湖南省近54年冬季降水分区及趋势分析
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摘要
基于湖南省89个气象站点1960—2013年的冬季降水观测数据,应用旋转经验正交函数(REOF)和层次聚类法(HCA)对湖南省冬季降水进行分区,并在分区的基础上,运用离散小波变换结合Mann-Kendall(MK)和Sequential MK(SQMK)的方法,讨论湖南省各分区冬季降水的变化趋势,并识别影响各自变化趋势的主周期分量。结果表明:(1)REOF的前3个旋转空间模态揭示湖南省冬季降水存在3个主要的异常敏感区:湘南、湘西北及湘中;(2)湖南省冬季降水在空间上可划分为5个一致性子区域:湘西北区(DJF1)、湘西-湘北区(DJF2)、湘西南-湘中区(DJF3)、湘南丘陵区(DJF4)和湘南山地区(DJF5),且每一子区域从西南向东北呈带状展布;(3)近54年来,5个子区的冬季降水均表现出增加趋势但各区存在差异,其中,湘西南-湘中区、湘南丘陵区和湘南山地区均呈显著的上升趋势;(4)D1分量是影响湖南省不同区域冬季降水变化趋势的最占优的周期分量,揭示湖南省的冬季降水变化趋势存在准2年的主周期。
In this study, the hierarchical clustering analysis(HCA) coupled with rotated empirical orthogonal functions(REOF) is applied to form sub-regions based on the winter precipitation data of 89 meteorological stations in Hunan Province during the period 1960-2013. Then, the method, combined with discrete wavelet transform, Mann-Kendall(MK) and sequential MK(SQMK), is used to analyze the trend of precipitation change and identify the most dominant periodic components that affect winter precipitation trends in each sub-region. The results are as follows.(1) The first three rotated EOF modes reveal three principal precipitation anomaly sensitive areas in Hunan Province: south Hunan, northwest Hunan and central Hunan.(2) Winter precipitation in Hunan can be divided into five homogeneous and distinct regions: northwest Hunan(DJF1), west Hunan-north Hunan(DJF2), southwest Hunan-central Hunan(DJF3), hilly areas of south Hunan(DJF4), and mountain areas of south Hunan(DJF5). And each of sub-regions is extended belt-like from southwest to northeast.(3) In the past 54 years, winter precipitation has an increasing trend in each of five sub-regions, but these trends are different from each other. The southwest Hunan-central Hunan, hilly areas of south Hunan and mountainous areas of south Hunan exhibit a statistically significant upward trend.(4) The wavelet component D1 is the most effective periodic components affecting the winter precipitation trends in the different regions of Hunan Province. It suggests that 2-year periodic events are the main driver behind the observed trend of precipitation in Hunan Province.
In this study, the hierarchical clustering analysis(HCA) coupled with rotated empirical orthogonal functions(REOF) is applied to form sub-regions based on the winter precipitation data of 89 meteorological stations in Hunan Province during the period 1960-2013. Then, the method, combined with discrete wavelet transform, Mann-Kendall(MK) and sequential MK(SQMK), is used to analyze the trend of precipitation change and identify the most dominant periodic components that affect winter precipitation trends in each sub-region. The results are as follows.(1) The first three rotated EOF modes reveal three principal precipitation anomaly sensitive areas in Hunan Province: south Hunan, northwest Hunan and central Hunan.(2) Winter precipitation in Hunan can be divided into five homogeneous and distinct regions: northwest Hunan(DJF1), west Hunan-north Hunan(DJF2), southwest Hunan-central Hunan(DJF3), hilly areas of south Hunan(DJF4), and mountain areas of south Hunan(DJF5). And each of sub-regions is extended belt-like from southwest to northeast.(3) In the past 54 years, winter precipitation has an increasing trend in each of five sub-regions, but these trends are different from each other. The southwest Hunan-central Hunan, hilly areas of south Hunan and mountainous areas of south Hunan exhibit a statistically significant upward trend.(4) The wavelet component D1 is the most effective periodic components affecting the winter precipitation trends in the different regions of Hunan Province. It suggests that 2-year periodic events are the main driver behind the observed trend of precipitation in Hunan Province.
引文
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[2]陆文秀,刘丙军,陈俊凡,等.近50 a来珠江流域降水变化趋势分析[J].自然资源学报, 2014, 29(1):80-90.
[3]钱卓蕾.长江中下游冬季降水特征和影响因素分析[J].高原气象, 2013, 32(6):1 795-1 802.
[4] NALLEY D, ADAMOWSKI J, KHALIL B. Using discrete wavelet transforms to analyze trends in streamflow and precipitation in Quebecand Ontario(1954—2008)[J]. J Hydrol, 2012, 475(26):204-228.
[5] PALIZDAN N, FALAMARZI Y, HUANG Y F, et al. Precipitation trend analysis using discrete wavelet transform at the Langat RiverBasin, Selangor, Malaysia[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment, 2016:1-25.
[6] CHEN Y Z, GUAN Y Q, SHAO G W, et al. Investigating trends in streamflow and precipitation in Huangfuchuan Basin with waveletanalysis and the Mann-Kendall test[J]. Water, 2016, 8(3):77.
[7]王兵,胡娅敏,杜尧东,等.小波分析和EEMD方法在广州气温及降水的多尺度分析中的差异分析[J].热带气象学报, 2014,30(4):769-776.
[8]郑腾飞,刘显通,万齐林,等.近50年广东省分级降水的时空分布特征及其变化趋势的研究[J].热带气象学报, 2017, 33(2):212-220.
[9]张永领,高全洲,丁裕国,等.长江流域夏季降水的时空特征及演变趋势分析[J].热带气象学报, 2006, 22(2):161-168.
[10]吴林,覃峥嵘,黄大贞,等.华南区域季节性降水的差异分析[J].气象研究与应用, 2009, 30(3):5-7.
[11]王兆礼,陈晓宏,张灵,等.近40年来珠江流域降水量的时空演变特征[J].水文, 2006, 26(6):71-75.
[12]赵恩榕,简茂球,李春晖.华南降水季节演变的年代际变化[J].热带气象学报, 2018, 34(3):360-370.
[13]丁一汇.东亚冬季风的统计研究[J].热带气象学报, 1990, 6(2):119-128.
[14]王林,冯娟.我国冬季降水年际变化的主模态分析[J].大气科学, 2011, 35(6):1 105-1 116.
[15]李天然,张人禾,温敏. ENSO对中国冬半年降水影响的不对称性及机制分析[J].热带气象学报, 2017, 33(1):1-10.
[16]简云韬,简茂球,杨崧.前、后冬的东亚冬季风年际变异及其与东亚降水的关系[J].热带气象学报, 2017, 33(4):502-529.
[17] XU J, CHAN J C L. Interannual and interdecadal variability of winter precipitation over China in relation to global sea level pressureanomalies[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2002, 19(5):914-926.
[18] ZHOU L T. Impact of East Asian winter monsoon on rainfall over southeastern China and its dynamical process[J]. Int J Climatol, 2011,31(5):677-686.
[19]孙建奇,敖娟.中国冬季降水和极端降水对变暖的响应[J].科学通报, 2013, 58(8):674-679.
[20]尚程鹏,章新平,张新主,等.洞庭湖流域近54a来冬季降水及其异常环流特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2017, 26(8):1 284-1 294.
[21]徐晶,林建,姚学祥,等.七大江河流域面雨量计算方法及应用[J].气象, 2001, 27(11):13-16.
[22]邓爱军,陶诗言,陈烈庭.我国汛期降水的EOF分析[J].大气科学, 1989, 13(3):289-295.
[23]熊光洁,王式功,尚可政,等.中国西南地区近50年夏季降水的气候特征[J].兰州大学学报(自科版), 2012, 48(4):45-52.
[24] HANNACHI A, JOLLIFFE I T, STEPHENSON D B. Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science:Areview[J]. Int J Climatol, 2007, 27(9):1 119-1 152.
[25] ROUSSEEUW P J. Silhouettes:A graphical aid to the interpretation and validation of cluster analysis[J]. Journal of Computational&AppliedMathematics, 1987, 20(20):53-65.
[26] DOMROES M, KAVIANI M, SCHAEFER D. An Analysis of regional and intra-annual precipitation variability over Iran usingmultivariate statistical methods[J]. Theoretical&Applied Climatology, 1998, 61(3-4):151-159.
[27] RAZIEI T. A precipitation regionalization and regime for Iran based on multivariate analysis[J]. Theoretical&Applied Climatology, 2017:1-20.
[28]向旬,王冀,王绪鑫,等.我国极端气温指数的时空变化与分区研究[J].气象, 2008, 34(9):73-80.
[29] NORTH G R, BELL T L, CAHALAN R F, et al. Sampling Errors in the Estimation of Empirical Orthogonal Functions[J]. Mon Wea Rev,1982, 110(7):699.
[30] HE X G, GUAN H D. Multiresolution analysis of precipitation teleconnections with large-scale climate signals:A case study in SouthAustralia[J]. Water Resources Research, 2013, 49(10):6 995-7 008.
[31] HAMED K H, RAO A R. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data[J]. J Hydrol, 1998, 204(1-4):182-196.
[32]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社, 2007.
[33]陈少勇,郭凯忠,吴芳蓉,等.中国南方冬季降水异常的时空分布特征分析[J].气候变化研究快报, 2014, 03(4):165-175.
[34] KAISER G. A friendly guide to wavelets[J]. Proceeding of the IEEE, 1998, 86(11):2 387.
[35]张剑明,黎祖贤,章新平. 1960-2005年湖南省降水的变化[J].气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(2):101-105.
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