含分布式电源及灵活负荷的配电网电量合约市场
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摘要
针对含有分布式电源和灵活负荷的配电网电量合约市场,首先介绍了市场结构、交易流程和合约内容,并对市场中各组成部分进行了建模。利用Copula理论,对分布式电源出力的随机特性及相关性进行计算,从而在已知预测出力情况下得到分布式电源实际出力的条件概率密度。在此基础上,以最小化总购电成本为目标,考虑本地电量平衡概率约束,建立了电量合约市场集中出清优化模型。基于Shapley值衡量负荷灵活性对降低购电总成本的贡献,进而提出了购电成本分摊方法。通过算例分析了分布式电源自身预测精度、与其他电源互补性以及负荷灵活性对最终合约电价的影响。验证了所提出的模型能够将电源和负荷的特性反应在最终的电价上,利用市场的手段来匹配分布式电源的不确定性和灵活负荷的灵活性,从而减少配电网给输电网带来的电量平衡方面的压力,促进分布式电源的就地消纳。
This paper firstly analyzes the structure, transaction process and contract content of distribution electricity contract market. Then various components comprising the market are modeled. Based on historical data, Copula theory is used to calculate the stochastic characteristics and correlation of distributed generations. Conditional probability density of the distributed generations is obtained under the case of known predicted output of each distributed generation. On this basis, a centralized market clearing optimization model is proposed to minimize the total cost of purchasing electricity considering local power balance probability constraint. The contribution of each flexible load to total purchase cost is measured based on Shapley value, and a purchase cost allocation mechanism is proposed. Through case studies, the influence of the distributed generation prediction accuracy, complementarity with other distributed generations and load flexibility on contract price is analyzed. It is verified that the proposed model can reflect the characteristics of distributed generations and flexible loads in electricity contract price. Therefore, the proposed model can match the uncertainty of the distributed generations and the flexibility of the load through market measures, thus promoting local accommodation of distributed generations and reducing the power balance pressure of transmission network.
This paper firstly analyzes the structure, transaction process and contract content of distribution electricity contract market. Then various components comprising the market are modeled. Based on historical data, Copula theory is used to calculate the stochastic characteristics and correlation of distributed generations. Conditional probability density of the distributed generations is obtained under the case of known predicted output of each distributed generation. On this basis, a centralized market clearing optimization model is proposed to minimize the total cost of purchasing electricity considering local power balance probability constraint. The contribution of each flexible load to total purchase cost is measured based on Shapley value, and a purchase cost allocation mechanism is proposed. Through case studies, the influence of the distributed generation prediction accuracy, complementarity with other distributed generations and load flexibility on contract price is analyzed. It is verified that the proposed model can reflect the characteristics of distributed generations and flexible loads in electricity contract price. Therefore, the proposed model can match the uncertainty of the distributed generations and the flexibility of the load through market measures, thus promoting local accommodation of distributed generations and reducing the power balance pressure of transmission network.
引文
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[15]Tian Peigen,Xiao Xi,Wang Kui,et al.A hierarchical energy management system based on hierarchical optimization for microgrid community economic operation[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2016,7(5):2230-2241.
[16]曾鸣,程俊,钱霞,等.分布式发电竞价上网市场交易机制研究[J].华东电力,2012,40(1):1-4.Zeng Ming,Cheng Jun,Qian Xia,et al.Market trading mechanism research on distributed generation bidding[J].East China Electric Power,2012,40(1):1-4(in Chinese).
[17]乐健,柳永妍,叶曦,等.含高渗透率分布式电能资源的区域电网市场化运营模式[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(12):3343-3354.Le Jian,Liu Yongyan,Ye Xi,et al.Market-oriented operation pattern of regional power network integration with high penetration level of distributed energy resources[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(12):3343-3354(in Chinese).
[18]陈启鑫,王克道,陈思捷,等.面向分布式主体的可交易能源系统:体系架构、机制设计与关键技术[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(3):1-7.Chen Qixin,Wang Kedao,Chen Sijie,et al.Transactive energy system for distributed agents:architecture,mechanism design and key technologies[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2018,42(3):1-7(in Chinese).
[19]左坤雨,刘友波,向月,等.基于信息互动的分布式可再生能源多代理交易竞价模型[J].电网技术,2017,41(8):2477-2484.Zuo Kunyu,Liu Youbo,Xiang Yue,et al.Multi-agent transaction bidding model for distributed renewable energy based on information interaction[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(8):2477-2484(in Chinese).
[20]Baeyens E,Bitar E Y,Khargonekar P P,et al.Coalitional aggregation of wind power[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2013,28(4):3774-3784.
[21]Bitar E Y,Rajagopal R,Khargonekar P P,et al.Bringing wind energy to market[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2012,27(3):1225-1235.
[22]陈颖,江曦源,于智同,等.区域配电网内分布式电源和负载联盟交易模式设计和分析[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(14):78-86.Chen Ying,Jiang Xiyuan,Yu Zhitong,et al.Coalition trading mode design and analysis for distributed generators and loads in regional distribution network[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(14):78-86(in Chinese).
[23]Wu Yuan,Tan Xiaoqi,Qian Liping,et al.Optimal pricing and energy scheduling for hybrid energy trading market in future smart grid[J].IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics,2015,11(6):1585-1596.
[24]Zhang Chunyu,Wang Qi,Wang Jianhui,et al.Real-time procurement strategies of a proactive distribution company with aggregator-based demand response[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2018,9(2):766-776.
[25]Wang Hao,Huang Jianwei.Cooperative planning of renewable generations for interconnected microgrids[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2016,7(5):2486-2496.
[26]Ahlstrom M,Jones L,Zavadil R,et al.The future of wind forecasting and utility operations[J].IEEE Power and Energy Magazine,2005,3(6):57-64.
[27]Cherubini U,Luciano E,Vecchiato W.Copula method in finance[M].John Wiley&Sons,2004.
[28]Zhang Ning,Kang Chongqing,Xia Qing,et al.Modeling conditional forecast error for wind power in generation scheduling[J].IEEETransactions on Power Systems,2014,29(3):1316-1324.
[29]张昭遂,孙元章,李国杰,等.计及风电功率不确定性的经济调度问题求解方法[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(22):125-130.Zhang Zhaosui,Sun Yuanzhang,Li Guojie,et al.A solution of economic dispatch problem considering wind power uncertainty[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(22):125-130(in Chinese).
[30]Bludszuweit H,Dominguez-Navarro J A,Llombart A.Statistical analysis of wind power forecast error[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2008,23(3):983-991.
[31]国家发展改革委,国家能源局.关于开展分布式发电市场化交易试点的通知(发改能源[2017]1901号)[Z].2017-10-31.
[32]Littlechild S C,Owen G.A simple expression for the Shapley value in a special case[J].Management Science,1973,20(3):370-372.
[2]王成山,李鹏.分布式发电、微网与智能配电网的发展与挑战[J].电力系统自动化,2010,34(2):10-14.Wang Chengshan,Li Peng.Development and challenges of distributed generation,the micro-grid and smart distribution system[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2010,34(2):10-14(in Chinese).
[3]Brown H E,Suryanarayanan S,Natarajan S A,et al.Improving reliability of islanded distribution systems with distributed renewable energy resources[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2012,3(4):2028-2038.
[4]梁才浩,段献忠.分布式发电及其对电力系统的影响[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(12):53-56.Liang Caihao,Duan Xianzhong.Distributed generation and its impact on power system[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2001,25(12):53-56(in Chinese).
[5]Khamis A,Shareef H,Bizkevelci E,et al.A review of islanding detection techniques for renewable distributed generation systems[J].Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2013,28:483-493.
[6]袁小明,程时杰,文劲宇.储能技术在解决大规模风电并网问题中的应用前景分析[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(1):14-18.Yuan Xiaoming,Cheng Shijie,Wen Jinyu.Prospects analysis of energy storage application in grid integration of large-scale wind power[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(1):14-18(in Chinese).
[7]Mohammadi J,Rahimi-Kian A,Ghazizadeh M S.Aggregated wind power and flexible load offering strategy[J].IET Renewable Power Generation,2011,5(6):439-447.
[8]Xu Zhiwei,Su Wencong,Hu Zechun,et al.A hierarchical framework for coordinated charging of plug-in electric vehicles in China[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2016,7(1):428-438.
[9]张华一,文福拴,张璨,等.计及舒适度的家庭能源中心运行优化模型[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(20):32-39.Zhang Huayi,Wen Fushuan,Zhang Can,et al.Operation optimization model of home energy hubs considering comfort level of customers[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(20):32-39(in Chinese).
[10]Rahnama S,Bendtsen J D,Stoustrup J,et al.Robust aggregator design for industrial thermal energy storages in smart grid[J].IEEETransactions on Smart Grid,2017,8(2):902-916.
[11]Cui Qiang,Wang Xiuli,Wang Xifan,et al.Residential appliances direct load control in real-time using cooperative game[J].IEEETransactions on Power Systems,2016,31(1):226-233.
[12]Wang Zhaoyu,Chen Bokan,Wang Jianhui,et al.Coordinated energy management of networked microgrids in distribution systems[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2015,6(1):45-53.
[13]顾伟,任佳依,高君,等.含分布式电源和可调负荷的售电公司优化调度模型[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(14):37-44.Gu Wei,Ren Jiayi,Gao Jun,et al.Optimal dispatching model of electricity retailers considering distributed generator and adjustable load[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(14):37-44(in Chinese).
[14]赵波,薛美东,陈荣柱,等.高可再生能源渗透率下考虑预测误差的微电网经济调度模型[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(7):1-8.Zhao Bo,Xue Meidong,Chen Rongzhu,et al.An economic dispatch model for microgrid with high renewable energy resource penetration considering forecast errors[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(7):1-8(in Chinese).
[15]Tian Peigen,Xiao Xi,Wang Kui,et al.A hierarchical energy management system based on hierarchical optimization for microgrid community economic operation[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2016,7(5):2230-2241.
[16]曾鸣,程俊,钱霞,等.分布式发电竞价上网市场交易机制研究[J].华东电力,2012,40(1):1-4.Zeng Ming,Cheng Jun,Qian Xia,et al.Market trading mechanism research on distributed generation bidding[J].East China Electric Power,2012,40(1):1-4(in Chinese).
[17]乐健,柳永妍,叶曦,等.含高渗透率分布式电能资源的区域电网市场化运营模式[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(12):3343-3354.Le Jian,Liu Yongyan,Ye Xi,et al.Market-oriented operation pattern of regional power network integration with high penetration level of distributed energy resources[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(12):3343-3354(in Chinese).
[18]陈启鑫,王克道,陈思捷,等.面向分布式主体的可交易能源系统:体系架构、机制设计与关键技术[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(3):1-7.Chen Qixin,Wang Kedao,Chen Sijie,et al.Transactive energy system for distributed agents:architecture,mechanism design and key technologies[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2018,42(3):1-7(in Chinese).
[19]左坤雨,刘友波,向月,等.基于信息互动的分布式可再生能源多代理交易竞价模型[J].电网技术,2017,41(8):2477-2484.Zuo Kunyu,Liu Youbo,Xiang Yue,et al.Multi-agent transaction bidding model for distributed renewable energy based on information interaction[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(8):2477-2484(in Chinese).
[20]Baeyens E,Bitar E Y,Khargonekar P P,et al.Coalitional aggregation of wind power[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2013,28(4):3774-3784.
[21]Bitar E Y,Rajagopal R,Khargonekar P P,et al.Bringing wind energy to market[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2012,27(3):1225-1235.
[22]陈颖,江曦源,于智同,等.区域配电网内分布式电源和负载联盟交易模式设计和分析[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(14):78-86.Chen Ying,Jiang Xiyuan,Yu Zhitong,et al.Coalition trading mode design and analysis for distributed generators and loads in regional distribution network[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(14):78-86(in Chinese).
[23]Wu Yuan,Tan Xiaoqi,Qian Liping,et al.Optimal pricing and energy scheduling for hybrid energy trading market in future smart grid[J].IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics,2015,11(6):1585-1596.
[24]Zhang Chunyu,Wang Qi,Wang Jianhui,et al.Real-time procurement strategies of a proactive distribution company with aggregator-based demand response[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2018,9(2):766-776.
[25]Wang Hao,Huang Jianwei.Cooperative planning of renewable generations for interconnected microgrids[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2016,7(5):2486-2496.
[26]Ahlstrom M,Jones L,Zavadil R,et al.The future of wind forecasting and utility operations[J].IEEE Power and Energy Magazine,2005,3(6):57-64.
[27]Cherubini U,Luciano E,Vecchiato W.Copula method in finance[M].John Wiley&Sons,2004.
[28]Zhang Ning,Kang Chongqing,Xia Qing,et al.Modeling conditional forecast error for wind power in generation scheduling[J].IEEETransactions on Power Systems,2014,29(3):1316-1324.
[29]张昭遂,孙元章,李国杰,等.计及风电功率不确定性的经济调度问题求解方法[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(22):125-130.Zhang Zhaosui,Sun Yuanzhang,Li Guojie,et al.A solution of economic dispatch problem considering wind power uncertainty[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(22):125-130(in Chinese).
[30]Bludszuweit H,Dominguez-Navarro J A,Llombart A.Statistical analysis of wind power forecast error[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2008,23(3):983-991.
[31]国家发展改革委,国家能源局.关于开展分布式发电市场化交易试点的通知(发改能源[2017]1901号)[Z].2017-10-31.
[32]Littlechild S C,Owen G.A simple expression for the Shapley value in a special case[J].Management Science,1973,20(3):370-372.