环境规制对中国生猪养殖生产布局与产业转移的影响分析
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摘要
随着畜牧业禁限养环保政策的逐步实施,环境规制成为制约中国生猪养殖的首要问题。基于波特假说的相关理论,利用2004—2015年中国省级生猪养殖面板数据,分析环境规制对生猪产业生产布局的影响,探讨其空间转移的作用机制。结果表明,生猪养殖业与环境规制强度在地域上都存在很强的空间关联性,在空间分布上呈现层次状聚集现象;生猪出栏、存栏和养殖场密度与环境规制强度之间均存在显著的倒N型非线性关系,在环境制约下,生猪养殖呈现先下降,越过第一拐点后上升,到达第二拐点后再下降的发展趋势;上海、江苏、广东等8个省市已经越过倒N型曲线上第二拐点,生猪养殖处于向外转出阶段,河北,湖北、湖南等10个省市即将在短时间内到达第二拐点,生猪产业发展处于饱和缓慢增长阶段,贵州、广西等6个中西部省份生猪养殖处于快速增长阶段。黑龙江、内蒙古等地区现有生猪养殖水平较低,但未来养殖潜力巨大。环境规制的差异使得生猪产业从东南向西部和东北地区转移,在空间布局存在着"南猪北移,东猪西进"的转移趋势。因此,提出各地区应实行差异化的环境规制水平及监管政策,加强环保投入实现规模化经营以应对环境监管的冲击,密切关注生猪供给状况防止猪肉价格大涨等建议。
With the gradual implementation of the livestock restricting and banning environmental policy, environmental regulations have become the primary challenge that affects the hog breeding industry in China. Based on a panel data of Chinese provincial hog breeding from 2004 to 2015, and the relevant theories of the Porter hypothesis, this paper empirically explored the mechanism of environmental regulations on the production distribution and spatial movement of hog industry in China. Results show that the hog breeding industry and environmental regulation intensity have a strong spatial correlation and a hierarchical aggregation on its spatial distribution. In addition, there exists an "inverted N-shape" relationship between the development level of the hog breeding industry and environmental regulations: under the environmental regulations, the development level of the hog breeding industry shows a decliningincreasing-declining pattern. This paper also finds that Shanghai, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other five provinces have crossed the second inflection point on the inverted N-shape curve, where hog farming in the exiting stage has been declined. Other 10 provinces, such as Hebei, Hubei, and Hunan, will reach the second inflection point in a short time, where hog breeding industry is in a slow and saturated growth stage. While hog farming in the six central and western provinces, such as Guizhou and Guangxi, is in a period of rapid growth. The breeding levels of hog in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia are low but with a great potential growth in the future. The difference of environmental regulations makes hog breeding industry movement from the southeast to the west and the northeast with the following trends: "South hog northward, and east hog westward". In summary, this paper also provides the following policy suggestions: to implement different levels of environmental regulations and policies in different regions, to strengthen environmental protection investment to achieve large-scale operations in response to environmental supervision, and to pay close attention to the supply of hogs to prevent pork price from soaring.
With the gradual implementation of the livestock restricting and banning environmental policy, environmental regulations have become the primary challenge that affects the hog breeding industry in China. Based on a panel data of Chinese provincial hog breeding from 2004 to 2015, and the relevant theories of the Porter hypothesis, this paper empirically explored the mechanism of environmental regulations on the production distribution and spatial movement of hog industry in China. Results show that the hog breeding industry and environmental regulation intensity have a strong spatial correlation and a hierarchical aggregation on its spatial distribution. In addition, there exists an "inverted N-shape" relationship between the development level of the hog breeding industry and environmental regulations: under the environmental regulations, the development level of the hog breeding industry shows a decliningincreasing-declining pattern. This paper also finds that Shanghai, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other five provinces have crossed the second inflection point on the inverted N-shape curve, where hog farming in the exiting stage has been declined. Other 10 provinces, such as Hebei, Hubei, and Hunan, will reach the second inflection point in a short time, where hog breeding industry is in a slow and saturated growth stage. While hog farming in the six central and western provinces, such as Guizhou and Guangxi, is in a period of rapid growth. The breeding levels of hog in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia are low but with a great potential growth in the future. The difference of environmental regulations makes hog breeding industry movement from the southeast to the west and the northeast with the following trends: "South hog northward, and east hog westward". In summary, this paper also provides the following policy suggestions: to implement different levels of environmental regulations and policies in different regions, to strengthen environmental protection investment to achieve large-scale operations in response to environmental supervision, and to pay close attention to the supply of hogs to prevent pork price from soaring.
引文
[1]Walter I,Ugelow J.Environmental policies in developing countries[J].Ambio,1979,8(2/3):102-109.
[2]Copeland B R,Taylor M S.North-south trade and the environment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994,109(3):755-787.
[3]Cole M A.Trade,the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental Kuznets curve:Examining the linkages[J].Ecological Economics,2004,48(1):71-81.
[4]D’Agostino L M.How MNEs respond to environmental regulation:Integrating the Porter hypothesis and the pollution haven hypothesis[J].Economia Political,2015,32(2):245-269.
[5]张可云,傅帅雄.环境规制对产业布局的影响——“污染天堂”的研究现状及前景[J].现代经济探讨,2011(2):65-68.Zhang K Y,Fu S X.The impact of environmental regulation on industrial distribution research status and prospects of“Pollution Paradise”[J].Modern Economic Research,2011(2):65-68.
[6]钟茂初,李梦洁,杜威剑.环境规制能否倒逼产业结构调整——基于中国省际面板数据的实证检验[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(8):107-115.Zhong M C,Li M J,Du W J.Can environmental regulation force industrial structure adjustment:An empirical analysis based on provincial panel data[J].China Population,Resources and Environmental,2015,25(8):107-115.
[7]姚从容.产业转移,环境规制与污染集聚:基于污染密集型产业空间变动的分析[J].广东社会科学,2016(5):43-54.Yao C R.Industrial transfer,environmental regulation and pollution agglomeration:An analysis based on the spatial change of pollution-intensive industries[J].Social Sciences in Guangdong,2016(5):43-54.
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[9]Lanoie P,Patry M,Lajeunesse R.Environmental regulation and productivity:Testing the porter hypothesis[J].Journal of Productivity Analysis,2008,30(2):121-128.
[10]杜威剑,李梦洁.环境规制对企业产品创新的非线性影响[J].科学学研究,2016,34(3):462-470.Du W J,Li M J.Nonlinear impact of environmental regulations on product innovation[J].Studies in Science of Science,2016,34(3):462-470.
[11]原毅军,谢荣辉.环境规制与工业绿色生产率增长——对“强波特假说”的再检验[J].中国软科学,2016(7):144-154.Yuan Y J,Xie R H.Environmental regulation and the‘Green’productivity growth of China’s industry—Retesting the“Strong Porter Hypothesis”[J].China Soft Science,2016(7):144-154.
[12]刘传江,赵晓梦.强“波特假说”存在产业异质性吗?——基于产业碳密集程度细分的视角[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(6):1-9.Liu C J,Zhao X M.Does strong Porter Hypothesis have industrial h e t e r o g e n e i t y?—T h e p e r s p e c t i v e f r o m s e g m e n t a t i o n o f industrial carbon intensity[J].China Population,Resources and Environmental,2017,27(6):1-9.
[13]张晖,虞祎.基于环境综合比较优势的中国生猪生产布局调整研究[J].农业技术经济,2012(12):122-127.Zhang H,Yu Y.Study on the distribution and adjustment of China’s livestock production based on the comparative advantage of environment[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2012(12):122-127.
[14]刘晓磊,孙润南,胡科,等.中国生猪生产所需耕地及影响因素分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(7):14-18.Liu X L,Sun R N,Hu K,et al.Land requirement of China’s pig production and the influence factors[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2016,30(7):14-18.
[15]王欢,乔娟.中国生猪生产布局变迁的经济学分析[J].经济地理,2017,37(8):129-136.Wang H,Qiao J.An economic analysis on the changes in the distribution of pig production in China[J].Economic Geography,2017,37(8):129-136.
[16]谭莹.中国猪肉市场总供给波动及影响因素的实证分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2010(3):24-29.Tan Y.An empirical analysis on the volatility of aggregate pork supply and its influencing factors[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2010(3):24-29.
[17]谭莹.我国猪肉供给的驱动因素及补贴政策分析[J].农业经济问题,2011(9):52-57.Tan Y.The analysis on the driving factors and subsidy policy of China’s pork supply[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2011(9):52-57.
[18]谭莹,张伟,邱俊杰.能繁母猪保险政策的养殖户支付意愿分析[J].保险研究,2014(6):11-17.Tan Y,Zhang W,Qiu J J.An empirical study on farmers’willingness to pay for sow insurance[J].Insurance Studies,2014(6):11-17.
[19]谭莹,张俊艳,何勤英.中国生猪生产布局演进历程及区域优化研究[J].黑龙江畜牧兽医,2018(6):24-29.Tan Y,Zhang J Y,He Q Y.Research on the evolution and regional optimization of pig production layout in China[J].Heilongjiang Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine,2018(6):24-29.
[20]廖翼,夏青青,陈文馨,等.我国生猪生产区域布局变动及其影响因素实证研究[J].中国畜牧杂志,2017,53(4):144-149.Liao Y,Xia Q Q,Chen W X,et al.The study on regional distribution and the influencing factors of livestock production in China[J].Chinese Journal of Animal Science,2017,53(4):144-149.
[21]虞祎,张晖,胡浩.环境规制对中国生猪生产布局的影响分析[J].中国农村经济,2011(8):81-88.Yu Y,Zhang H,Hu H.Analysis on the influence of environmental regulation on the livestock production in China[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2011(8):81-88.
[22]虞祎,张晖,胡浩.地方环境规制,地区猪肉流通与污染天堂效应——基于引力模型的实证检验[J].农业技术经济,2011(11):84-90.Yu Y,Zhang H,Hu H.Regional environmental regulation,regional pork circulation and pollution paradise effect based on empirical test of the gravity model[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2011(11):84-90.
[23]王德鑫,郑炎成,李谷成,等.环境规制条件下我国规模化生猪生产效率的测度与分析——兼论生猪养殖的适度规模经营[J].农业现代化研究,2015,36(5):818-825.Wang D X,Zheng Y C,Li G C,et al.Assessment and analysis of scale hog production efficiency in China under the constraint of environmental regulations and the discussion of the moderate scale management of hog production[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2015,36(5):818-825.
[24]张郁,江易华.环境规制政策情境下环境风险感知对养猪户环境行为影响——基于湖北省280户规模养殖户的调查[J].农业技术经济,2016(11):76-86.Zhang Y,Jiang Y H.Impact of environmental risk perception on the environmental behavior of farmers in environmental regulation policy—Based on the survey of 280 scale pig farmers in Hubei Province[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2016(11):76-86.
[25]张郁,刘耀东.养猪户环境风险感知影响因素的实证研究——基于湖北省280个规模养猪户的调研[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(6):168-176.Zhang Y,Liu Y D.Empirical study on the influencing factors of pig farmers’environmental risk perception:Based on the survey of 280 scale pig farmers in Hubei Province[J].China Agricultural University Journal of Social Sciences Edition,2017,22(6):168-176.
[26]Mulatu A,Wossink A.Environmental regulation and location of industrialized agricultural production in Europe[J].Land Economics,2014,90(3):509-537.
[27]Mohr R.Technical change,external economies,and the Porter Hypothesis[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2002,43(1):158-168.
[28]王杰,刘斌.环境规制与企业全要素生产率——基于中国工业企业数据的经验分析[J].中国工业经济,2014(3):44-56Wang J,Liu B.Environmental regulation and enterprises’TFP—an empirical analysis based on China’s industrial enterprises data[J].China Industrial Economics,2014(3):44-56.
[29]Elhorst J P.Spatial Econometrics:From Cross-sectional Data to Spatial Panels[M].New York:Springer,2010:95-117.
[30]Taspinar S,Dogan O,Bera A K.GMM gradient tests for spatial dynamic panel data model[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,2017,65(7):65-88.
[31]Tobler W.A transformational view of cartography[J].The American Cartographer,1979,6(2):101-106.
[32]王雪辉,谷国锋.市场潜能,地理距离与经济增长的溢出效应[J].财经论丛,2016(11):3-10.Wang X H,Gu G F.Market potential,geographical distance and spillover effect of economic growth[J].Collected Essays on Finance and Economics,2016(11):3-10.
[2]Copeland B R,Taylor M S.North-south trade and the environment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994,109(3):755-787.
[3]Cole M A.Trade,the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental Kuznets curve:Examining the linkages[J].Ecological Economics,2004,48(1):71-81.
[4]D’Agostino L M.How MNEs respond to environmental regulation:Integrating the Porter hypothesis and the pollution haven hypothesis[J].Economia Political,2015,32(2):245-269.
[5]张可云,傅帅雄.环境规制对产业布局的影响——“污染天堂”的研究现状及前景[J].现代经济探讨,2011(2):65-68.Zhang K Y,Fu S X.The impact of environmental regulation on industrial distribution research status and prospects of“Pollution Paradise”[J].Modern Economic Research,2011(2):65-68.
[6]钟茂初,李梦洁,杜威剑.环境规制能否倒逼产业结构调整——基于中国省际面板数据的实证检验[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(8):107-115.Zhong M C,Li M J,Du W J.Can environmental regulation force industrial structure adjustment:An empirical analysis based on provincial panel data[J].China Population,Resources and Environmental,2015,25(8):107-115.
[7]姚从容.产业转移,环境规制与污染集聚:基于污染密集型产业空间变动的分析[J].广东社会科学,2016(5):43-54.Yao C R.Industrial transfer,environmental regulation and pollution agglomeration:An analysis based on the spatial change of pollution-intensive industries[J].Social Sciences in Guangdong,2016(5):43-54.
[8]Porter M E,Linde C V.Toward a new conception of the environment competitiveness relationship[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1995,9(4):97-118.
[9]Lanoie P,Patry M,Lajeunesse R.Environmental regulation and productivity:Testing the porter hypothesis[J].Journal of Productivity Analysis,2008,30(2):121-128.
[10]杜威剑,李梦洁.环境规制对企业产品创新的非线性影响[J].科学学研究,2016,34(3):462-470.Du W J,Li M J.Nonlinear impact of environmental regulations on product innovation[J].Studies in Science of Science,2016,34(3):462-470.
[11]原毅军,谢荣辉.环境规制与工业绿色生产率增长——对“强波特假说”的再检验[J].中国软科学,2016(7):144-154.Yuan Y J,Xie R H.Environmental regulation and the‘Green’productivity growth of China’s industry—Retesting the“Strong Porter Hypothesis”[J].China Soft Science,2016(7):144-154.
[12]刘传江,赵晓梦.强“波特假说”存在产业异质性吗?——基于产业碳密集程度细分的视角[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(6):1-9.Liu C J,Zhao X M.Does strong Porter Hypothesis have industrial h e t e r o g e n e i t y?—T h e p e r s p e c t i v e f r o m s e g m e n t a t i o n o f industrial carbon intensity[J].China Population,Resources and Environmental,2017,27(6):1-9.
[13]张晖,虞祎.基于环境综合比较优势的中国生猪生产布局调整研究[J].农业技术经济,2012(12):122-127.Zhang H,Yu Y.Study on the distribution and adjustment of China’s livestock production based on the comparative advantage of environment[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2012(12):122-127.
[14]刘晓磊,孙润南,胡科,等.中国生猪生产所需耕地及影响因素分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(7):14-18.Liu X L,Sun R N,Hu K,et al.Land requirement of China’s pig production and the influence factors[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2016,30(7):14-18.
[15]王欢,乔娟.中国生猪生产布局变迁的经济学分析[J].经济地理,2017,37(8):129-136.Wang H,Qiao J.An economic analysis on the changes in the distribution of pig production in China[J].Economic Geography,2017,37(8):129-136.
[16]谭莹.中国猪肉市场总供给波动及影响因素的实证分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2010(3):24-29.Tan Y.An empirical analysis on the volatility of aggregate pork supply and its influencing factors[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2010(3):24-29.
[17]谭莹.我国猪肉供给的驱动因素及补贴政策分析[J].农业经济问题,2011(9):52-57.Tan Y.The analysis on the driving factors and subsidy policy of China’s pork supply[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2011(9):52-57.
[18]谭莹,张伟,邱俊杰.能繁母猪保险政策的养殖户支付意愿分析[J].保险研究,2014(6):11-17.Tan Y,Zhang W,Qiu J J.An empirical study on farmers’willingness to pay for sow insurance[J].Insurance Studies,2014(6):11-17.
[19]谭莹,张俊艳,何勤英.中国生猪生产布局演进历程及区域优化研究[J].黑龙江畜牧兽医,2018(6):24-29.Tan Y,Zhang J Y,He Q Y.Research on the evolution and regional optimization of pig production layout in China[J].Heilongjiang Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine,2018(6):24-29.
[20]廖翼,夏青青,陈文馨,等.我国生猪生产区域布局变动及其影响因素实证研究[J].中国畜牧杂志,2017,53(4):144-149.Liao Y,Xia Q Q,Chen W X,et al.The study on regional distribution and the influencing factors of livestock production in China[J].Chinese Journal of Animal Science,2017,53(4):144-149.
[21]虞祎,张晖,胡浩.环境规制对中国生猪生产布局的影响分析[J].中国农村经济,2011(8):81-88.Yu Y,Zhang H,Hu H.Analysis on the influence of environmental regulation on the livestock production in China[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2011(8):81-88.
[22]虞祎,张晖,胡浩.地方环境规制,地区猪肉流通与污染天堂效应——基于引力模型的实证检验[J].农业技术经济,2011(11):84-90.Yu Y,Zhang H,Hu H.Regional environmental regulation,regional pork circulation and pollution paradise effect based on empirical test of the gravity model[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2011(11):84-90.
[23]王德鑫,郑炎成,李谷成,等.环境规制条件下我国规模化生猪生产效率的测度与分析——兼论生猪养殖的适度规模经营[J].农业现代化研究,2015,36(5):818-825.Wang D X,Zheng Y C,Li G C,et al.Assessment and analysis of scale hog production efficiency in China under the constraint of environmental regulations and the discussion of the moderate scale management of hog production[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2015,36(5):818-825.
[24]张郁,江易华.环境规制政策情境下环境风险感知对养猪户环境行为影响——基于湖北省280户规模养殖户的调查[J].农业技术经济,2016(11):76-86.Zhang Y,Jiang Y H.Impact of environmental risk perception on the environmental behavior of farmers in environmental regulation policy—Based on the survey of 280 scale pig farmers in Hubei Province[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2016(11):76-86.
[25]张郁,刘耀东.养猪户环境风险感知影响因素的实证研究——基于湖北省280个规模养猪户的调研[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(6):168-176.Zhang Y,Liu Y D.Empirical study on the influencing factors of pig farmers’environmental risk perception:Based on the survey of 280 scale pig farmers in Hubei Province[J].China Agricultural University Journal of Social Sciences Edition,2017,22(6):168-176.
[26]Mulatu A,Wossink A.Environmental regulation and location of industrialized agricultural production in Europe[J].Land Economics,2014,90(3):509-537.
[27]Mohr R.Technical change,external economies,and the Porter Hypothesis[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2002,43(1):158-168.
[28]王杰,刘斌.环境规制与企业全要素生产率——基于中国工业企业数据的经验分析[J].中国工业经济,2014(3):44-56Wang J,Liu B.Environmental regulation and enterprises’TFP—an empirical analysis based on China’s industrial enterprises data[J].China Industrial Economics,2014(3):44-56.
[29]Elhorst J P.Spatial Econometrics:From Cross-sectional Data to Spatial Panels[M].New York:Springer,2010:95-117.
[30]Taspinar S,Dogan O,Bera A K.GMM gradient tests for spatial dynamic panel data model[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,2017,65(7):65-88.
[31]Tobler W.A transformational view of cartography[J].The American Cartographer,1979,6(2):101-106.
[32]王雪辉,谷国锋.市场潜能,地理距离与经济增长的溢出效应[J].财经论丛,2016(11):3-10.Wang X H,Gu G F.Market potential,geographical distance and spillover effect of economic growth[J].Collected Essays on Finance and Economics,2016(11):3-10.