全球油气资源分布与勘探发现趋势
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摘要
通过分析全球油气资源分布和勘探发现特征,预测了全球油气勘探发现趋势,总结了重点增储领域。认为全球油气资源供给充分,但分布不均,低成本油气储量发现减少,部分资源国储量基础堪忧。全球常规油气勘探热点主要位于海域,且正从南大西洋两岸中段被动陆缘盆地向南段和北段被动陆缘盆地转移。非常规领域成为全球储量增长的重要组成部分,页岩油气成为全球的勘探热点。保守的预测,全球石油勘探发现处于第二个储量增长高峰期的上升阶段,预计将在2025-2030年前后达到第二个储量增长高峰,5年的峰值发现储量为1 620亿桶。大西洋两岸、中东、中亚-俄罗斯地区是常规油气重要增储地区,俄罗斯北极和美国北极将成为油气储量增长的重要一极,页岩油气以外,稠油可能获得大的突破。
By analyzing the characteristics of global oil and gas resources distribution and exploration discovery, this paper predicts the trend of global oil and gas exploration, and sums up the key areas with increasing reserves. It is considered that the global oil and gas supply is abundant, but the distribution is uneven. The low cost oil and gas discovery reduced. The global hot spot of conventional oil and gas exploration is mainly located in the sea area, and the global exploration hotspot is transferring from the middle piece passive continental margin basin to the south and northern part of the South Atlantic. The unconventional oil and gas has become an important part of the global reserve growth, and the shale oil and gas in America has become a global exploration hotspot. Conservative forecasts show that global oil discovery is at the height of the second reserve growth period and is expected to reach a second peak of reserves growth around 2025-2030, with a 5-year peak finding reserves of 162 Bbo. On both sides of the Atlantic, the Middle East, Central Asia-Russia are an important reservoirs of conventional oil and gas accumulation. The Russian Arctic and the United States Arctic will become an important pole of oil and gas reserves growth. Other than shale oil and gas, heavy oil may be a major breakthrough.
By analyzing the characteristics of global oil and gas resources distribution and exploration discovery, this paper predicts the trend of global oil and gas exploration, and sums up the key areas with increasing reserves. It is considered that the global oil and gas supply is abundant, but the distribution is uneven. The low cost oil and gas discovery reduced. The global hot spot of conventional oil and gas exploration is mainly located in the sea area, and the global exploration hotspot is transferring from the middle piece passive continental margin basin to the south and northern part of the South Atlantic. The unconventional oil and gas has become an important part of the global reserve growth, and the shale oil and gas in America has become a global exploration hotspot. Conservative forecasts show that global oil discovery is at the height of the second reserve growth period and is expected to reach a second peak of reserves growth around 2025-2030, with a 5-year peak finding reserves of 162 Bbo. On both sides of the Atlantic, the Middle East, Central Asia-Russia are an important reservoirs of conventional oil and gas accumulation. The Russian Arctic and the United States Arctic will become an important pole of oil and gas reserves growth. Other than shale oil and gas, heavy oil may be a major breakthrough.
引文
[1]IHS Energy.Fields General[DB/OL].http://edin.ihsenergy.com.
[2]BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2017[EB/OL].https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energyeconomics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html.
[3]EIA.Technically recoverable shale oil and shale gas resources[EB/OL].(2015-09-24)[2016-04-07].https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/Oman_2014.pdf.
[4]王红军,马锋,童晓光.全球非常规油气资源评价[J].石油勘探与开发,2016,43(6):850-862
[2]BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2017[EB/OL].https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energyeconomics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html.
[3]EIA.Technically recoverable shale oil and shale gas resources[EB/OL].(2015-09-24)[2016-04-07].https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/Oman_2014.pdf.
[4]王红军,马锋,童晓光.全球非常规油气资源评价[J].石油勘探与开发,2016,43(6):850-862