特朗普时代美国的同盟政策及同盟体系
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摘要
作为二战结束以来实现"自由霸权秩序"设想的关键性政治/军事安排,在过去70年时间里,美国组建和主导的全球同盟体系以确保其在战后国际体系中"首要地位"的实现与巩固为目标,直接服务于不同阶段美国的大战略缔造。冷战结束以来,该体系在进一步扩张同时,其战略价值受到美国战略学界的不断质疑。特朗普执政后,在美国大战略总体调整背景下,美国同盟政策出现较大变动,试图在继续维持对该体系绝对主导、继续享有其战略益处同时,削减自身的投入成本,并极力向其盟国转嫁战略负担。美国同盟政策调整,进一步加剧了同盟体系内部的不和与能力的弱化,未来趋向将直接影响地区地缘政治格局甚至全球权势结构变动。
引文
[1][美]保罗·肯尼迪主编.战争与和平的大战略[M].时殷弘等,译.北京:世界知识出版社,2005.
[2][美]保罗·肯尼迪.大国的兴衰:1500-2000年的经济变迁与军事冲突[M].陈景彪等,译.北京:国际文化出版公司,2006.
[3][美]汉斯·摩根索.国家间政治:权力斗争与和平[M].徐昕等,译.北京:北京大学出版社,2006.
[4][美]亨利·基辛格.大外交[M].顾淑馨等,译.海口:海南出版社,1998.
[5][美]克里斯托弗·莱恩.和平的幻想:1940年以来的美国大战略[M].孙建中,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2009.
[6][美]米尔斯海默.大国政治的悲剧[M].王义桅,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2008.
[7][美]威廉·奥尔森,戴维·麦克莱伦,弗雷德·桑德曼编.国际关系的理论与实践[M].王沿等,译.北京:中国社会科学出版社,1987.
[8][美]威廉·曼彻斯特.光荣与梦想:1932-1972年美国社会实录[M].朱协等,译.海口:海南出版社,2004.
[9]葛汉文.“事大”还是平衡:韩国对外战略传统及其当下效应[J].和平与发展,2017(5).
[10]葛汉文.“拒绝衰落”与美国“要塞化”:特朗普的大战略[J].国际安全研究,2018(3).
[11]葛汉文.冷战后澳大利亚的地缘政治思想[J].战略决策研究,2015(4).
[12]葛汉文.冷战后日本的地缘政治思想[J].和平与发展,2014(4).
[13]孙云飞.霸权衰落下的责任转移:特朗普执政后的亚太同盟体系[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2017(5).
[14]Bassin,M.Between Realism and the“New Right”:Geopolitics in Germany in the1990s[J].Transaction of the Institute of British Geographers,2003(3).
[15]Brands,H.American Grand Strategy:Lessons from the Cold War[EB/OL].http://www.css.ethz.ch/content/specialinterest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/en/services/digital-library/articles/article.html/193677.
[16]Brands,H.U S Grand Strategy in an Age of Nationalism:Fortress America and its Alternatives[J].The Washington Quarterly,2017(1).
[17]Burt,R.A Grand Strategy for Trump[J].National Interest,2017(3).
[18]Clarke,M&A Ricketts.US Grand Strategy and National Security:The Dilemmas of Primacy,Decline and Denial[J].Australian Journal of International Affairs,2017(5).
[19]Eglitis,A&T Olorunnipa.Trump’s NATO Skepticism Raises Alarm for Allies near Russia[EB/OL].https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-21/trumpsays-us-may-not-defend-nato-allies-against-russia-attackiqvw8gki.
[20]Flournoy,M A&S Brimley eds.Finding Our Way:Debating American Grand Strategy[M].Washington,DC:CNAS,2008.
[21]Freedman,L.Strategy:A History[M].New York:Oxford University Press,2013.
[22]Hallams,Ellen.United States and NATO Since 9/11:The Transatlantic Alliance Renewed[M].New York:Routledge,2010.
[23]Hudson,J.U.S.Assessing Cost of Keeping Troops in Germany as Trump Battles with Europe[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/usassessing-cost-of-keeping-troops-in-germany-as-trump-battles-with-europe/2018/06/29/94689094-ca9f-490c-b3be-b135970de3fc_story.html?utm_term=.c3bdf97da39c.
[24]Kelly,M.Many fact checks later,President Trump is(still)botching NATO spending[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/07/13/many-fact-checks-later-president-trump-is-still-botching-nato-spending/? utm_term=.940eda22947e.
[25]Lake,D A&P Gourevitch.“Hundreds of scholars have signed a statement defending the international institutions that Trump has attacked[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/08/14/hundreds-of-scholars-have-signeda-statement-defending-the-international-institutions-that-trump-has-attacked/?utm_term=.ed6c6b677458.
[26]Ministry of Defense.Defense Programs and Budget of Japan:Overview of FY 2018Budget Bill[EB/OL].http://www.mod.go.jp/e/d_budget/pdf/300227.pdf.
[27]Parker,K.Big dog Trump doesn’t need to anoint NATO’s hydrant[EB/OL].https://www. washingtonpost. com/opinions/big-dog-trump-doesnt-need-to-anoint-natoshydrant/2018/07/13/defbcfd6-86cc-11e8-8f6c-46cb43e3f306_story.html?utm_term=.d45aa9bf73f6.
[28]Posen,B R Restraint:a New Foundation for US Grand Strategy[M].Ithaca:Cornell University Press,2014.
[29]Posen,B R.The Rise of Illiberal Hegemony:Trump’s Surprising Grand Strategy[J].Foreign Affairs,2018(2).
[30]Selden,Z.Alignment,Alliance,and American Grand Strategy[M].Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press,2016.
[31]Smith,M.NATO Enlargement during the Cold War:Strategy and System in the Western Alliance[M],New York:Palgrave,2000.
[32]The White House.National Security Strategy of the United States of America(2017)[R].Washington,D.C.:The White House,2017.
[33]Thompson,J.Trump and the Future of US Grand Strategy[J].CSS Analyses in Security Policy,2017(12).
[34]Tuathail,G&S Dalby eds.The Geopolitics Reader[M].London and New York:Routledge,1998.
[35]Washington,G.George Washington’s Farewell Address To the People of the United States[EB/OL].https://www.varsitytutors.com/earlyamerica/milestone-events/george-washingtons-farewell-address-full-text.
(1)Freedman,L.Strategy:A History[M].New York:Oxford University Press,2013:139.
(1)[美]汉斯·摩根索.国家间政治:权力斗争与和平[M].徐昕等,译.北京:北京大学出版社,2006:238.
(1)[美]亨利·基辛格.大外交[M].顾淑馨等,译.海口:海南出版社,1998:411.
(2)Washington,G.George Washington’s Farewell Address To the People of the United States[EB/OL].https://www.varsitytutors.com/earlyamerica/milestone-events/george-washingtons-farewelladdress-full-text.
(3)[美]威廉·曼彻斯特.光荣与梦想:1932-1972年美国社会实录[M].朱协等,译,海口:海南出版社,2004:560.
(4)[美]保罗·肯尼迪.大国的兴衰:1500-2000年的经济变迁与军事冲突[M].陈景彪等,译.北京:国际文化出版公司,2006:356.
(1)Flournoy,M A&S Brimley eds.Finding Our Way:Debating American Grand Strategy[M].Washington,DC:CNAS,2008:46.
(2)Smith,M.NATO Enlargement during the Cold War:Strategy and System in the Western Alliance[M],New York:Palgrave,2000:176.
(3)Posen,B R.Restraint:a New Foundation for US Grand Strategy[M].Ithaca:Cornell University Press,2014:33.
(1)[美]保罗·肯尼迪.大国的兴衰:1500-2000年的经济变迁与军事冲突[M].陈景彪等,译.北京:国际文化出版公司,2006:508.
(2)不少美国学者批评道,“让一个拥有5亿美元经济的国家在防务上投入如此多得多的资金,以保护经济规模分别达到6万亿美元(欧共体)和3万亿美元(日本)的盟友免于一个拥有2万亿美元略多的国家(苏联)构成的威胁,这当然不是一种好战略。”见[美]保罗·肯尼迪主编.战争与和平的大战略[M].时殷弘等,译.北京:世界知识出版社,2005:180.
(3)沃尔特·李普曼(Walter Lippmann)语,转引自[美]保罗·肯尼迪.大国的兴衰:1500-2000年的经济变迁与军事冲突[M].陈景彪等,译.北京:国际文化出版公司,2006:521.
(4)典型的论述,可参见Tuathail,G&S Dalby eds.The Geopolitics Reader[M].London and New York:Routledge,1998:137.
(1)有学者认为,美国实现其“首要地位”的基础,一是美国的压倒性物质实力,二是关键性的安全机制。见Clarke,M&A Ricketts.US Grand Strategy and National Security:The Dilemmas of Primacy,Decline and Denial[J].Australian Journal of International Affairs,2017(5):489.
(2)Hallams,Ellen.United States and NATO Since 9/11:The Transatlantic Alliance Renewed[M].New York:Routledge,2010:111.
(3)Selden,Z.Alignment,Alliance,and American Grand Strategy[M].Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press,2016:42-43.
(4)冷战结束之初,日本、澳大利亚、韩国等美亚太地区盟国在维持与美同盟关系上出现的政策态度摇摆,可参见葛汉文.冷战后日本的地缘政治思想[J].和平与发展,2014(4):57-58.葛汉文.冷战后澳大利亚的地缘政治思想[J].战略决策研究,2015(4):79-80.以及葛汉文.“事大”还是平衡:韩国对外战略传统及其当下效应[J].和平与发展,2017(5):33-47.
(1)Selden,Z.Alignment,Alliance,and American Grand Strategy[M].Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press,2016:42-43.
(2)The White House.National Security Strategy of the United States of America(2017)[R].Washington,D.C.:The White House,2017.1-4.
(3)葛汉文.“拒绝衰落”与美国“要塞化”:特朗普的大战略[J].国际安全研究,2018(3):94.
(1)Brands,H.U S Grand Strategy in an Age of Nationalism:Fortress America and its Alternatives[J].The Washington Quarterly,2017(1):77.
(2)Eglitis,A&T Olorunnipa.Trump’s NATO Skepticism Raises Alarm for Allies near Russia[EB/OL].https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-21/trumpsays-u-s-may-not-defendnato-allies-against-russia-attackiqvw8gki.
(3)Burt,R.A Grand Strategy for Trump[J].National Interest,2017(3):5.
(4)Kelly,M.Many fact checks later,President Trump is(still)botching NATO spending[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/07/13/many-fact-checks-laterpresident-trump-is-still-botching-nato-spending/?utm_term=.940eda22947e
(5)Hudson,J.U S Assessing Cost of Keeping Troops in Germany as Trump Battles with Europe[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-assessing-cost-of-keepingtroops-in-germany-as-trump-battles-with-europe/2018/06/29/94689094-ca9f-490c-b3be-b135970de3fc_story.html?utm_term=.c3bdf97da39c
(1)Hudson,J.U S Assessing Cost of Keeping Troops in Germany as Trump Battles with Europe[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-assessing-cost-of-keepingtroops-in-germany-as-trump-battles-with-europe/2018/06/29/94689094-ca9f-490c-b3be-b135970de3fc_story.html?utm_term=.c3bdf97da39c
(2)NATO.Brussels Summit Declaration[EB/OL].https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_156624.htm
(3)Tuathail,G&S.Dalby(eds.).The Geopolitics Reader[M].London and New York:Routledge,1998:133.
(4)Ministry of Defense.Defense Programs and Budget of Japan:Overview of FY 2018Budget Bill[EB/OL].http://www.mod.goj.p/e/d_budget/pdf/300227.pdf.
(5)Hudson,J.U.S.Assessing Cost of Keeping Troops in Germany as Trump Battles with Europe[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-assessing-cost-of-keepingtroops-in-germany-as-trump-battles-with-europe/2018/06/29/94689094-ca9f-490c-b3be-b135970de3fc_story.html?utm_term=.c3bdf97da39c.
(1)Thompson,J.Trump and the Future of US Grand Strategy[J].CSS Analyses in Security Policy,2017(12):1.
(2)Posen,B R.The Rise of Illiberal Hegemony:Trump’s Surprising Grand Strategy[J].Foreign Affairs,2018(2):21.
(1)[美]克里斯托弗·莱恩.和平的幻想:1940年以来的美国大战略[M].孙建中,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2009:201.
(2)[美]保罗·肯尼迪.大国的兴衰:1500-2000年的经济变迁与军事冲突[M].陈景彪等,译.北京:国际文化出版公司,2006:517.
(3)[美]克里斯托弗·莱恩.和平的幻想:1940年以来的美国大战略[M].孙建中,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2009:9.
(1)Posen,B R.Restraint:a New Foundation for US Grand Strategy[M].Ithaca:Cornell University Press,2014:34.
(2)[美]克里斯托弗·莱恩.和平的幻想:1940年以来的美国大战略[M].孙建中,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2009:277-294.
(1)[美]汉斯·摩根索.国家间政治:权力斗争与和平[M].徐昕等,译.北京:北京大学出版社,2006:243.
(2)Brands,H.American Grand Strategy:Lessons from the Cold War[EB/OL].http://www.css.ethz.ch/content/specialinterest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/en/services/digital-library/articles/article.html/193677.
(1)NATO.Brussels Summit Declaration[EB/OL].https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_156624.htm.
(2)[美]威廉·奥尔森,戴维·麦克莱伦,弗雷德·桑德曼编.国际关系的理论与实践[M].王沿等,译.北京:中国社会科学出版社,1987:298.
(3)[美]保罗·肯尼迪主编.战争与和平的大战略[M].时殷弘等,译.北京:世界知识出版社,2005:182.
(1)伊斯梅爵士曾指出:“这个同盟的目标,是让美国人留下,让俄国人出去,让德国人倒下”。见Bassin,M.Between Realism and the“New Right”:Geopolitics in Germany in the 1990s[J].Transaction of the Institute of British Geographers,2003(3):354.
(2)转引自[美]克里斯托弗·莱恩.和平的幻想:1940年以来的美国大战略[M].孙建中,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2009:38.
(3)[美]克里斯托弗·莱恩.和平的幻想:1940年以来的美国大战略[M].孙建中,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2009:39.
(4)[美]米尔斯海默.大国政治的悲剧[M].王义桅,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2008:403.
(5)[美]米尔斯海默.大国政治的悲剧[M].王义桅,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2008:409.
(1)[美]保罗·肯尼迪主编.战争与和平的大战略[M].时殷弘等,译.北京:世界知识出版社,2005:180.
(1)特朗普同盟政策的调整,尤其是他在北约峰会上对其盟国的指责,在美国国内引发了诸多批评。其中最为犀利的批评称,特朗普的政策“对待朝鲜、俄罗斯这样的敌人,态度过于温和但却一无所获,对待盟友则过于严厉”。见Parker,K.Big dog Trump doesn’t need to anoint NATO’s hydrant[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/big-dog-trump-doesnt-need-to-anoint-natos-hydrant/2018/07/13/defbcfd6-86cc-11e8-8f6c-46cb43e3f306_story.html?utm_term=.d45aa9bf73f.而据《华盛顿邮报》报道,近期有近600名美国国际关系学者联名登报反对特朗普对于包括联合国、北约、世贸组织等在内的“战后国际机制”的敌视态度。这是继1930年1028名经济学家联名反对《斯姆特-霍利关税法》、以及2002年850名学者联名反对伊拉克战争之后,美国知识界的又一次集体表态。Lake,D A&P Gourevitch.“Hundreds of scholars have signed a statement defending the international institutions that Trump has attacked[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/08/14/hundreds-of-scholars-have-signed-astatement-defending-the-international-institutions-that-trump-has-attacked/?utm_term=.ed6c6b677458.
[2][美]保罗·肯尼迪.大国的兴衰:1500-2000年的经济变迁与军事冲突[M].陈景彪等,译.北京:国际文化出版公司,2006.
[3][美]汉斯·摩根索.国家间政治:权力斗争与和平[M].徐昕等,译.北京:北京大学出版社,2006.
[4][美]亨利·基辛格.大外交[M].顾淑馨等,译.海口:海南出版社,1998.
[5][美]克里斯托弗·莱恩.和平的幻想:1940年以来的美国大战略[M].孙建中,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2009.
[6][美]米尔斯海默.大国政治的悲剧[M].王义桅,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2008.
[7][美]威廉·奥尔森,戴维·麦克莱伦,弗雷德·桑德曼编.国际关系的理论与实践[M].王沿等,译.北京:中国社会科学出版社,1987.
[8][美]威廉·曼彻斯特.光荣与梦想:1932-1972年美国社会实录[M].朱协等,译.海口:海南出版社,2004.
[9]葛汉文.“事大”还是平衡:韩国对外战略传统及其当下效应[J].和平与发展,2017(5).
[10]葛汉文.“拒绝衰落”与美国“要塞化”:特朗普的大战略[J].国际安全研究,2018(3).
[11]葛汉文.冷战后澳大利亚的地缘政治思想[J].战略决策研究,2015(4).
[12]葛汉文.冷战后日本的地缘政治思想[J].和平与发展,2014(4).
[13]孙云飞.霸权衰落下的责任转移:特朗普执政后的亚太同盟体系[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2017(5).
[14]Bassin,M.Between Realism and the“New Right”:Geopolitics in Germany in the1990s[J].Transaction of the Institute of British Geographers,2003(3).
[15]Brands,H.American Grand Strategy:Lessons from the Cold War[EB/OL].http://www.css.ethz.ch/content/specialinterest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/en/services/digital-library/articles/article.html/193677.
[16]Brands,H.U S Grand Strategy in an Age of Nationalism:Fortress America and its Alternatives[J].The Washington Quarterly,2017(1).
[17]Burt,R.A Grand Strategy for Trump[J].National Interest,2017(3).
[18]Clarke,M&A Ricketts.US Grand Strategy and National Security:The Dilemmas of Primacy,Decline and Denial[J].Australian Journal of International Affairs,2017(5).
[19]Eglitis,A&T Olorunnipa.Trump’s NATO Skepticism Raises Alarm for Allies near Russia[EB/OL].https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-21/trumpsays-us-may-not-defend-nato-allies-against-russia-attackiqvw8gki.
[20]Flournoy,M A&S Brimley eds.Finding Our Way:Debating American Grand Strategy[M].Washington,DC:CNAS,2008.
[21]Freedman,L.Strategy:A History[M].New York:Oxford University Press,2013.
[22]Hallams,Ellen.United States and NATO Since 9/11:The Transatlantic Alliance Renewed[M].New York:Routledge,2010.
[23]Hudson,J.U.S.Assessing Cost of Keeping Troops in Germany as Trump Battles with Europe[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/usassessing-cost-of-keeping-troops-in-germany-as-trump-battles-with-europe/2018/06/29/94689094-ca9f-490c-b3be-b135970de3fc_story.html?utm_term=.c3bdf97da39c.
[24]Kelly,M.Many fact checks later,President Trump is(still)botching NATO spending[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/07/13/many-fact-checks-later-president-trump-is-still-botching-nato-spending/? utm_term=.940eda22947e.
[25]Lake,D A&P Gourevitch.“Hundreds of scholars have signed a statement defending the international institutions that Trump has attacked[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/08/14/hundreds-of-scholars-have-signeda-statement-defending-the-international-institutions-that-trump-has-attacked/?utm_term=.ed6c6b677458.
[26]Ministry of Defense.Defense Programs and Budget of Japan:Overview of FY 2018Budget Bill[EB/OL].http://www.mod.go.jp/e/d_budget/pdf/300227.pdf.
[27]Parker,K.Big dog Trump doesn’t need to anoint NATO’s hydrant[EB/OL].https://www. washingtonpost. com/opinions/big-dog-trump-doesnt-need-to-anoint-natoshydrant/2018/07/13/defbcfd6-86cc-11e8-8f6c-46cb43e3f306_story.html?utm_term=.d45aa9bf73f6.
[28]Posen,B R Restraint:a New Foundation for US Grand Strategy[M].Ithaca:Cornell University Press,2014.
[29]Posen,B R.The Rise of Illiberal Hegemony:Trump’s Surprising Grand Strategy[J].Foreign Affairs,2018(2).
[30]Selden,Z.Alignment,Alliance,and American Grand Strategy[M].Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press,2016.
[31]Smith,M.NATO Enlargement during the Cold War:Strategy and System in the Western Alliance[M],New York:Palgrave,2000.
[32]The White House.National Security Strategy of the United States of America(2017)[R].Washington,D.C.:The White House,2017.
[33]Thompson,J.Trump and the Future of US Grand Strategy[J].CSS Analyses in Security Policy,2017(12).
[34]Tuathail,G&S Dalby eds.The Geopolitics Reader[M].London and New York:Routledge,1998.
[35]Washington,G.George Washington’s Farewell Address To the People of the United States[EB/OL].https://www.varsitytutors.com/earlyamerica/milestone-events/george-washingtons-farewell-address-full-text.
(1)Freedman,L.Strategy:A History[M].New York:Oxford University Press,2013:139.
(1)[美]汉斯·摩根索.国家间政治:权力斗争与和平[M].徐昕等,译.北京:北京大学出版社,2006:238.
(1)[美]亨利·基辛格.大外交[M].顾淑馨等,译.海口:海南出版社,1998:411.
(2)Washington,G.George Washington’s Farewell Address To the People of the United States[EB/OL].https://www.varsitytutors.com/earlyamerica/milestone-events/george-washingtons-farewelladdress-full-text.
(3)[美]威廉·曼彻斯特.光荣与梦想:1932-1972年美国社会实录[M].朱协等,译,海口:海南出版社,2004:560.
(4)[美]保罗·肯尼迪.大国的兴衰:1500-2000年的经济变迁与军事冲突[M].陈景彪等,译.北京:国际文化出版公司,2006:356.
(1)Flournoy,M A&S Brimley eds.Finding Our Way:Debating American Grand Strategy[M].Washington,DC:CNAS,2008:46.
(2)Smith,M.NATO Enlargement during the Cold War:Strategy and System in the Western Alliance[M],New York:Palgrave,2000:176.
(3)Posen,B R.Restraint:a New Foundation for US Grand Strategy[M].Ithaca:Cornell University Press,2014:33.
(1)[美]保罗·肯尼迪.大国的兴衰:1500-2000年的经济变迁与军事冲突[M].陈景彪等,译.北京:国际文化出版公司,2006:508.
(2)不少美国学者批评道,“让一个拥有5亿美元经济的国家在防务上投入如此多得多的资金,以保护经济规模分别达到6万亿美元(欧共体)和3万亿美元(日本)的盟友免于一个拥有2万亿美元略多的国家(苏联)构成的威胁,这当然不是一种好战略。”见[美]保罗·肯尼迪主编.战争与和平的大战略[M].时殷弘等,译.北京:世界知识出版社,2005:180.
(3)沃尔特·李普曼(Walter Lippmann)语,转引自[美]保罗·肯尼迪.大国的兴衰:1500-2000年的经济变迁与军事冲突[M].陈景彪等,译.北京:国际文化出版公司,2006:521.
(4)典型的论述,可参见Tuathail,G&S Dalby eds.The Geopolitics Reader[M].London and New York:Routledge,1998:137.
(1)有学者认为,美国实现其“首要地位”的基础,一是美国的压倒性物质实力,二是关键性的安全机制。见Clarke,M&A Ricketts.US Grand Strategy and National Security:The Dilemmas of Primacy,Decline and Denial[J].Australian Journal of International Affairs,2017(5):489.
(2)Hallams,Ellen.United States and NATO Since 9/11:The Transatlantic Alliance Renewed[M].New York:Routledge,2010:111.
(3)Selden,Z.Alignment,Alliance,and American Grand Strategy[M].Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press,2016:42-43.
(4)冷战结束之初,日本、澳大利亚、韩国等美亚太地区盟国在维持与美同盟关系上出现的政策态度摇摆,可参见葛汉文.冷战后日本的地缘政治思想[J].和平与发展,2014(4):57-58.葛汉文.冷战后澳大利亚的地缘政治思想[J].战略决策研究,2015(4):79-80.以及葛汉文.“事大”还是平衡:韩国对外战略传统及其当下效应[J].和平与发展,2017(5):33-47.
(1)Selden,Z.Alignment,Alliance,and American Grand Strategy[M].Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press,2016:42-43.
(2)The White House.National Security Strategy of the United States of America(2017)[R].Washington,D.C.:The White House,2017.1-4.
(3)葛汉文.“拒绝衰落”与美国“要塞化”:特朗普的大战略[J].国际安全研究,2018(3):94.
(1)Brands,H.U S Grand Strategy in an Age of Nationalism:Fortress America and its Alternatives[J].The Washington Quarterly,2017(1):77.
(2)Eglitis,A&T Olorunnipa.Trump’s NATO Skepticism Raises Alarm for Allies near Russia[EB/OL].https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-21/trumpsays-u-s-may-not-defendnato-allies-against-russia-attackiqvw8gki.
(3)Burt,R.A Grand Strategy for Trump[J].National Interest,2017(3):5.
(4)Kelly,M.Many fact checks later,President Trump is(still)botching NATO spending[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/07/13/many-fact-checks-laterpresident-trump-is-still-botching-nato-spending/?utm_term=.940eda22947e
(5)Hudson,J.U S Assessing Cost of Keeping Troops in Germany as Trump Battles with Europe[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-assessing-cost-of-keepingtroops-in-germany-as-trump-battles-with-europe/2018/06/29/94689094-ca9f-490c-b3be-b135970de3fc_story.html?utm_term=.c3bdf97da39c
(1)Hudson,J.U S Assessing Cost of Keeping Troops in Germany as Trump Battles with Europe[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-assessing-cost-of-keepingtroops-in-germany-as-trump-battles-with-europe/2018/06/29/94689094-ca9f-490c-b3be-b135970de3fc_story.html?utm_term=.c3bdf97da39c
(2)NATO.Brussels Summit Declaration[EB/OL].https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_156624.htm
(3)Tuathail,G&S.Dalby(eds.).The Geopolitics Reader[M].London and New York:Routledge,1998:133.
(4)Ministry of Defense.Defense Programs and Budget of Japan:Overview of FY 2018Budget Bill[EB/OL].http://www.mod.goj.p/e/d_budget/pdf/300227.pdf.
(5)Hudson,J.U.S.Assessing Cost of Keeping Troops in Germany as Trump Battles with Europe[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-assessing-cost-of-keepingtroops-in-germany-as-trump-battles-with-europe/2018/06/29/94689094-ca9f-490c-b3be-b135970de3fc_story.html?utm_term=.c3bdf97da39c.
(1)Thompson,J.Trump and the Future of US Grand Strategy[J].CSS Analyses in Security Policy,2017(12):1.
(2)Posen,B R.The Rise of Illiberal Hegemony:Trump’s Surprising Grand Strategy[J].Foreign Affairs,2018(2):21.
(1)[美]克里斯托弗·莱恩.和平的幻想:1940年以来的美国大战略[M].孙建中,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2009:201.
(2)[美]保罗·肯尼迪.大国的兴衰:1500-2000年的经济变迁与军事冲突[M].陈景彪等,译.北京:国际文化出版公司,2006:517.
(3)[美]克里斯托弗·莱恩.和平的幻想:1940年以来的美国大战略[M].孙建中,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2009:9.
(1)Posen,B R.Restraint:a New Foundation for US Grand Strategy[M].Ithaca:Cornell University Press,2014:34.
(2)[美]克里斯托弗·莱恩.和平的幻想:1940年以来的美国大战略[M].孙建中,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2009:277-294.
(1)[美]汉斯·摩根索.国家间政治:权力斗争与和平[M].徐昕等,译.北京:北京大学出版社,2006:243.
(2)Brands,H.American Grand Strategy:Lessons from the Cold War[EB/OL].http://www.css.ethz.ch/content/specialinterest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/en/services/digital-library/articles/article.html/193677.
(1)NATO.Brussels Summit Declaration[EB/OL].https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_156624.htm.
(2)[美]威廉·奥尔森,戴维·麦克莱伦,弗雷德·桑德曼编.国际关系的理论与实践[M].王沿等,译.北京:中国社会科学出版社,1987:298.
(3)[美]保罗·肯尼迪主编.战争与和平的大战略[M].时殷弘等,译.北京:世界知识出版社,2005:182.
(1)伊斯梅爵士曾指出:“这个同盟的目标,是让美国人留下,让俄国人出去,让德国人倒下”。见Bassin,M.Between Realism and the“New Right”:Geopolitics in Germany in the 1990s[J].Transaction of the Institute of British Geographers,2003(3):354.
(2)转引自[美]克里斯托弗·莱恩.和平的幻想:1940年以来的美国大战略[M].孙建中,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2009:38.
(3)[美]克里斯托弗·莱恩.和平的幻想:1940年以来的美国大战略[M].孙建中,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2009:39.
(4)[美]米尔斯海默.大国政治的悲剧[M].王义桅,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2008:403.
(5)[美]米尔斯海默.大国政治的悲剧[M].王义桅,译.上海:上海人民出版社,2008:409.
(1)[美]保罗·肯尼迪主编.战争与和平的大战略[M].时殷弘等,译.北京:世界知识出版社,2005:180.
(1)特朗普同盟政策的调整,尤其是他在北约峰会上对其盟国的指责,在美国国内引发了诸多批评。其中最为犀利的批评称,特朗普的政策“对待朝鲜、俄罗斯这样的敌人,态度过于温和但却一无所获,对待盟友则过于严厉”。见Parker,K.Big dog Trump doesn’t need to anoint NATO’s hydrant[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/big-dog-trump-doesnt-need-to-anoint-natos-hydrant/2018/07/13/defbcfd6-86cc-11e8-8f6c-46cb43e3f306_story.html?utm_term=.d45aa9bf73f.而据《华盛顿邮报》报道,近期有近600名美国国际关系学者联名登报反对特朗普对于包括联合国、北约、世贸组织等在内的“战后国际机制”的敌视态度。这是继1930年1028名经济学家联名反对《斯姆特-霍利关税法》、以及2002年850名学者联名反对伊拉克战争之后,美国知识界的又一次集体表态。Lake,D A&P Gourevitch.“Hundreds of scholars have signed a statement defending the international institutions that Trump has attacked[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/08/14/hundreds-of-scholars-have-signed-astatement-defending-the-international-institutions-that-trump-has-attacked/?utm_term=.ed6c6b677458.