京津冀协同发展政策的宏观经济效应考察
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摘要
文章从京津冀协同发展和人口结构变迁的角度出发,构建世代交叠的可计算一般均衡模型对京津冀地区的经济政策影响进行考察。京津冀协同发展政策最大程度地抑制了北京、天津的经济发展,同时也最大程度地加快了河北省经济发展步伐。这一政策对京津冀地区的消费比例影响较大,同时,京津冀所有居民的福利在未来会因京津冀协同发展政策的实施逐步提升。
This paper establishes an OLE-CGE model to investigate the impacts of economic policies in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from the perspective of coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and demographic transition.The coordinated development policy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region inhibits the economic development of Beijing and Tianjin to a great extent, and meanwhile maximally accelerates the economic development in Hebei Province. In general, this policy has a great impact on the consumption proportion in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and at the same time, the welfare of all residents in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will be gradually improved in the future due to the implementation of the coordinated development policy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
This paper establishes an OLE-CGE model to investigate the impacts of economic policies in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from the perspective of coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and demographic transition.The coordinated development policy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region inhibits the economic development of Beijing and Tianjin to a great extent, and meanwhile maximally accelerates the economic development in Hebei Province. In general, this policy has a great impact on the consumption proportion in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and at the same time, the welfare of all residents in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will be gradually improved in the future due to the implementation of the coordinated development policy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
引文
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[2]Auerbach A J,Kotlikoff L J,Hagemann R P,et al.The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population[J].Oecd,1989,
[3]Fehr H.Pension Reform During the Demographic Transition[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,2000,102(3).
[4]Kotlikoff L J,Smetters K,Walliser J.Mitigating America's Demographic Dilemma by Pre-funding Social Security[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2007,54(2).
[5]Park S,Hewings G J D.Does a Change in Retirement Age Affect a Regional Economy?Evidence From the Chicago Economy[EB/OL].2007.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237533541 Does a Change in Retirement Age Affect a Regional Economy Evidence from the Chicago Economy.
[6]Park S,Hewings G J D.Aging and the Regional Economy:Simulation Results From the Chicago CGE Model[EB/OL].2007.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228433732 Retirement Exodus and Its Impacts on Regional Economies Simulation Results from the Chicago CGE model
[7]Park S,Hewings G J D.Immigration,Aging,and the Regional Economy[J].Cityscape,2009,11(3).
[8]Park S.Demographic Changes and Regional Economy Simulation Result from the Chicago CGE Model[D].Urbana:University of Illinois at Urbana-Champain,2007.
[9]李洪心.可计算的一般均衡模型--建模与仿真[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2008.
[10]王永华.人口老龄化的宏观经济效应--OLG-CGE的建模与应用[D].上海:上海社会科学院博士学位论文,2013.