资本账户开放与经济发展方式转变——基于金融发展和金融稳定的中介效应分析
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摘要
基于跨国面板数据库,采用SYS-GMM估计方法和中介效应模型研究了法定和事实资本账户开放对经济发展方式转变的影响及传导机制。结果显示:在综合效应和直接效应方面,法定资本账户开放对经济发展方式转变具有显著促进作用,而事实资本账户开放则抑制了经济发展方式转变;在间接传导机制方面,无论是法定还是事实资本账户开放均通过金融发展促进经济发展方式转变,通过金融波动抑制经济发展方式转变;异质性分析发现,事实资本账户开放主要抑制了中低收入国家(地区)经济发展方式转变,对高收入国家(地区)影响程度较小甚至不显著;金融发展水平越高越有利于降低事实资本账户开放对经济发展方式转变的负向影响;相较于固定汇率制度,浮动汇率制度条件下,事实资本账户开放对经济发展方式转变带来的负向影响程度更小。
Based on the multinational panel database,the SYS-GMM estimation method and mediation effect model are used to study the impact and transmission mechanism of legal and factual capital account opening on the transformation of economic development mode.The results show that in terms of comprehensive effects and direct effects,the opening of the statutory capital account has a significant role in promoting the transformation of the economic development mode,while the opening of the factual capital account inhibits the transformation of the economic development mode;in terms of the indirect transmission mechanism,both opening of the statutory capital account or factual capital account promote the transformation of economic development through financial development,and inhibit the transformation of economic development mode through financial fluctuations.Heterogeneity analysis finds that the opening of the factual capital account mainly inhibits the transformation of the economic development mode of low-and middle-income countries(regions),while the impact on high-income countries(regions)is small or even insignificant;the higher the level of financial development,the more favorable it is to reduce the negative impact of the opening of the factual capital account on the transformation of economic development mode;compared with the fixed exchange rate system,under the condition of the floating exchange rate system,the negative impact of the opening of the factual capital account on the transformation of the economic development mode is even smaller.
Based on the multinational panel database,the SYS-GMM estimation method and mediation effect model are used to study the impact and transmission mechanism of legal and factual capital account opening on the transformation of economic development mode.The results show that in terms of comprehensive effects and direct effects,the opening of the statutory capital account has a significant role in promoting the transformation of the economic development mode,while the opening of the factual capital account inhibits the transformation of the economic development mode;in terms of the indirect transmission mechanism,both opening of the statutory capital account or factual capital account promote the transformation of economic development through financial development,and inhibit the transformation of economic development mode through financial fluctuations.Heterogeneity analysis finds that the opening of the factual capital account mainly inhibits the transformation of the economic development mode of low-and middle-income countries(regions),while the impact on high-income countries(regions)is small or even insignificant;the higher the level of financial development,the more favorable it is to reduce the negative impact of the opening of the factual capital account on the transformation of economic development mode;compared with the fixed exchange rate system,under the condition of the floating exchange rate system,the negative impact of the opening of the factual capital account on the transformation of the economic development mode is even smaller.
引文
[1]EICHENGREEN B,GULLAPALLI R,PANIZZA U.Capital Account Liberalization,Financial Development and Industry Growth:A Synthetic View[J].Journal of International Money&Finance,2011,30(6):1090-1106.
[2]KLEIN M W,OLIVEI G P.Capital Account Liberalization,Financial Depth,and Economic Growth[J].Journal of International Money&Finance,2008,27(6):861-875.
[3]JEANNE O.Capital Flow Management[J].American Economic Review,2012,102(3):203-206.
[4]余永定.最后的屏障:资本项目自由化与人民币国际化之辩[M].北京:东方出版社,2016.
[5]HENRY P B.Capital Account Liberalization:Theory,Evidence,and Speculation[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2007,45(4):887-935.
[6]苟琴,蔡辉,徐建国.资本账户开放与经济增长--长短期效应及渠道研究[J].经济科学,2018,(2):45-59.
[7]LARRAIN M,STUMPNER S.Capital Account Liberalization and Aggregate Productivity:The Role of Firm Capital Allocation[J].Journal of Finance,2017,72(4):1825-1855.
[8]林毅夫.我为什么不支持资本账户开放[N].21世纪经济报道,2013-08-05.
[9]RAJAN R G,ZINGALES L.The Great Reversals:The Politics of Financial Development in the Twentieth Century[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2003,69(1):5-50.
[10]CHINN M D,ITO H.What Matters for Financial Development?Capital Controls,Institutions,and Interactions[J].Journal of Development Economics,2006,81(1):163-192.
[11]LANE P R,MILESI-FERRETTI G M.The External Wealth of Nations Mark II:Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970-2004[J].Journal of International Economics,2007,73(2):223-250.
[12]陈雨露,马勇,阮卓阳.金融周期和金融波动如何影响经济增长与金融稳定[J].金融研究,2016,(2):1-22.
[13]SHAMBAUGH J C.The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2004,119(1):301-352.
[14]刘晓辉,张璟,甘顺利.资本账户自由化、实际资本控制与汇率制度选择--基于88个发展中国家的经验证据[J].国际金融研究,2015,(7):55-66.
[15]郭桂霞,彭艳.我国资本账户开放的门槛效应研究[J].金融研究,2016,(3):42-58.
(1)佩恩表数据库下载网址:www.ggdc.net/pwt。
(2)Chin-Ito数据库下载网址:http://web.pdx.edu/~-ito/Chinn-Ito_website.htm。
(1)EWN数据库下载网址:http://www.philiplane.org/EWN.html。
(2)截至目前,该数据库整理并测算了全球177个国家1960-2014年的汇率制度数据,数据库下载网址:http://www.nber.org/data/international-finance/#err。
(3)本文进行了单位根检验、协整检验,以及四种稳健性检验,限于篇幅,未有列出,如有需要,可向作者索取。
[2]KLEIN M W,OLIVEI G P.Capital Account Liberalization,Financial Depth,and Economic Growth[J].Journal of International Money&Finance,2008,27(6):861-875.
[3]JEANNE O.Capital Flow Management[J].American Economic Review,2012,102(3):203-206.
[4]余永定.最后的屏障:资本项目自由化与人民币国际化之辩[M].北京:东方出版社,2016.
[5]HENRY P B.Capital Account Liberalization:Theory,Evidence,and Speculation[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2007,45(4):887-935.
[6]苟琴,蔡辉,徐建国.资本账户开放与经济增长--长短期效应及渠道研究[J].经济科学,2018,(2):45-59.
[7]LARRAIN M,STUMPNER S.Capital Account Liberalization and Aggregate Productivity:The Role of Firm Capital Allocation[J].Journal of Finance,2017,72(4):1825-1855.
[8]林毅夫.我为什么不支持资本账户开放[N].21世纪经济报道,2013-08-05.
[9]RAJAN R G,ZINGALES L.The Great Reversals:The Politics of Financial Development in the Twentieth Century[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2003,69(1):5-50.
[10]CHINN M D,ITO H.What Matters for Financial Development?Capital Controls,Institutions,and Interactions[J].Journal of Development Economics,2006,81(1):163-192.
[11]LANE P R,MILESI-FERRETTI G M.The External Wealth of Nations Mark II:Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970-2004[J].Journal of International Economics,2007,73(2):223-250.
[12]陈雨露,马勇,阮卓阳.金融周期和金融波动如何影响经济增长与金融稳定[J].金融研究,2016,(2):1-22.
[13]SHAMBAUGH J C.The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2004,119(1):301-352.
[14]刘晓辉,张璟,甘顺利.资本账户自由化、实际资本控制与汇率制度选择--基于88个发展中国家的经验证据[J].国际金融研究,2015,(7):55-66.
[15]郭桂霞,彭艳.我国资本账户开放的门槛效应研究[J].金融研究,2016,(3):42-58.
(1)佩恩表数据库下载网址:www.ggdc.net/pwt。
(2)Chin-Ito数据库下载网址:http://web.pdx.edu/~-ito/Chinn-Ito_website.htm。
(1)EWN数据库下载网址:http://www.philiplane.org/EWN.html。
(2)截至目前,该数据库整理并测算了全球177个国家1960-2014年的汇率制度数据,数据库下载网址:http://www.nber.org/data/international-finance/#err。
(3)本文进行了单位根检验、协整检验,以及四种稳健性检验,限于篇幅,未有列出,如有需要,可向作者索取。