1961～2015年中国地区冰雹持续时间的时空分布特征及影响因子研究
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摘要
本文利用1961～2015年(55年)中国地区577个地面观测站的冰雹资料,应用统计学方法,分析了冰雹持续时间的空间分布、年际变化以及日变化特征,包括站点降雹累积持续时间、平均单次降雹持续时间、区域平均单次降雹持续时间、小时降雹累积持续时间和总降雹累积持续时间。结果表明:(1)1961～2015年中国地区站点降雹累积持续时间与海拔高度呈现较高的正相关关系,相关系数高达0.99。站点降雹累积持续时间的最大值出现在青藏高原地区,累积持续时间高达250分钟,其次为内蒙古中部以及东北部的山区地带,累积持续时间约为150分钟。(2)1961～2015年平均单次降雹持续时间呈现上升趋势,55年冰雹累积持续时间大约增长1分钟,且通过了95%信度水平的显著性检验。(3)西北地区、北部平原地区和东南地区在1961～1980年期间,区域平均单次降雹持续时间都有显著的下降趋势,而在1970～2015年期间西北地区和青藏高原地区呈现显著的上升趋势。1961～1980年期间区域平均单次降雹持续时间在西北地区的长期趋势变化主要受到日最低气温以及温度日较差长期年际变化的影响,在北部平原地区仅与温度日较差相关,而在东南地区与三个对流参数都有较好的相关性;1970～2015年和1961～2015年期间西北地区和青藏高原地区的区域平均单次降雹持续时间的上升趋势分别与这两个区域的区域平均日最高气温、日最低气温呈正相关。(4)单次降雹持续时间的日变化明显,午后至夜间出现的冰雹持续时间长于凌晨和上午的冰雹持续时间,持续时间峰值出现在当地时间17时和18时。本文还利用探空资料分析了对流有效势能和Totals-totals指数与冰雹持续时间的关系,结果表明中国地区20时(北京时)的对流有效势能和Totals-totals指数可能是冰雹持续时间日变化的影响因子之一。
Based on 55-year(1961 to 2015) ground-based hail and atmospheric sounding observations, the climatological characteristics of hail duration in mainland China, including hail durations at individual stations, average single hail duration, regional average single hail duration, hourly hail duration, and whole hail duration, along with convective parameters, are analyzed. The results show that:(1) The hail duration is highly positively correlated with altitude and the correlation coefficient is up to 0.99. The largest hail duration of about 250 min for the period 1961-2015 appeared in the Tibetan Plateau, followed by that in the mountainous areas in the central and northeastern Inner Mongolia(about150 min).(2) Overall, the average single hail duration increased by 1 minute from 1961 to 2015, and the trend is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.(3) Regionally average single hail duration shows a downward trend in NWC(Northwest China), NCP(North China Plain), and SEC(Southeast China), but an upward trend in NWC and TP(the Tibetan Plateau) during 1961-1980. There are positive relationships between regional average single hail duration trend in NWC and the trends of Tmin(daily minimum temperature) and DTR(daily temperature range), while the hail duration trend in NCP is mainly correlated with the DTR trend. The hail duration trend in SEC is well correlated with all convective parameters. The upward trends of regional average hail duration both are positively correlated with the trends of Tmax(daily maximum temperature) and Tminin NWC and TP during 1970-2015 and 1961-2015.(4) In terms of diurnal variability, the hail duration of cases that occurred during afternoon and night is longer than the duration of cases that occurred in the morning. The hail duration peaks appear at 1700 LT(local time) and 1800 LT. The analysis of relationships of hail duration and CAPE(Convective Available Potential Energy), Totals-totals index based on long-term sounding data shows that CAPE and Totals-totals index at 2000 BJT(Beijing time) may be two factors that influence the diurnal cycle of hail duration in mainland China.
Based on 55-year(1961 to 2015) ground-based hail and atmospheric sounding observations, the climatological characteristics of hail duration in mainland China, including hail durations at individual stations, average single hail duration, regional average single hail duration, hourly hail duration, and whole hail duration, along with convective parameters, are analyzed. The results show that:(1) The hail duration is highly positively correlated with altitude and the correlation coefficient is up to 0.99. The largest hail duration of about 250 min for the period 1961-2015 appeared in the Tibetan Plateau, followed by that in the mountainous areas in the central and northeastern Inner Mongolia(about150 min).(2) Overall, the average single hail duration increased by 1 minute from 1961 to 2015, and the trend is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.(3) Regionally average single hail duration shows a downward trend in NWC(Northwest China), NCP(North China Plain), and SEC(Southeast China), but an upward trend in NWC and TP(the Tibetan Plateau) during 1961-1980. There are positive relationships between regional average single hail duration trend in NWC and the trends of Tmin(daily minimum temperature) and DTR(daily temperature range), while the hail duration trend in NCP is mainly correlated with the DTR trend. The hail duration trend in SEC is well correlated with all convective parameters. The upward trends of regional average hail duration both are positively correlated with the trends of Tmax(daily maximum temperature) and Tminin NWC and TP during 1970-2015 and 1961-2015.(4) In terms of diurnal variability, the hail duration of cases that occurred during afternoon and night is longer than the duration of cases that occurred in the morning. The hail duration peaks appear at 1700 LT(local time) and 1800 LT. The analysis of relationships of hail duration and CAPE(Convective Available Potential Energy), Totals-totals index based on long-term sounding data shows that CAPE and Totals-totals index at 2000 BJT(Beijing time) may be two factors that influence the diurnal cycle of hail duration in mainland China.
引文
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陈传雷,吴晓峰,孙晓巍,等.2010.辽宁省强对流性天气的气候特征分析[J].气象与环境学报,26(3):27-33.Chen Chuanlei,Wu Xiaofeng,Sun Xiaowei,et al.2010.Climatic characteristics of severe convective weather in Liaoning Province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment(in Chinese),26(3):27-33.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2010.03.005
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董安祥,张强.2004.中国冰雹研究的新进展和主要科学问题[J].干旱气象,22(3):68-76.Dong Anxiang,Zhang Qiang.2004.New development of hail research in China and main scientific problem[J].Arid Meteorology(in Chinese),22(3):68-76.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-7639.2004.03.013
高晓梅,王令军,王世杰,等.2016.1952~2012年潍坊地区冰雹时空分布特征[J].气象与环境学报,32(3):77-82.Gao Xiaomei,Wang Lingjun,Wang Shijie,et al.2016.Temporal-spatial distributions of hail disaster from 1952 to 2012 in Weifang of Shandong Province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment(in Chinese),32(3):77-82.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.03.011
IPCC.2013.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis.Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge,UKand New York,USA:Cambridge University Press,1535pp.
金晓中,贡觉顿珠.2007.那曲冰雹天气的气候特征分析[J].西藏科技,3:61-63.Jin Xiaozhong,Gongjue Dunzhu.2007.Hail climate characteristic analysis in Naqu County[J].Tibet Science and Technology(in Chinese),3:61-63.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-3403.2007.03.021
Kahraman A,Tilev-Tanriover S,Kadioglu M,et al.2016.Severe hail climatology of turkey[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,144(1):337-346.doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0337.1
Kendall M G.1975.Rank Correlation Methods[M].London:Charles Griffin,202pp.
Kunz M,Kugel P I S.2015.Detection of hail signatures from singlepolarization C-band radar reflectivity[J].Atmospheric Research,153:565-577.doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.09.010
Lewis S C,Karoly D J.2013.Evaluation of historical diurnal temperature range trends in CMIP5 models[J].J.Climate,26(22):9077-9089.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00032.1
李厚楹,孙承旬.1996.相对广义温度平流在强对流天气分析和预报中的应用[J].高原气象,15(3):363-369.Li Houying,Sun Chengxun.1996.The application of relation generalized temperature advection to analysis and forecast of severe convective weather[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),15(3):363-369
李怀宇,何如意,胡胜,等.2015.近10年广东冰雹的统计特征及天气形势[J].气象科技,43(2):261-269.Li Huaiyu,He Ruyi,Hu Sheng,et al.2015.Statistical characteristics and circulation patterns of hails in Guangdong in recent 10 years[J].Meteorological Science and Technology(in Chinese),43(2):261-269.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6345.2015.02.017
Li J,Li C C,Zhao C S,et al.2016a.Changes in surface aerosol extinction trends over China during 1980-2013 inferred from quality-controlled visibility data[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,43(16):8713-8719.doi:10.1002/2016GL070201
Li M X,Zhang Q H,Zhang F Q.2016b.Hail day frequency trends and associated atmospheric circulation patterns over China during 1960-2012[J].J.Climate,29(19):7027-7044.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0500.1
李昀英,宇如聪,傅云飞,等.2008.一次热对流降水成因的分析和模拟[J].气象学报,66(2):190-202.Li Yunying,Yu Rucong,Fu Yunfei,et al.2008.A case study on triggering of thermal convective precipitation[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),66(2):190-202.doi:10.11676/qxxb2008.019
Lindvall J,Svensson G.2015.The diurnal temperature range in the CMIP5 models[J].Climate Dyn.,44(1-2):405-421.doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2144-2
刘德祥,白虎志,董安祥.2004.中国西北地区冰雹的气候特征及异常研究[J].高原气象,23(6):795-803.Liu Dexiang,Bai Huzhi,Dong Anxiang.2004.Studies on climatic characteristic and anomaly of hail in Northwest China[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),23(6):795-803.doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534.2004.06.009
López L,Marcos J L,Sánchez J L,et al.2001.CAPE values and hailstorms on northwestern Spain[J].Atmospheric Research,56(1-4):147-160.doi:10.1016/S0169-8095(00)00095-8
Mann H B.1945.Nonparametric tests against trend[J].Econometrica,13(3):245-259.doi:10.2307/1907187
Manzato A.2003.A climatology of instability indices derived from Friuli Venezia Giulia soundings,using three different methods[J].Atmospheric Research,67-68:417-454.doi:10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00058-9
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Mezher R N,Doyle M,Barros V.2012.Climatology of hail in Argentina[J].Atmospheric Research,114-115:70-82.doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.05.020
Mohr S,Kunz M.2013.Recent trends and variabilities of convective parameters relevant for hail events in Germany and Europe[J].Atmospheric Research,123:211-228.doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.05.016
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