海绵城市精细化格点预报应用效果分析
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摘要
利用沣西新城海绵城市精细化格点预报产品与目前国内外常用的EC-thin、Japan、GRAPES、GRAPES_RAFS等数值预报模式产品,对2017年以来陕西省西咸新区沣西新城区域内不同天气背景下发生的3次不同类型降水以及高温天气过程进行分析,通过秦都钓台、鄠邑大王、长安马王3个区域站降水量以及气温实况与格点预报分时段对比检验,评估海绵城市精细化基础格点背景场产品预报效果。结果表明:在降水量预报上,海绵城市精细化预报产品体现出明显优于GRAPES、SLGRESS、GRAPES_RAFS模式预报结果;在降水发展趋势预报上,海绵城市精细化预报产品以及其他模式预报结果均能体现出实况降水的峰线型,降水发展趋势预报效果较好;在高温天气预报上,海绵城市精细化格点预报产品、EC-thin模式预报结果基本与实况吻合,气温差值均小于3℃,而GRAPES模式与Japan模式预报结果最差。
Based on the fine grid point forecast products of Fengxi New City Sponge City and the commonly used numerical forecast model products such as EC-thin, Japan, GRAPES and GRAPES_RAFS at home and abroad, an analysis was conducted of the three different types of precipitation and high temperature weather processes in Fengxi New District of Xixian New District of Shaanxi Province under different weather conditions in 2017. The forecasting effect of basic grid point background field products in the sponge city was evaluated through precipitation and temperature and grid point forecast time-separated comparison test in the three regional stations of Diaotai in Qindu,Dawang in Hu County, Mawang in Chang'an. The results show that the fine forecast products of the sponge city are obviously better than those of GRAPES, SLGRESS and GRAPES_RAFS models in precipitation forecasting, that the fine forecast products of the sponge city and other models can reflect the peak pattern of real precipitation, and that the forecast effect of precipitation development trend is better in high temperature weather forecasting. The results of fine grid forecast products and EC-thin model for the sponge city are basically in agreement with the actual situation. The temperature difference is less than 3℃, while the results of GRAPES model and Japan model are the worst.
Based on the fine grid point forecast products of Fengxi New City Sponge City and the commonly used numerical forecast model products such as EC-thin, Japan, GRAPES and GRAPES_RAFS at home and abroad, an analysis was conducted of the three different types of precipitation and high temperature weather processes in Fengxi New District of Xixian New District of Shaanxi Province under different weather conditions in 2017. The forecasting effect of basic grid point background field products in the sponge city was evaluated through precipitation and temperature and grid point forecast time-separated comparison test in the three regional stations of Diaotai in Qindu,Dawang in Hu County, Mawang in Chang'an. The results show that the fine forecast products of the sponge city are obviously better than those of GRAPES, SLGRESS and GRAPES_RAFS models in precipitation forecasting, that the fine forecast products of the sponge city and other models can reflect the peak pattern of real precipitation, and that the forecast effect of precipitation development trend is better in high temperature weather forecasting. The results of fine grid forecast products and EC-thin model for the sponge city are basically in agreement with the actual situation. The temperature difference is less than 3℃, while the results of GRAPES model and Japan model are the worst.
引文
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[2]陆燕,陈文,景博.浅谈气象服务在海绵城市建设中的作用[J].科技风,2017(5):281.
[3]束方勇.海绵城市理念下的热岛效应生成机制与治理策略[C]//持续发展理性规划--2017中国城市规划年会论文集.北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2017.
[4]端义宏.中央气象台天气预报服务业务的过去、现在和将来[J].气象,2010,36(7):5-11.
[5]崔锦,周晓珊,张爱忠,等.天气学检验在东北区域数值模式秋冬季降水预报中的应用[J].气象与环境学报,2009,25(4):17-21.
[6]肖红茹,王灿伟,周秋雪,等.T639、ECMWF细网格模式对2012年5-8月四川盆地降水预报的天气学检验[J].高原山地气象研究,2013,33(1):80-85.
[7]付冬雪,王婷婷,段明国,等.几种常用数值模式对吉林省冷涡暴雨预报检验[J].气象灾害防御,2016,23(1):5-8.
[8]任宏昌.2017年6-8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,43(11):1439-1445.
[9]黄艳,裴江文.一次乌山阻高控制的喀什连阴雪多种模式预报能力对比[J].青海气象,2012,57(7):33-37.
[10]庄照荣,薛纪善,李兴良,等.GRAPES全球模式的模式误差估计[J].大气科学,2010,34(3):591-598.