湖北省降水及旱涝时空分布特征分析
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摘要
为更加全面地了解湖北省降水和旱涝时空分布特征,基于湖北省30个雨量站资料,采用M-K趋势检验、Morlet小波、Z值法及EOF等分析计算方法,对全省1960—2013年降水变化显著性、周期性及空间分布变化进行了研究,并分析了湖北省单站旱涝、区域旱涝等级、空间旱涝分布及30个站点旱涝Z值空间分布模态。结果表明:全省近50年降水量整体呈略微减少的趋势,但减少趋势不显著,降水倾向率为2.92 mm/10 a,空间上呈现东南部和西南部较多,且中东部地区降水呈增加的演变趋势;在此驱动下,全省呈现出旱涝交替频发,东南部易发生涝灾,西北地区易发生旱灾的整体特征;且通过旱涝Z值的EOF正交分解分布图发现,全省旱涝分布呈一致型、西北和东南方向相反型和自西北向东南呈"三明治"型的规律,其贡献率分别为50.23%,16.14%,5.59%。
To more comprehensively understand the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation and drought and flood in Hubei Province, based on the data of 30 rainfall stations in Hubei Province, the M-K trend test, wavelet analysis, Z value and EOF method were used to analyze and calculate the data. The variation of rainfall, periodicity and spatial distribution in the 1960—2013 years of the province were analyzed. The regional drought and flood level, the spatial distribution of drought and flood and the spatial distribution pattern of drought and flood Z value in 30 stations were also analyzed in Hubei Province. The results indicated that the precipitation lecreasing in the last 50 years had been decreasing slightly. But the decrease trend was not significant. The precipitation decreasing tendency was 2.92 mm/decade. There was more precipitation in the southeast and southwest and the trend of precipitation increased in the eastern and central regions. In this drive, the alternating droughts and floods occurred frequently in the province. The southeast was prone to flooding and the northwest region was prone to drought. According to the EOF orthogonal decomposition distribution map of drought and flood Z value, there were three types of distribution of drought and flood in Hubei Province, which was uniform on provincial scale, opposite in the northwest and southeast directions, and ‘sandwich' type from northwest to southeast. Their contribution rates were 50.23%, 16.14%, 5.59%, respectively.
To more comprehensively understand the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation and drought and flood in Hubei Province, based on the data of 30 rainfall stations in Hubei Province, the M-K trend test, wavelet analysis, Z value and EOF method were used to analyze and calculate the data. The variation of rainfall, periodicity and spatial distribution in the 1960—2013 years of the province were analyzed. The regional drought and flood level, the spatial distribution of drought and flood and the spatial distribution pattern of drought and flood Z value in 30 stations were also analyzed in Hubei Province. The results indicated that the precipitation lecreasing in the last 50 years had been decreasing slightly. But the decrease trend was not significant. The precipitation decreasing tendency was 2.92 mm/decade. There was more precipitation in the southeast and southwest and the trend of precipitation increased in the eastern and central regions. In this drive, the alternating droughts and floods occurred frequently in the province. The southeast was prone to flooding and the northwest region was prone to drought. According to the EOF orthogonal decomposition distribution map of drought and flood Z value, there were three types of distribution of drought and flood in Hubei Province, which was uniform on provincial scale, opposite in the northwest and southeast directions, and ‘sandwich' type from northwest to southeast. Their contribution rates were 50.23%, 16.14%, 5.59%, respectively.
引文
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[3]顾金普,王双银,龚家国,等.黑龙江省降水及旱涝时空演变特征[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(2):17-20.
[4]刘志雄,肖莺.长江上游旱涝指标及其变化特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(3):310-314.
[5]陈云,郭霖,叶长青,等.珠江流域旱涝时空演变规律分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2018(2):113-120.
[6]叶柏年,陈正洪.湖北省旱涝若干问题及其防灾减灾对策[J].气象科技,1998,26(3):12-16.
[7]姜海如,杨柏松,吴世经,等.中国气象灾害大典湖北卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[8]陈前江,延军平.1970年以来湖北省气候变化与旱涝灾害响应分析[J].江汉大学学报:自然科学版,2015,43(4):308-316.
[9]康淑媛,张勃,柳景峰,等.基于Mann-Kendall法的张掖市降水时空分布规律分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(3):501-508.
[10]韩知明,贾克力,杨芳,等.基于Morlet小波的呼伦湖流域降水多时间尺度分析[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(1):160-166.
[11]王晓琳.基于小波分析的邯郸山区水文特性分析与预测[D].河北邯郸:河北工程大学,2012.
[12]何艳虎,陈晓宏,林凯荣,等.东江流域近50年旱涝时空演变特征[J].地理科学,2014,34(11):1391-1398.
[13]谭桂容,孙照渤,陈海山.旱涝指数的研究[J].南京气象学院学报,2002,25(2):153-158.
[14]谢平,陈晓宏,王兆礼.湛江地区旱涝特征分析[J].水文,2010,30(1):89-92.
[15]袁文平,周广胜.标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):523-529.
[16]Jr D S R, Stedinger J R. Bayesian MCMC flood frequency analysis with historical information[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2005,313(1):97-116.
[17]江和文,郭婷婷,包颖,等.辽宁省近50年旱涝灾害的时空特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(2):29-33.
[18]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[19]高媛,刘敏,周博.近50年湖北省降水变化特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(1):167-172.