变压器状态评价博弈式证据理论模型研究
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摘要
变压器状态评价存在大量模糊、不确定甚至是冲突信息,同时现有的评价方法还主要依赖专家的主观经验,这些都阻碍了状态评价进一步的发展。针对以上问题,提出了一种新的评价决策模型,将模糊集理论、权重博弈论和改进证据理论的优点融入到评价方法中来。评价指标体系包括油色谱、电气试验、绝缘油和运行参数4个影响因素共20个评价指标。首先采用模糊集理论获得所有指标的状态隶属度,其次用模糊层次分析法和熵权重方法分别计算各指标的主观权重和客观权重,随后利用权重博弈论结合主观权重和客观权重获得指标的综合权重,最后用改进证据理论将4个因素的评价结果融合,得到变压器的状态评价结果。通过实例验证,该模型可以准确反映变压器的实际状态,为电力公司开展状态评价和安排状态检修工作提供了理论与实践支撑。
The evaluation of transformer status in operation is confusing because of uncertain or even conflicting information. The existing evaluation methods rely mainly on the subjective opinions of experts. This paper proposed a new evaluation model,in which the fuzzy set theory,the game theory and the modified evidence theory were added. The proposed evaluation framework consisted of four levels,including four factors and twenty indices. This method firstly employed the fuzzy set theory to obtain the basic assigned weight of all the indices. Fuzzy hierarchy analysis and the entropy weight method were then adopted to process the basic weight to get the subjective and objective weight of each index respectively. The game theory was utilized to combine the subjective and objective weight to obtain the comprehensive weight. Finally,this paper adopted the modified evidence theory to give the final assessment of transformer. The model was verified by two examples. The results show that the method can predict the actual state of the transformer accurately and provide support for the power company to carry out evaluation and arrange maintenance.
The evaluation of transformer status in operation is confusing because of uncertain or even conflicting information. The existing evaluation methods rely mainly on the subjective opinions of experts. This paper proposed a new evaluation model,in which the fuzzy set theory,the game theory and the modified evidence theory were added. The proposed evaluation framework consisted of four levels,including four factors and twenty indices. This method firstly employed the fuzzy set theory to obtain the basic assigned weight of all the indices. Fuzzy hierarchy analysis and the entropy weight method were then adopted to process the basic weight to get the subjective and objective weight of each index respectively. The game theory was utilized to combine the subjective and objective weight to obtain the comprehensive weight. Finally,this paper adopted the modified evidence theory to give the final assessment of transformer. The model was verified by two examples. The results show that the method can predict the actual state of the transformer accurately and provide support for the power company to carry out evaluation and arrange maintenance.
引文
[1]付强,陈特放,朱佼佼.采用自组织RBF网络算法的变压器故障诊断[J].高电压技术,2012,38(6):1368-1375.FU Qiang,CHEN Tefang,ZHU Jiaojiao.Transformer fault diagnosis using self-adaptive RBF neutral network algorithm[J].High Voltage Engineering,2012,38(6):1368-1375.
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[9]廖瑞金,黄飞龙,杨丽君,等.多信息量融合的电力变压器状态评估模型[J].高电压技术,2010,36(6):1455-1460.LIAO Ruijin,HUANG Feilong,YANG Lijun,et al.Condition assessment of power transformer using information fusion[J].High Voltage Engineering,2010,36(6):1445-1460.
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[12]LIAO R,ZHENG H.An integrated decision-making model for condition assessment of power transformers using fuzzy approach and evidential reasoning[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2011,26(2):1111-1118.
[13]邓勇,施文康,朱振福.一种有效处理冲突证据的组合方法[J].红外与毫米波学报,2004,23(1):27-32.DENG Yong,SHI Wenkang,ZHU Zhenfu.An efficient approach for conflict evidence combination[J].Journal of Infrared and Millimeter Waves,2004,23(1):27-32.
[14]VEERABATHIRAN R,SRINATH K A.Application of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP[J].International Journal of Engineering Science&Technology,2012,4(7):3472-3480.
[15]LI L H,MO R.Production task queue optimization based on multi-attribute evaluation for complex product assembly workshop[J].Plos One,2015,10(9):e0134343.
[16]LAI C,CHEN X,CHEN X,et al.A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory[J].Natural Hazards,2015,77(2):1243-1259.
[17]国家电网公司企业标准.Q/GDW 169-2008油浸式变压器(电抗器)状态评价导则[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2008.State Grid Corporation Enterprise Standard.Q/GDW169-2008 Guidance on the evaluation of oil-immersed transformers(reactors)[S].Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2008.
[18]ABU-ELANIEN A E B,SALAMA M M A,IBRAHIM M.Calculation of a health index for oil-immersed transformers rated under 69 k V using fuzzy logic[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2012,27(4):2029-2036.
[19]CHEN J F,HSIEH H N,DO Q H.Evaluating teaching performance based on fuzzy AHP and comprehensive evaluation approach[J].Applied Soft Computing,2015,28(C):100-108.
[20]ZHAO H,LI N.Optimal siting of charging stations for electric vehicles based on fuzzy delphi and hybrid multicriteria decision making approaches from an extended sustainability perspective[J].Energies,2016,9(4):270.
[21]JOUSSELME A L,GRENIER D,LOI Bossé.A new distance between two bodies of evidence[J].Information Fusion,2001,2(2):91-101.
[22]YASINZADEH M,SEYEDI H.Fake measurement identification in power substations based on correlation between data and distance of the evidence[J].Generation Transmission&Distribution Iet,2015,9(5):503-512.
[2]徐岩,陈昕.基于合作博弈和云模型的变压器状态评估方法[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(3):88-93.XU Yan,CHEN Xin.Transformer status assessment based on cooperative game and cloud model[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(3):88-93.
[3]张哲,赵文清,朱永利,等.基于支持向量同归的电力变压器状态评估[J].电力自动化设备,2010,30(4):81-84.ZHANG Zhe,ZHAO Wenqing,ZHU Yongli,et al.Power transformer condition evaluation based on support vector regression[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2010,30(4):81-84.
[4]刘卫华,廖瑞金,杨丽君.基于点密度加权核模糊聚类的变压器故障诊断方法[J].电力自动化设备,2012,32(6):66-69.LIU Weihua,LIAO Ruijin,YANG Lijun.Power transformer fault diagnosis based on dot density weighted fuzzy kernel clustering[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2012,32(6):66-69.
[5]陈伟根,潘翀,王有元,等.利用小波神经网络的电力变压器故障诊断方法[J].高电压技术,2007,33(8):52-55.CHEN Weigeng,PAN Chong,WANG Youyuan,et al.Power transformer condition assessment based on AHP grey fixed-weight clustering[J].High Voltage Engineering,2007,33(8):52-55.
[6]刘从法,罗日成,雷春燕,等.基于AHP灰色定权聚类的电力变压器状态评估[J].电力自动化设备,2013,33(6):104-107.LIU Congfa,LUO Richeng,LEI Chunyang,et al.Application of gray clustering analysis in state evaluation of power transformer[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,33(6):104-107.
[7]张景明,肖倩华,王时胜.融合粗糙集和神经网络的变压器故障诊断[J].高电压技术,2007,33(8):122-125.ZHANG Jinming,XIAO Qianhua,WANG Shisheng.Transformer fault diagnosis by combination of rough set and neural network[J].High Voltage Engineering,2007,33(8):122-125.
[8]石少伟,王可,陈力,等.基于模糊综合评价和贝叶斯判别的电力变压器状态判别和预警[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(9):60-66.SHI Shaowei,WANG Ke,CHEN Li,et al.Power transformer status evaluation and warning based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and Bayes discrimination[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(9):60-66.
[9]廖瑞金,黄飞龙,杨丽君,等.多信息量融合的电力变压器状态评估模型[J].高电压技术,2010,36(6):1455-1460.LIAO Ruijin,HUANG Feilong,YANG Lijun,et al.Condition assessment of power transformer using information fusion[J].High Voltage Engineering,2010,36(6):1445-1460.
[10]张晗,常安,王奇,等.基于多源信息的变压器状态评价方案研究与应用[J].高压电器,2016,1(2):19-27.ZHANG Han,CHANG An,QANG Qi,et al.Research and application of transformer state evaluation scheme based on multi-source information[J].High Voltage Electrical Appliances,2016,1(2):19-27.
[11]朱承治,郭创新,孙旻,等.基于改进证据推理的变压器状态评估研究[J].高电压技术,2008,34(11):2332-2337.ZHU Chengzhi,GUO Chuangxin,SUN Min,et al.Power transformer condition assessment based on improved evidential reasoning[J].High Voltage Engineering,2008,34(11):2332-2337.
[12]LIAO R,ZHENG H.An integrated decision-making model for condition assessment of power transformers using fuzzy approach and evidential reasoning[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2011,26(2):1111-1118.
[13]邓勇,施文康,朱振福.一种有效处理冲突证据的组合方法[J].红外与毫米波学报,2004,23(1):27-32.DENG Yong,SHI Wenkang,ZHU Zhenfu.An efficient approach for conflict evidence combination[J].Journal of Infrared and Millimeter Waves,2004,23(1):27-32.
[14]VEERABATHIRAN R,SRINATH K A.Application of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP[J].International Journal of Engineering Science&Technology,2012,4(7):3472-3480.
[15]LI L H,MO R.Production task queue optimization based on multi-attribute evaluation for complex product assembly workshop[J].Plos One,2015,10(9):e0134343.
[16]LAI C,CHEN X,CHEN X,et al.A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory[J].Natural Hazards,2015,77(2):1243-1259.
[17]国家电网公司企业标准.Q/GDW 169-2008油浸式变压器(电抗器)状态评价导则[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2008.State Grid Corporation Enterprise Standard.Q/GDW169-2008 Guidance on the evaluation of oil-immersed transformers(reactors)[S].Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2008.
[18]ABU-ELANIEN A E B,SALAMA M M A,IBRAHIM M.Calculation of a health index for oil-immersed transformers rated under 69 k V using fuzzy logic[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2012,27(4):2029-2036.
[19]CHEN J F,HSIEH H N,DO Q H.Evaluating teaching performance based on fuzzy AHP and comprehensive evaluation approach[J].Applied Soft Computing,2015,28(C):100-108.
[20]ZHAO H,LI N.Optimal siting of charging stations for electric vehicles based on fuzzy delphi and hybrid multicriteria decision making approaches from an extended sustainability perspective[J].Energies,2016,9(4):270.
[21]JOUSSELME A L,GRENIER D,LOI Bossé.A new distance between two bodies of evidence[J].Information Fusion,2001,2(2):91-101.
[22]YASINZADEH M,SEYEDI H.Fake measurement identification in power substations based on correlation between data and distance of the evidence[J].Generation Transmission&Distribution Iet,2015,9(5):503-512.