欠发达地区农户兼业对其土地转出行为的影响——基于云南省558户农户的调查
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摘要
为研究欠发达地区农户兼业对土地转出的影响,基于云南省的调研数据,利用Logit模型和多元线性回归模型对欠发达地区农户兼业对土地转出的影响进行实证分析,并以村级平均受教育水平作为工具变量,通过IVProbit模型和2SLS模型控制了内生性问题。结果表明:单一的认为农户兼业促进或抑制土地流转是欠妥的,事实是农户流转土地与其兼业程度有关;不同兼业类型的农户选择转出土地的概率存在显著差异,Ⅰ兼农户转出土地的概率显著低于纯农户,而Ⅱ兼农户与非农户选择转出土地的概率更高;农户转出土地面积比重与农户兼业程度呈现U型曲线关系。基于此,欠发达地区在推进农村土地流转时可以通过出台相应的引导性政策,充分发挥兼业农户内在土地转出需求的作用,促使欠发达地区广泛且分散的兼业小农自发的转出手中的土地。
In order to study the impact of peasants' part-time working on land transfer in less-developed areas.Based on a survey data of Yunnan Province,an empirical analysis is performed using Logit and multiple linear regression model.The average level of education was used as instrumental variable to control the endogeneity problem by IV-Probit and2 SLS model.The results show that:It is not proper to simply think that the part-time working behavior of peasants will promote or inhibit the land transfer.The probability is related to the degree of part-time working behavior of peasants;Peasants' land transfer has significant difference under different levels of part-time working behavior,Part-time working peasants and non-farming peasants choose to outflow their land more likely;The relationship between the ratio of the land outflow and the degree of part-time working behavior of peasants show U-shaped curve.In conclusion,during the process of promoting rural land circulation,the corresponding guiding policies could be introduced to less developed areas by giving the peasants of own initiative full play to the role in the promotion of rural land circulation and promoting the widespread and scattered part-time working peasants in less developed areas to transfer their land voluntarily.
In order to study the impact of peasants' part-time working on land transfer in less-developed areas.Based on a survey data of Yunnan Province,an empirical analysis is performed using Logit and multiple linear regression model.The average level of education was used as instrumental variable to control the endogeneity problem by IV-Probit and2 SLS model.The results show that:It is not proper to simply think that the part-time working behavior of peasants will promote or inhibit the land transfer.The probability is related to the degree of part-time working behavior of peasants;Peasants' land transfer has significant difference under different levels of part-time working behavior,Part-time working peasants and non-farming peasants choose to outflow their land more likely;The relationship between the ratio of the land outflow and the degree of part-time working behavior of peasants show U-shaped curve.In conclusion,during the process of promoting rural land circulation,the corresponding guiding policies could be introduced to less developed areas by giving the peasants of own initiative full play to the role in the promotion of rural land circulation and promoting the widespread and scattered part-time working peasants in less developed areas to transfer their land voluntarily.
引文
[1]高雪萍,陈浩,周波.水稻兼业户技术应用特征研究:基于江西省调查样本的分析[J].农林经济管理学报,2012,11(4):17-23Gao X P,Chen H,Zhou B.Part-time rice-planting farmers'features of technology application:A study based on survey data from Jiangxi Province[J].Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management,2012,11(4):17-23(in Chinese)
[2]张璟,程郁,郑风田.市场化进程中农户兼业对其土地转出选择的影响研究[J].中国软科学,2016(3):1-12Zhang J,Cheng Y,Zheng F T.A research on the effects of farmers'part-time employment on households'choices of land transfer under the background of marketization[J].China Soft Science,2016(3):1-12(in Chinese)
[3]郜亮亮,黄季焜,冀县卿.村级流转管制对农地流转的影响及其变迁[J].中国农村经济,2014(12):18-29Hao L L,Huang J K,Ji X Q.Influence of village level transfer control on rural land transfer and its change[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2014(12):18-29(in Chinese)
[4]句芳,高海秀.农牧户兼业行为对土地承包经营权流转的影响:基于内蒙古农村牧区1 332户农牧户的调查[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(12):75-78Ju F,Gao H X.The impact of the part-time work of farming and grazing households in rural areas and pastureland of Inner Mongolia on the use rights transfer of the contracted land[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,29(12):75-78(in Chinese)
[5]黄延廷.从农户兼业化对农地规模经营的制约机理谈我国农地规模化经营的对策[J].管理现代化,2011(3):44-46Huang Y T.Discussion on the countermeasures of scale management of farmland in China from the restriction mechanism of farmers'concurrent operation to the scale management of farmland[J].Modernization of Management,2011(3):44-46(in Chinese)
[6]胡霞,丁浩.农地流转影响因素的实证分析:基于CHIPS 8000农户数据[J].经济理论与经济管理,2015,35(5):17-25Hu X,Ding H.Empirical analysis of influencing factors of rural land transfer:Based on CHIPS 8000 household data[J].Economic Theory and Business Management,2015,35(5):17-25(in Chinese)
[7]钱忠好.非农就业是否必然导致农地流转:基于家庭内部分工的理论分析及其对中国农户兼业化的解释[J].中国农村经济,2008(10):13-21Qian Z H.Does non agricultural employment necessarily lead to rural land transfer:Based on the theoretical analysis of family internal divisionof labor and its interpretation of Chinese farmers'concurrent occupation[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2008(10):13-21(in Chinese)
[8]侯明利.农村劳动力流动与农地流转的学理探究[J].商业时代,2013(17):17-18Hou M L.Theoretical research on rural labor mobility and rural land transfer[J].Journal of Commercial Economics,2013(17):17-18(in Chinese)
[9]张会萍,倪全学,杨绍艳.土地流转的影响因素分析:基于宁夏银北地区平罗县样本农户的调查[J].农村经济,2011(1):17-20Zhang H P,Ni Q X,Yang S Y.Analysis of influencing factors of land circulation:Based on a survey of the farmers of Pingluo County,the northern area of Ningxia as an example[J].Rural Economy,2011(1):17-20(in Chinese)
[10]许恒周,郭玉燕.农民非农收入与农村土地流转关系的协整分析:以江苏省南京市为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(6):61-66Xu H Z,Guo Y Y.Cointegration analysis of the relationship between farmers'non-agricultural income and rural land transfer:A case study of Nanjing City,Jiangsu Province[J].China Population·Resources and Environment,2011,21(6):61-66(in Chinese)
[11]Kung K S.Off-Farm labor markets and the emergence of land rental markets in rural China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,30(2):395-414
[12]高强.国外农户兼业化研究述评[J].世界农业,1998(11):3-5Gao Q.A review of the research on the concurrent farming of farmers in foreign countries[J].World Agriculture,1998(11):3-5(in Chinese)
[13]马永良.中国农户兼业问题的经济分析[D].京都:日本京都大学.2002Ma Y L.Economic analysis of Chinese farmers'concurrent work[D].Kyoto:Kyoto University,Japan,2002(in Chinese)
[14]廖洪乐.农户兼业及其对农地承包经营权流转的影响[J].管理世界,2012(5):62-70Liao H L.The part-time work of farmers and its impact on the use rights transfer of the agricultural land[J].Management World,2012(5):62-70(in Chinese)
[15]Schultz T W,梁小民.改造传统农业[M].北京:商务印书馆,2006Schultz T W,Liang X M.Transformation of traditional agriculture[M].Beijing:Commercial Press,2006(in Chinese)
[16]扶玉枝,朱磊.农户选择兼业经营的经济学分析[J].贵州财经大学学报,2008(1):68-72Fu Y Z,Zhu L.Economic analysis of farmers'choice of concurrent business[J].Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,2008(1):68-72(in Chinese)
[17]高佳,李世平,宋戈.基于广义多层线性模型的农户土地承包经营权退出意愿[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(4):162-170Gao J,Li S P,Song G.Farmers'willingness to withdraw from land contractual management rights based on generalized multilevel linear model[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2017,22(4):162-170(in Chinese)
[18]蔡书凯,蔡荣.土地信托流转与农户参与意愿:基于Probit-ISM分析方法[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(7):173-185Cai S K,Cai R.Land trust circulation and farmers'willingness:Based on Probit-ISM model[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2017,22(7):173-185(in Chinese)
[19]贾琳,夏英.我国种粮农户耕地流转的基本特点及政策启示[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(4):35-40Jia L,Xia Y.Basic characteristics and policy implications of cultivated land transfer of grain farmers in China[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2017,38(4):35-40(in Chinese)
[20]王团真,陈钦,钱鼎炜.福建省农户分化对林地流转行为的影响研究[J].林业经济问题,2016,36(4):314-318Wang T Z,Chen Q,Qian D W.Research on Fujian Province rural household differentiation effect on the behavior of woodland circulation[J].Issues of Forestry Economics,2016,36(4):314-318(in Chinese)
[21]李龙,宋月萍.农地流转对家庭化流动的影响:来自流出地的证据[J].公共管理学报,2016(2):76-83Li L,Song Y P.The impact of farmland transfer on family mobility:Evidence from the outflow area[J].Journal of Public Management,2016(2):76-83(in Chinese)
[22]牛建林.农村地区外出务工潮对义务教育阶段辍学的影响[J].中国人口科学,2012(4):103-110Niu J L.Rural migrant labor unrest impact on the stage of compulsory education school[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,2012(4):103-110(in Chinese)
[23]Stock J H,Yogo M.Testing for weak instruments in linear IV regression[J].Nber Technical Working Papers,2002,14(1):80-108
[24]阮荣平,郑风田,刘力.宗教信仰与社会冲突:根源还是工具[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(1):793-816.Ruan R P,Zheng F T,Liu L.Religious belief and social conflict:root or tool[J].China Economic Quarterly,2014,13(1):793-816(in Chinese)
(1)参照廖洪乐[14]的处理方法,将图中左半部非农劳动时间比率为零的点(共5户,全部为纯农户)合并,右半部非农劳动时间比率与土地转出面积比重同时为1的点(共11户,全部为非农户)合并,曲线即成为U型曲线。
(1)目前并没有一个有效的方法对受限性因变量的弱工具变量问题进行检验,本研究依照阮荣平[24]的处理经验,通过第一阶段工具变量对内生变量的显著性来对此问题做一个基本判断。也有部分研究将第一阶段回归的F统计量作为识别弱工具变量问题的指标,对此,本研究F统计量远高于通常建议的经验临界值10,可以作为IV-Probit模型基本不存在弱工具变量问题的另一项证据。
[2]张璟,程郁,郑风田.市场化进程中农户兼业对其土地转出选择的影响研究[J].中国软科学,2016(3):1-12Zhang J,Cheng Y,Zheng F T.A research on the effects of farmers'part-time employment on households'choices of land transfer under the background of marketization[J].China Soft Science,2016(3):1-12(in Chinese)
[3]郜亮亮,黄季焜,冀县卿.村级流转管制对农地流转的影响及其变迁[J].中国农村经济,2014(12):18-29Hao L L,Huang J K,Ji X Q.Influence of village level transfer control on rural land transfer and its change[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2014(12):18-29(in Chinese)
[4]句芳,高海秀.农牧户兼业行为对土地承包经营权流转的影响:基于内蒙古农村牧区1 332户农牧户的调查[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(12):75-78Ju F,Gao H X.The impact of the part-time work of farming and grazing households in rural areas and pastureland of Inner Mongolia on the use rights transfer of the contracted land[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,29(12):75-78(in Chinese)
[5]黄延廷.从农户兼业化对农地规模经营的制约机理谈我国农地规模化经营的对策[J].管理现代化,2011(3):44-46Huang Y T.Discussion on the countermeasures of scale management of farmland in China from the restriction mechanism of farmers'concurrent operation to the scale management of farmland[J].Modernization of Management,2011(3):44-46(in Chinese)
[6]胡霞,丁浩.农地流转影响因素的实证分析:基于CHIPS 8000农户数据[J].经济理论与经济管理,2015,35(5):17-25Hu X,Ding H.Empirical analysis of influencing factors of rural land transfer:Based on CHIPS 8000 household data[J].Economic Theory and Business Management,2015,35(5):17-25(in Chinese)
[7]钱忠好.非农就业是否必然导致农地流转:基于家庭内部分工的理论分析及其对中国农户兼业化的解释[J].中国农村经济,2008(10):13-21Qian Z H.Does non agricultural employment necessarily lead to rural land transfer:Based on the theoretical analysis of family internal divisionof labor and its interpretation of Chinese farmers'concurrent occupation[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2008(10):13-21(in Chinese)
[8]侯明利.农村劳动力流动与农地流转的学理探究[J].商业时代,2013(17):17-18Hou M L.Theoretical research on rural labor mobility and rural land transfer[J].Journal of Commercial Economics,2013(17):17-18(in Chinese)
[9]张会萍,倪全学,杨绍艳.土地流转的影响因素分析:基于宁夏银北地区平罗县样本农户的调查[J].农村经济,2011(1):17-20Zhang H P,Ni Q X,Yang S Y.Analysis of influencing factors of land circulation:Based on a survey of the farmers of Pingluo County,the northern area of Ningxia as an example[J].Rural Economy,2011(1):17-20(in Chinese)
[10]许恒周,郭玉燕.农民非农收入与农村土地流转关系的协整分析:以江苏省南京市为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(6):61-66Xu H Z,Guo Y Y.Cointegration analysis of the relationship between farmers'non-agricultural income and rural land transfer:A case study of Nanjing City,Jiangsu Province[J].China Population·Resources and Environment,2011,21(6):61-66(in Chinese)
[11]Kung K S.Off-Farm labor markets and the emergence of land rental markets in rural China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,30(2):395-414
[12]高强.国外农户兼业化研究述评[J].世界农业,1998(11):3-5Gao Q.A review of the research on the concurrent farming of farmers in foreign countries[J].World Agriculture,1998(11):3-5(in Chinese)
[13]马永良.中国农户兼业问题的经济分析[D].京都:日本京都大学.2002Ma Y L.Economic analysis of Chinese farmers'concurrent work[D].Kyoto:Kyoto University,Japan,2002(in Chinese)
[14]廖洪乐.农户兼业及其对农地承包经营权流转的影响[J].管理世界,2012(5):62-70Liao H L.The part-time work of farmers and its impact on the use rights transfer of the agricultural land[J].Management World,2012(5):62-70(in Chinese)
[15]Schultz T W,梁小民.改造传统农业[M].北京:商务印书馆,2006Schultz T W,Liang X M.Transformation of traditional agriculture[M].Beijing:Commercial Press,2006(in Chinese)
[16]扶玉枝,朱磊.农户选择兼业经营的经济学分析[J].贵州财经大学学报,2008(1):68-72Fu Y Z,Zhu L.Economic analysis of farmers'choice of concurrent business[J].Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,2008(1):68-72(in Chinese)
[17]高佳,李世平,宋戈.基于广义多层线性模型的农户土地承包经营权退出意愿[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(4):162-170Gao J,Li S P,Song G.Farmers'willingness to withdraw from land contractual management rights based on generalized multilevel linear model[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2017,22(4):162-170(in Chinese)
[18]蔡书凯,蔡荣.土地信托流转与农户参与意愿:基于Probit-ISM分析方法[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(7):173-185Cai S K,Cai R.Land trust circulation and farmers'willingness:Based on Probit-ISM model[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2017,22(7):173-185(in Chinese)
[19]贾琳,夏英.我国种粮农户耕地流转的基本特点及政策启示[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(4):35-40Jia L,Xia Y.Basic characteristics and policy implications of cultivated land transfer of grain farmers in China[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2017,38(4):35-40(in Chinese)
[20]王团真,陈钦,钱鼎炜.福建省农户分化对林地流转行为的影响研究[J].林业经济问题,2016,36(4):314-318Wang T Z,Chen Q,Qian D W.Research on Fujian Province rural household differentiation effect on the behavior of woodland circulation[J].Issues of Forestry Economics,2016,36(4):314-318(in Chinese)
[21]李龙,宋月萍.农地流转对家庭化流动的影响:来自流出地的证据[J].公共管理学报,2016(2):76-83Li L,Song Y P.The impact of farmland transfer on family mobility:Evidence from the outflow area[J].Journal of Public Management,2016(2):76-83(in Chinese)
[22]牛建林.农村地区外出务工潮对义务教育阶段辍学的影响[J].中国人口科学,2012(4):103-110Niu J L.Rural migrant labor unrest impact on the stage of compulsory education school[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,2012(4):103-110(in Chinese)
[23]Stock J H,Yogo M.Testing for weak instruments in linear IV regression[J].Nber Technical Working Papers,2002,14(1):80-108
[24]阮荣平,郑风田,刘力.宗教信仰与社会冲突:根源还是工具[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(1):793-816.Ruan R P,Zheng F T,Liu L.Religious belief and social conflict:root or tool[J].China Economic Quarterly,2014,13(1):793-816(in Chinese)
(1)参照廖洪乐[14]的处理方法,将图中左半部非农劳动时间比率为零的点(共5户,全部为纯农户)合并,右半部非农劳动时间比率与土地转出面积比重同时为1的点(共11户,全部为非农户)合并,曲线即成为U型曲线。
(1)目前并没有一个有效的方法对受限性因变量的弱工具变量问题进行检验,本研究依照阮荣平[24]的处理经验,通过第一阶段工具变量对内生变量的显著性来对此问题做一个基本判断。也有部分研究将第一阶段回归的F统计量作为识别弱工具变量问题的指标,对此,本研究F统计量远高于通常建议的经验临界值10,可以作为IV-Probit模型基本不存在弱工具变量问题的另一项证据。