“人口红利”、劳动者利益与我国经济转型——基于马克思经济学理论的分析
|
摘要
"人口红利"是由西方学者提出的一个概念。从马克思经济学视角分析,"人口红利"源于劳动力的价格与价值趋于一致的时滞,在量上是劳动力的价格与价值的差额。由于这一差额被资本家所占有,劳动者利益和资本家利益相互对立,经济增长与劳动者利益之间存在静态矛盾。在动态分析中,"人口红利"在促进经济增长的同时,也在一定程度改善了劳动者利益。"人口红利"消失,实现经济增长要求向"创新红利"时期的转变,但同时也要兼顾劳动者利益。新时代我国经济转型,是由"人口红利"时期向"创新红利"与"分享红利"交融时期转变。实现这一转变需要规避中等收入陷阱、养老金缺口等相关问题,化解中国经济转型的风险;需要主动适应中国经济的新常态,积极进行供给侧结构性改革;需要践行共享发展理念,为"创新红利"模式的发展注入持续驱动力。
From the perspective of Marx's economics, "demographic dividend" stems from the time lag between labor price and labor value when they are tending to be consistent, and in terms of quantity, it is the difference between the two. Since this difference is pocketed by capitalists, there is a contradiction between the interests of laborers and those of capitalists, and there is a static contradiction between economic growth and the interests of laborers. In dynamic analysis, "demographic dividend" has also improved the interests of workers while promoting economic growth. When "demographic dividend" disappears, the realization of economic growth requires a transition to the "innovation dividend" period, but this needs to take into account the interests of workers. In the new era, China's economic transformation is in a transition from the "demographic dividend" period to the "innovation dividend" and "sharing dividends". To achieve this transformation, we need to avoid the middle-income trap, the pension gap and other related issues and to eliminate China's economic transformation risk. Moreover, we need to actively adapt to the new normal of the new era and actively carry out supply-side structural reform. Furthermore, we need to practice the concept of shared development and inject a continuous driving force into the "innovation dividend" model.
From the perspective of Marx's economics, "demographic dividend" stems from the time lag between labor price and labor value when they are tending to be consistent, and in terms of quantity, it is the difference between the two. Since this difference is pocketed by capitalists, there is a contradiction between the interests of laborers and those of capitalists, and there is a static contradiction between economic growth and the interests of laborers. In dynamic analysis, "demographic dividend" has also improved the interests of workers while promoting economic growth. When "demographic dividend" disappears, the realization of economic growth requires a transition to the "innovation dividend" period, but this needs to take into account the interests of workers. In the new era, China's economic transformation is in a transition from the "demographic dividend" period to the "innovation dividend" and "sharing dividends". To achieve this transformation, we need to avoid the middle-income trap, the pension gap and other related issues and to eliminate China's economic transformation risk. Moreover, we need to actively adapt to the new normal of the new era and actively carry out supply-side structural reform. Furthermore, we need to practice the concept of shared development and inject a continuous driving force into the "innovation dividend" model.
引文
[1]Andrew Mason,“Population and Asian Economic Miracle”,Asia-Pacific Population & Policy,1997,43(11),pp.1- 4.
[2]Bloom,D.E.,Williamson,J.U.,“Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia”,The World Bank Economic Review,1998,12(3),pp.419-455.
[3]UNEPA,State of World Population Report 1998,ch2.,1998.
[4]Higgins M,Williamson J G.,“Age structure dynamics in Asia and dependence on foreign capital”,Population and Development Review,1997,23(2),pp.261-293;蔡昉:《人口转变,人口红利与刘易斯转折点》,《经济研究》2012年第4期。
[5]Macunovich D J.,“Relative cohort size and inequality in the United States”,The American Economic Review,1998,88(2),pp.259-264;张国旺、王孝松:《计划生育政策是否促进了中国经济增长?——基于教育人力资本视角的理论和经验研究》,《中南财经政法大学学报》2014年第3期。
[6][7][8]马克思、恩格斯:《马克思恩格斯文集》(第5卷),北京:人民出版社,2009年,第199、714、707页。
[9]林毅夫、蔡昉、李周:《比较优势与发展战略——对“东亚奇迹”的再解释》,《中国社会科学》1999年第5期;王德文、蔡昉、张学辉:《人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应——论中国增长可持续性的人口因素》,《人口研究》2004年第5期;Choudhry M.T.,Elhorst J.P.,“Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in China,India and Pakistan”,Economic Systems,2010,34(3),pp.218-236.
[10]王延中:《社会保障绿皮书:中国社会保障发展报告(2012)》,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2012年。
[11]人力资源和社会保障部社会保险事业管理中心:《中国社会保险发展年度报告2016》,北京:中国劳动社会保障出版社,2017年。
[12]曹远征等:《重塑国家资产负债能力》,《财经》2012年第15期。
[13]习近平:《习近平关于全面建成小康社会论述摘编》,北京:中央文献出版社,2016年,第19页。
[14][16][17]习近平:《决胜全面建成小康社会夺取新时代中国特色社会主义伟大胜利——在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上的报告》,北京:人民出版社,2017年,第31、30、21页。
[15]《中央经济工作会议在北京举行习近平李克强作重要讲话》,《人民日报》2017年12月21日。
[18]《十八大以来重要文献选编》(中),北京:中央文献出版社,2016年,第793页。
[2]Bloom,D.E.,Williamson,J.U.,“Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia”,The World Bank Economic Review,1998,12(3),pp.419-455.
[3]UNEPA,State of World Population Report 1998,ch2.,1998.
[4]Higgins M,Williamson J G.,“Age structure dynamics in Asia and dependence on foreign capital”,Population and Development Review,1997,23(2),pp.261-293;蔡昉:《人口转变,人口红利与刘易斯转折点》,《经济研究》2012年第4期。
[5]Macunovich D J.,“Relative cohort size and inequality in the United States”,The American Economic Review,1998,88(2),pp.259-264;张国旺、王孝松:《计划生育政策是否促进了中国经济增长?——基于教育人力资本视角的理论和经验研究》,《中南财经政法大学学报》2014年第3期。
[6][7][8]马克思、恩格斯:《马克思恩格斯文集》(第5卷),北京:人民出版社,2009年,第199、714、707页。
[9]林毅夫、蔡昉、李周:《比较优势与发展战略——对“东亚奇迹”的再解释》,《中国社会科学》1999年第5期;王德文、蔡昉、张学辉:《人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应——论中国增长可持续性的人口因素》,《人口研究》2004年第5期;Choudhry M.T.,Elhorst J.P.,“Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in China,India and Pakistan”,Economic Systems,2010,34(3),pp.218-236.
[10]王延中:《社会保障绿皮书:中国社会保障发展报告(2012)》,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2012年。
[11]人力资源和社会保障部社会保险事业管理中心:《中国社会保险发展年度报告2016》,北京:中国劳动社会保障出版社,2017年。
[12]曹远征等:《重塑国家资产负债能力》,《财经》2012年第15期。
[13]习近平:《习近平关于全面建成小康社会论述摘编》,北京:中央文献出版社,2016年,第19页。
[14][16][17]习近平:《决胜全面建成小康社会夺取新时代中国特色社会主义伟大胜利——在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上的报告》,北京:人民出版社,2017年,第31、30、21页。
[15]《中央经济工作会议在北京举行习近平李克强作重要讲话》,《人民日报》2017年12月21日。
[18]《十八大以来重要文献选编》(中),北京:中央文献出版社,2016年,第793页。