企业危机网络舆情的传播路径及其在供应链中的纵向溢出效应研究
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摘要
以微博、微信等为代表的社会化媒体为舆情传播提供了新的舞台,给企业危机管理和舆情应对带来深远影响。在人人皆是媒体的环境中,企业危机被新闻媒体曝光后迅速引发网络舆情在社交网站上的大规模传播和扩散,不仅给当事企业的声誉和业绩带来极其严重的负面影响,而且可能在进一步扩散过程中牵连供应链合作伙伴,发生纵向溢出效应。以刺激-认知-反应模型为理论框架,提出新闻报道→网络舆情→企业绩效的外部传导路径;基于激活扩散理论,结合供应链关系的内部中介路径,进一步阐述对危机企业供应链合作伙伴的纵向溢出效应的发生机理。针对危机企业在供应链中与终端客户的距离远近,提出该距离在纵向溢出过程中的调节作用。选择金融数据库、搜索引擎和社交网站等多个来源,收集涵盖71个危机事件和602个供应链对的二手面板数据,探索上述问题。研究结果表明,当危机事件曝光后,纵向相关企业(供应链合作伙伴)确实受纵向溢出效应的影响;在这一过程中,外部网络舆情起重要的传导和扩散作用,从新闻报道引发,并经由线上口碑的发酵和扩散,最终对危机企业的供应链合作伙伴发生纵向溢出效应;从内部企业影响看,危机事件对危机企业的冲击也会直接波及供应链企业,对其产生负面溢出影响。当危机企业与终端客户距离近时,网络舆情诱发更强的纵向溢出效应;当危机企业远离终端客户时,新闻媒体报道对纵向溢出效应的影响更为显著。对供应链纵向溢出效应的探索丰富了危机溢出理论,剖析了网络舆情在纵向溢出过程中的作用,阐述发生纵向溢出效应的情景,深化了对危机溢出发生机制的理解。从实践角度,为企业管理者应对危机和金融投资者的决策分析提供指导意见。
Represented by Microblog and We Chat,social media have provided a new platform for the diffusion of online public opinion,and brought critical impact on firms' crisis management and response for public opinion. In the era of everyone is media,once firms' crisis event is exposed on news media,it will quickly trigger large-scale diffusion and spreading of online public opinion in social media. The negative impact may not only be limited to the focal firm,but can also extend to supply-chain partners,resulting in the vertical spillover effects.Based on the stimulus-organism-response model,this paper proposes the transmission path of news reports' online public opinion'stock-market performance. combing spreading activation theory with the internal intermediary path of supply chain relationship,this paper uncovers the mechanism underlying the vertical spillover effect on the supply chain partners of the firms in crisis. Besides,this paper proposes that when the distance between firms in crisis and end-consumers is different(far or near),moderating effect may exist during the vertical spillover process. To explore these research questions,this paper obtained data from multiple sources including financial databases,search engines and social networking sites,and finally collected second-hand panel data including 71 crisis events and 602 supply chain dyads.The results show that when crisis events are exposed,their vertical-related firms and supply chain partners are indeed affected by the vertical spillover effect. In this process,the external online public opinions play an important role in transmission and diffusion,which are triggered by news reports and eventually generate vertical spillover effect on supply chain partners of firms in crisis. From the influence of inter-firm relationship,the shock of crisis firm will also impact its supply chain partners directly,which leads to a negative spillover effect. In addition,when firms in crisis are near to end consumers,online public opinions will induce stronger vertical spillover effect. When firms in crisis are far from their consumers,the impact of news report on vertical spillover effect will be more significant.The findings of this paper further enrich the theory of crisis spillover effect in the direction of vertical spillover relationship,and it also analyzes the role of online public opinions in the vertical spillover process,and distinguishes different conditions of vertical spillover effect,thus deepens the understanding of the crisis spillover mechanism. From the practical perspective,it provides guidance for the crisis response strategies of firm managers and decision making of financial investors as well.
Represented by Microblog and We Chat,social media have provided a new platform for the diffusion of online public opinion,and brought critical impact on firms' crisis management and response for public opinion. In the era of everyone is media,once firms' crisis event is exposed on news media,it will quickly trigger large-scale diffusion and spreading of online public opinion in social media. The negative impact may not only be limited to the focal firm,but can also extend to supply-chain partners,resulting in the vertical spillover effects.Based on the stimulus-organism-response model,this paper proposes the transmission path of news reports' online public opinion'stock-market performance. combing spreading activation theory with the internal intermediary path of supply chain relationship,this paper uncovers the mechanism underlying the vertical spillover effect on the supply chain partners of the firms in crisis. Besides,this paper proposes that when the distance between firms in crisis and end-consumers is different(far or near),moderating effect may exist during the vertical spillover process. To explore these research questions,this paper obtained data from multiple sources including financial databases,search engines and social networking sites,and finally collected second-hand panel data including 71 crisis events and 602 supply chain dyads.The results show that when crisis events are exposed,their vertical-related firms and supply chain partners are indeed affected by the vertical spillover effect. In this process,the external online public opinions play an important role in transmission and diffusion,which are triggered by news reports and eventually generate vertical spillover effect on supply chain partners of firms in crisis. From the influence of inter-firm relationship,the shock of crisis firm will also impact its supply chain partners directly,which leads to a negative spillover effect. In addition,when firms in crisis are near to end consumers,online public opinions will induce stronger vertical spillover effect. When firms in crisis are far from their consumers,the impact of news report on vertical spillover effect will be more significant.The findings of this paper further enrich the theory of crisis spillover effect in the direction of vertical spillover relationship,and it also analyzes the role of online public opinions in the vertical spillover process,and distinguishes different conditions of vertical spillover effect,thus deepens the understanding of the crisis spillover mechanism. From the practical perspective,it provides guidance for the crisis response strategies of firm managers and decision making of financial investors as well.
引文
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[5] YU T Y,SENGUL M,LESTER R H. Misery loves company:the spread of negative impacts resulting from an organizational crisis. Academy of Management Review,2008,33(2):452-472.
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[8] ZOU P,LI G F. How emerging market investors'value competitors'customer equity:brand crisis spillover in China.Journal of Business Research,2016,69(9):3765-3771.
[9]花海燕,伍勇强.产品伤害危机对竞争企业股票的溢出效应研究:品牌相似性和基金持股比例的作用.经营管理者,2015,3(9):1-3.HUA Haiyan,WU Yongqiang. The spillover effect of product harm crisis on competitive firms'stock performance:the effect of brand similarity and shareholding ratio. Manager'Journal,2015,3(9):1-3.(in Chinese)
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[11]汪峰.基于组织声誉修复的综合危机应对管理研究.合肥:中国科学技术大学,2013:51.WANG Feng. Comprehensive crisis response management based on organizational reputation restoration. Hefei:University of Science and Technology of China,2013:51.(in Chinese)
[12] MEHRABIAN A,RUSSELL J A. An approach to environmental psychology. Cambridge,MA:The MIT Press,1974:31.
[13] HU X,HUANG Q,ZHONG X P,et al. The influence of peer characteristics and technical features of a social shopping website on a consumer's purchase intention. International Journal of Information Management,2016,36(6):1218-1230.
[14] GAO H Z,KNIGHT J G,ZHANG H X,et al. Consumer scapegoating during a systemic product-harm crisis. Journal of Marketing Management,2012,28(11/12):1270-1290.
[15] GOPINATH S,THOMAS J S,KRISHNAMURTHI L. Investigating the relationship between the content of online word of mouth,advertising,and brand performance. Marketing Science,2014,33(2):241-258.
[16] BOLLEN J,MAO H,ZENG X J. Twitter mood predicts the stock market. Journal of Computational Science,2011,2(1):1-8.
[17] COLLINS A M,LOFTUS E F. A spreading-activation theory of semantic processing∥Readings in Cognitive Science.London:Elsevier Inc,1988:126-136.
[18]胡晓兰,肖科峰.论物流与人力流、信息流、资金流的整合优化.云南社会科学,2016,36(6):68-72.HU Xiaolan,XIAO Kefeng. On integrated optimization of material flow,human flow,information flow and capital flow.Social Sciences in Yunnan,2016,36(6):68-72.(in Chinese)
[19]王禹杰,高雪垠.基于BIM的建筑供应链信息模型构建.社会科学前沿,2016,5(5):702-707.WANG Yujie,GAO Xueyin. Information model specification of construction supply chain based on BIM. Advances in Social Sciences,2016,5(5):702-707.(in Chinese)
[20]FORRESTER J W. Industrial dynamics. Eastford:Martino Fine Books,2013:1037-1041.
[21] HUO B F,HAN Z J,PRAJOGO D. Antecedents and consequences of supply chain information integration:a resourcebased view. Supply Chain Management,2016,21(6):661-677.
[22] BOUTE R N,DISNEY S M,LAMBRECHT M R,et al. A win-win solution for the bullwhip problem. Production Planning&Control,2008,19(7):702-711.
[23] KACHE F,SEURING S. Challenges and opportunities of digital information at the intersection of big data analytics and supply chain management. International Journal of Operations&Production Management,2017,37(1):10-36.
[24] FANG L,PERESS J. Media coverage and the cross-section of stock returns. The Journal of Finance,2009,64(5):2023-2052.
[25]王丽娜,马得勇.新媒体时代媒体的可信度分析:以中国网民为对象的实证研究.武汉大学学报(人文科学版),2016,69(1):88-99.WANG Lina,MA Deyong. The determinants of media credibility in the new media age:an empirical analysis of Chinese netizens. Wuhan University Journal(Humanity Sciences),2016,69(1):88-99.(in Chinese)
[26]武慧锋.新闻报道对股票价格影响的实证研究.财政科学,2017,21(9):135-140.WU Huifeng. Empirical study on how news impact stock prices. Fiscal Science,2017,21(9):135-140.(in Chinese)
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