北疆城市化发展的经济社会资源环境耦合协调关系分析
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摘要
对北疆主要地区城市化发展中的经济社会资源环境四个系统的协调发展关系进行研究及预测,为区域的可持续发展奠定基础.首先,建立了区域经济社会资源环境的耦合协调度指标体系,以北疆主要的5个地区为例,评价四个系统的发展水平;其次,运用耦合协调度模型的计算方法,对北疆5个地区的经济社会资源环境的耦合协调度进行实证分析;最后,引入ARMA模型预测法,对该区5个地州的经济社会资源环境的未来耦合协调度进行预测.结果表明:北疆五个主要地区的经济和环境增长较快,且二者互不影响,社会和资源的变化趋势不显著;四大系统的耦合协调度整体呈现波动上升趋势,主要制约因素是社会保障;未来5年四大系统的发展趋势与前10年的相似,总体表现为小幅上升的发展态势.
This paper studied and predicted the coordinated development relationship of the four systems including economy, society, resources and environment in the urbanization development of the main areas of Northern Xinjiang, and lays the foundation for the sustainable development of the region. First of all, an evaluation system of regional economysocial-resource-ecology was constructed, and the development level of these four systems was evaluated. Secondly, coupling coordinative degree model and the calculating methods were put forward to analysis the coupling coordination level of the economy-social-resource-ecology of five main districts in the Northern Xinjiang. Lastly, the paper adopted the ARMA model to predict the coupling coordinative degree of regional economy-social-resource-ecology in the following five years. The results show that the economy and ecology in the five main areas were increased faster and almost not impact relatively, yet the change of social and resource were doesn't significant at all; The coupling coordinative degree of the four systems in five main areas was rising, and the primary restrictive factor was social security; The coupling coordinative degree of the four systems in next five years was also rising continuously like the past ten years, however, the speed of growth was relatively slow.
This paper studied and predicted the coordinated development relationship of the four systems including economy, society, resources and environment in the urbanization development of the main areas of Northern Xinjiang, and lays the foundation for the sustainable development of the region. First of all, an evaluation system of regional economysocial-resource-ecology was constructed, and the development level of these four systems was evaluated. Secondly, coupling coordinative degree model and the calculating methods were put forward to analysis the coupling coordination level of the economy-social-resource-ecology of five main districts in the Northern Xinjiang. Lastly, the paper adopted the ARMA model to predict the coupling coordinative degree of regional economy-social-resource-ecology in the following five years. The results show that the economy and ecology in the five main areas were increased faster and almost not impact relatively, yet the change of social and resource were doesn't significant at all; The coupling coordinative degree of the four systems in five main areas was rising, and the primary restrictive factor was social security; The coupling coordinative degree of the four systems in next five years was also rising continuously like the past ten years, however, the speed of growth was relatively slow.
引文
[1]梁振民,陈才,刘继生,梅林.东北地区城市化发展质量的综合测度与层级特征研究[J].地理科学,2013,33(8):926-934.
[2] Zhang K H, Song S. Rural-urban migration and urbanization in China:Evidence from time-series and cross-section analyses[J]. China Economic Review, 2003, 14(4):386-400.
[3]陆大道,姚士谋,刘慧. 2006中国区域发展报告:城镇化进程及空间扩张[M].北京:商务印书馆,2007.
[4]李海东,王帅,刘阳.基于灰色关联理论和距离协同模型的区域协同发展评价方法及实证[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014, 34(7):1749-1755.
[5]章杰宽.区域旅游可持续发展系统的动态仿真[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011, 31(11):2101-2107.
[6]方创琳,王德利.中国城市化发展质量的综合测度与提升路径[J].地理研究,2011,30(11):1931-1946.
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[10]李继红,马洪云,黄启.山东省城市化与经济发展协调性研究[J].资源与产业,2016, 18(2):23-30.
[11]高翔,鱼腾飞,程慧波.西北地区水资源环境与城市化系统耦合的时空分异-以西陇海兰新经济带甘肃段为例[J].干旱区地理,2010, 33(6):1010-1018.
[12]熊东旭,陈荣.南京城市化与水资源环境耦合关系实证研究[J].河南师范大学学报,2015, 43(5):95-101.
[13]王飞,李景保,陈晓,徐志.皖江城市带城市化与水资源环境耦合的时空变异分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(1):1-6.
[14]刘耀彬,李仁东,宋学锋.中国区域城市化与生态环境耦合的关联分析[J].地理学报,2005, 60(2):237-247.
[15]郭月婷,徐建刚.基于模糊物元的淮河流域城市化与生态环境系统的耦合协调测度[J].应用生态学报,2013, 24(5):1244-1252.
[16]李海燕,陈晓红基于SD的城市化与生态环境耦合发展研究—以黑龙江省东部煤电化基地为例[J].生态经济,2014, 30(12):109-115.
[17]刘定慧,杨永春.区域经济-旅游-生态环境耦合协调度研究—以安徽省为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(7):892-896.
[18]周成,冯学钢,唐睿.区域经济-生态环境-旅游产业耦合协调发展分析与预测—以长江经济带沿线各省市为例[J].经济地理,2016, 36(3):186-193.
[19]姜磊,周海峰,柏玲.长江中游城市群经济-城市-社会-环境耦合度空间差异分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017, 26(5):649-656.
[20]刘雷,喻忠磊,徐晓红,张华.城市创新能力与城市化水平的耦合协调分析—以山东省为例[J].经济地理,2016, 36(6):59-66.
[21]李双江,胡亚妮,崔建升,沈洪艳.石家庄经济与人居环境耦合协调演化分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013, 27(4):8-15.
[22]梁威,刘满凤.我国战略性新兴产业与传统产业耦合协调发展及时空分异[J].经济地理,2017, 37(4):117-126.
[23]孜比布拉·司马义,苏力叶·木沙江,帕夏古·阿不来提.阿克苏市城市化与生态环境综合水平协调度评析[J].地理研究,2011,30(3):496-504.
[24]李涛,廖和平,杨伟,庄伟,时仅.重庆市“土地、人口、产业”城镇化质量的时空分异及耦合协调性[J].经济地理,2015, 35(5):65-71.
[25]张引,杨庆媛,闵婕.重庆市新型城镇化质量与生态环境承载力耦合分析[J].地理学报,2016, 71(5):817-828.
[26]王磊,王琰琰,张宇.城市土地利用效益与城市化耦合协调性分析—以环渤海地区27个城市为例[J].生态经济,2017, 33(5):25-28.
[27]廖重斌.环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系—以珠江三角洲城市群为例[J].热带地理,1999,19(2):171-177.
[28]希尔(美)等著,张成思译注.初级计量经济学:EVIEWS的应用[M].沈阳:东北财经大学,2010:201-270.
[29]韩瑞玲,佟连军,朱绍华,路紫.基于ARMA模型的沈阳经济区经济与环境协调发展研究[J].地理科学,2014, 34(1):32-39.
[30]卢小丽,何光.基于ARMA模型的四川省农村居民收入趋势预测[J].中国农学通报,2012, 28(5):110-114.
[2] Zhang K H, Song S. Rural-urban migration and urbanization in China:Evidence from time-series and cross-section analyses[J]. China Economic Review, 2003, 14(4):386-400.
[3]陆大道,姚士谋,刘慧. 2006中国区域发展报告:城镇化进程及空间扩张[M].北京:商务印书馆,2007.
[4]李海东,王帅,刘阳.基于灰色关联理论和距离协同模型的区域协同发展评价方法及实证[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014, 34(7):1749-1755.
[5]章杰宽.区域旅游可持续发展系统的动态仿真[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011, 31(11):2101-2107.
[6]方创琳,王德利.中国城市化发展质量的综合测度与提升路径[J].地理研究,2011,30(11):1931-1946.
[7] Roger C K, YAO S M. Urbanization and sustainable metropolitan development in China:Pattern problem and prospects[J]. Geo-Journal, 1999(49):269-277.
[8] Henderson J V. Urbanization in China:Policy issues and options[R]. China Economic Research and Advisory Programmer, 2009.
[9] Baklanov P Y. Indicators, criteria and limitations of regional sustainable development[J]. Geoinformation Science, 2007, 9(1):35-45.
[10]李继红,马洪云,黄启.山东省城市化与经济发展协调性研究[J].资源与产业,2016, 18(2):23-30.
[11]高翔,鱼腾飞,程慧波.西北地区水资源环境与城市化系统耦合的时空分异-以西陇海兰新经济带甘肃段为例[J].干旱区地理,2010, 33(6):1010-1018.
[12]熊东旭,陈荣.南京城市化与水资源环境耦合关系实证研究[J].河南师范大学学报,2015, 43(5):95-101.
[13]王飞,李景保,陈晓,徐志.皖江城市带城市化与水资源环境耦合的时空变异分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(1):1-6.
[14]刘耀彬,李仁东,宋学锋.中国区域城市化与生态环境耦合的关联分析[J].地理学报,2005, 60(2):237-247.
[15]郭月婷,徐建刚.基于模糊物元的淮河流域城市化与生态环境系统的耦合协调测度[J].应用生态学报,2013, 24(5):1244-1252.
[16]李海燕,陈晓红基于SD的城市化与生态环境耦合发展研究—以黑龙江省东部煤电化基地为例[J].生态经济,2014, 30(12):109-115.
[17]刘定慧,杨永春.区域经济-旅游-生态环境耦合协调度研究—以安徽省为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(7):892-896.
[18]周成,冯学钢,唐睿.区域经济-生态环境-旅游产业耦合协调发展分析与预测—以长江经济带沿线各省市为例[J].经济地理,2016, 36(3):186-193.
[19]姜磊,周海峰,柏玲.长江中游城市群经济-城市-社会-环境耦合度空间差异分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017, 26(5):649-656.
[20]刘雷,喻忠磊,徐晓红,张华.城市创新能力与城市化水平的耦合协调分析—以山东省为例[J].经济地理,2016, 36(6):59-66.
[21]李双江,胡亚妮,崔建升,沈洪艳.石家庄经济与人居环境耦合协调演化分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013, 27(4):8-15.
[22]梁威,刘满凤.我国战略性新兴产业与传统产业耦合协调发展及时空分异[J].经济地理,2017, 37(4):117-126.
[23]孜比布拉·司马义,苏力叶·木沙江,帕夏古·阿不来提.阿克苏市城市化与生态环境综合水平协调度评析[J].地理研究,2011,30(3):496-504.
[24]李涛,廖和平,杨伟,庄伟,时仅.重庆市“土地、人口、产业”城镇化质量的时空分异及耦合协调性[J].经济地理,2015, 35(5):65-71.
[25]张引,杨庆媛,闵婕.重庆市新型城镇化质量与生态环境承载力耦合分析[J].地理学报,2016, 71(5):817-828.
[26]王磊,王琰琰,张宇.城市土地利用效益与城市化耦合协调性分析—以环渤海地区27个城市为例[J].生态经济,2017, 33(5):25-28.
[27]廖重斌.环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系—以珠江三角洲城市群为例[J].热带地理,1999,19(2):171-177.
[28]希尔(美)等著,张成思译注.初级计量经济学:EVIEWS的应用[M].沈阳:东北财经大学,2010:201-270.
[29]韩瑞玲,佟连军,朱绍华,路紫.基于ARMA模型的沈阳经济区经济与环境协调发展研究[J].地理科学,2014, 34(1):32-39.
[30]卢小丽,何光.基于ARMA模型的四川省农村居民收入趋势预测[J].中国农学通报,2012, 28(5):110-114.
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