农村持久多维贫困测量与分析——基于贵州普定县三个行政村2004—2017年的普查数据
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摘要
中国的精准扶贫已经进入深度贫困的脱贫攻坚阶段。尽管学界尚未明确给出深度贫困的定义,但学界研究的持久贫困与当前政策所关注的深度贫困具有相同内涵,研究农村持久贫困问题,有助于理解深度贫困并为减贫政策的制定提供科学依据。本文利用贵州省普定县三个行政村2004—2017年整村调研所形成的5期面板数据,从多维视角出发,考察农村持久贫困的规模、分布及成因。具体地,首先采用AF多维贫困测量法构建多维贫困指标体系,测算农村家庭在健康、教育、居住条件和资产四个维度的持久多维贫困发生率。其次,为考察不同维度的贫困状况,对持久多维贫困指数进行分解分析。此外,进一步实证分析农村持久多维贫困的致贫原因。研究发现:①农村持久多维贫困发生率为28. 62%,意味着在农村近三分之一的家庭经历着持久贫困。②健康状况差是持久多维贫困的主要方面。健康维度对持久多维贫困指数的总体贡献率为31. 3%,且健康维度未表现出明显的改善趋势,健康维度内的慢性病指标甚至表现出恶化的趋势。③劳动力缺乏以及由此造成的养老负担重已经成为持久贫困的重要致贫原因。本研究有着如下政策启示:①在帮扶群体上,需更加关注非深度贫困地区的深度贫困问题。②在帮扶维度上,需重视改善深度贫困人口的健康状况。③在具体帮扶措施上,需充分考虑深度贫困家庭的劳动力缺乏状况。具体地,在需要投入要素的帮扶措施中,探索除劳动力投入外的其他投入机制。同时,需提高农村的医疗、养老等保障水平与服务水平,充分发挥社会保障兜底的减贫作用。
China's targeted poverty alleviation strategy has progressed to reduce deep poverty across the country. Although the academia has yet to define deep poverty which is under policy discussion,researchers do pay attention to the identical concept of chronic poverty. Studying chronic poverty in rural China will help understand deep poverty and formulate evidence-based poverty reduction policies. From a multidimensional perspective,this paper uses a five-round( 2004-2017) panel census data from three administrative villages in Puding County,Guizhou Province,to analyze the scale,distribution,and causes of chronic poverty in rural China. The first step is to use the AF multidimensional poverty measurement method to develop an index to measure the incidence of chronic multidimensional poverty within four dimensions including health,education,living conditions,and assets. Secondly,the chronic multidimensional poverty index is decomposed to analyze the poverty status in each of the four dimensions. This paper further conducts an empirical analysis to find the causes of chronic multidimensional poverty in rural China. Major findings are: ① The incidence of chronic multidimensional poverty is 28. 62%,which means that about one-third of households in impoverished rural areas experienced chronic poverty. ②Poor health is the main aspect of poverty. The overall contribution rate of the health dimension to the chronic multidimensional poverty index is 31. 3%. And the health dimension does not show significant improvement. The performance of the chronic disease indicator in the health dimension even deteriorated. ③The lack of labor and the related challenges of elderly care are important causes of poverty. This paper has the following policy implications: ①In terms of the targeted poor group,more attention should be paid to deep poverty in non-deep-poverty areas. ②In terms of the dimension of anti-poverty assistance,health status of the deep poor population should be prioritized. ③About the specific assistance measures,it is necessary to tackle the problem of labor shortage in deep poor families. Specifically,the input mechanisms should be expanded besides labor input. Also,medical care and elderly care in rural areas need to be improved,and the role of social security in poverty reduction is worth emphasizing.
China's targeted poverty alleviation strategy has progressed to reduce deep poverty across the country. Although the academia has yet to define deep poverty which is under policy discussion,researchers do pay attention to the identical concept of chronic poverty. Studying chronic poverty in rural China will help understand deep poverty and formulate evidence-based poverty reduction policies. From a multidimensional perspective,this paper uses a five-round( 2004-2017) panel census data from three administrative villages in Puding County,Guizhou Province,to analyze the scale,distribution,and causes of chronic poverty in rural China. The first step is to use the AF multidimensional poverty measurement method to develop an index to measure the incidence of chronic multidimensional poverty within four dimensions including health,education,living conditions,and assets. Secondly,the chronic multidimensional poverty index is decomposed to analyze the poverty status in each of the four dimensions. This paper further conducts an empirical analysis to find the causes of chronic multidimensional poverty in rural China. Major findings are: ① The incidence of chronic multidimensional poverty is 28. 62%,which means that about one-third of households in impoverished rural areas experienced chronic poverty. ②Poor health is the main aspect of poverty. The overall contribution rate of the health dimension to the chronic multidimensional poverty index is 31. 3%. And the health dimension does not show significant improvement. The performance of the chronic disease indicator in the health dimension even deteriorated. ③The lack of labor and the related challenges of elderly care are important causes of poverty. This paper has the following policy implications: ①In terms of the targeted poor group,more attention should be paid to deep poverty in non-deep-poverty areas. ②In terms of the dimension of anti-poverty assistance,health status of the deep poor population should be prioritized. ③About the specific assistance measures,it is necessary to tackle the problem of labor shortage in deep poor families. Specifically,the input mechanisms should be expanded besides labor input. Also,medical care and elderly care in rural areas need to be improved,and the role of social security in poverty reduction is worth emphasizing.
引文
[1]李小云.冲破“贫困陷阱”:深度贫困地区的脱贫攻坚[J].人民论坛·学术前沿,2018(14):6-13.
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[7]章元,万广华,史清华.暂时贫困与深度贫困的度量、分解和决定因素分析[J].经济研究,2013(4):119-129.
[8]阿玛蒂亚·森.以自由看待发展[M].任赜,于真,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002:13-15.
[9]ALKIRE S,FOSTER J. Counting and multidimensional poverty measurement[J]. Journal of public economics,2007,95(7):476-487.
[10]迈克尔·P托达罗,斯蒂芬·C史密斯.发展经济学[M].聂巧平,程晶荣,汪小雯,等,译.北京:机械工业出版社,2009:134-152.
[11]郭熙保,周强.长期多维贫困、不平等与致贫因素[J].经济研究,2016(6):143-156.
[12]周强,张全红.中国家庭长期多维贫困状态转化及教育因素研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017,34(4):3-19.
[13]葛岩,吴海霞,陈利斯.儿童长期多维贫困、动态性与致贫因素[J].财贸经济,2018,39(7):18-33.
[14]WOOLARD I,KLASEN S. Determinants of income mobility and household poverty dynamics in South Africa[J]. Journal of development studies,2005,41(5):865-897.
[15]罗楚亮.农村贫困的动态变化[J].经济研究,2010(5):123-138.
[16]SEN A. Poverty:an ordinal approach to measurement[J].Econometrica,1976,44(2):219-231.
[17]郭建宇,吴国宝.基于不同指标及权重选择的多维贫困测量——以山西省贫困县为例[J].中国农村经济,2012(2):12-20.
[18]潘杰,雷晓燕,刘国恩.医疗保险促进健康吗?——基于中国城镇居民基本医疗保险的实证分析[J].经济研究,2013(4):130-142.
[19]NUSSBAUM M C. Symposium on Amartya Sen’s philosophy:5adaptive preferences and women’s options[J]. Economics&philosophy,2001,17(1):67-88.
[20]GAIHA R,DEOLALIKAR A B. Persistent,expected and innate poverty:estimates for semi-arid rural South India,1975-1984[J].Cambridge journal of economics,1993,17(4):409-421.
[21]HULME D,SHEPHERD A. Conceptualizing chronic poverty[J].World development,2003,31(3):403-423.
[22]DECANCQ K,LUGO M A. Inequality of wellbeing:a multidimensional approach[J]. Economica,2012,79(316):721-746.
[23]DECANCQ K,DECOSTER A,SCHOKKAERT E. The evolution of world inequality in well-being[J]. World development,2009,37(1):11-25.
[24]TRANI J F,KUHLBERG J,CANNINGS T,et al. Multidimensional poverty in Afghanistan:who are the poorest of the poor?[J]. Oxford development studies,2016,44(2):220-245.
[25]ALKIRES,ROCHE J M,SETH S,et al. Identifying the poorest people and groups:strategies using the global multidimensional poverty index[J]. Journal of international development,2015,27(3):362-387.
[26]郭君平,谭清香,曲颂.进城农民工家庭贫困的测量与分析——基于“收入-消费-多维”视角[J].中国农村经济,2018(9):94-109.
[27]杨龙,汪三贵.贫困地区家庭的多维贫困测量与分解——基于2010年中国农村贫困监测的家庭数据[J].人口学刊,2015,37(2):15-25.
[28]张玉梅,陈志钢.惠农政策和贵州农村贫困研究[M].北京:中国农业科学技术出版社,2017:16-17.
[29]ALKIRE S, APABLAZA M, CHAKRAVARTY S R, et al.Measuring chronic multidimensional poverty[J]. Journal of policy modeling,2017,39(6):983-1006.
[30]樊丽明,解垩.公共转移支付减少了贫困脆弱性吗?[J].经济研究,2014(8):67-78.
[2]RAVALLION M. Expected poverty under risk-induced welfare variability[J]. The economic journal,1988,98(393):1171-1182.
[3]李培林,魏后凯,吴国宝,等.中国扶贫开发报告(2017)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2017:50-52.
[4]JALAN J,RAVALLION M. Transient poverty in postreform rural China[J]. Journal of comparative economics,1998,26(2):338-357.
[5]GUSTAFSSON B,DING S. Temporary and persistent poverty among ethnic minorities and the majority in rural China[J]. Review of income and wealth,2009,55:588-606.
[6]JALAN J,RAVALLION M. Is transient poverty different? evidence for rural China[J]. Journal of development studies,2000,36(6):82-99.
[7]章元,万广华,史清华.暂时贫困与深度贫困的度量、分解和决定因素分析[J].经济研究,2013(4):119-129.
[8]阿玛蒂亚·森.以自由看待发展[M].任赜,于真,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002:13-15.
[9]ALKIRE S,FOSTER J. Counting and multidimensional poverty measurement[J]. Journal of public economics,2007,95(7):476-487.
[10]迈克尔·P托达罗,斯蒂芬·C史密斯.发展经济学[M].聂巧平,程晶荣,汪小雯,等,译.北京:机械工业出版社,2009:134-152.
[11]郭熙保,周强.长期多维贫困、不平等与致贫因素[J].经济研究,2016(6):143-156.
[12]周强,张全红.中国家庭长期多维贫困状态转化及教育因素研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017,34(4):3-19.
[13]葛岩,吴海霞,陈利斯.儿童长期多维贫困、动态性与致贫因素[J].财贸经济,2018,39(7):18-33.
[14]WOOLARD I,KLASEN S. Determinants of income mobility and household poverty dynamics in South Africa[J]. Journal of development studies,2005,41(5):865-897.
[15]罗楚亮.农村贫困的动态变化[J].经济研究,2010(5):123-138.
[16]SEN A. Poverty:an ordinal approach to measurement[J].Econometrica,1976,44(2):219-231.
[17]郭建宇,吴国宝.基于不同指标及权重选择的多维贫困测量——以山西省贫困县为例[J].中国农村经济,2012(2):12-20.
[18]潘杰,雷晓燕,刘国恩.医疗保险促进健康吗?——基于中国城镇居民基本医疗保险的实证分析[J].经济研究,2013(4):130-142.
[19]NUSSBAUM M C. Symposium on Amartya Sen’s philosophy:5adaptive preferences and women’s options[J]. Economics&philosophy,2001,17(1):67-88.
[20]GAIHA R,DEOLALIKAR A B. Persistent,expected and innate poverty:estimates for semi-arid rural South India,1975-1984[J].Cambridge journal of economics,1993,17(4):409-421.
[21]HULME D,SHEPHERD A. Conceptualizing chronic poverty[J].World development,2003,31(3):403-423.
[22]DECANCQ K,LUGO M A. Inequality of wellbeing:a multidimensional approach[J]. Economica,2012,79(316):721-746.
[23]DECANCQ K,DECOSTER A,SCHOKKAERT E. The evolution of world inequality in well-being[J]. World development,2009,37(1):11-25.
[24]TRANI J F,KUHLBERG J,CANNINGS T,et al. Multidimensional poverty in Afghanistan:who are the poorest of the poor?[J]. Oxford development studies,2016,44(2):220-245.
[25]ALKIRES,ROCHE J M,SETH S,et al. Identifying the poorest people and groups:strategies using the global multidimensional poverty index[J]. Journal of international development,2015,27(3):362-387.
[26]郭君平,谭清香,曲颂.进城农民工家庭贫困的测量与分析——基于“收入-消费-多维”视角[J].中国农村经济,2018(9):94-109.
[27]杨龙,汪三贵.贫困地区家庭的多维贫困测量与分解——基于2010年中国农村贫困监测的家庭数据[J].人口学刊,2015,37(2):15-25.
[28]张玉梅,陈志钢.惠农政策和贵州农村贫困研究[M].北京:中国农业科学技术出版社,2017:16-17.
[29]ALKIRE S, APABLAZA M, CHAKRAVARTY S R, et al.Measuring chronic multidimensional poverty[J]. Journal of policy modeling,2017,39(6):983-1006.
[30]樊丽明,解垩.公共转移支付减少了贫困脆弱性吗?[J].经济研究,2014(8):67-78.