河南省花生连阴雨灾害气象指数保险设计
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摘要
为了促进农业保险公司客观、快捷地提供气象灾害的经济补偿,本文基于长序列的历史气象资料和花生种植面积、总产量和单产量数据,确定不同减产率范围下对应的连阴雨灾害指数临界值,建立连阴雨天气指数保险模型,设计出适用于研究区域的连阴雨天气指数保险产品。结果表明:依据连阴雨灾害指数,确定兰考县、虞城县、通许县的免赔额为0,开封县、民权县等6个县的免赔额为10%,睢县、郸城等4个县的免赔额为15%,淮阳、柘城等6个县的免赔额为20%,确定了不同区域的纯保险费率及保费,设计了农业气象保险指数合同。该天气指数保险产品采用客观的气象数据定损,操作性强,可有效转移花生生长气象灾害风险,促进农业保险的可持续发展。
To provide technical support for effectively improving the insurance company's compensation for meteorological disasters,we employed long-sequence meteorological dataset,planting area,total production,and yield per unit area of peanut to quantify the threshold for disaster indices of the continuous rain days corresponding to different yield-reduction rates,established continuous rain weather index insurance models,and designed insurance products of continuous rain weather index suitable to the study area. According to the continuous rain disaster index,the deductible amount was 0% in Lankao,Yucheng and Tongxu counties,10% in six counties such as Kaifeng,15% in four counties such as Suixian,and 20% in six counties such as Huaiyang.The pure insurance rates and insurance expenses in different regions were determined,and an agro-meteorological insurance index contract was designed. The weather index insurance products adopt objective meteorological data to fix the loss and are very maneuverable,which can effectively transfer the risk of meteorological disasters during peanut growth and help agricultural insurance companies to provide economic compensation for meteorological disasters objectively and quickly.
To provide technical support for effectively improving the insurance company's compensation for meteorological disasters,we employed long-sequence meteorological dataset,planting area,total production,and yield per unit area of peanut to quantify the threshold for disaster indices of the continuous rain days corresponding to different yield-reduction rates,established continuous rain weather index insurance models,and designed insurance products of continuous rain weather index suitable to the study area. According to the continuous rain disaster index,the deductible amount was 0% in Lankao,Yucheng and Tongxu counties,10% in six counties such as Kaifeng,15% in four counties such as Suixian,and 20% in six counties such as Huaiyang.The pure insurance rates and insurance expenses in different regions were determined,and an agro-meteorological insurance index contract was designed. The weather index insurance products adopt objective meteorological data to fix the loss and are very maneuverable,which can effectively transfer the risk of meteorological disasters during peanut growth and help agricultural insurance companies to provide economic compensation for meteorological disasters objectively and quickly.
引文
成林,刘荣花.2012.河南省夏玉米花期连阴雨灾害风险区划.生态学杂志,31(12):3075-3079.
陈思宁,申双和,刘敏,等.2010.湖北省茶树气象灾害模糊综合评价及区划.农业工程学报,26(12):298-303.
邓国,周玉淑,李世辛.1999.农业灾害保险和作物产量纯保险费率区划//中国农业灾害风险评价与对策.北京:气象出版社:129-149.
李睿涛,刘京会,周洪奎,等.2017.华北平原冬小麦因旱减产气象指数保险产品研究.灾害学,32(3):216-221.
刘璐,马杰.2012.陕西苹果成熟期连阴雨指数及预报方法研究.气象,38(8):1012-1016.
刘荣花,朱自玺,方文松,等.2006.华北平原冬小麦干旱灾损风险区划.生态学杂志,25(9):1068-1072.
刘映宁,贺文丽,李艳丽,等.2010.陕西果区苹果花期冻害农业保险风险指数的设计.中国农业气象,31(1):125
娄伟平,吴利红,邱新法,等.2009.柑桔农业气象灾害风险评估及农业保险产品设计.自然资源学报,24(6):1330-1340.
娄伟平,吴利红,姚益平.2010.水稻暴雨灾害保险气象理赔指数设计.中国农业科学,43(3):632-639.
娄伟平,吉宗伟,邱新法,等.2011.茶叶霜冻气象指数保险设计.自然资源学报,26(12):2050-2060.
毛裕定,吴利红,苗长明,等.2007.浙江省柑桔冻害气象指数保险参考设计.中国农业气象,28(2):226-230.
孙锦铨,陈永秀.1991.长江中下游春季连阴雨天气气候分析.气象,17(5):29-34.
王春乙,郑昌玲.2007.农业气象灾害影响评估和防御技术研究进展.气象研究与应用,28(1):1-5.
王春乙,张玉静,张继权.2016.华北地区冬小麦主要气象灾害风险评价.农业工程学报,32(S1):203-213.
吴荣军,史继清,关福来,等.2013.基于风险区划的农业干旱保险费率厘定-以河北省冬麦区为例.气象,39(12):1649-1655.
杨太明,刘布春,孙喜波,等.2013.安徽省冬小麦种植保险天气指数设计与应用.中国农业气象,34(2):229-235.
杨太明,许莹,孙喜波,等.2016.安徽省夏玉米干旱天气指数保险产品设计及应用.气象,42(4):450-455.
周惠成,张丹.2009.可变模糊集理论在旱涝灾害评价中的应用研究.农业工程学报,25(9):56-61.
Barry KG,Alan PK.1998.Nonparametric estimation of crop yield distributions:Implications for rating group-risk crop insurance contracts.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,80:139-153.
Barry JB,Olivier M.2007.Weather index insurance for agriculture and rural areas in lower-income countries.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,89:1241-1247.
Hess U,Syroka J.2005.Weather-based insurance in Southern Africa:The case of Malawi.Agriculture and Rural Development Discussion Paper 13,the World Bank,Washington,DC:1-78.
Mahul O.1999.Optimum area yield crop insurance.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,81:75-82.
Makki SS.2002.Crop insurance:Inherent problems and innovative solutions.Tweeten L,Thompson S,eds.Agricultural Policy for the 21st Century.Ames:Iowa State University Press:2002.
Wenner M,Arias D.2003.Agricultural insurance in Latin America:Where are we?Paving the way forward for rural finance.An international conference on best practices,International Trade Center,Washington:1-18.
陈思宁,申双和,刘敏,等.2010.湖北省茶树气象灾害模糊综合评价及区划.农业工程学报,26(12):298-303.
邓国,周玉淑,李世辛.1999.农业灾害保险和作物产量纯保险费率区划//中国农业灾害风险评价与对策.北京:气象出版社:129-149.
李睿涛,刘京会,周洪奎,等.2017.华北平原冬小麦因旱减产气象指数保险产品研究.灾害学,32(3):216-221.
刘璐,马杰.2012.陕西苹果成熟期连阴雨指数及预报方法研究.气象,38(8):1012-1016.
刘荣花,朱自玺,方文松,等.2006.华北平原冬小麦干旱灾损风险区划.生态学杂志,25(9):1068-1072.
刘映宁,贺文丽,李艳丽,等.2010.陕西果区苹果花期冻害农业保险风险指数的设计.中国农业气象,31(1):125
娄伟平,吴利红,邱新法,等.2009.柑桔农业气象灾害风险评估及农业保险产品设计.自然资源学报,24(6):1330-1340.
娄伟平,吴利红,姚益平.2010.水稻暴雨灾害保险气象理赔指数设计.中国农业科学,43(3):632-639.
娄伟平,吉宗伟,邱新法,等.2011.茶叶霜冻气象指数保险设计.自然资源学报,26(12):2050-2060.
毛裕定,吴利红,苗长明,等.2007.浙江省柑桔冻害气象指数保险参考设计.中国农业气象,28(2):226-230.
孙锦铨,陈永秀.1991.长江中下游春季连阴雨天气气候分析.气象,17(5):29-34.
王春乙,郑昌玲.2007.农业气象灾害影响评估和防御技术研究进展.气象研究与应用,28(1):1-5.
王春乙,张玉静,张继权.2016.华北地区冬小麦主要气象灾害风险评价.农业工程学报,32(S1):203-213.
吴荣军,史继清,关福来,等.2013.基于风险区划的农业干旱保险费率厘定-以河北省冬麦区为例.气象,39(12):1649-1655.
杨太明,刘布春,孙喜波,等.2013.安徽省冬小麦种植保险天气指数设计与应用.中国农业气象,34(2):229-235.
杨太明,许莹,孙喜波,等.2016.安徽省夏玉米干旱天气指数保险产品设计及应用.气象,42(4):450-455.
周惠成,张丹.2009.可变模糊集理论在旱涝灾害评价中的应用研究.农业工程学报,25(9):56-61.
Barry KG,Alan PK.1998.Nonparametric estimation of crop yield distributions:Implications for rating group-risk crop insurance contracts.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,80:139-153.
Barry JB,Olivier M.2007.Weather index insurance for agriculture and rural areas in lower-income countries.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,89:1241-1247.
Hess U,Syroka J.2005.Weather-based insurance in Southern Africa:The case of Malawi.Agriculture and Rural Development Discussion Paper 13,the World Bank,Washington,DC:1-78.
Mahul O.1999.Optimum area yield crop insurance.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,81:75-82.
Makki SS.2002.Crop insurance:Inherent problems and innovative solutions.Tweeten L,Thompson S,eds.Agricultural Policy for the 21st Century.Ames:Iowa State University Press:2002.
Wenner M,Arias D.2003.Agricultural insurance in Latin America:Where are we?Paving the way forward for rural finance.An international conference on best practices,International Trade Center,Washington:1-18.