目的国经济政策不确定性对中国企业出口产品创新的影响
摘要
本文对目的国经济政策不确定性对中国出口企业产品创新的内在机理进行了深入剖析,将2001—2007年中国工业企业数据和海关统计数据进行匹配,并运用规范的计量方法对其作用机理进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,目的国经济政策不确定性的上升显著抑制了中国出口企业产品创新;在企业异质性视角的实证下,目的国经济政策不确定性上升对加工贸易型企业及不享受政府补贴企业的抑制效应明显小于一般贸易型企业及得到政府补贴企业;在变换测度出口产品创新能力指标及目的国经济政策不确定性衡量方法的情形下,上述结论依然具有较好的稳健性。对此,政府应强化对内资企业的金融扶持政策,化解其融资约束难题;积极推进国有企业的混合所有制改革,打造符合现代企业治理、适应新时代要求的具有原生创新能力的企业。
引文
[1]GULEN H,ION M.Policy uncertainty and corporate investment[J].Review of Financial Studies,2016,29(3):523-564.
[2]FENG Y.Political freedom,political instability and policy uncertainty:a study of political institutions and private investment in developing countries[J].International Studies Quarterly,2001,45(2):271-294.
[3]魏中京,张兵兵.全球经济政策不确定性冲击与国际粮食价格波动:理论与实证分析[J].经济问题,2018(3):90-95.
[4]HSU P H,TIAN X,XU Y.Financial development and innovation:cross-country evidence[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2014,112(1):116-135.
[5]BLOOM N.The impact of uncertainty shocks[J].Econometrica,2009,77(3):623-685.
[6]金雪军,钟意,王义中.政策不确定性的宏观经济后果[J].经济理论与经济管理,2014,34(2):17-26.
[7]李凤羽,杨墨竹.经济政策不确定性会抑制企业投资吗?---基于中国经济政策不确定指数的实证研究[J].金融研究,2015(4):115-129.
[8]饶品贵,岳衡,姜国华.经济政策不确定性与企业投资行为研究[J].世界经济,2017(2):27-51.
[9]HICKS J R.Distribution and economic progress:a revised version[J].The Reviewof Economic Studies,1936,4(1):1-12.
[10]张先锋,杨璐璠,阚苗苗.工资水平与制造业出口企业产品创新---基于“出口中学习”视角的二元边际考察[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2017(5):5-16.
[11]李宇,张瑶.制造业产业创新的企业规模门槛效应研究---基于门槛面板数据模型[J].宏观经济研究,2014(11):96-106.
[12]鞠晓生,卢荻,虞义华.融资约束、营运资本管理与企业创新可持续性[J].经济研究,2013(1):4-16.
[13]罗军.民营企业融资约束、对外直接投资与技术创新[J].中央财经大学学报,2017(11):96-103.
[14]HOMBERT J,MATRAY A.Can innovation help U.S.manufacturing firms escape import competition from China?[J].The Journal of Finance,2018,73(5):2003-2039.
[15]DING S,SUN P,JIANG W.The effect of import competition on firm productivity and innovation:does the distance to technology frontier matter?[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics&Statistics,2016,78(2):197-227.
[16]李文贵,余明桂.民营化企业的股权结构与企业创新[J].管理世界,2015(4):112-125.
[17]LUONG H,MOSHIRIAN F,NGUYEN L,et al.How do foreign institutional investors enhance firm innovation?[J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative A-nalysis,2017,52(4):1449-1490.
[18]HIRSHLEIFER D,LOW A,TEOH S H.Are overconfident CEOs better innovators?[J].The Journal of Finance,2012,67(4):1457-1498.
[19]HARESH S,AJAY S,SUBRAMANIAN K V.Corporate governance and innovation:theory and evidence[J].Journal of Financial&Quantitative Analysis,2014,49(4):82-106.
[20]GOLDBERG P K,KHANDELWAL A K,PAVCNIKN,et al.Imported intermediate inputs and domestic product growth:evidence from india[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2010,125(4):1727-1767.
[21]BOLER E A,MOXNES A,ULLTVEITMOE K H.R&D,international sourcing and the joint impact on firm performance[J].American Economic Review,2015,105(12):3704-3739.
[22]GEREFFI G,HUMPHREY J,STURGEON T.The governance of global value chains[J].Review of International Political Economy,2005,12(1):78-104.
[23]LIU Q,QIU L D.Intermediate input imports and innovations:evidence from chinese firms’patent filings[J].Journal of International Economics,2016,103(11):166-183.
[24]王爱民,李子联,张培.外商直接投资、技术环境与企业自主研发[J].南大商学评论,2016(4):1-20.
[25]顾群,谷靖,吴宗耀.财政补贴、代理问题与企业技术创新---基于R&D投资异质性视角[J].软科学,2016,30(7):70-73.
[26]曾萍,邓腾智,宋铁波.社会资本、动态能力与企业创新关系的实证研究[J].科研管理,2013,34(4):50-59.
[27]潘越,潘健平,戴亦一.公司诉讼风险、司法地方保护主义与企业创新[J].经济研究,2015(3):131-145.
[28]ATANASSOV J,JULIO B,LENG T.The bright side of political uncertainty:The case of R&D[J].SSRNWorking Paper,2015.
[29]BHATTACHARYA U,HSU P H,TIAN X,et al.What affects innovation more:policy or policy uncertainty?[J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,2017,52(5):1869-1901.
[30]佟家栋,李胜旗.贸易政策不确定性对出口企业产品创新的影响研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(6):25-32.
[31]顾夏铭,陈勇民,潘士远.经济政策不确定性与创新---基于我国上市公司的实证分析[J].经济研究,2018(2):109-123.
[32]BLOOM N.Uncertainty and the dynamics of R&D[J].American Economic Review,2007,97(2):250-255.
[33]TAGLIONI D,ZAVACKA V.Innocent bystanders:how foreign uncertainty shocks harm exporters[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2013,27(6):697-711.
[34]BAUM C F,MUSTAFA C,NESLIHAN O.Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports[J].Journal of Applied E-conometrics,2004,19(1):1-23.
[35]陈德球,金雅玲,董志勇.政策不确定性政治关联与企业创新效率[J].南开管理评论,2016,19(4):27-35.
[36]郝威亚,魏玮,温军.经济政策不确定性如何影响企业创新?---实物期权理论作用机制的视角[J].经济管理,2016(10):40-54.
[37]MCDONALD R,SIEGEL D.The value of waiting to invest[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1986,101(4):707-727.
[38]HALL B H.The financing of research and development[J].Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2002,18(1):35-51.
[39]HALL B H,MONCADA-PATERNO-CASTELLOP,MONTRESOR S,et al.Financing constraints,R&Dinvestments and innovative performances:new empirical evidence at the firm level for Europe[J].Economics of Innovation&New Technology,2015,25(3):1-14.
[40]CLAESSENS S,TZIOUMIS K.Measuring firms’access to finance[J].World Bank,2006:1-25.
[41]HOWELL A.Indigenous’innovation with heterogeneous risk and new firm survival in a transitioning Chinese economy[J].Research Policy,2015,44(10):1866-1876.
[42]BAKER S R,BLOOM N,DAVIS S J.Measuring economic policy uncertainty[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016,131(4):1593-1636.
[43]CS ZOLTN J,AUDRETSCH D B.Innovation and technological change:an international comparison[M].London:Harvester Wheatsheaf,1991.
[44]HADLOCK C J,PIERCE J R.New evidence on measuring financial constraints:moving beyond the KZ index[J].The Review of Financial Studies,2010,23(5):1909-1940.
[45]YU M J,LI J.Imported intermediate inputs,firm productivity and product complexity[J].The Japanese E-conomic Review,2014,65(2):178-192.
[46]岑丽君.中国在全球生产网络中的分工与贸易地位---基于TiVA数据与GVC指数的研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(1):3-13.
[47]张二震,安礼伟.关于贸易顺差原因的理论思考[J].当代经济管理,2009,31(4):1-6.
(1)具体15个国家依次为美国、日本、韩国、印度、荷兰、俄罗斯、澳大利亚、加拿大、法国、智利、爱尔兰、巴西、墨西哥、新加坡、瑞典。
[2]FENG Y.Political freedom,political instability and policy uncertainty:a study of political institutions and private investment in developing countries[J].International Studies Quarterly,2001,45(2):271-294.
[3]魏中京,张兵兵.全球经济政策不确定性冲击与国际粮食价格波动:理论与实证分析[J].经济问题,2018(3):90-95.
[4]HSU P H,TIAN X,XU Y.Financial development and innovation:cross-country evidence[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2014,112(1):116-135.
[5]BLOOM N.The impact of uncertainty shocks[J].Econometrica,2009,77(3):623-685.
[6]金雪军,钟意,王义中.政策不确定性的宏观经济后果[J].经济理论与经济管理,2014,34(2):17-26.
[7]李凤羽,杨墨竹.经济政策不确定性会抑制企业投资吗?---基于中国经济政策不确定指数的实证研究[J].金融研究,2015(4):115-129.
[8]饶品贵,岳衡,姜国华.经济政策不确定性与企业投资行为研究[J].世界经济,2017(2):27-51.
[9]HICKS J R.Distribution and economic progress:a revised version[J].The Reviewof Economic Studies,1936,4(1):1-12.
[10]张先锋,杨璐璠,阚苗苗.工资水平与制造业出口企业产品创新---基于“出口中学习”视角的二元边际考察[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2017(5):5-16.
[11]李宇,张瑶.制造业产业创新的企业规模门槛效应研究---基于门槛面板数据模型[J].宏观经济研究,2014(11):96-106.
[12]鞠晓生,卢荻,虞义华.融资约束、营运资本管理与企业创新可持续性[J].经济研究,2013(1):4-16.
[13]罗军.民营企业融资约束、对外直接投资与技术创新[J].中央财经大学学报,2017(11):96-103.
[14]HOMBERT J,MATRAY A.Can innovation help U.S.manufacturing firms escape import competition from China?[J].The Journal of Finance,2018,73(5):2003-2039.
[15]DING S,SUN P,JIANG W.The effect of import competition on firm productivity and innovation:does the distance to technology frontier matter?[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics&Statistics,2016,78(2):197-227.
[16]李文贵,余明桂.民营化企业的股权结构与企业创新[J].管理世界,2015(4):112-125.
[17]LUONG H,MOSHIRIAN F,NGUYEN L,et al.How do foreign institutional investors enhance firm innovation?[J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative A-nalysis,2017,52(4):1449-1490.
[18]HIRSHLEIFER D,LOW A,TEOH S H.Are overconfident CEOs better innovators?[J].The Journal of Finance,2012,67(4):1457-1498.
[19]HARESH S,AJAY S,SUBRAMANIAN K V.Corporate governance and innovation:theory and evidence[J].Journal of Financial&Quantitative Analysis,2014,49(4):82-106.
[20]GOLDBERG P K,KHANDELWAL A K,PAVCNIKN,et al.Imported intermediate inputs and domestic product growth:evidence from india[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2010,125(4):1727-1767.
[21]BOLER E A,MOXNES A,ULLTVEITMOE K H.R&D,international sourcing and the joint impact on firm performance[J].American Economic Review,2015,105(12):3704-3739.
[22]GEREFFI G,HUMPHREY J,STURGEON T.The governance of global value chains[J].Review of International Political Economy,2005,12(1):78-104.
[23]LIU Q,QIU L D.Intermediate input imports and innovations:evidence from chinese firms’patent filings[J].Journal of International Economics,2016,103(11):166-183.
[24]王爱民,李子联,张培.外商直接投资、技术环境与企业自主研发[J].南大商学评论,2016(4):1-20.
[25]顾群,谷靖,吴宗耀.财政补贴、代理问题与企业技术创新---基于R&D投资异质性视角[J].软科学,2016,30(7):70-73.
[26]曾萍,邓腾智,宋铁波.社会资本、动态能力与企业创新关系的实证研究[J].科研管理,2013,34(4):50-59.
[27]潘越,潘健平,戴亦一.公司诉讼风险、司法地方保护主义与企业创新[J].经济研究,2015(3):131-145.
[28]ATANASSOV J,JULIO B,LENG T.The bright side of political uncertainty:The case of R&D[J].SSRNWorking Paper,2015.
[29]BHATTACHARYA U,HSU P H,TIAN X,et al.What affects innovation more:policy or policy uncertainty?[J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,2017,52(5):1869-1901.
[30]佟家栋,李胜旗.贸易政策不确定性对出口企业产品创新的影响研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(6):25-32.
[31]顾夏铭,陈勇民,潘士远.经济政策不确定性与创新---基于我国上市公司的实证分析[J].经济研究,2018(2):109-123.
[32]BLOOM N.Uncertainty and the dynamics of R&D[J].American Economic Review,2007,97(2):250-255.
[33]TAGLIONI D,ZAVACKA V.Innocent bystanders:how foreign uncertainty shocks harm exporters[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2013,27(6):697-711.
[34]BAUM C F,MUSTAFA C,NESLIHAN O.Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports[J].Journal of Applied E-conometrics,2004,19(1):1-23.
[35]陈德球,金雅玲,董志勇.政策不确定性政治关联与企业创新效率[J].南开管理评论,2016,19(4):27-35.
[36]郝威亚,魏玮,温军.经济政策不确定性如何影响企业创新?---实物期权理论作用机制的视角[J].经济管理,2016(10):40-54.
[37]MCDONALD R,SIEGEL D.The value of waiting to invest[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1986,101(4):707-727.
[38]HALL B H.The financing of research and development[J].Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2002,18(1):35-51.
[39]HALL B H,MONCADA-PATERNO-CASTELLOP,MONTRESOR S,et al.Financing constraints,R&Dinvestments and innovative performances:new empirical evidence at the firm level for Europe[J].Economics of Innovation&New Technology,2015,25(3):1-14.
[40]CLAESSENS S,TZIOUMIS K.Measuring firms’access to finance[J].World Bank,2006:1-25.
[41]HOWELL A.Indigenous’innovation with heterogeneous risk and new firm survival in a transitioning Chinese economy[J].Research Policy,2015,44(10):1866-1876.
[42]BAKER S R,BLOOM N,DAVIS S J.Measuring economic policy uncertainty[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016,131(4):1593-1636.
[43]CS ZOLTN J,AUDRETSCH D B.Innovation and technological change:an international comparison[M].London:Harvester Wheatsheaf,1991.
[44]HADLOCK C J,PIERCE J R.New evidence on measuring financial constraints:moving beyond the KZ index[J].The Review of Financial Studies,2010,23(5):1909-1940.
[45]YU M J,LI J.Imported intermediate inputs,firm productivity and product complexity[J].The Japanese E-conomic Review,2014,65(2):178-192.
[46]岑丽君.中国在全球生产网络中的分工与贸易地位---基于TiVA数据与GVC指数的研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(1):3-13.
[47]张二震,安礼伟.关于贸易顺差原因的理论思考[J].当代经济管理,2009,31(4):1-6.
(1)具体15个国家依次为美国、日本、韩国、印度、荷兰、俄罗斯、澳大利亚、加拿大、法国、智利、爱尔兰、巴西、墨西哥、新加坡、瑞典。