基于PCA-Fisher最优分割法的汛期分期影响研究
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摘要
针对传统汛期分析方法主观性强、研究论域单一等问题,以申村水库流域为例,首先采用均值变点分析法寻找月降雨-径流的相关系数列变点,定量确定汛期研究域;再应用Fisher最优分割法,结合PCA法确定各项指标权重研究了基于综合指标、洪水指标以及暴雨指标的流域汛期分期规律,并依据区域气候成因对分期结果进行分析。结果表明,基于PCA-Fisher最优分割法可行;汛期分期结果与分期指标有密切关系,在实际应用,应综合考虑多种指标;人为判定汛期研究域缺乏对气候变化和极端天气等因素的考虑,需对气候变化等因素对汛期的影响做深入研究。
Current flood season division methods are often subjective,it is difficult to make flood season staging easily and reasonably. Taking Shencun Reservoir basin as an example,the average value change-point method is firstly used to find out the correlation coefficient between monthly rainfall and runoff for quantitatively determining the flood season and non-flood season,and then,the weight of each index is determined by using Fisher optimal dissection method combined with principal component analysis( PCA) method. The staging rules of flood season are studied based on comprehensive index,flood index and rainstorm index,and the staging results are analyzed according to regional climate characteristics. The results show that PCA-Fisher optimal dissection method is feasible. The staging results in flood season are closely related to staging indexes,so a variety of indicators should be comprehensively considered in practical application. Because there is a lack of consideration of climate change and extreme weather in the determination of flood season and non-flood season,it is need to make an in-depth study on the impact of climate change on flood season.
Current flood season division methods are often subjective,it is difficult to make flood season staging easily and reasonably. Taking Shencun Reservoir basin as an example,the average value change-point method is firstly used to find out the correlation coefficient between monthly rainfall and runoff for quantitatively determining the flood season and non-flood season,and then,the weight of each index is determined by using Fisher optimal dissection method combined with principal component analysis( PCA) method. The staging rules of flood season are studied based on comprehensive index,flood index and rainstorm index,and the staging results are analyzed according to regional climate characteristics. The results show that PCA-Fisher optimal dissection method is feasible. The staging results in flood season are closely related to staging indexes,so a variety of indicators should be comprehensively considered in practical application. Because there is a lack of consideration of climate change and extreme weather in the determination of flood season and non-flood season,it is need to make an in-depth study on the impact of climate change on flood season.
引文
[1]PENG Yang,JI Changming,LIU Fang.Impounding time and objective decision of Siluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs in the flood recession period[J].Journal of Basic Science and Engineering,2014,22(6):1098-1107.
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[6]李俊,武鹏林.改进的Fisher最优分割法在汛期分期中的应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2016(11):23-26,30.
[7]张琳,李长俊,苏欣,等.模糊层次分析法确定管线风险因素权重[J].石油机械,2006,34(6):43-45.
[8]WANG Hejia,XIAO Weihua,WANG Jianhua,et al.The impact of climate change on the duration and division of flood season in the Fenhe River Basin[J].Water,2016(8):1-11.
[2]莫崇勋,钟欢欢,王大洋,等.集对分析方法在澄碧河水库汛期分期中的应用[J].水力发电,2016,42(1):14-17.
[3]喻婷,郭生练,刘攀,等.水库汛期分期方法研究及其应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2006(8):24-26,56.
[4]刘克琳,王银堂,胡四一.Fisher最优分割法在汛期分期中的应用[J].水利水电科技进展,2007,27(3):14-16,37.
[5]莫崇勋,王大洋,朱新荣,等.Fisher最优分割法在澄碧河水库汛期分期中的应用[J].水力发电,2017,43(6):19-22,27.
[6]李俊,武鹏林.改进的Fisher最优分割法在汛期分期中的应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2016(11):23-26,30.
[7]张琳,李长俊,苏欣,等.模糊层次分析法确定管线风险因素权重[J].石油机械,2006,34(6):43-45.
[8]WANG Hejia,XIAO Weihua,WANG Jianhua,et al.The impact of climate change on the duration and division of flood season in the Fenhe River Basin[J].Water,2016(8):1-11.