全球陆地气候气象及水文灾害死亡人口时空格局及影响因素分析(1965-2016年)
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摘要
选取1965-2016年全球气候、气象、水文3类灾害灾情数据,对其灾次、灾害人口死亡率格局、致灾因子的区域差异与气候变化的关系进行了系统的分析,并探究了灾害人口死亡率的影响要素。结果表明:(1)时间上,3类灾害总灾次呈逐年增加趋势,平均每次灾害人口死亡率逐年下降;(2)空间上,人口死亡率较高的国家多为发展中国家,且发展中国家水文类灾害灾次占比以及死亡人口占比最大,发达国家主要以气象类灾害为主;(3) 3类灾害发生灾次的区域差异及其变化与气候变化的区域差异有一定关系。全球气候变湿趋势带的洪水-滑坡-风暴总灾次的逐年增长速度比气候变干趋势带更快,气候波动增强区分别对应的3种灾害比气候波动减弱区增长速度更快;(4) 3类灾害的人口死亡率与该地区的3类灾害灾次和经济社会发展水平有关,年均3类灾害灾次与区域GDP水平对人口死亡率的影响最为重要。
This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of the hazards and mortality,selecting the global climatological,meteorological,hydrological disaster data from 1965-2016. The paper explored the relationship between regional differences of hazards and climate change,further,the influencing factor of mortality were analyzed as well. The results showed that:( 1) the total number of the three types of hazards showed an increasing tendency in time,while the mortality per hazard was decreasing year by year.( 2) The frequency and deaths of hydrological hazard had the highest proportion in developing countries with high mortality,while the developed countries were predominantly affected by meteorological hazards.( 3) The annual frequency of flood-landslide-storm in climate wetting trend zone has grown faster than that in climate drying trend zone; moreover,the hazards corresponding to the precipitation/temperature enhanced fluctuation zone has grown faster than that in weakened zone.( 4) The impact of the three types of disasters on mortality was related to the climate fluctuation and the level of economic and social development. The annual frequency of hazards and GDP level were the most important factors in the mortality.
This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of the hazards and mortality,selecting the global climatological,meteorological,hydrological disaster data from 1965-2016. The paper explored the relationship between regional differences of hazards and climate change,further,the influencing factor of mortality were analyzed as well. The results showed that:( 1) the total number of the three types of hazards showed an increasing tendency in time,while the mortality per hazard was decreasing year by year.( 2) The frequency and deaths of hydrological hazard had the highest proportion in developing countries with high mortality,while the developed countries were predominantly affected by meteorological hazards.( 3) The annual frequency of flood-landslide-storm in climate wetting trend zone has grown faster than that in climate drying trend zone; moreover,the hazards corresponding to the precipitation/temperature enhanced fluctuation zone has grown faster than that in weakened zone.( 4) The impact of the three types of disasters on mortality was related to the climate fluctuation and the level of economic and social development. The annual frequency of hazards and GDP level were the most important factors in the mortality.
引文
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[19] Güneralp B,I·nci Güneralp,Liu Y. Changing global patterns of urban exposure to flood and drought hazards[J]. Global Environmental Change,2015,31:217-225.
[20]孙劭.全球多尺度气候变化区域分异规律及区划研究[D].北京:北京师范大学,2016.SUN Shao. Study on Global Multi-scale Regional Differentiation Patterns and Regionalization of Climte Change[D]. Beijing:Beijing Normal University,2016.(in Chinese)
[21]岳谦厚,王承吉.临汾城市化若干指数分析[C]∥万新平,渡边惇.城市史研究,天津市:天津社会科学院出版社,2002:489-498.YUE Qianhou,WANG Chengji. Analysis of several indexes of urbanization in Linfen[C]∥WAN Xinping,DU Bianchun. Urban History Research. Tianjin:Tianjin Academy of Social Sciences Publishing Group,2002,489-498.(in Chinese)
[2]史培军.灾害风险科学[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2016:23-35.SHI Peijun. Disaster Risk Science[M]. Beijing:Beijing Normal Univerity Publishing Group,2016:23-35.(in Chinese)
[3]廖永丰,赵飞,王志强,等. 2000-2011年中国自然灾害灾情空间分布格局分析[J].灾害学,2013,28(4):55-60.LIAO Yongfeng,ZHAO Fei,WANG Zhiqiang,et al. Spatial pattern analysis of natural disasters in China from 2000 to 2011[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2013,28(4):55-60.(in Chinese)
[4]王静爱,史培军,朱骊.中国主要自然致灾因子的区域分异[J].地理学报,1994,49(1):18-26.WANG Jingai,SHI Peijun,ZHU Li. A research on regional distribution of major natural hazards in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,1994,49(1):18-26.(in Chinese)
[5]刘毅,杨宇.历史时期中国重大自然灾害时空分异特征[J].地理学报,2012,67(3):291-300.LIU Yi,YANG Yu. Spatial distribution of major natural disasters of China in historical period[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(3):291-300.(in Chinese)
[6]袁艺,马玉玲.近30年我国自然灾害灾情时间分布特征分析[J].灾害学,2011,26(3):65-68.YUAN Yi,MA Yuling. Analysis on temporal distribution characteristics of natural disaster losses in China in the recent three decades[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2011,26(3):65-64.(in Chinese)
[7]赵飞,汪洋,刘南江,等. 2000-2012年我国自然灾害人口损失情况特征分析[J].灾害学,2013,28(4):139-142.ZHAO Fei,WANG Yang,LIU Nanjiang,et al. Characteristics of life losses in natural disasters in China during 2000-2012[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2013,28(4):139-142.(in Chinese)
[8]郑远长.全球自然灾害概述[J].中国减灾,2000,10(1):14-19.ZHENG Yuanchang. Overview of global natural disasters[J]. Disaster Reduction in China,2000,10(1):14-19.(in Chinese)
[9] Han W,LIANG C,Jiang B,et al. Major natural disasters in China,1985-2014:occurrence and damages[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research&Public Health,2016,13(11):1118.
[10]吴吉东,傅宇,张洁,等. 1949—2013年中国气象灾害灾情变化趋势分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(9):1520-1530.WU Jidong,FU Yu,ZHANG Jie,et al. Meteorological disaster trend analysis in China:1949-2013[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(9):1520-1530.(in Chinese)
[11] Hu P,Zhang Q,Shi P,et al. Flood-induced mortality across the globe:spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2018,643:171-182.
[12] Jonkman S N. Global perspectives on loss of human life caused by floods[J]. Natural Hazards,2005,34(2):151-175.
[13] Borden K A,Cutter S L. Spatial patterns of natural hazards mortality in the United States[J]. International Journal of Health Geographics,2008,7(1):64.
[14] Peduzzi P,Dao H,Herold C,et al. Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards:the disaster risk index[J]. Natural Hazards&Earth System Sciences,2009,9(4):1149-1159.
[15] Zhang N,Huang H. Resilience analysis of countries under disasters based on multisource data[J]. Risk Analysis,2017,38(13):31-42.
[16] Guha-Sapir D,Hoyois Ph.,Wallemacq P,et al. Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2016:The Numbers and Trends[R]. Brussels:CRED,2016.
[17] UN-ICSU. Integrated Research on Disaster Risk. Peril Classification and Hazard Glossary(IRDR DATA Publication No. 1)[R]. Beijing:Integrated Research on Disaster Risk,2014.
[18]史培军.四论灾害系统研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):1-7.SHI Peijun. Theory and practice on disaster system research in a fourth time[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,14(6):1-7.(in Chinese)
[19] Güneralp B,I·nci Güneralp,Liu Y. Changing global patterns of urban exposure to flood and drought hazards[J]. Global Environmental Change,2015,31:217-225.
[20]孙劭.全球多尺度气候变化区域分异规律及区划研究[D].北京:北京师范大学,2016.SUN Shao. Study on Global Multi-scale Regional Differentiation Patterns and Regionalization of Climte Change[D]. Beijing:Beijing Normal University,2016.(in Chinese)
[21]岳谦厚,王承吉.临汾城市化若干指数分析[C]∥万新平,渡边惇.城市史研究,天津市:天津社会科学院出版社,2002:489-498.YUE Qianhou,WANG Chengji. Analysis of several indexes of urbanization in Linfen[C]∥WAN Xinping,DU Bianchun. Urban History Research. Tianjin:Tianjin Academy of Social Sciences Publishing Group,2002,489-498.(in Chinese)
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