计及参数模糊性的含风电场电力系统概率潮流计算
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摘要
风电场并网后将对电力系统运行产生一系列影响。传统半不变量法计算概率潮流(probabilistic power flow,PPF)通常仅考虑风速随机性,可能导致分析结果偏离客观实际。提出一种计及参数模糊性的半不变量法PPF计算方法。针对风速和负荷的随机性及模糊性,建立随机模糊不确定性模型,采用基于增量法的模糊潮流求得状态变量数字特征的可能性分布。同时,计及风速模糊相关性,通过模糊化半不变量法的解析法拟合得到状态变量各阶半不变量三角模糊置信区间。最后,运用Gram-Charlier级数拟合状态量的模糊概率分布。对改进IEEE 14节点系统以及江苏南京78节点等值系统的实际数据进行测试,验证了算法的有效性、准确性及实用性,并具体分析了风速模糊相关性对系统运行特性的影响。
Wind power integration into power grid has a series of impacts on power system. Probabilistic power flow(PPF) based on conventional cumulant method may result in deviation from objective reality when just considering wind speed randomness. Considering fuzzy parameters, a cumulant based PPF method was proposed. A stochastic fuzzy uncertainty model was used to deal with randomness and fuzziness of wind speed and load. Fuzzy power flow based on incremental method was used to obtain membership degree of numerical characteristics of state variables. Meanwhile, considering fuzzy correlation, triangular fuzzy confidence of cumulant was estimated based on fuzzy cumulant method. Finally, Gram-Charlier series was used to estimate fuzzy probability distribution of state variables. Validity, accuracy and efficiency of the algorithm is verified with simulation of modified IEEE14-bus system and Nanjing 78-bus equivalent system. On this basis, impacts of wind speed fuzzy correlation on power system operation characteristics are investigated.
Wind power integration into power grid has a series of impacts on power system. Probabilistic power flow(PPF) based on conventional cumulant method may result in deviation from objective reality when just considering wind speed randomness. Considering fuzzy parameters, a cumulant based PPF method was proposed. A stochastic fuzzy uncertainty model was used to deal with randomness and fuzziness of wind speed and load. Fuzzy power flow based on incremental method was used to obtain membership degree of numerical characteristics of state variables. Meanwhile, considering fuzzy correlation, triangular fuzzy confidence of cumulant was estimated based on fuzzy cumulant method. Finally, Gram-Charlier series was used to estimate fuzzy probability distribution of state variables. Validity, accuracy and efficiency of the algorithm is verified with simulation of modified IEEE14-bus system and Nanjing 78-bus equivalent system. On this basis, impacts of wind speed fuzzy correlation on power system operation characteristics are investigated.
引文
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[19]张焰,陈章潮.电网规划中的模糊潮流计算[J].电力系统自动化,1998,22(3):20-22.Zhang Yan,Chen Zhangchao.The calculation of fuzzy load flow in electric power planning[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,1998,22(3):20-22(in Chinese).
[20]吴际舜,侯志捡.电力系统潮流计算的计算机方法[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,1999:158-177.
[21]陈霜,孙国强,卫志农,等.计及碳排放的含风电场电力系统随机可用输电能力协调决策[J].电网技术,2016,40(2):405-411.Chen Shuang,Sun Guoqiang,Wei Zhinong,et al.Coordinated stochastic available transfer capability decision-making considering carbon emission with wind farm integration[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(2):405-411(in Chinese).
[22]臧海祥,何天雨,刘建坤,等.热启动环境下含统一潮流控制器的线性化最优潮流模型[J].电网技术,2016,40(11):3517-3524.Zang Haixiang,He Tianyu,Liu Jiankun,et al.Linear optimal power flow model with unified power flow controller in hot-start environment[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(11):3517-3524(in Chinese).
[2]董雷,程卫东,杨以涵.含风电场的电力系统概率潮流计算[J].电网技术,2009,33(16):87-91.Dong Lei,Cheng Weidong,Yang Yihan.Probabilistic load flow calculation for power grid containing wind farms[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(16):87-91(in Chinese).
[3]薛禹胜,雷兴,薛峰,等.关于风电不确定性对电力系统影响的评述[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(29):5029-5040.Xue Yusheng,Lei Xing,Xue Feng,et al.A review on impacts of wind power uncertainties on power systems[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(29):5029-5040(in Chinese).
[4]Borkowska B.Probabilistic load flow[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems,1974,93(3):752-759.
[5]丁明,李生虎,黄凯.基于蒙特卡罗模拟的概率潮流计算[J].电网技术,2001,25(11):10-14,22.Ding Ming,Li Shenghu,Huang Kai.Probabilistic load flow analysis based on Monte-Carlo simulation[J].Power System Technology,2001,25(11):10-14,22(in Chinese).
[6]Morales J M,Baringo L,Conejo A J,et al.Probabilistic power flow with correlated wind sources[J].IET Proceedings:Generation,Transmission and Distribution,2010,4(5):641-651.
[7]蔡德福,钱斌,陈金富,等.含电动汽车充电负荷和风电的电力系统动态概率特性分析[J].电网技术,2013,37(3):590-596.Cai Defu,Qian Bin,Chen Jinfu,et al.Analysis on dynamic probabilistic characteristic of power grid connected with electric vehicle charging load and wind power[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(3):590-596(in Chinese).
[8]余昆,曹一家,陈星莺,等.含分布式电源的地区电网动态概率潮流计算[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(1):20-25.Yu Kun,Cao Yijia,Chen Xingying,et al.Dynamic probability power flow of district grid containing distributed generation[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(1):20-25(in Chinese).
[9]李逸驰,孙国强,钱晓瑞,等.计及离散分布输入变量的电力系统概率潮流计算方法[J].电网技术,2015,39(11):3254-3259.Li Yichi,Sun Guoqiang,Qian Xiaorui,et al.Probabilistic power flow calculation method of power system considering input variables with discrete distribution[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(11):3254-3259(in Chinese).
[10]熊虎,向铁元,陈红坤,等.含大规模间歇式电源的模糊机会约束机组组合研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(13):36-44.Xiong Hu,Xiang Tieyuan,Chen Hongkun,et al.Research of fuzzy chance constrained unit commitment containing large-scale intermittent power[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(13):36-44(in Chinese).
[11]马瑞,张强,吴瑕,等.日风速随机模糊不确定模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(24):6351-6358.Ma Rui,Zhang Qiang,Wu Xia,et al.Random fuzzy uncertain model for daily wind speed[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(24):6351-6358(in Chinese).
[12]Li Wenyuan,Zhou Jiaqi,Xie Kaigui,et al.Power system risk assessment using a hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte-Carlo simulation[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2008,23(2):336-343.
[13]马瑞,李文晔,李晅,等.分布式冷热电联供系统负荷随机模糊建模[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(15):53-58.Ma Rui,Li Wenye,Li Xuan,et al.Random fuzzy model for load of distributed combined cooling,heating and power system[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(15):53-58(in Chinese).
[14]刘宝碇,赵瑞清,王纲.不确定规划及应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003:241-251.
[15]石东源,蔡德福,陈金富,等.计及输入变量相关性的半不变量法概率潮流计算[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(28):104-113.Shi Dongyuan,Cai Defu,Chen Jinfu,et al.Probabilistic load flow calculation based on cumulant method considering correlation between input variables[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2012,32(28):104-113(in Chinese).
[16]Sun C,Bie Z,Xie M,et al.Fuzzy copula model for wind speed correlation and its application in wind curtailment evaluation in wind[J].Renewable Energy,2016,93:68-76.
[17]Jangamshetti S H,Ran V G.Optimumsiting of wind turbine generators[J].IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion,2001,16(1):8-13.
[18]汪皓,吴文传,张伯明,等.基于可信性理论的模糊潮流方法[J].电力系统自动化,2007,31(17):21-25.Wang Hao,Wu Wenchuan,Zhang Boming,et al.Fuzzy power flow based on credibility theory[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2007,31(17):21-25(in Chinese).
[19]张焰,陈章潮.电网规划中的模糊潮流计算[J].电力系统自动化,1998,22(3):20-22.Zhang Yan,Chen Zhangchao.The calculation of fuzzy load flow in electric power planning[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,1998,22(3):20-22(in Chinese).
[20]吴际舜,侯志捡.电力系统潮流计算的计算机方法[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,1999:158-177.
[21]陈霜,孙国强,卫志农,等.计及碳排放的含风电场电力系统随机可用输电能力协调决策[J].电网技术,2016,40(2):405-411.Chen Shuang,Sun Guoqiang,Wei Zhinong,et al.Coordinated stochastic available transfer capability decision-making considering carbon emission with wind farm integration[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(2):405-411(in Chinese).
[22]臧海祥,何天雨,刘建坤,等.热启动环境下含统一潮流控制器的线性化最优潮流模型[J].电网技术,2016,40(11):3517-3524.Zang Haixiang,He Tianyu,Liu Jiankun,et al.Linear optimal power flow model with unified power flow controller in hot-start environment[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(11):3517-3524(in Chinese).