a.Dryland climate change:Recent progress and challenges.Rev Geophys,55:719-778
Huang J P,Xie Y K,Guan X D,Li D D,Ji F.2017b.The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere.Clim Dyn,48:429-446
Huang J P,Yu H P,Dai A,Wei Y,Kang L T.2017c.Drylands face potential threat under 2°C global warming target.Nat Clim Change,7:417-422
Huang J P,Higuchi K,Shabbar A.1998.The relationship between the North Atlantic oscillation and El Ni?o-Southern oscillation.Geophys Res Lett,25:2707-2710
Huang R H.2006b.Progresses in research on the formation mechanism and prediction theory of severe climatic disasters in China(in Chinese).Adv Earth Sci,21:565-575
Huang R H,Sun F.1992.Impacts of the tropical western Pacific on the East Asian Summer Monsoon.J Meteorol Soc Jpn,70:243-256
Huang R H,Wu Y F.1989.The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism.Adv Atmos Sci,6:21-32
Huang R H,Chen W,Yang B L,Renhe Z.2004.Recent advances in studies of the interaction between the East Asian winter and summer monsoons and ENSO cycle.Adv Atmos Sci,21:407-424
Huang R H,Wei Z G,Li S S,Zhou L T.2006.The interdecadal variations of climate and hydrology in the upper reach and source area of the yellow river and their impact on water resources in North China(in Chinese).Clim Environ Res,11:245-258
Huang R H,Xu Y H,Zhou L T.1999.The interdecadal variation of summer precipitations in China and the drought trend in North China(in Chinese).Plateau Meteorol,18:465-476
IPCC.2007.Climate Change.The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC.2013.Climate Change.The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Knight J R,Folland C K,Scaife A A.2006.Climate impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.Geophys Res Lett,33:L17706
Kosaka Y,Nakamura H.2006.Structure and dynamics of the summertime Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern.Q J R Meteorol Soc,132:2009-2030
Kosaka Y,Nakamura H,Watanabe M,Kimoto M.2009.Analysis on the dynamics of a wave-like teleconnection pattern along the summertime Asian jet based on a reanalysis dataset and climate model simulations.JMeteorol Soc Jpn,87:561-580
Kosaka Y,Nakamura H.2010.Mechanisms of meridional teleconnection observed between a summer monsoon system and a subtropical anticyclone.Part I:The Pacific-Japan pattern.J Clim,23:5085-5108
Kosaka Y,Xie S P,Nakamura H.2011.Dynamics of interannual variability in summer precipitation over East Asia.J Clim,24:5435-5453
Kosaka Y,Xie S P.2013.Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.Nature,501:403-407
Lambert F H,Allen M R.2009.Are Changes in global precipitation constrained by the tropospheric energy budget?J Clim,22:499-517
Li C Y,Zhu J H,Sun Z B.2002.The study interdecadal climate variation(in Chinese).Clim Environ Res,7:209-219
Li J W,Liu Z F,He C,Tu W,Sun Z X.2016.Are the drylands in northern china sustainable?A perspective from ecological footprint dynamics from 1990 to 2010.Sci Total Environ,553:223-231
Li Y,Huang J,Ji M,Ran J.2015.Dryland expansion in Northern China from 1948 to 2008.Adv Atmos Sci,32:870-876
Lu J,Delworth T L.2005.Oceanic forcing of the late 20th century Sahel drought.Geophys Res Lett,32:L22706
Lyon B.2004.The strength of El Ni?o and the spatial extent of tropical drought.Geophys Res Lett,31:L21204
Maestre F T,Escolar C,de Guevara M L,Quero J L,Lázaro R,DelgadoBaquerizo M,Ochoa V,Berdugo M,Gozalo B,Gallardo A.2013.Changes in biocrust cover drive carbon cycle responses to climate change in drylands.Glob Change Biol,19:3835-3847
Ma Z G.2007.The interdecadal trend and shift of dry/wet over the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).Chin Sci Bull,52:2130-2139
Ma Z G,Fu C B.2003.Interannual characteristics of the surface hydrological variables over the arid and semi-arid areas of Northern China.Global Planet Change,37:189-200
Ma Z,Fu C.2006.Some evidence of drying trend over northern China from 1951 to 2004.Chin Sci Bull,51:2913-2925
Ma Z G,Fu C B.2007.Evidences of drying trend in the global during the latter half of 20th century and their relationship with large scale climate background.Sci China Earth Sci,50:776-788
Ma Z G,Shao L J.2006.Relationship between dry/wet variation and the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)in northern China during the last 100years.Chin J Atmos Sci,30:464-474
Mantua N J,Hare S R,Zhang Y,Wallace J M,Francis R C.1997.A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,78:1069-1079
Mantua N J,Hare S R.2002.The Pacific decadal oscillation.J Oceanogr,58:35-44
McCabe G J,Palecki M A,Betancourt J L.2004.Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,101:4136-4141
Mo K C,Schemm J K E,Yoo S H.2009.Influence of ENSO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on drought over the United States.JClim,22:5962-5982
Narisma G T,Foley J A,Licker R,Ramankutty N.2007.Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century.Geophys Res Lett,34:L06710
Nicholson S E,Tucker C J,Ba M B.1998.Desertification,drought,and surface vegetation:An example from the West African Sahel.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,79:815-829
Nicholson S E,Some B,Kone B.2000.An analysis of recent rainfall conditions in West Africa,including the rainy seasons of the 1997 El Ni?o and the 1998 La Ni?a years.J Clim,13:2628-2640
Nicholson S E,Grist J P.2001.A conceptual model for understanding rainfall variability in the West African Sahel on interannual and interdecadal timescales.Int J Climatol,21:1733-1757
Nitta T.1986.Long-term variations of cloud amount in the western Pacific region.J Meteorol Soc Jpn,64:373-390
Nitta T.1987.Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation.J Meteorol Soc Jpn,65:373-390
Rietkerk M,Dekker S C,de Ruiter P C,van de Koppel J.2004.Selforganized patchiness and catastrophic shifts in ecosystems.Science,305:1926-1929
Qian C,Zhou T J.2014.Multidecadal variability of North China aridity and its relationship to PDO during 1900-2010.J Clim,27:1210-1222
Rasmusson E M,Arkin P A.1993.A global view of large-scale precipitation variability.J Clim,6:1495-1522
Reynolds J F,Smith D M S,Lambin E F,Turner B L,Mortimore M,Batterbury S P J,Downing T E,Dowlatabadi H,Fernández R J,Herrick J E,Huber-Sannwald E,Jiang H,Leemans R,Lynam T,Maestre F T,Ayarza M,Walker B.2007.Global desertification:Building a science for dryland development.Science,316:847-851
Rogers J C.1984.The association between the North Atlantic oscillation and the Southern oscillation in the Northern hemisphere.Mon Weather Rev,112:1999-2015
Ropelewski C F,Halpert M S.1987.Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Ni?o/Southern oscillation.Mon Weather Rev,115:1606-1626
Scheffer M,Carpenter S,Foley J A,Folke C,Walker B.2001.Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems.Nature,413:591-596
Schubert S,Gutzler D,Wang H,Dai A,Delworth T,Deser C,Findell K,Fu R,Higgins W,Hoerling M,Kirtman B,Koster R,Kumar A,Legler D,Lettenmaier D,Lyon B,Magana V,Mo K,Nigam S,Pegion P,Phillips A,Pulwarty R,Rind D,Ruiz-Barradas A,Schemm J,Seager R,Stewart R,Suarez M,Syktus J,Ting M,Wang C,Weaver S,Zeng N.2009.AUS CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns:Overview and results.J Clim,22:5251-5272
Seager R,Naik N,Baethgen W,Robertson A,Kushnir Y,Nakamura J,Jurburg S.2010.Tropical oceanic causes of interannual to multidecadal precipitation variability in Southeast South America over the past century.J Clim,23:5517-5539
Shukla J,Wallace J M.1983.Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response to equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies.JAtmos Sci,40:1613-1630
Shi Y F,Shen Y P,Hu R J.2002.Preliminary study on signal,impact and foreground of climatic shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in Northwest China(in Chinese).J Glaciol Geocryol,24:219-226
Si D,Ding Y.2016.Oceanic forcings of the interdecadal variability in East Asian summer rainfall.J Clim,29:7633-7649
Spinoni J,Vogt J,Naumann G,Carrao H,Barbosa P.2015.Towards identifying areas at climatological risk of desertification using the K?ppen-Geiger classification and FAO aridity index.Int J Climatol,35:2210-2222
Straus D M,Shukla J.2002.Does ENSO force the PNA?J Clim,15:2340-2358
Sutton R T,Hodson D L R.2005.Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate.Science,309:115-118
Ting M,Wang H.1997.Summertime U.S.precipitation variability and its relation to Pacific Sea surface temperature.J Clim,10:1853-1873
Ting M F,Kushnir Y,Seager R,Li C H.2011.Robust features of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and its climate impacts.Geophys Res Lett,38:351-365
Trenberth K.2011.Changes in precipitation with climate change.Clim Res,47:123-138
Trenberth K E,Branstator G W,Karoly D,Kumar A,Lau N C,Ropelewski C.1998.Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures.JGeophys Res,103:14291-14324
Trenberth K E,Dai A,van der Schrier G,Jones P D,Barichivich J,Briffa KR,Sheffield J.2014.Global warming and changes in drought.Nat Clim Change,4:17-22
Trenberth K E,Hurrell J W.1994.Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific.Clim Dyn,9:303-319
White R P,Nackoney J.2003.Drylands,People and Ecosystem Goods and Services.Washington:World Resources Institute
Wang B,Wu R G,Fu X H.2000.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:How does ENSO affect East Asian climate?J Clim,13:1517-1536
Wang L,Huang G,Chen W,Zhou W,Wang W Q.2018.Wet-to-dry shift over Southwest China in 1994 tied to the warming of tropical warm pool.Clim Dyn,51:3111-3123
Wang S W,Zhu J H.1999.A review of overseas study on interdecadal variability(in Chinese).Acta Meteorol Sin,57:376-384
Wu G X,Liu Y M,Wang T M,Wan R J,Liu X,Li W P,Wang Z Z,Zhang Q,Duan A M,Liang X Y.2007.The influence of mechanical and thermal forcing by the Tibetan Plateau on Asian climate.J Hydrometeorol,8:770-789
Wu G X,Liu Y M,Yu J J,Zhu X Y,Ren R C.2008.Modulation of land-sea distribution on air-sea interaction and formation of subtropical anticyclones.Chin J Atmos Sci,32:720-740
Wu R G,Chen L T.1992.Interannual variation of the PNA flow pattern and impacts of extratropical and tropical SSTs(in Chinese).Chin J Atmos Sci,16:583-591
Xie S P,Hu K,Hafner J,Tokinaga H,Du Y,Huang G,Sampe T.2009.Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-Western Pacific climate during the summer following El Ni?o.J Clim,22:730-747
Xie S P,Kosaka Y,Du Y,Hu K,Chowdary J S,Huang G.2016.Indowestern Pacific Ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer:A review.Adv Atmos Sci,33:411-432
Xu B L.2016.The Variation Characteristics of Global and Regional Land Precipitation on Multiple Time Scale and Their Relationship with SST(in Chinese).Beijing:Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xu B L,Ma Z G.2017.Decadal characteristics of global land annual precipitation variation on multiple spatial scales(in Chinese).Chin JAtmos Sci,41:593-602
Yan Z W,Ji J J,Ye D Z.1990.Summer climatic jump in northern hemisphere during the 1960s I:Precipitatipn and temperature(in Chinese).Sci China Earth Sci,1:97-103
Yang F,Lau K M.2004.Trend and variability of China precipitation in spring and summer:Linkage to sea-surface temperatures.Int J Climatol,24:1625-1644
Yang Q,Ma Z G,Fan X G,Yang Z L,Xu Z F,Wu P L.2017.Decadal modulation of precipitation patterns over Eastern China by sea surface temperature anomalies.J Clim,30:7017-7033
Zhang R,Delworth T L.2006.Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes.Geophys Res Lett,33:L17712
Zhang Q Y,Chen L T.1991.Variations of dryness and wetness in China during 1951-1980(in Chinese).Chin J Atmos Sci,15:72-81
Zhou L,Chen H,Hua W,Dai Y,Wei N.2016.Mechanisms for stronger warming over drier ecoregions observed since 1979.Clim Dyn,47:2955-2974
Zhu Y L,Wang T,Ma J H.2016.Influence of internal decadal variability on the summer rainfall in Eastern China as simulated by CCSM4.Adv Atmos Sci,33:706-714