经济地位对信用卡逾期的影响
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摘要
我国信用卡业务的迅猛发展助推了消费经济的快速发展,但信用卡的逾期行为不容忽视。收入代表了一个人的经济地位,是信用卡按时还款的保障。本文基于某商业银行信用卡客户的逾期数据,以持卡人的经济地位为视角,分析了经济地位对信用卡逾期行为的影响。研究表明,我国商业银行信用卡持卡人的逾期行为具有显著的经济特征,收入对信用卡逾期的影响呈"U"型的非线性特征,即收入较低和收入较高的持卡人逾期的可能性较高,收入处于中间的持卡人逾期的可能性较低。进一步的研究发现,中年群体、工作单位稳定者、有房者会降低经济地位对信用卡逾期行为的非线性影响,而信用卡账龄较长的持卡人扩大了这种影响。本文的研究结论为全社会建立良好的信用卡用卡环境、商业银行高效处理信用卡逾期、改善商业银行信用卡风险管理提供了重要依据。
The rapid development of credit card business in China has pushed forward the rapid development of consumer economy, but the default behavior of the holders cannot be neglected. Income which represents a person's economic status, is a guarantee for the timely repayment. Based on the overdue data of credit card customers in a commercial bank, from the perspective of the economic status of the cardholder, this paper analyses the impact of economic status on credit card overdue. It is found that the overdue behavior of credit card holders in the China's commercial bank is with significant economic characteristics. The impact of income on credit card overdue is non-linear with a U-shape, That is, the cardholders with lower and higher income are more likely to default and with middle income are less likely to. A further research shows that the middle-aged group, the workers with stable jobs and the house owners reduce the non-linear impacts of economic status on credit card overdue behavior, while the cardholders with long time card holding edge up the chances. This paper provides the key evidence for the whole society to establish a good environment for credit card uses, for commercial banks to effectively deal with credit card overdue and to improve the credit card risk management.
The rapid development of credit card business in China has pushed forward the rapid development of consumer economy, but the default behavior of the holders cannot be neglected. Income which represents a person's economic status, is a guarantee for the timely repayment. Based on the overdue data of credit card customers in a commercial bank, from the perspective of the economic status of the cardholder, this paper analyses the impact of economic status on credit card overdue. It is found that the overdue behavior of credit card holders in the China's commercial bank is with significant economic characteristics. The impact of income on credit card overdue is non-linear with a U-shape, That is, the cardholders with lower and higher income are more likely to default and with middle income are less likely to. A further research shows that the middle-aged group, the workers with stable jobs and the house owners reduce the non-linear impacts of economic status on credit card overdue behavior, while the cardholders with long time card holding edge up the chances. This paper provides the key evidence for the whole society to establish a good environment for credit card uses, for commercial banks to effectively deal with credit card overdue and to improve the credit card risk management.
引文
[1]Duncan O D.A Socioeconomic Index for All Occupations,in A.J.Reiss (ed.) Occupations and Social Status [M].New York:Wiley,1961,109-138.
[2]Plummer J T.Life Style Patterns and Commercial Bank Credit Card Usage [J].Journal of Marketing,1971,35(2):35-41.
[3]Awh R Y,Waters D.A Discriminant Analysis of Economic,Demographic,and Attitudinal Characteristics of Bank Charge-Card Holders:A Case Study [J].Journal of Finance,1974,29(3):973-980.
[4]黄兴海.我国银行卡消费与经济增长的实证研究[J].金融研究,2004(11):72-82.
[5]Robb C A,James R N.Credit Cards as a Market Instrument:Consumer Understanding and Use [M].Consumer Knowledge and Financial Decisions.Springer New York,2012,101-111.
[6]熊伟.短期消费性资款与居民消费-基于信用卡余额代偿的研究[J].经济研究(增刊),2014(1):156-167.
[7]Duca J V,Whitesell W C.Credit cards and Money Demand:A Cross-Sectional Study [J].Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,1995,27(2):604-623.
[8]Kinsey J.Deteminants of Credit Card Accounts:An Application of Tobit Analysis [J].Journal of Consumer Research,1981,8(2):172-182.
[9]Mathews H L,Solcum Jr J W.Social Class end Commercial Bank Credit Card Usage [J].Journal of Marketing,1969,33(1):71-78.
[10]White K J.Consumer Choice aid Use of Bank Credit Card:A Model and Cross-Section Results [J].Journal ad Consumer Research,1975,2(1):10-18.
[11]傅联英,王明筠.城镇居民信用卡持有行为的决定机制研究[J].上海金融,2016(12):32-36.
[12]李永强,白漩,寇燕.信用卡开卡意愿与使用频率影响因素研究[J].中国工业经济,2008(2):104-112.
[13]江明华,任晓炜.金钱和信用态度影响信用卡透支的实证研究[J].金融研究,2003(11):26-35.
[14]黄卉,沈红波.生命周期、消费都态度与信用卡使用频率[J].经济研究(增刊),2010,108-117.
[15]沈红波,黄卉,廖理.中国信用卡市场持卡人透支行为研究[J].统计研究,2013(10):61-67.
[16]Ando A,Modigliani F.The “Life Cycle” Hypothesis of Saving:Aggregate Implications and Tests [J].American Economic Review,1963,53(1):55-84.
[17]Chan R Y.Demographic and Attitudinal Differences between Active and Inactive Credit Cardholders-the Case of Hong Kong [J].International Journal of Bank Marketing,1997,15(4):117-125.
[18]Mandell L.Credit Card Use in the United States [M].University of Michigan Press,1972.
[19]Kim H,DeVaney S A.The Determinants of Outstanding Balances among Credit Card Revolvers [J].Journal of Financial Counseling and Planning,2001,12(1):67-77.
[20]Abdul-Muhmin A G,Umar Y A.Credit Card Ownership and Usage Behavior in Saudi Arabia:the Impact of Demographics and Attitudes towards Debt [J].Journal of Financial Services Marketing,2007,12(3):219-235.
[21]Hancock A M,Jorgensen B L,Swanson M S.College Students and Credit Card Use:The Role of Parents,Work Experience,Financial Knowledge,and Credit Card Attitudes [J].Journal of Family and Economic Issues,2013,34(4):369-381.
[22]Bertaut C C,Haliassos M,Reiter M.Credit Card Debt Puzzles and Debt Revolvers for Self Control [J].Review of Finance,2009,13(4):657-692.
[23]Min I,Kim J H.Modeling Credit Card Borrowing:A Comparison of Type I and Type II Tobit Approaches [J].Southern Economic Journal,2003,70(1):128-143.
(1)本段数据均来自2018年中国人民银行公布的《支付体系运行报告》。
(2)循环账户比率=循环账户数/有效账户数。循环是指在本账单周期内,未能全额归还上期账单金额。
(3)银联数据是目前国内唯一一家从事银行卡发卡系统外包的专业机构。此处数据来源于银联数据客户服务年报。
[2]Plummer J T.Life Style Patterns and Commercial Bank Credit Card Usage [J].Journal of Marketing,1971,35(2):35-41.
[3]Awh R Y,Waters D.A Discriminant Analysis of Economic,Demographic,and Attitudinal Characteristics of Bank Charge-Card Holders:A Case Study [J].Journal of Finance,1974,29(3):973-980.
[4]黄兴海.我国银行卡消费与经济增长的实证研究[J].金融研究,2004(11):72-82.
[5]Robb C A,James R N.Credit Cards as a Market Instrument:Consumer Understanding and Use [M].Consumer Knowledge and Financial Decisions.Springer New York,2012,101-111.
[6]熊伟.短期消费性资款与居民消费-基于信用卡余额代偿的研究[J].经济研究(增刊),2014(1):156-167.
[7]Duca J V,Whitesell W C.Credit cards and Money Demand:A Cross-Sectional Study [J].Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,1995,27(2):604-623.
[8]Kinsey J.Deteminants of Credit Card Accounts:An Application of Tobit Analysis [J].Journal of Consumer Research,1981,8(2):172-182.
[9]Mathews H L,Solcum Jr J W.Social Class end Commercial Bank Credit Card Usage [J].Journal of Marketing,1969,33(1):71-78.
[10]White K J.Consumer Choice aid Use of Bank Credit Card:A Model and Cross-Section Results [J].Journal ad Consumer Research,1975,2(1):10-18.
[11]傅联英,王明筠.城镇居民信用卡持有行为的决定机制研究[J].上海金融,2016(12):32-36.
[12]李永强,白漩,寇燕.信用卡开卡意愿与使用频率影响因素研究[J].中国工业经济,2008(2):104-112.
[13]江明华,任晓炜.金钱和信用态度影响信用卡透支的实证研究[J].金融研究,2003(11):26-35.
[14]黄卉,沈红波.生命周期、消费都态度与信用卡使用频率[J].经济研究(增刊),2010,108-117.
[15]沈红波,黄卉,廖理.中国信用卡市场持卡人透支行为研究[J].统计研究,2013(10):61-67.
[16]Ando A,Modigliani F.The “Life Cycle” Hypothesis of Saving:Aggregate Implications and Tests [J].American Economic Review,1963,53(1):55-84.
[17]Chan R Y.Demographic and Attitudinal Differences between Active and Inactive Credit Cardholders-the Case of Hong Kong [J].International Journal of Bank Marketing,1997,15(4):117-125.
[18]Mandell L.Credit Card Use in the United States [M].University of Michigan Press,1972.
[19]Kim H,DeVaney S A.The Determinants of Outstanding Balances among Credit Card Revolvers [J].Journal of Financial Counseling and Planning,2001,12(1):67-77.
[20]Abdul-Muhmin A G,Umar Y A.Credit Card Ownership and Usage Behavior in Saudi Arabia:the Impact of Demographics and Attitudes towards Debt [J].Journal of Financial Services Marketing,2007,12(3):219-235.
[21]Hancock A M,Jorgensen B L,Swanson M S.College Students and Credit Card Use:The Role of Parents,Work Experience,Financial Knowledge,and Credit Card Attitudes [J].Journal of Family and Economic Issues,2013,34(4):369-381.
[22]Bertaut C C,Haliassos M,Reiter M.Credit Card Debt Puzzles and Debt Revolvers for Self Control [J].Review of Finance,2009,13(4):657-692.
[23]Min I,Kim J H.Modeling Credit Card Borrowing:A Comparison of Type I and Type II Tobit Approaches [J].Southern Economic Journal,2003,70(1):128-143.
(1)本段数据均来自2018年中国人民银行公布的《支付体系运行报告》。
(2)循环账户比率=循环账户数/有效账户数。循环是指在本账单周期内,未能全额归还上期账单金额。
(3)银联数据是目前国内唯一一家从事银行卡发卡系统外包的专业机构。此处数据来源于银联数据客户服务年报。