北京市居民租赁住房可支付能力及空间分异研究
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摘要
长期以来,我国租赁住房市场被严重边缘化,"十三五"规划明确提出建立租购并举的住房制度,彰显了让住房回归"居住属性"特征。住房租赁市场成为研究热点,而居民的租赁住房可支付能力是其关键。本文将保障性租赁住房与商品性租赁住房合为一体作为研究对象,从我国住房租赁市场的现状出发,客观评价不同人群的家庭可支配收入、最低非住房消费标准、住房补贴比例等指标,在此基础上定义人均租赁住房可支付能力指数,用于评估不同人群的可支付能力。结合目前的租赁住房市场的供给情况,运用GIS软件分析居民可支付能力的空间特征,分析北京市现有租赁住房与居民租房可支付能力匹配情况,对于合理制定多层次租赁住房市场政策具有参考意义。
For a long time, China's rental housing market has been severely marginalized. The 13th Five-Year Plan clearly proposes to establish a housing system that combines rent and purchase, highlighting the characteristics of returning housing to "residential properties". The housing leasing market has become a research hotspot, and the affordability of residents' rental housing is the key to pricing and policy formulation of rental housing. This article will take this as an entry point, and combine the affordable rental housing with commercial rental housing as the research object. From the current situation of China's housing rental market, using the rental data of 179 public rental housing communities and 5,980 market-rental housing communities in Beijing, and the household consumption expenditure data of Beijing Statistical Yearbook(2014—2016),objectively evaluate the household disposable income and minimum non-housing consumption of people with different income levels. Based on the indicators such as the proportion of housing subsidies, the per capita maximum rental housing affordability can be calculated. And define the per capita rental housing affordability index, which is used to assess the level of payability of different groups of people. In addition, combined with the current supply situation of the rental housing market, using the Kriging interpolation method and the nuclear density estimation model of GIS software, the spatial characteristics and causes of residents' affordability are analyzed, and the existing rental housing in Beijing is matched with the residential housing affordability.
For a long time, China's rental housing market has been severely marginalized. The 13th Five-Year Plan clearly proposes to establish a housing system that combines rent and purchase, highlighting the characteristics of returning housing to "residential properties". The housing leasing market has become a research hotspot, and the affordability of residents' rental housing is the key to pricing and policy formulation of rental housing. This article will take this as an entry point, and combine the affordable rental housing with commercial rental housing as the research object. From the current situation of China's housing rental market, using the rental data of 179 public rental housing communities and 5,980 market-rental housing communities in Beijing, and the household consumption expenditure data of Beijing Statistical Yearbook(2014—2016),objectively evaluate the household disposable income and minimum non-housing consumption of people with different income levels. Based on the indicators such as the proportion of housing subsidies, the per capita maximum rental housing affordability can be calculated. And define the per capita rental housing affordability index, which is used to assess the level of payability of different groups of people. In addition, combined with the current supply situation of the rental housing market, using the Kriging interpolation method and the nuclear density estimation model of GIS software, the spatial characteristics and causes of residents' affordability are analyzed, and the existing rental housing in Beijing is matched with the residential housing affordability.
引文
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[12]杨赞,易成栋,张慧.基于“剩余收入法”的北京市居民住房可支付能力分析[J].城市发展研究,2010,16(10):36-40.[Yang Zan, Yi Chengdong, Zhang Hui. Analysis of the affordability of Beijing residents'housing based on the Residual Income Law[J]. Urban Development Research, 2010,16(10):36-40.]
[13]李进涛,涂姗.公共租赁住房可支付能力测度研究——以武汉市为例[J].技术经济与管理研究,2016,36(9):97-101.[Li Jintao, Tu Shan. Study on the measurement of the paidability of public rental housing:Taking Wuhan city as an example[J]. Technology Economics and Management Research, 2016,36(9):97-101.]
[14]曾德珩,全利.关于公租房社区的居住与就业空间匹配问题——以重庆市为例[J].城市问题,2014,32(2):88-93.[Zeng Dezhen,Quan Li. On the matching of housing and employment space in public rental housing community:Taking Chongqing city as an example[J]. Urban Problems, 2014,32(2):88-93.]
[15]杨赞,张蔚,易成栋,等.公共租赁住房的可支付性和可达性研究:以北京为例[J].城市发展研究,2013,20(10):69-74.[Yang Zan,Zhang Wei, Yi Chengdong, et al. Research on the affordability and accessibility of public rental housing:Taking Beijing as an example[J]. Urban Development Research, 2013,20(10):69-74.]
[16]禹文豪,艾廷华.核密度估计法支持下的网络空间POI点可视化与分析[J].测绘学报,2015,44(1):82-90.[Yu Wenhao, Ai Tinghua. Visualization and analysis of POI points in network space supported by kernel density estimation method[J]. Acta Geochimica Sinica,2015,44(1):82-90.]
[17]Lluch C. The extended linear expenditure system[J]. European Economic Review, 1973,4(1):21-32.
[18]曾怀恩,黄声享.基于Kriging方法的空间数据插值研究[J].测绘工程,2007,15(5):5-8,13.[Zeng Huaien, Huang Shengxiang. Research on spatial data interpolation based on Kriging method[J]. Surveying and Mapping Engineering, 2007,15(5):5-8,13.]
[19]任平,吴涛,周介铭.基于GIS和空间自相关模型的耕地空间分布格局及变化特征分析——以成都市龙泉驿区为例[J].中国生态农业学报,2016,24(3):325-334.[Ren Ping, Wu Tao, Zhou Jieming.Spatial distribution pattern and change characteristics of cultivated land based on GIS and spatial autocorrelation model:A case study of Longquanyi district in Chengdu[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2016,24(3):325-334.]
[2] Hancock K E.'Can Pay? Won't Pay?'or economic principles of'Affordability'[J]. Urban Studies, 1993,30(1):127-145.
[3]李进涛,孙峻,李红波.城市居民住房承受能力测度研究——剩余收入视角[J].技术经济与管理研究,2011,31(3):74-77.[Li Jintao,Sun Jun, Li Hongbo. Measuring the housing affordability of urban residents:Based on residual income[J]. Technology Economics and Management Research, 2011,31(3):74-77.]
[4]张晶,冯长春.城市居民住房购买力研究——以我国35个大城市为例[J].城市发展研究,2011,18(10):78-83.[Zhang Jing, Feng Changchun. Study on the purchasing power of urban residents:Taking 35 large cities in China as an example[J]. Urban Studies, 2011,18(10):78-83.]
[5] Stone M E. What is housing affordability? The case for the residual income approach[J]. Housing Policy Debate, 2006,17(1):151-184.
[6]陈杰,郝前进,郑麓漪.动态房价收入比——判断中国居民住房可支付性的新思路[J].中国房地产,2008,28(1):25-28.[Chen Jie, Hao Qianjin, Zheng Luyi. Dynamic housing price-to-revenue ratio:A new idea for judging the payability of Chinese residents'housing[J].China Real Estate, 2008,28(1):25-28.]
[7] Hulchanski J D. The concept of housing affordability:Six contemporary uses of the housing expenditure-to-income ratio[J]. Housing Studies, 1995,10(4):471-491.
[8] Philippe T. Identifying households with housing assistance need[J].Urban Studies, 1999,36(11):1933-1947.
[9]曹振良,高晓慧,陈长多,等.房地产经济学通论[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2003:177-178.[Cao Zhenliang, Gao Xiaohui, Chen Changduo, et al. General Theory of Real Estate Economics[M]. Beijing:Peking University Press, 2003:177-178.]
[10]Robinson M, Scobie G M, Hallinan B. Affordability of Housing:Concepts, Measurement and Evidence[Z]. New Zealand:NZ Treasury Working, 2006:4-6.
[11]Stone M E. Shelter Poverty:New Ideas on Housing Affordability[M]. Philadelphia, PA:Temple University Press, 1993:53-54.
[12]杨赞,易成栋,张慧.基于“剩余收入法”的北京市居民住房可支付能力分析[J].城市发展研究,2010,16(10):36-40.[Yang Zan, Yi Chengdong, Zhang Hui. Analysis of the affordability of Beijing residents'housing based on the Residual Income Law[J]. Urban Development Research, 2010,16(10):36-40.]
[13]李进涛,涂姗.公共租赁住房可支付能力测度研究——以武汉市为例[J].技术经济与管理研究,2016,36(9):97-101.[Li Jintao, Tu Shan. Study on the measurement of the paidability of public rental housing:Taking Wuhan city as an example[J]. Technology Economics and Management Research, 2016,36(9):97-101.]
[14]曾德珩,全利.关于公租房社区的居住与就业空间匹配问题——以重庆市为例[J].城市问题,2014,32(2):88-93.[Zeng Dezhen,Quan Li. On the matching of housing and employment space in public rental housing community:Taking Chongqing city as an example[J]. Urban Problems, 2014,32(2):88-93.]
[15]杨赞,张蔚,易成栋,等.公共租赁住房的可支付性和可达性研究:以北京为例[J].城市发展研究,2013,20(10):69-74.[Yang Zan,Zhang Wei, Yi Chengdong, et al. Research on the affordability and accessibility of public rental housing:Taking Beijing as an example[J]. Urban Development Research, 2013,20(10):69-74.]
[16]禹文豪,艾廷华.核密度估计法支持下的网络空间POI点可视化与分析[J].测绘学报,2015,44(1):82-90.[Yu Wenhao, Ai Tinghua. Visualization and analysis of POI points in network space supported by kernel density estimation method[J]. Acta Geochimica Sinica,2015,44(1):82-90.]
[17]Lluch C. The extended linear expenditure system[J]. European Economic Review, 1973,4(1):21-32.
[18]曾怀恩,黄声享.基于Kriging方法的空间数据插值研究[J].测绘工程,2007,15(5):5-8,13.[Zeng Huaien, Huang Shengxiang. Research on spatial data interpolation based on Kriging method[J]. Surveying and Mapping Engineering, 2007,15(5):5-8,13.]
[19]任平,吴涛,周介铭.基于GIS和空间自相关模型的耕地空间分布格局及变化特征分析——以成都市龙泉驿区为例[J].中国生态农业学报,2016,24(3):325-334.[Ren Ping, Wu Tao, Zhou Jieming.Spatial distribution pattern and change characteristics of cultivated land based on GIS and spatial autocorrelation model:A case study of Longquanyi district in Chengdu[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2016,24(3):325-334.]