安徽绿色经济发展系统动力学模型及政策仿真
|
摘要
文章以安徽绿色发展的节能减排系统为研究对象,运用系统动力学模型,对财政、税收、金融、环保、产业与科技六类政策不同情境下节能减排绩效进行仿真模拟,并对不同政策组合情境下的节能减排绩效进行比较。研究发现:在六类政策中,税收和环保政策的效果最为显著,财政和产业政策次之,科技和金融政策节能减排效果最弱;与单一政策相比,节能减排政策组合实施的效果最优。据此,提出节能减排政策优化的相关建议。
This paper takes Anhui's energy saving and emission reduction system of green development as the research object,and uses the system dynamics model to simulate the performance of energy saving and emission reduction under different situations of fiscal, tax, financial, environmental protection, industrial and technological policies, and compare the performance of energy saving and emission reduction under different policy combinations. The result shows: Among the six types of policies,the effects of taxation and environmental protection policies are the most significant, followed by fiscal and industrial policies,and science and technology and financial policies are the weakest; Compared with a single policy, the combination of energy conservation and emission reduction policies has the best effect. Accordingly, some suggestions on the optimization of energy conservation and emission reduction policies are proposed.
This paper takes Anhui's energy saving and emission reduction system of green development as the research object,and uses the system dynamics model to simulate the performance of energy saving and emission reduction under different situations of fiscal, tax, financial, environmental protection, industrial and technological policies, and compare the performance of energy saving and emission reduction under different policy combinations. The result shows: Among the six types of policies,the effects of taxation and environmental protection policies are the most significant, followed by fiscal and industrial policies,and science and technology and financial policies are the weakest; Compared with a single policy, the combination of energy conservation and emission reduction policies has the best effect. Accordingly, some suggestions on the optimization of energy conservation and emission reduction policies are proposed.
引文
[1]庇古.福利经济学.北京:商务印书馆.2006:33-41.
[2]COASE R H.The Problem of Social Cost[J].Journal of Law&Economics,1960,3(4):1-44.
[3]GOULDER L H.Climate change policy’s interactions with the tax system[J].Energy Economics,2013,40(S):3-11.
[4]DREZNER J A.Designing effective incentives for energy conservation in the public sector[J].California:Claremont Graduate University,1999.
[5]CALLAN T,LYONS S,SCOTT S,et al.The distributional implications of a carbon tax in Ireland[J].Energy Policy,2009,37(2):407-412.
[6]BEUUSEJOUR L,LENJOSEK G,SMART M.A CGE Approach to Modelling Carbon Dioxide Emissions Control in Canada and the United States[J].World Economy,1995,18(3):457-488.
[7]LUETH O,JATTKE A,SCHOETTLE H,et al.Emission reduction strategies for Central and Eastern Europe[J].Energy Policy,1997,25(3):305-312..
[8]NONG D,SIRIWARDANA M.Australia’s Emissions Reduction Fund in an international context[J].Economic Analysis and Policy,2017,54:123-134.
[9]张国兴,张振华,管欣.我国节能减排政策的措施与目标协同有效吗?[J].管理科学学报,2017(3):162-182.
[10]郭骊.论构建中国特色环境税体系[J].中央财经大学学报,2008(5):11-16.
[11]路正南.产业结构调整对我国能源消费影响的实证分析[J]数量经济技术研究,1999(12):53-55.
[12]魏楚,杜立民,沈满洪.中国能否实现节能减排目标:基于DEA方法的评价与模拟[J].世界经济,2010(3):141-160.
[13]汪克亮,史利娟,刘悦.中国节能减排效率的地区差异、动态演进与驱动因素--基于非径向加权Russell DDF与Luenberger生产率指标[J].华东经济管理,2018(1):53-61.
[14]张吉岗、杨红娟.基于DDF-DEA三阶段模型的省域节能减排效率评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018(9):24-31.
[15]张国兴,张培德,修静.节能减排政策措施对产业结构调整与升级的有效性[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018(2):123-133.
[16]徐晓亮.资源税改革能调整区域差异和节能减排吗?--动态多区域CGE模型的分析[J].经济科学,2012(5):45-54.
[17]王艳,李思一,吴叶君,等.中国可持续发展系统动力学仿真模型--社会部分[J].计算机仿真,1998(1):5-7.
[18]程叶青,李同升,张宇.SD模型在区域可持续发展规划中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004(12):13-18.
[19]王灵梅,刘丽娟,魏武红.火电企业节能减排的系统动力学模拟与调控[J].山西电力,2012(1):36-39.
[20]周雄勇,许志端,郗永勤.中国节能减排系统动力学模型及政策优化仿真[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018(6):1422-1444.
[2]COASE R H.The Problem of Social Cost[J].Journal of Law&Economics,1960,3(4):1-44.
[3]GOULDER L H.Climate change policy’s interactions with the tax system[J].Energy Economics,2013,40(S):3-11.
[4]DREZNER J A.Designing effective incentives for energy conservation in the public sector[J].California:Claremont Graduate University,1999.
[5]CALLAN T,LYONS S,SCOTT S,et al.The distributional implications of a carbon tax in Ireland[J].Energy Policy,2009,37(2):407-412.
[6]BEUUSEJOUR L,LENJOSEK G,SMART M.A CGE Approach to Modelling Carbon Dioxide Emissions Control in Canada and the United States[J].World Economy,1995,18(3):457-488.
[7]LUETH O,JATTKE A,SCHOETTLE H,et al.Emission reduction strategies for Central and Eastern Europe[J].Energy Policy,1997,25(3):305-312..
[8]NONG D,SIRIWARDANA M.Australia’s Emissions Reduction Fund in an international context[J].Economic Analysis and Policy,2017,54:123-134.
[9]张国兴,张振华,管欣.我国节能减排政策的措施与目标协同有效吗?[J].管理科学学报,2017(3):162-182.
[10]郭骊.论构建中国特色环境税体系[J].中央财经大学学报,2008(5):11-16.
[11]路正南.产业结构调整对我国能源消费影响的实证分析[J]数量经济技术研究,1999(12):53-55.
[12]魏楚,杜立民,沈满洪.中国能否实现节能减排目标:基于DEA方法的评价与模拟[J].世界经济,2010(3):141-160.
[13]汪克亮,史利娟,刘悦.中国节能减排效率的地区差异、动态演进与驱动因素--基于非径向加权Russell DDF与Luenberger生产率指标[J].华东经济管理,2018(1):53-61.
[14]张吉岗、杨红娟.基于DDF-DEA三阶段模型的省域节能减排效率评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018(9):24-31.
[15]张国兴,张培德,修静.节能减排政策措施对产业结构调整与升级的有效性[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018(2):123-133.
[16]徐晓亮.资源税改革能调整区域差异和节能减排吗?--动态多区域CGE模型的分析[J].经济科学,2012(5):45-54.
[17]王艳,李思一,吴叶君,等.中国可持续发展系统动力学仿真模型--社会部分[J].计算机仿真,1998(1):5-7.
[18]程叶青,李同升,张宇.SD模型在区域可持续发展规划中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004(12):13-18.
[19]王灵梅,刘丽娟,魏武红.火电企业节能减排的系统动力学模拟与调控[J].山西电力,2012(1):36-39.
[20]周雄勇,许志端,郗永勤.中国节能减排系统动力学模型及政策优化仿真[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018(6):1422-1444.