基于投影寻踪动态聚类模型的川东北雷暴预警的分析
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摘要
基于达州市2015年10月—2016年9月的闪电定位和探空观测资料,以850 hPa与500 h Pa温差、大气可降水量、K指数、对流有效位能、对流抑制和抬升指数作为雷暴预警因子,利用投影寻踪动态聚类方法对该时段内的雷暴个例构建了预警模型。结果表明:(1)模型预报结果定量评估的临界成功指数为72.00%,该模型对个例达到了识别和预警效果;(2)该预警模型与常规预警方法相比,具有识别率高,计算简便,客观性强等特点,可为雷暴预警提供了一种新的客观预报方法。
Based on data of lightning locations and sounding observation data in Dazhou from October 2015 to September 2016, taking temperature difference between 850 h Pa and 500 hPa, precipitable water, K Index, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy and lifting index as thunderstorm warning factors, the projection pursuit dynamic cluster method is used to construct the warning model for thunderstorms in the period. The results are as follows.(1) The critical success index for quantitative evaluation of model prediction results was 72%, and the case mentioned above was identified by this method.(2) Compared to conventional warning methods, this model has advantages of high recognition rate, simple calculation and objectivity. The model provides a new objective method for thunderstorm warning.
Based on data of lightning locations and sounding observation data in Dazhou from October 2015 to September 2016, taking temperature difference between 850 h Pa and 500 hPa, precipitable water, K Index, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy and lifting index as thunderstorm warning factors, the projection pursuit dynamic cluster method is used to construct the warning model for thunderstorms in the period. The results are as follows.(1) The critical success index for quantitative evaluation of model prediction results was 72%, and the case mentioned above was identified by this method.(2) Compared to conventional warning methods, this model has advantages of high recognition rate, simple calculation and objectivity. The model provides a new objective method for thunderstorm warning.
引文
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[2]陈洪滨,朱彦良.雷暴探测研究的进展[J].大气科学,2012,36(2):411-422
[3]陈雷,戴建华,汪雅.近10 a长三角地区雷暴天气统计分析[J].暴雨灾害,2015,34(1):80-87
[4]俞小鼎,周小刚,王秀明.雷暴与强对流临近天气预报技术进展[J].气象学报,2012,70(3):311-337
[5]郝莹,姚叶青,陈焱,等.基于对流参数的雷暴潜势预报研究[J].气象,2007,33(1):51-56
[6]胡晓,蒋飞燕,徐璐,等.基于不稳定参数统计的雷暴潜势预报方法研究[J].浙江气象,2016,37(3):11-17
[7]王秀明,俞小鼎,周小刚.雷暴潜势预报中几个基本问题的讨论[J].气象,2014,40(4):389-399
[8]田琨,郭凤霞,曾庆峰,等.南京地区雷暴活动强度潜势预报[J].气象科技,2013,41(1):177-183
[9] Friedman J H, Tukey J W. A Projection Pursuit Algorithm for Exploratory Data Analysis[J]. IEEE Transactions on Computers, 2006, 23(9):881-890
[10] David M. Glover.Exploration of multivariate atmospheric particulate compositional data by projection pursuit[J]. Atmospheric Environment,1994,28(8):1 411-1 424
[11]倪长健,崔鹏.投影寻踪动态聚类模型[J].系统工程学报,2007,22(6):634-638
[12]王顺久.水资源评价的投影寻踪动态聚类模型[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2008,40(5):22-26
[13]张鹏洲,倪长健.基于投影寻踪动态聚类模型的边坡稳定性评价[J].四川环境,2010,29(1):126-129
[14] Hagen M,Bartenschlager B,Finke U. Motion characteristics of thunderstorms in southern Germany[J]. Meteorological Applications,1999,6(3):227-239
[15]张坚,袁松,姚叶青.江淮地区雷暴的闪电定位系统与人工观测的一致性分析[J].暴雨灾害,2015, 34(3):286-292
[16]倪长健,丁晶,李祚泳.免疫进化算法[J].西南交通大学学报,2003,38(1):87-91
[17]陈勇,匡方毅,肖波.基于Web GIS的长沙市雷暴天气短期预报模型的研究与应用[J].暴雨灾害,2008, 27(3):258-263