基于地理加权回归模型的塔里木河流域农业气候资源研究
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摘要
以塔里木河流域农业气候资源为研究对象,通过收集该流域38个县市地区1995-2014年的气象、地理及经济方面的指标数据,运用R软件对其进行因子分析,得出年平均气温对该流域种植业具有明显的影响.然后,建立了地理加权回归模型,对收集的指标数据进行分析,研究该流域农业气候资源空间聚集与差异.结果表明:农业气候资源对塔河流域农业生产存在明显的空间影响.最后,为流域农作物的合理种植给出建议.
Take the agricultural climate resources in the Tarim River Basin as research object,the paper uses R software to analyze the indicators data of meteorological,geography and economic from 38 counties or cities in Tarim River Basin during 1995-2014 by factor analysis,which can gets annual average temperature have obvious effect on the plant industry in the basin.Then the paper establishes a geographical weighted regression model to analyze the indicators data for the research on the spatial aggregation and difference of the agricultural climate resources in the basin.The results show that agricultural climate resources have obvious spatial effect on the agricultural production in the basin.Finally,Given reasonable suggestion for the rational cultivation of crops in the basin.
Take the agricultural climate resources in the Tarim River Basin as research object,the paper uses R software to analyze the indicators data of meteorological,geography and economic from 38 counties or cities in Tarim River Basin during 1995-2014 by factor analysis,which can gets annual average temperature have obvious effect on the plant industry in the basin.Then the paper establishes a geographical weighted regression model to analyze the indicators data for the research on the spatial aggregation and difference of the agricultural climate resources in the basin.The results show that agricultural climate resources have obvious spatial effect on the agricultural production in the basin.Finally,Given reasonable suggestion for the rational cultivation of crops in the basin.
引文
[1]温克刚,李波,孟庆楠.中国气象灾害大典[M].气象出版社.2005,245-270.
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[3]Chen Yaning,Takeuchi Kuniyoshi,Xu Changchun,etal.Re-gional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin,China[J].Hydrological Process-es,2006,20:2207-2216.
[4]Zhao B F,Xu J H,Chen Z S,et al.Air temperature change in the southern Tarim River Basin,China,1964-2011[J].The Scientific World Journal,2013.Doirl O.1155/2013/894851.
[5]王秋香,张春良,胡义成,司鹏.塔里木河流域内气候要素变化的非均衡性及其成因分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,03:257-263.
[6]汤洋,李翠霞.黑龙江省畜牧业发展水平的因子分析模型构建与综合评价研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2013,12:92-99.
[7]Brunsdon C F,Fotheringham A S,Charlton M E.Geographical weighted regression:a method for exploring spatial nonstationarity[J].Geographical Analysis,1996,8:281-298.
[8]Fotheringham A S,Brunsdon C F,Charlton M E.Geographical weighted regression:a natural evolution of the expansion method for spatial data analysis[J].Environment and Planning A,1998,30:1905-1927.
[2]Xu Changchun,Chen Yaning,Li Weihong,et al.Climate change and hydrologic process response in the Tarim River Basin over the past 50 years[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2006,51(Suppl):21-30.
[3]Chen Yaning,Takeuchi Kuniyoshi,Xu Changchun,etal.Re-gional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin,China[J].Hydrological Process-es,2006,20:2207-2216.
[4]Zhao B F,Xu J H,Chen Z S,et al.Air temperature change in the southern Tarim River Basin,China,1964-2011[J].The Scientific World Journal,2013.Doirl O.1155/2013/894851.
[5]王秋香,张春良,胡义成,司鹏.塔里木河流域内气候要素变化的非均衡性及其成因分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,03:257-263.
[6]汤洋,李翠霞.黑龙江省畜牧业发展水平的因子分析模型构建与综合评价研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2013,12:92-99.
[7]Brunsdon C F,Fotheringham A S,Charlton M E.Geographical weighted regression:a method for exploring spatial nonstationarity[J].Geographical Analysis,1996,8:281-298.
[8]Fotheringham A S,Brunsdon C F,Charlton M E.Geographical weighted regression:a natural evolution of the expansion method for spatial data analysis[J].Environment and Planning A,1998,30:1905-1927.