突变理论在页岩储层可压性评价中的应用
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摘要
页岩储层可压性评价方法较多,但是将突变理论应用于页岩储层可压性评价则比较少见。为此,首先在分析突变理论的基础上,综合考虑储层因素和地质因素,根据层次分析法原理建立了由目标层、准则层和指标层组成的页岩储层可压性评价多层次结构模型,确定了页岩储层可压性评价突变模型。然后,基于5口井的数据,运用突变理论对其可压性进行了评价,确定了其可压性优劣程度及其顺序,并与利用层次分析法确定权重所计算的结果进行了对比。最后,讨论了突变理论的适用性、可行性以及局限性。研究结果表明,突变理论评价方法与传统的层次分析法结果一致。该方法减少了以往评价模型的人为主观性,评价方法更为简单,评价结果更加可靠,为页岩储层可压性评价提供了一条新途径,对于页岩气开发的压前评价具有一定的指导意义。
There are many methods to evaluate the fracability of shale reservoirs, but it is unusual to apply the catastrophe theory to the fracability evaluation of shale reservoirs. Therefore, firstly based on the analysis of the catastrophe theory, considering the reservoir factors and geological factors, and according to the principle of analytic hierarchy process(AHP), a multilevel structural model composed of target layer, criterion layer and index layer for evaluation of shale reservoirs was established, which determines the fracability catastrophe model of shale reservoirs. And then, based on the data of five wells, their fracability were evaluated by the catastrophe theory, whose order were determined and compared with the results calculated by the method of determining the weight of the analytic hierarchy process. Finally, the applicability, feasibility and limitations of the catastrophe theory were discussed. The results show that the evaluation method of catastrophe theory is consistent with the traditional analytic hierarchy process, which reduces the human subjectivity in the previous evaluation model; the evaluation method is simpler, and the evaluation result is more reliable, which provides a new approach for the fracability of shale reservoir and has certain guiding significance for the pre-pressure evaluation of shale reservoir.
There are many methods to evaluate the fracability of shale reservoirs, but it is unusual to apply the catastrophe theory to the fracability evaluation of shale reservoirs. Therefore, firstly based on the analysis of the catastrophe theory, considering the reservoir factors and geological factors, and according to the principle of analytic hierarchy process(AHP), a multilevel structural model composed of target layer, criterion layer and index layer for evaluation of shale reservoirs was established, which determines the fracability catastrophe model of shale reservoirs. And then, based on the data of five wells, their fracability were evaluated by the catastrophe theory, whose order were determined and compared with the results calculated by the method of determining the weight of the analytic hierarchy process. Finally, the applicability, feasibility and limitations of the catastrophe theory were discussed. The results show that the evaluation method of catastrophe theory is consistent with the traditional analytic hierarchy process, which reduces the human subjectivity in the previous evaluation model; the evaluation method is simpler, and the evaluation result is more reliable, which provides a new approach for the fracability of shale reservoir and has certain guiding significance for the pre-pressure evaluation of shale reservoir.
引文
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[14]PUSHKAR A,HALL F L,ACHA-DAZA J A.Estimation of speeds from single-loop freeway flow and occupancy data using cusp catastrophe theory[C]//Transportation Research Record 1457.Washington,D C:Transportation Research Board,1994:149-157.
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[17]邹才能,董大忠,杨桦,等.中国页岩气形成条件及勘探实践[J].天然气工业,2011,31(12):26-39.
[18]刘军.突变理论在岩石力学中的应用及发展趋势[J].自然杂志,2000,22(5):264-267.
[2]司马立强,温丹妮,闫建平,等.泥页岩储层可压裂性分析及压裂高度预测方法研究[J].测井技术,2015,39(5):622-627.
[3]王汉青,陈军斌,张杰,等.基于权重分配的页岩气储层可压性评价新方法[J].石油钻探技术,2016,44(3):92-98.
[4]凌复华.突变理论及其应用[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,1987:序言1-3.
[5]李远超,师俊峰.突变评价法在压裂选井选层中的应用[J].钻采工艺,2008,31(6):56-58.
[6]李绍飞,孙书洪,王向余.突变理论在海河流域地下水环境风险评价中的应用[J].水利学报,2007,38(11):1312-1317.
[7]戴勇,李正文,吴大奎.突变论在地震资料储层预测中的应用[J].天然气工业,2006,26(6):47-49.
[8]何沙,吉安民,杨喆,等.安全流变—突变模型在井喷事故中的应用分析[J].天然气工业,2011,31(4):109-112.
[9]孙文卿,冉茂云,熊建龙,等.突变理论在煤层气储层评价中的应用:以准噶尔盆地砂沟井田为例[J].天然气工业,2013,33(2):35-38.
[10]宫凤强,李夕兵,高科.地下工程围岩稳定性分类的突变级数法研究[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2008,39(5):211-216.
[11]文畅平,肖宏彬,曾娟娟.基于突变级数法的滑坡稳定性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(2):70-75.
[12]SAUNDERS P T.突变理论入门[M].凌复华,译.上海:上海科学技术文献出版社,1983:153.
[13]梁桂兰,徐卫亚,何育智,等.突变级数法在边坡稳定综合评判中的应用[J].岩土力学,2008,29(7):1895-1899.
[14]PUSHKAR A,HALL F L,ACHA-DAZA J A.Estimation of speeds from single-loop freeway flow and occupancy data using cusp catastrophe theory[C]//Transportation Research Record 1457.Washington,D C:Transportation Research Board,1994:149-157.
[15]ZOU K Q.Fuzzy decision support systems and its application[J].Advances in Systems Science and Applications,2003,3(1):52-54.
[16]赵焕臣.层次分析法:一种简易的新决策方法[M].北京:科学出版社,1986:3-4.
[17]邹才能,董大忠,杨桦,等.中国页岩气形成条件及勘探实践[J].天然气工业,2011,31(12):26-39.
[18]刘军.突变理论在岩石力学中的应用及发展趋势[J].自然杂志,2000,22(5):264-267.