跨海大桥船桥碰撞模糊Bow-tie风险评估方法
|
摘要
为有效降低跨海大桥船桥碰撞风险、提高桥区水域安全,建立一种适用于跨海大桥的量化船桥碰撞风险评估方法。首先,结合Bow-tie模型与模糊集合理论,构建跨海大桥船桥碰撞风险评估的模糊Bow-tie模型来定量分析各结果事件概率;然后,用敏感性分析方法揭示船桥碰撞的主要影响因素;最后,通过对某跨海大桥通航风险评估,实例验证所建评估方法的有效性。结果表明:基于估的模糊Bow-tie模型的风险评估方法适用于跨海大桥船桥碰撞的风险评估,且实现评估由定性到定量的转变,为海事监管部门的安全管理提供决策支持。
In order to effectively reduce the risk of ship sea-bridge collision and improve the safety in bridge area,a new quantitative risk assessment method was therefore worked out. For working out the method,first,the Bow-tie model and the fuzzy set theory were combined to establish a fuzzy-Bow-tie model to quantitatively analyze the outcome events. Then the sensitivity analysis was applied to reveal the main impact factors leading to the collision. At last a risk assessment sample was given. The results show that the method based on fuzzy-Bow-tie model is suitable for quantitative assessment of risk of ship bridge collision,and that it can also provide decision support for safety management.
In order to effectively reduce the risk of ship sea-bridge collision and improve the safety in bridge area,a new quantitative risk assessment method was therefore worked out. For working out the method,first,the Bow-tie model and the fuzzy set theory were combined to establish a fuzzy-Bow-tie model to quantitatively analyze the outcome events. Then the sensitivity analysis was applied to reveal the main impact factors leading to the collision. At last a risk assessment sample was given. The results show that the method based on fuzzy-Bow-tie model is suitable for quantitative assessment of risk of ship bridge collision,and that it can also provide decision support for safety management.
引文
[1]SITHAO.基于模糊故障树和模糊逻辑系统的船桥碰撞安全性研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2015.SITHAO.Research on fuzzy fault tree and fuzzy logic system for safety assessment in ship bridge collision[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Jiaotong University,2015.
[2]向俊,朱现场,金允龙.船舶大型化进程的促进因素与制约因素分析[J].上海船舶运输科学研究所学报,2014,37(1):19-24.XIANG Jun,ZHU Xianchang,JIN Yunlong.Analysis of promotion and restriction factors in the process of the ship size growth[J].Journal of Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute,2014,37(1):19-24.
[3]王礼立,陈国虞,杨黎明.船桥碰撞过程引发的冲击动力学论题[J].振动与冲击,2015,34(3):14-22.WANG Lili,CHEN Guoyu,YANG Liming.Impact dynamics topics motivated by ship-bridge collision process[J].Journal of Vibration and Shock,2015,34(3):14-22
[4]WANG Lili,YANG Liming,HUANG Dejin,et al.An impact dynamics analysis on a new crashworthy device against ship-bridge collision[J].International Journal of Impact Engineering,2008,35(8):895-904.
[5]胡振彪,伏耀华,蔡文山,等.超大型油船撞击的非线性动力学行为数值模拟[J].中国航海,2016,39(4):81-86.HU Zhenbiao,FU Yaohua,CAI Wenshan,et al.Numerical simulation of nonlinear dynamic behaviors of VLCC collision[J].Navigation of China,2016,39(4):81-86.
[6]FAN Wei,YUAN Wancheng.Numerical simulation and analytical modeling of pile-supported structures subjected to ship collisions including soil-structure interaction[J].Ocean Engineering,2014,91(11):11-27.
[7]MASTAGLIO L.Bridge bashing[J].Civil Engineering-ASCE,2014,67:38-40.
[8]戴彤宇.船桥碰撞及其风险分析[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2003.DAI Tongyu.Ship impact against bridge and its risk assessment[D].Harbin:Harbin Engineering University,2003.
[9]桑凌志,毛喆,张文娟,等.基于航迹预测的实时船舶安全预警方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(8):164-169.SANG Lingzhi,MAO Zhe,ZHANG Wenjuan,et al.A real-time ship safety early warning method based on trajectory prediction[J].China Safety Science Journal,2014,24(8):164-169.
[10]黄常海,胡甚平,高德毅,等.大桥船撞动态风险评估系统的设计与实现[J].中国安全科学学报2013,23(4):120-126.HUANG Changhai,HU Shenping,GAO Deyi,et al.Design and realization of assessment system on dynamic risk of ship collision with bridge[J].China Safety Science Journal 2013,23(4):120-126.
[11]FERDOUS R,KHAN F,SADIQ R,et al.Analyzing system safety and risks under uncertainty using a Bow-tie diagram:an innovative approach[J].Process Safety&Environmental Protection,2013,91(1/2):1-18.
[12]MAEKEN V B,EHLERS S,KHAN F.Delay risk analysis of ship sailing the northern sea route[J].Ship Technology Research Schiffstechnik,2015,62(1):26-35.
[13]RUIJTER A D,GULDENMUND F.The Bow-tie method:a review[J].Safety Science,2016,88:211-218.
[2]向俊,朱现场,金允龙.船舶大型化进程的促进因素与制约因素分析[J].上海船舶运输科学研究所学报,2014,37(1):19-24.XIANG Jun,ZHU Xianchang,JIN Yunlong.Analysis of promotion and restriction factors in the process of the ship size growth[J].Journal of Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute,2014,37(1):19-24.
[3]王礼立,陈国虞,杨黎明.船桥碰撞过程引发的冲击动力学论题[J].振动与冲击,2015,34(3):14-22.WANG Lili,CHEN Guoyu,YANG Liming.Impact dynamics topics motivated by ship-bridge collision process[J].Journal of Vibration and Shock,2015,34(3):14-22
[4]WANG Lili,YANG Liming,HUANG Dejin,et al.An impact dynamics analysis on a new crashworthy device against ship-bridge collision[J].International Journal of Impact Engineering,2008,35(8):895-904.
[5]胡振彪,伏耀华,蔡文山,等.超大型油船撞击的非线性动力学行为数值模拟[J].中国航海,2016,39(4):81-86.HU Zhenbiao,FU Yaohua,CAI Wenshan,et al.Numerical simulation of nonlinear dynamic behaviors of VLCC collision[J].Navigation of China,2016,39(4):81-86.
[6]FAN Wei,YUAN Wancheng.Numerical simulation and analytical modeling of pile-supported structures subjected to ship collisions including soil-structure interaction[J].Ocean Engineering,2014,91(11):11-27.
[7]MASTAGLIO L.Bridge bashing[J].Civil Engineering-ASCE,2014,67:38-40.
[8]戴彤宇.船桥碰撞及其风险分析[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2003.DAI Tongyu.Ship impact against bridge and its risk assessment[D].Harbin:Harbin Engineering University,2003.
[9]桑凌志,毛喆,张文娟,等.基于航迹预测的实时船舶安全预警方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(8):164-169.SANG Lingzhi,MAO Zhe,ZHANG Wenjuan,et al.A real-time ship safety early warning method based on trajectory prediction[J].China Safety Science Journal,2014,24(8):164-169.
[10]黄常海,胡甚平,高德毅,等.大桥船撞动态风险评估系统的设计与实现[J].中国安全科学学报2013,23(4):120-126.HUANG Changhai,HU Shenping,GAO Deyi,et al.Design and realization of assessment system on dynamic risk of ship collision with bridge[J].China Safety Science Journal 2013,23(4):120-126.
[11]FERDOUS R,KHAN F,SADIQ R,et al.Analyzing system safety and risks under uncertainty using a Bow-tie diagram:an innovative approach[J].Process Safety&Environmental Protection,2013,91(1/2):1-18.
[12]MAEKEN V B,EHLERS S,KHAN F.Delay risk analysis of ship sailing the northern sea route[J].Ship Technology Research Schiffstechnik,2015,62(1):26-35.
[13]RUIJTER A D,GULDENMUND F.The Bow-tie method:a review[J].Safety Science,2016,88:211-218.