金沙江下游梯级水库运行期设计洪水及汛控水位
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摘要
研究探讨梯级水库运行期设计洪水计算理论和方法,实现防洪和发电效益最大化。采用t-Copula函数建立各分区洪水的联合分布,通过蒙特卡罗法和遗传算法(GA)推求金沙江下游梯级水库的最可能地区组成;分析计算各水库运行期的设计洪水及汛控水位。结果表明:①最可能地区组成结果合理可靠,可为梯级水库运行期设计洪水的分析计算提供依据;②金沙江下游梯级水库受上游水库调蓄影响显著,向家坝水库1 000年一遇设计洪峰15 400 m~3/s(35%),3 d、7 d和30 d洪量的削减量(削减率)分别为35.6亿m~3(33%)、70.2亿m~3(30%)和85.0亿m~3(11%);③在不降低防洪标准的前提下,下游各水库在运行期汛控水位相比汛限水位可适当抬高,白鹤滩、溪洛渡和向家坝水库的汛控水位(汛限水位)分别为788.82 m(785 m)、570.67 m(560 m)和371.36 m(370 m),汛期年均发电量分别增加2.1%、6.1%和1.4%,年增发电量17.1亿kW·h。
This study proposes a design flood estimation method for cascade reservoirs during operation period to maximize the comprehensive benefits both for flood control and hydropower generation.The joint probability distributions of floods occurring at all sub-basins are established using the multivariate t-Copula function. The most likely regional composition is derived using the Monte Carlo simulation and the Genetic Algorithm(GA) methods. The design floods as well as the flood limited water levels of the Wudongde-Baihetan-Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs duringoperation period are analyzed. It is shown that:① The results of the most likely flood regional composition are reasonable and can offer a meaningful reference for the analysis of design flood estimation for cascade reservoirs.② The design floods of downstream reservoirs are significantly influenced by the operation of upstream reservoirs. The 1000-year design flood peak,3 d,7 d and 30 d design flood volumes at Xiangjiaba reservoir significantly decrease by 15 400 m~3/s(35%),3.56 billon m~3(33%),7.02 billon m~3(30%) and 8.50 billion m~(3 )(11%),respectively.③ The obtained flood control water levels of downstream reservoirs are slightly higher than flood limited water levels but without reducing the original flood prevention standards. The flood control water levels(flood limited water levels) of Baihetan,Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba reservoirs during operation period are 788.82 m(785 m) 、570.67 m(560 m) and 371.36 m(370 m),which can increase the hydropower generation by 2.1%,6.1% and 1.4%,respectively,and in total 1.71 billion kW·h annually.
This study proposes a design flood estimation method for cascade reservoirs during operation period to maximize the comprehensive benefits both for flood control and hydropower generation.The joint probability distributions of floods occurring at all sub-basins are established using the multivariate t-Copula function. The most likely regional composition is derived using the Monte Carlo simulation and the Genetic Algorithm(GA) methods. The design floods as well as the flood limited water levels of the Wudongde-Baihetan-Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs duringoperation period are analyzed. It is shown that:① The results of the most likely flood regional composition are reasonable and can offer a meaningful reference for the analysis of design flood estimation for cascade reservoirs.② The design floods of downstream reservoirs are significantly influenced by the operation of upstream reservoirs. The 1000-year design flood peak,3 d,7 d and 30 d design flood volumes at Xiangjiaba reservoir significantly decrease by 15 400 m~3/s(35%),3.56 billon m~3(33%),7.02 billon m~3(30%) and 8.50 billion m~(3 )(11%),respectively.③ The obtained flood control water levels of downstream reservoirs are slightly higher than flood limited water levels but without reducing the original flood prevention standards. The flood control water levels(flood limited water levels) of Baihetan,Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba reservoirs during operation period are 788.82 m(785 m) 、570.67 m(560 m) and 371.36 m(370 m),which can increase the hydropower generation by 2.1%,6.1% and 1.4%,respectively,and in total 1.71 billion kW·h annually.
引文
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[10] 刘章君,郭生练,李天元,等.梯级水库设计洪水最可能地区组成法计算通式[J].水科学进展,2014,25(4):575-584.(LIU Z J,GUO S L,LI T Y,et al.General formula derivation of most likely regional composition method for design flood estimation of cascade reservoirs system[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(4):575-584.(in Chinese))
[11] NIKOLOULOPOULOS A K,JOE H,LI H.Extreme value properties of multivariate t-Copulas[J].Extremes,2009,12(2):129-148.
[12] WANG Z R,CHEN X H,JIN Y B,et al.Estimating risk of foreign exchange portfolio:using VaR and CVaR based on GARCH-EVT-copula model[J].Physica A Statistical Mechanics & Its Applications,2010,389(21):4918- 4928.
[13] SERINALDI F,BONACCORSO B,CANCELLIERE A,et al.Probabilistic characterization of drought properties through copulas[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,Parts A/B/C,2009,34(10/11/12):596- 605.
[2] 周新春,许银山,冯宝飞.长江上游干流梯级水库群防洪库容互用性初探[J].水科学进展,2017,28(3):421- 428.(ZHOU X C,XU Y S,FENG B F.An exploration on the interoperability of the flood control capacities of cascade reservoir groups in the upper reaches of Yangtze River[J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(3):421- 428.(in Chinese))
[3] 张为,高宇,许全喜,等.三峡水库运用后长江中下游造床流量变化及其影响因素[J].水科学进展,2018,29(3):331-338.(ZHANG W,GAO Y,XU Q X,et al.Changes in dominant discharge and their influential factors in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River after the Three Gorges Dam impoundment[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(3):331-338.(in Chinese))
[4] 丁晶,何清燕,覃光华,等.论水库工程之管运洪水[J].水科学进展,2016,27(1):107-115.(DING J,HE Q Y,TAN G H,et al.Research on the flood for reservoirs engineering management[J].Advances in Water Science,2016,27(1):107-115.(in Chinese))
[5] 水利部.水利水电工程设计洪水计算规范:SL44—2006[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2006.(Ministry of Water Resources.Design flood calculation Regulating for Water resources and hydropower engineering:SL44—2006[S].Beijing:Hydropower and Electrical Press,2006.(in Chinese))
[6] 郭生练,熊丰,尹家波,等.水库运用期设计洪水理论和方法[J].水资源研究,2018,7(4):327-339.(GUO S L,XIONG F,YIN J B,et al.Theory and method of design flood inreservoir operation period[J].Journal of Water Resources Research,2018,7(4):327-339.(in Chinese))
[7] 谭维炎,黄守信.水库下游城市防洪风险的估算[J].水利学报,1983(7):37- 40.(TAN W Y,HUANG S X.Flood risk estimation for City at reservoir downstream[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,1983(7):37- 40.(in Chinese))
[8] 郭生练,闫宝伟,肖义,等.Copula 函数在多变量水文分析计算中的应用及研究进展[J].水文,2008,28(3):1-7.(GUO S L,YAN B W,XIAO Y,et al.Application of Copula function in multivariate hydrological analysis and estimation[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2008,28(3):1-7.(in Chinese))
[9] 闫宝伟,郭生练,郭靖,等.基于Copula函数的设计洪水地区组成研究[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(6):60- 65.(YAN B W,GUO S L,GUO J,et al.Regional design flood composition based on Copula function[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2010,29(6):60- 65.(in Chinese))
[10] 刘章君,郭生练,李天元,等.梯级水库设计洪水最可能地区组成法计算通式[J].水科学进展,2014,25(4):575-584.(LIU Z J,GUO S L,LI T Y,et al.General formula derivation of most likely regional composition method for design flood estimation of cascade reservoirs system[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(4):575-584.(in Chinese))
[11] NIKOLOULOPOULOS A K,JOE H,LI H.Extreme value properties of multivariate t-Copulas[J].Extremes,2009,12(2):129-148.
[12] WANG Z R,CHEN X H,JIN Y B,et al.Estimating risk of foreign exchange portfolio:using VaR and CVaR based on GARCH-EVT-copula model[J].Physica A Statistical Mechanics & Its Applications,2010,389(21):4918- 4928.
[13] SERINALDI F,BONACCORSO B,CANCELLIERE A,et al.Probabilistic characterization of drought properties through copulas[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,Parts A/B/C,2009,34(10/11/12):596- 605.