中国金融市场发展对地方政府债务适度规模的影响研究——基于省级面板数据门槛模型的实证检验
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摘要
本文基于地方政府债务与金融市场间的风险联动性,使用中国30个省份2007—2017年数据采用面板分析的方法来探讨地方政府债务和金融市场间的相互作用关系。并在考虑金融发展水平对地方政府债务规模影响的基础上,构建了以金融发展水平和地方政府债务规模的门槛面板模型。实证结果显示,首先,在控制其他经济变量的情况下,地区金融发展水平和地方政府债务规模间呈正向变化关系,即地方政府金融发展水平越高,对政府债务的承受能力就越大。地方政府的治理能力和地方政府债务规模间存在正相关关系,地方政府的治理水平越高,政府的信用水平也越高,可获得的债务融资规模也越大。其次,在其他经济条件不变的前提下,地方政府债务规模和地区GDP水平及财政平衡变量间存在负相关关系,即经济发展水平越高、财政越平衡的地区,资金越充足,需借贷的债务规模也越小。另外,金融发展水平对地方政府债务规模存在"门槛效应",且在不同区间对政府债务风险起不同作用。金融发展水平越高的地区,地方政府债务规模门槛值也较高。金融发展水平中等的地区,地方政府债务规模门槛值相对较低。而一旦地方政府规模超过最高门槛值,地方政府较难通过金融市场来缓解债务压力。最后,基于中国地方政府债务发展现实和经济发展现状,提出防范和监管地方政府债务风险的相关建议。
Based on the risk linkage between local government debt and financial markets,this paper uses panel analysis methods from 30 provinces in China to explore the interaction between local government debt and financial markets.On the basis of considering the impact of financial development level on the scale of local government debt,the threshold panel model of financial development level and local government debt scale is constructed.The empirical results show that,first of all,under the control of other economic variables,the regional financial development level and the local government debt scale have a positive relationship,that is,the higher the level of local government financial development,the greater the ability to withstand government debt.There is a positive correlation between the governance capacity of local governments and the scale of local government debt.The higher the level of governance of local governments,the higher the level of government credit,and the greater the scale of debt financing available.Second,under the premise that other economic conditions remain unchanged,there is a negative correlation between the scale of local government debt and the regional GDP level and the fiscal balance variable.That is,the higher the level of economic development and the more balanced the fiscal position,the more sufficient the funds,the smaller the debt required to borrow.In addition,the level of financial development has a ‘threshold effect' on the scale of local government debt,and it plays a different role in government debt risk in different areas.In areas with higher levels of financial development,the threshold for local government debt is also higher.In areas with moderate levels of financial development,the threshold for local government debt is relatively low.Once the local government exceeds the maximum threshold value,it is difficult for local governments to ease the debt pressure through the financial market.Finally,based on the reality of China's local government debt development and the status quo of economic development,it puts forward relevant suggestions for preventing and supervising local government debt risks.
Based on the risk linkage between local government debt and financial markets,this paper uses panel analysis methods from 30 provinces in China to explore the interaction between local government debt and financial markets.On the basis of considering the impact of financial development level on the scale of local government debt,the threshold panel model of financial development level and local government debt scale is constructed.The empirical results show that,first of all,under the control of other economic variables,the regional financial development level and the local government debt scale have a positive relationship,that is,the higher the level of local government financial development,the greater the ability to withstand government debt.There is a positive correlation between the governance capacity of local governments and the scale of local government debt.The higher the level of governance of local governments,the higher the level of government credit,and the greater the scale of debt financing available.Second,under the premise that other economic conditions remain unchanged,there is a negative correlation between the scale of local government debt and the regional GDP level and the fiscal balance variable.That is,the higher the level of economic development and the more balanced the fiscal position,the more sufficient the funds,the smaller the debt required to borrow.In addition,the level of financial development has a ‘threshold effect' on the scale of local government debt,and it plays a different role in government debt risk in different areas.In areas with higher levels of financial development,the threshold for local government debt is also higher.In areas with moderate levels of financial development,the threshold for local government debt is relatively low.Once the local government exceeds the maximum threshold value,it is difficult for local governments to ease the debt pressure through the financial market.Finally,based on the reality of China's local government debt development and the status quo of economic development,it puts forward relevant suggestions for preventing and supervising local government debt risks.
引文
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(13)朱小黄、孙伟、王丹、陈洁莹:《中国金融系统性风险指数、拐点及控制研究》,《南方金融》2018年第11期。
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(31)Wassmer,W.and Fisher,R.,Debt burdens of California’s state and local governments.California Journal Of Politics And Policy,Vol.4,No.2,2012.
②范小云、郭步超:《政府债务适度规模与增长模式转型》,《南开学报》2014年第1期。
③伏润民、王卫昆、缪小林:《我国地方政府债务风险与可持续性规模探讨》,《财贸经济》2008年第10期。
④顾建光:《地方政府债务与风险防范对策研究》,《经济体制改革》2006年第1期。
⑤何代欣、叶子荣:《国债规模的微观解释述评》,《财经科学》2009年第7期。
⑥洪源、张玉灶、王群群:《财政压力、转移支付与地方政府债务风险——基于央地财政关系的视角》,《中国软科学》2018年第9期。
⑦黄捷、王虹:《地方政府债务风险与财政支出效率》,《财会月刊》2016年第2期。
⑧刘锡良、李秋婵:《金融发展水平对地方政府债务适度规模的影响研究》,《经济问题》2015年第5期。
⑨刘煜辉:《利用中央政府信用纾解地方债务困境》,《中国金融》2011年第22期。
⑩余应敏、杨野、陈文川:《财政分权、审计监督与地方政府债务风险——基于2008—2013年中国省级面板数据的实证检验》,《财政研究》2018年第7期。
(11)张春霖:《如何评估我国政府债务的可持续性?》,《经济研究》2000年第2期。
(12)张英杰、赵继志、辛洪波:《我国地方政府适度债务规模与偏离度问题研究》,《经济纵横》2014年第8期。
(13)朱小黄、孙伟、王丹、陈洁莹:《中国金融系统性风险指数、拐点及控制研究》,《南方金融》2018年第11期。
(14)Afonso,A.and Alves,J.,The role of government debt and economic growth.Lisbon School Of Economics And Management,Department Of Economics,Universidade de Lisboa,Working Paper,No.16,2014.
(15)Armen,A.,Uncertainty,evolution and economic theory.Journal Of Political Economy,Vol.153,No.58,1950.
(16)Caner,M.,Grennes,T.and Koehler-Gerb,F.,Finding the tipping point:When sovereign debt turns bad.World Bank Conference On Debt Management,No.3,2010.
(17)Checherita-Westphal,C.and Rother,P.,The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth:An empirical investigation for the Euro Area.European Economic Review,Vol.56,No.7,2012.
(18)Chechetti,S.,Mohanty,M.and Zampolli,F.,The real effect of debt.BIS Working Papers,No.352,2011.
(19)Coccia,M.,Driving forces of technological change:The relation between population growth and technological innovation.Technological Forecasting And Social Change,Vol.82,No.C,2014.
(20)Demsetz,H.,Toward a theory of property rights.American Economics Review,Vol.57,No.2,1967.
(21)Elhorst,J.,Specification and estimation of spatial panel data models.International Regional Science Review,Vol.26,No.3,2003.
(22)Hansen,B.,Threshold effect in non-dynamic panels:Estimation,testing,and inference.Journal Of Econometrics,Vol.93,No.2,1999.
(23)Hauner,D.,Public debt and financial development.Journal Of Development Economics,Vol.88,No.1,2009.
(24)Hunter,D.,A fiscal price tag for international reserves.International Finance,Vol.9,No.2,2006.
(25)Ismihan,M.and ?zkan,F.,Public debt and financial development:A theoretical exploration.Economic Letters,Vol.115,No.3,2011.
(26)Kumar,M.and Woo,J.,Public debt and growth.Economica,Vol.82,No.328,2015.
(27)Pan,H.and Wang,C.,Financial development and economic growth:A new investigation.Journal Of Economic Development,Vol.38,No.1,2013.
(28)Polaekova,H.,Contingent government liabilities:A hidden risk for fiscal stability.World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,No.1989,1998.
(29)Rajan,R.and Zingales,L.,Financial dependence and growth.NBER Working Paper,No.5758,1996.
(30)Reinhart,C.and Rogoff,K.,From financial crash to debt crisis.NBER Working Paper,No.15795,2010.
(31)Wassmer,W.and Fisher,R.,Debt burdens of California’s state and local governments.California Journal Of Politics And Policy,Vol.4,No.2,2012.