海南岛蒸发量的变化特征及其影响因子分析
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摘要
利用海南岛18个气象观测站1966—2001年逐日20cm口径小型蒸发皿蒸发量及气象要素资料,通过数理统计方法分析了海南岛年和四季的蒸发量变化特征及气象因子对蒸发量的影响。结果表明:从时间上看,海南岛年蒸发量变化呈波动式下降,蒸发量的减少主要出现在春季,冬季和夏季次之。从空间上看,年蒸发量呈东北少、西南多的分布,其大值区主要集中在西南部,小值区主要集中在东北部和中部地区。M-K检验说明年与春冬两季蒸发量的变化呈下降趋势且在1994年前后发生突变。影响蒸发量变化的因子中,日照时数和风速是造成蒸发量减小的主要因子,降水量的影响仅次于风速和日照时数,而气温不是造成海南岛蒸发量减小的主要因子,相对湿度可能是海南岛的蒸发量减小的影响因子。
Based on the daily data of 20-cm evaporating pans as well as other meteorological factors of 18 automatic meteorological observation stations from 1966 to 2001 over Hainan Island,changes in pan evaporation and their causes are analyzed by the methods of ArcGIS and the mathematical statistics.The results show that the annual evaporation of Hainan Island showed a fluctuating decline,and the decrease of annual evaporation mainly occurred in spring,winter and summer.The annual evaporation was less in the northeast and greater in the southwest.The large value areas were mainly concentrated in the southwest,while the smaller ones were mainly concentrated in the northeast and middle areas.The M-K test confirms that annual evaporation had significantly decreasing trends and the significant mutation year was about1994.Among the change factors affecting evaporation,the sunshine duration and wind speed were the main factors that caused the decrease of evaporation.The influence of precipitation on the evaporation of Hainan Island was second only to the wind speed and sunshine hours.The temperature was not the main factor for decreasing evaporation,and humidity might be the influence factor of the of Hainan Island decreasing evaporation.
Based on the daily data of 20-cm evaporating pans as well as other meteorological factors of 18 automatic meteorological observation stations from 1966 to 2001 over Hainan Island,changes in pan evaporation and their causes are analyzed by the methods of ArcGIS and the mathematical statistics.The results show that the annual evaporation of Hainan Island showed a fluctuating decline,and the decrease of annual evaporation mainly occurred in spring,winter and summer.The annual evaporation was less in the northeast and greater in the southwest.The large value areas were mainly concentrated in the southwest,while the smaller ones were mainly concentrated in the northeast and middle areas.The M-K test confirms that annual evaporation had significantly decreasing trends and the significant mutation year was about1994.Among the change factors affecting evaporation,the sunshine duration and wind speed were the main factors that caused the decrease of evaporation.The influence of precipitation on the evaporation of Hainan Island was second only to the wind speed and sunshine hours.The temperature was not the main factor for decreasing evaporation,and humidity might be the influence factor of the of Hainan Island decreasing evaporation.
引文
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[35]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.
[36]韩军彩,张秉祥,高祺,等.石家庄蒸发皿蒸发量的变化特征及其影响因子分析[J].干旱气象,2009,27(4):340-345.
[37]张学伦.蒸发的气候特征及其预报方法[J].山东气象,1990(3):20-22.
[38]邱新法,刘昌明,曾燕.黄河流域近40年蒸发皿蒸发量的气候变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(4):437-442.
[39]郭军,任国玉.天津地区近40年日照时数变化特征及其影响因素[J].气象科技,2006,34(4):415-420.
[40]Peterson T C,Golubev V S,Groisman P Y.Evaporation losing its strength[J].Nature,1995,377:687-688.
[41]Cohen S,Stanhill G.Evaporative climate changes at Bet-Dagan,Israel,1964-1998[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteology,2002,111(2):83-91.
[42]Chattopadhyay N,Hulme M.Evaporation and potential evapotranspiration in India under conditions of recent and future climate change[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteology,1997,87:55-72.
[43]Thomes A.Spatial and temporal characteristics of potential evapotranspiration trends over China[J].International Journal of Climatology,2000,20:381-396.
[44]盛裴轩,毛节泰,李建国,等.大气物理学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2003:19-22.
[45]张克新,潘少明,曹立国.1961~2010年河西地区平均风速时空变化趋势分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(11):1404-1408.
[2]秦大河,Stocker T.IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.
[3]张婷婷,章新平,吴华武,等.湘江流域蒸发皿蒸发量的变化趋势及原因分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):35-42.
[4]Roderick M L,Rotstayn L D,Farquhar G D,et al.On the attribution of changing pan evaporation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34(34):251-270.
[5]Shen Yanjun,Liu Changming,Liu Min,et al.Change in pan evaporation over the past 50years in the arid region of China[J].Hydrological Processes,2010,24(2):225-231.
[6]Padmakumari B,Jaswal A K,Goswami B N.Decrease in evaporation over the Indian monsoon region:implication on regional hydrological cycle[J].Climatic Change,2013,121(4):787-799.
[7]Roderick M L,Farquhar G D.Changes in Australian pan evaporation from 1970to 2002[J].International Journal of Climatology,2004,24(9):1077-1090.
[8]Donald H B,Nicile M H.Trend in evaporation for Canadian Prairies[J].Journal of Hydrology,2007,336:61-73.
[9]Cerald S,Markus M.Evaporative climate change in the British Isles[J].International Journal of Climatology,2008,28:1127-1137.
[10]Roderick M L,Farquhar G D.Changes in New Zealand pan evaporation since the 1970s[J].International Journal of Climatology,2005,25:2031-2039.
[11]Brutsaert W,Parlange M B.Hydrologic cycle explains the evaporation paradox[J].Nature,1998,396:30.
[12]祁添垚,张强,王月,等.1960~2005年中国蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势及其影响因素分析[J].地理科学,2015,35(12):1559-1606.
[13]左洪超,李栋梁,胡隐樵,等.近40a中国气候变化趋势及其同蒸发皿观测的蒸发量变化的关系[J].科学通报,2005,50(11):1125-1130.
[14]Ohmura A,Wild M.Is the hydrological cycle accelerating?[J].Science,2002,298:1345-1346.
[15]孙岚,吴国雄.陆面蒸散对气候变化的影响[J].中国科学,D辑,2001,31(1):59-69.
[16]刘敏,沈彦俊,曾燕,等.近50年中国蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势及原因[J].地理学报,2009,64(3):259-269.
[17]刘波,马柱国,丁钰国.中国北方近45年蒸发变化的特征及与环境的关系[J].高原气象,2006,25(5):840-848.
[18]苗运玲,卓世新,杨艳玲,等.新疆哈密市近50a蒸发量变化特征及影响因子[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1):95-106.
[19]陈伏龙,冯平,吴泽斌.三工河流域平原区蒸发量变化特征及影响因素[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(1):45-53.
[20]王冰,余锦华,林修栋,等.烟台市蒸发量变化趋势及影响因子[J].气象科技,2015,43(6):1127-1141.
[21]买苗,火焰,项瑛,等.1960~2012年江苏地区蒸发量变化及影响因子分析[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(5):134-140.
[22]杨东,郭盼盼,易凤佳,等.甘南州近35年蒸发量时空演变特征及对环境的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(6):147-153.
[23]邓芳莲,妙娟利.关中地区蒸发量变化特征分析[J].陕西气象,2017(6):28-31.
[24]祁栋林,李晓东,肖宏斌,等.近50a三江源地区蒸发量的变化特征及其影响因子分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(9):1613-1620.
[25]孙瑞,吴志祥,陈帮乾,等.近55年海南岛气候要素时空分布与变化趋势[J].气象研究与应用,2016,37(2):1-8.
[26]张黎明,魏志远,漆智平.近30年海南不同地区降雨量和蒸发量分布特征研究[J].中国农学通报,2006,22(4):403-407.
[27]吴文娟,王刚,黄丕新,等.近50a海口市降水量与蒸发量变化[J].气象研究与应用,2009,30(1):19-22.
[28]林正扬,唐海荣.永兴1981~2010年蒸发特征及其影响因子相关性分析[J].气象研究与应用,2012,33(4):27-31.
[29]肖伟军,熊亚丽,简茂球.西沙蒸发量的时间变化特征及与日照时间和近地面风速的关系[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2007,46(5):121-128.
[30]张建雄.永兴岛蒸发量分析与计算[J].海洋预报,2003,20(2):61-66.
[31]张建雄.永暑礁蒸发量分析与推算[J].海洋通报,2002,21(4):85-90.
[32]盖钧镒.试验统计方法[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2000:42-47,172-175.
[33]黄嘉佑,李庆祥.气象数据统计分析方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2015:61.
[34]庄晓翠,张林梅,李海花.新疆阿勒泰地区20cm蒸发皿蒸发量的变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):53-58.
[35]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.
[36]韩军彩,张秉祥,高祺,等.石家庄蒸发皿蒸发量的变化特征及其影响因子分析[J].干旱气象,2009,27(4):340-345.
[37]张学伦.蒸发的气候特征及其预报方法[J].山东气象,1990(3):20-22.
[38]邱新法,刘昌明,曾燕.黄河流域近40年蒸发皿蒸发量的气候变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(4):437-442.
[39]郭军,任国玉.天津地区近40年日照时数变化特征及其影响因素[J].气象科技,2006,34(4):415-420.
[40]Peterson T C,Golubev V S,Groisman P Y.Evaporation losing its strength[J].Nature,1995,377:687-688.
[41]Cohen S,Stanhill G.Evaporative climate changes at Bet-Dagan,Israel,1964-1998[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteology,2002,111(2):83-91.
[42]Chattopadhyay N,Hulme M.Evaporation and potential evapotranspiration in India under conditions of recent and future climate change[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteology,1997,87:55-72.
[43]Thomes A.Spatial and temporal characteristics of potential evapotranspiration trends over China[J].International Journal of Climatology,2000,20:381-396.
[44]盛裴轩,毛节泰,李建国,等.大气物理学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2003:19-22.
[45]张克新,潘少明,曹立国.1961~2010年河西地区平均风速时空变化趋势分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(11):1404-1408.