南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性的年代际变化及可能原因
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摘要
基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,利用信噪比(SNR)方法研究了南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性的年代际变化,结果表明:南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性在20世纪80年代出现了由潜在可预报性偏低位相向偏高位相的年代际转折。进一步的研究发现,南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性和东印度洋—西太平洋(EIOWP)的海表温度(SST)存在明显的正相关。当EIOWP区域SST年际变率较大时,对南海夏季风影响较强,使得南海夏季风的外部信号增强,从而提高了潜在可预报性;当EIOWP区域SST年际变率较小时,对南海夏季风影响较弱,南海夏季风的外部信号进而减弱,潜在可预报性降低。
Inter-decadal changes in potential predictability of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) intensity has been investigated using the signal to noise ratio method and based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. The potential predictability of the SCSSM intensity underwent a significant decadal change from a low potential predictability to a high potential predictability in the 1980 s, followed by a decreasing trend in the early 2000 s. Further analysis shows that the inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the SCSSM intensity has a significant positive correlation with sea surface temperature(SST) of the East Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific(EIOWP). The EIOWP area averaged SST with a high(low) phase of its inter-annual variability would have strong(weak) influence on the SCSSM and hence enhance(weaken) the SCSSM signal. As a result, the potential predictability of the SCSSM intensity tends to be high(low).
Inter-decadal changes in potential predictability of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) intensity has been investigated using the signal to noise ratio method and based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. The potential predictability of the SCSSM intensity underwent a significant decadal change from a low potential predictability to a high potential predictability in the 1980 s, followed by a decreasing trend in the early 2000 s. Further analysis shows that the inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the SCSSM intensity has a significant positive correlation with sea surface temperature(SST) of the East Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific(EIOWP). The EIOWP area averaged SST with a high(low) phase of its inter-annual variability would have strong(weak) influence on the SCSSM and hence enhance(weaken) the SCSSM signal. As a result, the potential predictability of the SCSSM intensity tends to be high(low).
引文
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