中国迎来页岩油气革命了吗?
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摘要
世界能源消费量随着经济的发展持续增长,但油气在世界一次能源消费中的主体地位将长期保持稳定。页岩油气在全球油气供应中的占比在不断增大,这主要得益于美国页岩革命的成功。页岩气开发使美国成为天然气净出口国,而页岩油使美国的石油对外依存度大幅下降。美国页岩革命带动了美国经济的发展,同时也对世界能源格局产生了深远的影响。在中国政府的大力推动下,通过国家石油公司的积极实践,中国页岩气在短期内快速实现了重大突破,中国成为继美国和加拿大之后第三个具有进行商业化开发页岩气能力的国家。虽然中国的页岩气勘探开发取得了较大的进展,但仍面临着诸多挑战,而这些难题的解决需要理论、技术和机制等方面的创新。中国具有巨大的页岩油资源潜力,但页岩油勘探开发困难重重,在陆相页岩油富集机理、分布规律、甜点预测与低成本开发等方面都需要开展深入的研究。总体来看,中国正迎来页岩气革命,而页岩油革命还未到来。
With the development of economy,the world energy consumption continues to grow,and the dominant position of oil and gas in the world primary energy consumption will remain stable for a long period. The proportion of shale oil and gas in the global oil and gas supply is increasing continuously,which is mainly due to the success of the American shale revolution. The successful development of shale gas has turned the United States into a net exporter of natural gas,while shale oil has greatly reduced its dependence on foreign oil to a new low of nearly 10%. The shale revolution in the United States not only has been boosting the economy development of the United States,but also has a far-reaching impact on the world's energy pattern. Under the vigorous promotion of the Chinese government and through the active practice of the NOCs,China's shale gas has achieved a major breakthrough in a short period of time,becoming the third country across the world with commercial development capability after the United States and Canada. Although China has made great progress in shale gas exploration and development,it still faces many challenges,the solution to which requires innovation in theories,technologies and business models. China has huge potential of shale oil resources,but the exploration and development of the shale oil are even more challenging. It is necessary to carry out in-depth research on the enrichment mechanism,distribution pattern,sweet-spot prediction and low-cost development technologies of continental shale oil. Overall,China is embracing the shale gas revolution,while the shale oil revolution has not yet arrived.
With the development of economy,the world energy consumption continues to grow,and the dominant position of oil and gas in the world primary energy consumption will remain stable for a long period. The proportion of shale oil and gas in the global oil and gas supply is increasing continuously,which is mainly due to the success of the American shale revolution. The successful development of shale gas has turned the United States into a net exporter of natural gas,while shale oil has greatly reduced its dependence on foreign oil to a new low of nearly 10%. The shale revolution in the United States not only has been boosting the economy development of the United States,but also has a far-reaching impact on the world's energy pattern. Under the vigorous promotion of the Chinese government and through the active practice of the NOCs,China's shale gas has achieved a major breakthrough in a short period of time,becoming the third country across the world with commercial development capability after the United States and Canada. Although China has made great progress in shale gas exploration and development,it still faces many challenges,the solution to which requires innovation in theories,technologies and business models. China has huge potential of shale oil resources,but the exploration and development of the shale oil are even more challenging. It is necessary to carry out in-depth research on the enrichment mechanism,distribution pattern,sweet-spot prediction and low-cost development technologies of continental shale oil. Overall,China is embracing the shale gas revolution,while the shale oil revolution has not yet arrived.
引文
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[20]金之钧,胡宗全,高波,等.川东南地区五峰组-龙马溪组页岩气富集与高产控制因素[J].地学前缘,2016,23(1):1-10.Jin Zhijun,Hu Zongquan,Gao Bo,et al. Controlling factors on the enrichement and high productivity of shale gas in the Wufeng-Longmaxi Formations,southeastern Sichuan Basin[J]. Earth Science Frontiers,2016,23(1):1-10.
[21]赵文智,李建忠,杨涛,等.中国南方海相页岩气成藏差异性比较与意义[J].石油勘探与开发,2016,43(4):499-510.Zhao Wenzhi,Li Jianzhong,Yang Tao,et al. Geological difference and its significance of marine shale gases in South China[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development,2016,43(4):499-510.
[22]董冬,杨申镳,项希勇,等.济阳坳陷的泥质岩类油气藏[J].石油勘探与开发,1993,20(6):15-22.Dong Dong,Yang Shenbiao,Xiang Xiyong,et al. Muddy hydrocarbon reservoirs in Jiyang Depression[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development,1993,20(6):15-22.
[23]孙焕泉.济阳坳陷页岩油勘探实践与认识[J].中国石油勘探,2017,22(4):1-14.Sun Huanquan. Exploration practice and cognitions of shale oil in Jiyang Depression[J]. China Petroleum Exploration,2017,22(4):1-14.
[24]付茜.中国页岩油勘探开发现状、挑战及前景[J].石油钻采工艺,2015,37(3):58-62.Fu Qian. The status,challenge and prospect of shale oil exploration and development in China[J]. Oil Drilling&Production Technology,2015,37(3):58-62.
[25]王勇,宋国奇,刘惠民,等.济阳坳陷页岩油富集主控因素[J].油气地质与采收率,2015,22(4):20-25.Wang Yong,Song Guoqi,Liu Huimin,et al. Main control factors of enrichment characteristics of shale oil in Jiyang Depression[J]. Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency,2015,22(4):20-25.
[26]王芙蓉,何生,郑有恒,等.江汉盆地潜江凹陷潜江组盐间页岩油储层矿物组成与脆性特征研究[J].石油实验地质,2016,38(2):211-218.Wang Furong,He Sheng,Zheng Youheng,et al. Mineral composition and brittleness characteristics of the inter-salt shale oil reservoirs in the Qianjiang Formation,Qianjiang Sag[J]. Petroleum Geology&Experiment,2016,38(2):211-218.
[27] Liu H,Zhang S,Song G,et al. A discussion on the origin of shale reservoir inter-Laminar fractures in the Shahejie Formation of Paleogene,Dongying Depression[J]. Journal of Earth Science,2017,28(6):1064-1077.
[28]邹才能,朱如凯,白斌,等.致密油与页岩油内涵、特征、潜力及挑战[J].矿物岩石地球化学通报,2015,34(1):3-16.Zou Caineng,Zhu Rukai,Bai Bin,et al. Significance,geologic characteristics,resource potential and future challenges of tight oil and shale oil[J]. Bulletin of Mineralogy,Petrology and Geochemistry,2015,34(1):3-16.
[29]盛湘,陈祥,章新文,等.中国陆相页岩油开发前景与挑战[J].石油实验地质,377(3):267-271.Sheng Xiang,Chen Xiang,Zhang Xinwen,et al. Prospects and challenges of continental shale oil development in China[J]. Petroleum Geology&Experiment,377(3):267-271.
[2] EIA. International energy outlook 2019[EB/OL].(2019-01).https://www. eia. gov/outlooks/ieo.
[3] World Coal Association. Global primary energy demand:IEA WEO2017 insights[EB/OL].(2018-01). https://www. worldcoal. org/global-primary-energy-demand.
[4] BP. BP energy outlook[EB/OL].(2018). https://www. bp. com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2018. pdf.
[5] Exxon Mobil. 2018 outlook for energy:A view to 2040[EB/OL].(2018-03). http://corporate. exxonmobil. com/en/energy/energyoutlook/a-view-to-2040.
[6] OPEC. World oil outlook 2017[EB/OL].(2017). https://woo.opec. org.
[7] US Energy Information Administration. Short-term energy outlook[EB/OL].(2018-04). https://www. eia. gov/outlooks/steo.
[8] EIA. Natural gas weekly update[EB/OL].(2019-02). https://www. eia. gov/naturalgas/weekly.
[9] EIA. Weekly petroleum status report[EB/OL].(2019-02). https://www. eia. gov/petroleum/supply/weekly.
[10] BP. Statistical review of world energy[EB/OL].(2007-06). https://www. bp. com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2007-full-report. pdf.
[11] USGS. Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources in conventional and continuous petroleum systems in the Upper Cretaceous Eagle Ford Group,U. S. Gulf Coast Region[R]. USGS Fact Sheet2012-3003,2012.
[12] USGS. Assessment of undiscovered oil resources in the Bakken and Three Forks Formations,Williston Basin Province,Montana,North Dakota,and South Dakota[R]. USGS Fact Sheet 2013-3013,2013.
[13] Petak K,Vidas H,Manik J,et al. U. S. oil and gas infrastructure investment through 2035[R]. American Petroleum Institute,2017.
[14]陈建渝,唐大卿,杨楚鹏.非常规含气系统的研究和勘探进展[J].地质科技情报,2003,22(4):55-59.Chen Jianyu,Tan Daqing,Yang Chupeng. Advances in the research and exploration of unconventional petroleum systems[J]. Geological Science and Technology Information,2003,22(4):55-59.
[15]张金川,薛会,张德明,等.页岩气及其成藏机理[J].现代地质,2003,17(4):466.Zhang Jinchuan,Xue Hui,Zhang Mingde,et al. Shale gas and reservoiring mechanism[J]. Modern Geology,2003,17(4):466.
[16]张金川,金之钧,袁明生,等.页岩气成藏机理和分布[J].天然气工业,2004,24(7):15-18.Zhang Jinchuan,Jin Zhijun,Yuan Mingsheng,et al. Reservoiring mechanism of shale gas and its distribution[J]. Natural Gas Industry,2004,24(7):15-18.
[17]张金川,聂海宽,徐波,等.四川盆地页岩气成藏地质条件[J].天然气工业,2008,28(2):151-156.Zhang Jinchuan,Nie Haikuan,Xu Bo,et al. Geological condition of shale gas accumulation in Sichuan Basin[J]. Natural Gas Industry,2008,28(2):151-156.
[18]张金川,徐波,聂海宽,等.中国页岩气资源勘探潜力[J].天然气工业,2008,28(6):136-140.Zhang Jinchuan,Xu Bo,Nie Haikuan,et al. Exploration potential of shale gas resources in China[J]. Natural Gas Industry,2008,28(6):136-140.
[19]邹才能,董大忠,王玉满,等.中国页岩气特征、挑战及前景(一)[J].石油勘探与开发,2015,42(6):689-701.Zou Caineng,Dong Dazhong,Wang Yuman,et al. Shale gas in China:Characteristics,challenges and prospects[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development,2015,42(6):689-701.
[20]金之钧,胡宗全,高波,等.川东南地区五峰组-龙马溪组页岩气富集与高产控制因素[J].地学前缘,2016,23(1):1-10.Jin Zhijun,Hu Zongquan,Gao Bo,et al. Controlling factors on the enrichement and high productivity of shale gas in the Wufeng-Longmaxi Formations,southeastern Sichuan Basin[J]. Earth Science Frontiers,2016,23(1):1-10.
[21]赵文智,李建忠,杨涛,等.中国南方海相页岩气成藏差异性比较与意义[J].石油勘探与开发,2016,43(4):499-510.Zhao Wenzhi,Li Jianzhong,Yang Tao,et al. Geological difference and its significance of marine shale gases in South China[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development,2016,43(4):499-510.
[22]董冬,杨申镳,项希勇,等.济阳坳陷的泥质岩类油气藏[J].石油勘探与开发,1993,20(6):15-22.Dong Dong,Yang Shenbiao,Xiang Xiyong,et al. Muddy hydrocarbon reservoirs in Jiyang Depression[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development,1993,20(6):15-22.
[23]孙焕泉.济阳坳陷页岩油勘探实践与认识[J].中国石油勘探,2017,22(4):1-14.Sun Huanquan. Exploration practice and cognitions of shale oil in Jiyang Depression[J]. China Petroleum Exploration,2017,22(4):1-14.
[24]付茜.中国页岩油勘探开发现状、挑战及前景[J].石油钻采工艺,2015,37(3):58-62.Fu Qian. The status,challenge and prospect of shale oil exploration and development in China[J]. Oil Drilling&Production Technology,2015,37(3):58-62.
[25]王勇,宋国奇,刘惠民,等.济阳坳陷页岩油富集主控因素[J].油气地质与采收率,2015,22(4):20-25.Wang Yong,Song Guoqi,Liu Huimin,et al. Main control factors of enrichment characteristics of shale oil in Jiyang Depression[J]. Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency,2015,22(4):20-25.
[26]王芙蓉,何生,郑有恒,等.江汉盆地潜江凹陷潜江组盐间页岩油储层矿物组成与脆性特征研究[J].石油实验地质,2016,38(2):211-218.Wang Furong,He Sheng,Zheng Youheng,et al. Mineral composition and brittleness characteristics of the inter-salt shale oil reservoirs in the Qianjiang Formation,Qianjiang Sag[J]. Petroleum Geology&Experiment,2016,38(2):211-218.
[27] Liu H,Zhang S,Song G,et al. A discussion on the origin of shale reservoir inter-Laminar fractures in the Shahejie Formation of Paleogene,Dongying Depression[J]. Journal of Earth Science,2017,28(6):1064-1077.
[28]邹才能,朱如凯,白斌,等.致密油与页岩油内涵、特征、潜力及挑战[J].矿物岩石地球化学通报,2015,34(1):3-16.Zou Caineng,Zhu Rukai,Bai Bin,et al. Significance,geologic characteristics,resource potential and future challenges of tight oil and shale oil[J]. Bulletin of Mineralogy,Petrology and Geochemistry,2015,34(1):3-16.
[29]盛湘,陈祥,章新文,等.中国陆相页岩油开发前景与挑战[J].石油实验地质,377(3):267-271.Sheng Xiang,Chen Xiang,Zhang Xinwen,et al. Prospects and challenges of continental shale oil development in China[J]. Petroleum Geology&Experiment,377(3):267-271.