新兴产业突破性技术由路径向轨道演化的机制
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摘要
技术是驱动经济发展的重要力量,产业发展技术路径一直是国内外研究的热点,但对技术路径与技术轨道之间的关系以及二者之间演化机制的研究稍显匮乏。从产业经济和战略转型的需求出发,探讨路径依赖与路径突破的内涵,将其融入到技术轨道理论中,以此构建突破性技术由路径向轨道演化的模型,并引用动态演化博弈模型在技术轨道跃迁临界点处进行创新模式选择。研究结果表明:创新风险较大时,产业内创新能力强的主体更容易选择突破式创新;反之,创新风险较小时,市场偏好会决定产业内各主体创新模式的选择。
Technology is an important force driving economic development, the technological path of industrial development has always been a hot topic at home and abroad, however, the relationship between technological path and technical track and the evolutionary mechanism between the two are somewhat scarce. Based on the demand of industrial economy and strategic transformation, this paper discusses the connotation of path dependence and path breakthrough, and integrates it into the theory of technological track, so as to construct the model of evolution of breakthrough technology from path to orbit, and to select the innovation mode at the critical point of technological orbital transition by using dynamic evolutionary game model. The results show that, when the innovation risk is large,the main body with strong innovation ability in the industry is easier to choose breakthrough innovation; on the contrary, when the innovation risk is small, the market preference will determine the choice of the innovation mode of each subject in the industry.
Technology is an important force driving economic development, the technological path of industrial development has always been a hot topic at home and abroad, however, the relationship between technological path and technical track and the evolutionary mechanism between the two are somewhat scarce. Based on the demand of industrial economy and strategic transformation, this paper discusses the connotation of path dependence and path breakthrough, and integrates it into the theory of technological track, so as to construct the model of evolution of breakthrough technology from path to orbit, and to select the innovation mode at the critical point of technological orbital transition by using dynamic evolutionary game model. The results show that, when the innovation risk is large,the main body with strong innovation ability in the industry is easier to choose breakthrough innovation; on the contrary, when the innovation risk is small, the market preference will determine the choice of the innovation mode of each subject in the industry.
引文
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[29]熊鸿儒,王毅,林敏,等.技术轨道研究:述评与展望[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2012,33(7):21-28.
[2]DOSI G.Technological paradigms and technological trajectories:a suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change[J].Research Policy,1982,11:147-162.
[3]姜红,赵树宽,余海晴.技术轨道理论研究综述及展望[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2011(7):11-14.
[4]ARTHUR W B. The economics of risks to life[J].American Economic Review,1981,71(1):54-56.
[5]DAVID P A. Clio and the economics of QWERTY[J].American Economic Review,1985,75(2):332-337.
[6]NORTH D C. The contribution of the new institutional economics to an understanding of the transition problem[M]//UNUWIDER,ATKINSON A B, BASU K, et al.Wider perspectives on global development:studies in development economics and policy.London:Palgrave Macmillan WIDER Annual Lectures,1997:l-15.
[7]MASKELL P, MALMBERG A.Myopia, knowledge development and cluster evolution[J]. Journal of Economic Geography,2007,7(7):603-618.
[8]ROMANELLI E, KHESSINA M O. Regional industrial identity:cluster configurations and economic development[J].Organization Science, 2005,16(4):344-358.
[9]秦海.制度、演化与路径依赖制度分析综合的理论尝试[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004:211-226.
[10]GARUD R, NAYYAR P R.Transformative capacity:continual structuring by intertemporal technology transfer[J].Strategic Management Journal, 1994, 15(5):365-385.
[11]冯科,曾德明.技术标准的路径依赖和路径突破:产业创新网络结构嵌入性的TES作用机制[J].系统工程,2016,34(11):73-80.
[12]尹贻梅,刘志高,刘卫东.路径依赖理论研究进展评析[J].外国经济与管理,2011,33(8):1-7.
[13]张燕航.基于技术轨道视角的技术创新演化机制研究[J].科技进步与对策,2015,32(11):10-14.
[14]KASH D E, RYCROF T R.Emerging patterns of complex technological innovation[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2002, 69(6):581-606.
[15]CHRISTENSEN C M, ROSENBLOOM R S. Explaining the attacker's advantage:technological paradigms, organizational dynamics, and the value network[J].Research Policy, 1995,24(2):233-257.
[16]PATEL P, PAVITT K.Uneven(and divergent)technological accumulation among advanced countries:evidence and a framework of explanation[J].Industrial&Corporate Change, 1994,3(3):759-787.
[17]许庆瑞.研究、发展与技术创新管理[M].北京:高等教育出版社, 2010.
[18]吴贵生.技术创新管理:中国企业自主创新之路[M].北京:机械工业出社,2011:65-74.
[19]杜跃平,高雄,赵红菊.路径依赖与企业顺沿技术轨道的演化创新[J].研究与发展管理,2004(4):52-57.
[20]武建龙,王宏起.战略性新兴产业突破性技术创新路径研究:基于模块化视角[J].科学学研究,2014,32(4):508-518.
[21]ARTHUR W B. Competing technologies, increasing returns and lock-in by historical events[J].The Economic Journal,1989,99(39):116-131.
[22]周洋,张庆普.高端颠覆性创新的技术演进轨迹和市场扩散路径[J].研究与发展管理,2017,29(6):99-108.
[23]张立超,刘怡君.技术轨道的跃迁与技术创新的演化发展[J].科学学研究,2015,33(1):137-145.
[24]林敏,吴贵生,熊鸿儒.技术轨道理论对后发者追赶的启示研究[J].中国科技论坛,2013(9):13-19.
[25]刘昌年,梅强.我国高技术企业基于技术轨道的自主创新能力提升途径研究[J].科学管理研究,2006(5):5-8.
[26]柳卸林.技术轨道和自主创新[J].中国科技论坛,1997(2):32-35.
[27]游达明,杨晓辉,朱桂菊.多主体参与下企业技术创新模式动态选择研究[J].中国管理科学,2015(3):151-158.
[28]陈德智,陈香堂.技术跨越系统演化分析[J].管理科学,2005(6):78-81.
[29]熊鸿儒,王毅,林敏,等.技术轨道研究:述评与展望[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2012,33(7):21-28.