基于模糊集对分析法的底板突水危险性评价研究
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摘要
为了对底板突水等级进行科学合理的评价,建立基于模糊集对分析法的底板突水危险性评价模型。首先,从地质构造、水文地质条件、底板隔水层条件、开采条件4个方面选取断裂密度、褶皱、断层导水性等13个指标构建底板突水危险性评价指标体系;其次,按照现有常用底板突水等级分类,将底板突水危险性分为4个等级;再次,通过各指标实际数值与1级标准比照求出各指标模糊联系度,并采取信息熵确定各指标权重,从而求出样本模糊联系度;最后,利用最大隶属度原则进行评价判断。该模型应用于肥城矿区5个地段,应用结果表明:基于模糊集对分析法的底板突水危险性评价模型能够与基于未确知测度理论的底板突水评价结果以及实际情况均能完全一致,能够应用于底板突水危险性评价中。
In order to realize a scientific rational evaluation on the floor water inrush grade,based on the entropy weight method and the Fuzzy Set pair Analysis Method,a danger evaluation model of floor water inrush was established.Firstly,from the four aspects,of the geological structure,hydro geological conditions,floor isolated layer conditions in the floor and mining conditions,thirteen indexes of the fracture density,fold,fault hydraulic conductivity and others were selected to establish the evaluation index system of the floor water inrush.Secondly,according to the classification of the available conventional floor water inrush grades,the dangers of floor water inrush were divided into4 grades.Thirdly,with the comparison between the actual value of each index with the first-grade standard,a fuzzy connection degree of each index was calculated.And the information entropy was applied to determine each index and thus the fuzzy connection degree of sample was calculated.Finally,the maximum subordinate degree principle was applied to the evaluation and judgment. The model was applied to five sections of Feicheng Mining Area and the study result showed that based on the theory of Fuzzy Set Pair Analysis,the danger evaluation model of the floor water inrush could have the full same to the evaluation results of the floor water inrush evaluation based on unascertained measure theory as well as the actual situation and could be applied to the evaluation of water inrush danger of floor.
In order to realize a scientific rational evaluation on the floor water inrush grade,based on the entropy weight method and the Fuzzy Set pair Analysis Method,a danger evaluation model of floor water inrush was established.Firstly,from the four aspects,of the geological structure,hydro geological conditions,floor isolated layer conditions in the floor and mining conditions,thirteen indexes of the fracture density,fold,fault hydraulic conductivity and others were selected to establish the evaluation index system of the floor water inrush.Secondly,according to the classification of the available conventional floor water inrush grades,the dangers of floor water inrush were divided into4 grades.Thirdly,with the comparison between the actual value of each index with the first-grade standard,a fuzzy connection degree of each index was calculated.And the information entropy was applied to determine each index and thus the fuzzy connection degree of sample was calculated.Finally,the maximum subordinate degree principle was applied to the evaluation and judgment. The model was applied to five sections of Feicheng Mining Area and the study result showed that based on the theory of Fuzzy Set Pair Analysis,the danger evaluation model of the floor water inrush could have the full same to the evaluation results of the floor water inrush evaluation based on unascertained measure theory as well as the actual situation and could be applied to the evaluation of water inrush danger of floor.
引文
[1]刘雪艳,张雪英,李凤莲.基于万有引力的煤层底板突水预测算法[J].煤炭学报,2015,40(S2):458-463.LIU Xueyan,ZHANG Xueying,LI Fenglian. Gravitational force based coal floor water inrush prediction algorithm[J]. Journal of China Coal Society,2015,40(S2):458-463.
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[8]肖建于,童敏明,姜春路.基于模糊证据理论的煤层底板突水量预测[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(S1):131-137.XIAO Jianyu,TONG Minming,JIANG Chunlu. Prediction of water inrush quantity from coal floor based on fuzzy evidence theory[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2014,37(S1):131-137.
[9]陈雪锋,陈文涛.集对分析理论在爆破工程安全预评价中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(1):146-150.CHEN Xuefeng,CHEN Wentao. Application of set pair analysis theory in safety pre-evaluation of blasting engineering[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2017,13(1):146-150.
[10]李德顺,许开立,张喜嘉,等.集对分析集对势的研究及其影响[J].工业安全与环保,2009,35(9):8-9,17.LI Deshun,XU Kaili,ZHANG Xijia,et al. Research and application of set pair situation in the set pair analysis[J].Industrial Safety and Environment Protection,2009,35(9):8-9,17.
[11]王宏伟,张鑫,邱俊楠.模糊集对分析法在水资源安全评价中的应用[J].西北农林科技大学:自然科学版,2011,39(10):209-214.WANG Hongwei,ZHANG Xin,QIU Junnan. Application of fuzzy set pair analysis method in safety evaluation of water resources[J].Journal of Northwest A﹠F University:Nat Sci Ed,2011,39(10):209-214.
[12]沈俊源,吴凤平,于倩雯.基于模糊集对分析的最严格水安全综合评价[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(2):92-97.SHENJunyuan, WU Fengping, YU Qianwen. Strictest comprehensive evaluation of water safety based on fuzzy set pair analysis[J]. Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2016,27(2):92-97.
[13]汪明武,李丽,金菊良.岩爆预测的改进集对分析模型[J].岩土力学,2008,28(S1):511-514.WANGMingwu,LI Li,JIN Juliang. An improved set pair analysis model for the prediction of rock burst[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008(S1):511-514.
[14]吴大国,汪明武,张薇薇.基于模糊集对分析的黄土路堑边坡稳定性评价方法[J].岩土力学,2008,28(S1),435-438.WU Daguo,WANG Zhiwu,ZHANG Weiwei. Stability analysis method of loess cutting slope based on fuzzy set pair[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,28(S1),435-438.
[15]雷勋平,邱广华.基于熵权TOPSIS模型的区域资源环境承载力评价实证研究[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(1):314-323.LEI Xunping,QIU Guanghua. Empirical study about the carrying capacity evaluation of regional resources and environment based on entropy-weight topsis model[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiate,2013,32(10):1973-1980.
[16]俞乾,李卫国.模糊集对分析模型在大型电力变压器状态评价中的应用[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2013,44(2):598-603.YU Qian,LI Weiguo.Application of fuzzy set pair analysis model to power transformer conditions assessment[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology, 2013, 44(2):598-603.
[17]叶世雄,贾明涛,潘传鹏,等.基于未确知测度理论的煤层底板突水危险性评价[J].安全与环境学报,2015,15(1):26-30.YE Shixiong,JIA Mingtao,PAN Chuanpeng,et al.New assessment model for water-inrush hazard from the coal seam floor based on the fuzzy theory measurement[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2015,15(1):26-30.
[18]刘伟韬,宋传文,张国玉.底板突水的专家评分-层次分析预测与评价[J].工程勘察,2002(1):22-25.LIU Weitao,SONG Chuanwen,ZHANG Guoyu. Expert score of floor water inrush prediction and evaluation based on Analytic Hierarchy Process[J].Geotechnical Investigation&Surveying,2002(1):22-25.
[19]武强,张志龙,马积福.煤层底板突水评价的新型实用方法Ⅰ:主控指标体系的建设[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(1):42-47.WU Qiang, ZHANG Zhilong, MA Jifu. A new practical methodology of the coal floor water bursting evaluating(PartⅠ):The master controlling index system construction[J]. Journal of China Coal Society,2007,32(1):42-47.
[20]李博,郭小铭,徐爽,等.基于模糊评判-综合赋权的煤层底板突水危险性评价[J].河南理工大学学报:自然科学版:2014,33(1):6-11.LI Bo,GUO Xiaoming,XU Shuang,et al. Risk assessment of coal floor groundwater bursting base on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation comprehensive weight[J]. Journal of Henan Polytechnic University:Natural Science,2014,33(1):6-11.
[2]施龙青,韩进,宋杨,等.用突水概率指数法预测采场底板突水[J].中国矿业大学学报,1999,28(5):442-444.SHI Longqing,HAN Jin,SONG Yang,et al.Forecast of water inrush from mining floor with probability indexes[J].Journal of China University of Mining﹠Technology,1999,28(5):442-444.
[3]武强,张志龙,张生元,等.煤层底板突水评价的新型实用方法Ⅱ—脆弱性指数法[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(11):1121-1126.WU Qiang,ZHANG Zhilong,ZHANG Shengyuan,et al. A new practical methodology of the coal floor water bursting evaluating(PartⅡ):the vulnerable index method[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2007,32(11):1121-1126.
[4]王连国,宋扬.煤层底板突水组合人工神经网络预测[J].岩土工程学报,2001,23(4):502-505.WANG Lianguo,SONG Yang.Combined ANN forecast of water-inrush from coal floor[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2001,23(4):502-505.
[5]李颖.基于支持向量机的煤层底板突水预测方法研究[D].西安:煤炭科学研究总院西安分院,2007.
[6]高延法,章延平,张慧敏,等.底板突水危险性评价专家系统及应用研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(2):254-258.GAO Yanfa,ZHANG Yanping,ZHANG Huimin,et al.Research on expert system for risk assessment of water inrush from coal floor and its application[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(2):254-258.
[7]陈红江,李夕兵,刘爱华,等.煤层底板突水量的距离判别分析预测方法[J].煤炭学报,2009,34(4):487-491.CHEN Hongjiang,LI Xibing,LIU Aihua,et al. Forecast method of water inrush quantity from coal floor based on distance discriminate analysis theory[J]. Journal of China Coal Society,2009,34(4):487-491.
[8]肖建于,童敏明,姜春路.基于模糊证据理论的煤层底板突水量预测[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(S1):131-137.XIAO Jianyu,TONG Minming,JIANG Chunlu. Prediction of water inrush quantity from coal floor based on fuzzy evidence theory[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2014,37(S1):131-137.
[9]陈雪锋,陈文涛.集对分析理论在爆破工程安全预评价中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(1):146-150.CHEN Xuefeng,CHEN Wentao. Application of set pair analysis theory in safety pre-evaluation of blasting engineering[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2017,13(1):146-150.
[10]李德顺,许开立,张喜嘉,等.集对分析集对势的研究及其影响[J].工业安全与环保,2009,35(9):8-9,17.LI Deshun,XU Kaili,ZHANG Xijia,et al. Research and application of set pair situation in the set pair analysis[J].Industrial Safety and Environment Protection,2009,35(9):8-9,17.
[11]王宏伟,张鑫,邱俊楠.模糊集对分析法在水资源安全评价中的应用[J].西北农林科技大学:自然科学版,2011,39(10):209-214.WANG Hongwei,ZHANG Xin,QIU Junnan. Application of fuzzy set pair analysis method in safety evaluation of water resources[J].Journal of Northwest A﹠F University:Nat Sci Ed,2011,39(10):209-214.
[12]沈俊源,吴凤平,于倩雯.基于模糊集对分析的最严格水安全综合评价[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(2):92-97.SHENJunyuan, WU Fengping, YU Qianwen. Strictest comprehensive evaluation of water safety based on fuzzy set pair analysis[J]. Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2016,27(2):92-97.
[13]汪明武,李丽,金菊良.岩爆预测的改进集对分析模型[J].岩土力学,2008,28(S1):511-514.WANGMingwu,LI Li,JIN Juliang. An improved set pair analysis model for the prediction of rock burst[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008(S1):511-514.
[14]吴大国,汪明武,张薇薇.基于模糊集对分析的黄土路堑边坡稳定性评价方法[J].岩土力学,2008,28(S1),435-438.WU Daguo,WANG Zhiwu,ZHANG Weiwei. Stability analysis method of loess cutting slope based on fuzzy set pair[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,28(S1),435-438.
[15]雷勋平,邱广华.基于熵权TOPSIS模型的区域资源环境承载力评价实证研究[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(1):314-323.LEI Xunping,QIU Guanghua. Empirical study about the carrying capacity evaluation of regional resources and environment based on entropy-weight topsis model[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiate,2013,32(10):1973-1980.
[16]俞乾,李卫国.模糊集对分析模型在大型电力变压器状态评价中的应用[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2013,44(2):598-603.YU Qian,LI Weiguo.Application of fuzzy set pair analysis model to power transformer conditions assessment[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology, 2013, 44(2):598-603.
[17]叶世雄,贾明涛,潘传鹏,等.基于未确知测度理论的煤层底板突水危险性评价[J].安全与环境学报,2015,15(1):26-30.YE Shixiong,JIA Mingtao,PAN Chuanpeng,et al.New assessment model for water-inrush hazard from the coal seam floor based on the fuzzy theory measurement[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2015,15(1):26-30.
[18]刘伟韬,宋传文,张国玉.底板突水的专家评分-层次分析预测与评价[J].工程勘察,2002(1):22-25.LIU Weitao,SONG Chuanwen,ZHANG Guoyu. Expert score of floor water inrush prediction and evaluation based on Analytic Hierarchy Process[J].Geotechnical Investigation&Surveying,2002(1):22-25.
[19]武强,张志龙,马积福.煤层底板突水评价的新型实用方法Ⅰ:主控指标体系的建设[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(1):42-47.WU Qiang, ZHANG Zhilong, MA Jifu. A new practical methodology of the coal floor water bursting evaluating(PartⅠ):The master controlling index system construction[J]. Journal of China Coal Society,2007,32(1):42-47.
[20]李博,郭小铭,徐爽,等.基于模糊评判-综合赋权的煤层底板突水危险性评价[J].河南理工大学学报:自然科学版:2014,33(1):6-11.LI Bo,GUO Xiaoming,XU Shuang,et al. Risk assessment of coal floor groundwater bursting base on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation comprehensive weight[J]. Journal of Henan Polytechnic University:Natural Science,2014,33(1):6-11.