气候变化及人类活动对长江入海径流的影响分析
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摘要
根据近20 a长江流域的降水量、地表水资源总量、入海径流量以及工农业和生活用水量、净耗水量等数据,重点分析了长江流域人类活动和气候变化对长江入海径流量的影响。结果表明:降水量是长江入海径流量的关键控制因素;流域内生活用水、工农业用水等人类活动总用水量虽然呈增加趋势,但用水过程中净耗水量基本保持不变,因此用水量的增加对长江入海径流量没有影响;水利工程中水库蓄水多为调节径流的时域分布,对最终的入海年径流量并无明显的正负效应;但是,跨流域调水活动会在一定程度上减少长江入海径流量,而且这一影响会随着未来调水量的增大而增大。
Based on the data of precipitation,total surface water resources,runoff into the sea as well as domestic,industrial and agricultural water consumption in the Yangtze River Basin in recent 20 years,this paper analyzes and discusses the impacts of climate change and human activities on the runoff variation of the Yangtze River into the sea.The results show that the precipitation is the key controlling factor to the runoff of the Yangtze River into the sea.Although the total water consumption for people's livelihood,? industry and agriculture in the basin has been increasing,the annual net water consumption remains unchanged.So the water consumption increase does not impact the runoff into the sea.The reservoir impoundment changes the temporal and spatial variation of water resources but has no obvious positive or negative effect on the final runoff into the sea.However,the trans-basin water diversion in the basin will change the runoff into the sea to some extent whose impact will increase with the increase of diversion water in the future.
Based on the data of precipitation,total surface water resources,runoff into the sea as well as domestic,industrial and agricultural water consumption in the Yangtze River Basin in recent 20 years,this paper analyzes and discusses the impacts of climate change and human activities on the runoff variation of the Yangtze River into the sea.The results show that the precipitation is the key controlling factor to the runoff of the Yangtze River into the sea.Although the total water consumption for people's livelihood,? industry and agriculture in the basin has been increasing,the annual net water consumption remains unchanged.So the water consumption increase does not impact the runoff into the sea.The reservoir impoundment changes the temporal and spatial variation of water resources but has no obvious positive or negative effect on the final runoff into the sea.However,the trans-basin water diversion in the basin will change the runoff into the sea to some extent whose impact will increase with the increase of diversion water in the future.
引文
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[2]V9r9smarty C J,Meybeck M,Fekete B,et al.Anthropogenic sediment retention:major global impact from registered river impoundments[J].Global&Planetary Change,2003,39(1-2):169-190.
[3]Stanley D J,Warne A G.Nile delta:recent geological evolution and human impact[J].Science,1993,260(5108):628-34.
[4]Kowalewski M,Avila Serrano G E,Flessa K W,et al.Dead delta's former productivity:Two trillion shells at the mouth of the Colorado River[J].Geology,2000,28(12):1059-1062.
[5]Carriquiry J D,Sánchez A,Camacho-Ibar V F.Sedimentation in the northern Gulf of California after cessation of the Colorado River discharge[J].Sedimentary Geology,2001,144(1–2):37-62.
[6]Milliman J D.Blessed dams or damned dams[J].Nature,1997,386(6623):325-327.
[7]Wang H,Yang Z,Saito Y,et al.Interannual and seasonal variation of the Huanghe(Yellow River)water discharge over the past 50years:Connections to impacts from ENSO events and dams[J].Global&Planetary Change,2006,50(3-4):212-225.
[8]许炯心,孙季.近50年来降水变化和人类活动对黄河入海径流通量的影响[J].水科学进展,2003,14(6):690-695.
[9]刘昌明,张学成.黄河干流实际来水量不断减少的成因分析[J].地理学报,2004,59(3):323-330.
[10]赵纯厚,朱振宏,周端庄.世界江河与大坝[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2000.
[11]Yang S L,Gao A,Helenmary M,et al.Trends in annual discharge from the Yangtze River to the sea(1865–2004)[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2005,50(5):836.
[12]邹振华,李琼芳,夏自强,等.人类活动对长江径流量特性的影响[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2007,35(6):622-626.
[13]雷静.人类活动影响下长江流域水资源演变趋势及对策[J].人民长江,2014,45(7):7-10.
[14]张晓娅.近60年气候变化和人类活动对长江径流量影响的研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2014.
[15]田清.近60年来气候变化和人类活动对黄河、长江、珠江水沙通量影响的研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2016.
[16]Yang S L,Liu Z,Dai S B,et al.Temporal variations in water resources in the Yangtze River(Changjiang)over the Industrial Period based on reconstruction of missing monthly discharges[J].Water Resources Research,2010,46(10).
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[18]方娟娟,李义天,孙昭华,等.长江大通站径流量变化特征分析[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(5):9-12.
[19]王栋,朱元甡.最大熵原理在水文水资源科学中的应用[J].水科学进展,2001,12(3):424-430.
[20]徐义萍,张军红.基于方差线谱的水文时间序列周期分析[J].吉林水利,2014(7):6-8.
[21]余雯,穆方方,曹恒亮.长江大通站水沙年际变化分析[J].上海水务,2015(1):45-47.
[22]Gardner L R.Assessing the effect of climate change on mean annual runoff[J].Journal of Hydrology,2009,379(3-4):351-359.
[23]Zhou L T,Huang R H.Interdecadal variability of summer rainfall in Northwest China and its possible causes[J].International Journal of Climatology,2010,30(4):549–557.
[24]Trenberth K E,Fasullo J T,Mackaro J.Atmospheric Moisture Transports from Ocean to Land and Global Energy Flows in Reanalyses[J].Journal of Climate,2011,24(18):4907-4924.
[25]Gerten D,Rost S,Von Bloh W,et al.Causes of change in 20th century global river discharge[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35(20).
[26]Lu X X.Vulnerability of water discharge of large Chinese rivers to environmental changes:an overview[J].Regional Environmental Change,2004,4(4):182-191.
[27]Shi C,Zhou Y,Fan X,et al.A study on the annual runoff change and its relationship with water and soil conservation practices and climate change in the middle Yellow River basin[J].Catena,2013,100(2):31-41.
[28]张晓娅,杨世伦.流域气候变化和人类活动对长江径流量影响的辨识(1956~2011)[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(12):1729-1739.
[29]王保栋,孙霞.三峡大坝会减小东海的上升流和生产力吗?——与陈镇东先生商榷[J].海洋科学进展,2007,25(3):362-365.
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