产业集聚、城市人口规模与二氧化碳排放
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摘要
人口城镇化加剧了温室气体排放,在这一过程中产业集聚发挥着重要的作用。通过利用中国108个地级市2003～2015年间的面板数据对产业集聚、城市人口规模与二氧化碳排放进行实证研究。结果表明:(1)产业集聚显著减少了城镇碳排放,但产业集聚降低二氧化碳排放的效应具有区域异质性。在东部城市,产业集聚显著减少了城镇碳排放;而在中西部城市,产业集聚降低碳排放的效应则没有通过显著性检验。(2)产业集聚在中等城市和人口小于500万人的大城市的减排效果较好,能够显著地减少城市碳排放。随着城市人口规模的扩张,产业集聚引起碳减排的效果是递减的。因此,低碳约束下的最优城市人口规模为中等城市和人口少于500万人的大城市。
Previous literature has found that population urbanization increased carbon emissions,but few articles investigate the role of industrial agglomeration in the urban population expansion and carbon emissions increase. Using a panel data of 108 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2015,this study analyzes the impact of industrial agglomeration on CO_2 emissions during China's rapid urbanization process. The empirical results indicate that:(1)Generally,industrial agglomeration decreases urban CO_2 emissions significantly,but the results vary across regions. For eastern prefectures,the industrial agglomeration negatively impacts CO_2 emissions significantly,whereas in central and western prefectures the effects are insignificant.(2)Industrial agglomeration reduces most CO_2 emissions in medium-sized cities and big cities with less than 5 million inhabitants,whereas least CO_2 emissions in megacities population of over 5 million people. Therefore,optimal urban sizes under low-carbon constraint are medium-sized cities and big cities with less than 5 million inhabitants.
Previous literature has found that population urbanization increased carbon emissions,but few articles investigate the role of industrial agglomeration in the urban population expansion and carbon emissions increase. Using a panel data of 108 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2015,this study analyzes the impact of industrial agglomeration on CO_2 emissions during China's rapid urbanization process. The empirical results indicate that:(1)Generally,industrial agglomeration decreases urban CO_2 emissions significantly,but the results vary across regions. For eastern prefectures,the industrial agglomeration negatively impacts CO_2 emissions significantly,whereas in central and western prefectures the effects are insignificant.(2)Industrial agglomeration reduces most CO_2 emissions in medium-sized cities and big cities with less than 5 million inhabitants,whereas least CO_2 emissions in megacities population of over 5 million people. Therefore,optimal urban sizes under low-carbon constraint are medium-sized cities and big cities with less than 5 million inhabitants.
引文
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[28] Fujita M,Thisse J F. The Economics of Agglomeration:Cities,Industrial Location and Regional Growth[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2002.
[29] Su Q. The Effect of Population Density,Road Network Density,and Congestion on Household Gasoline Consumption in U.S. Urban Areas[J]. Energy Economics,2011(3):445-452.
[30] Otsuka A,Goto M,Sueyoshi T. Energy Efficiency and Agglomeration Economies:The Case of Japanese Manufacturing Industries[J]. Regional Science Policy&Practice,2014(2):195-212.
[31]乜敏,赵洪海.产业集聚是否促进了低碳发展[J].经济与管理,2013(6):70-75.
[32]林善浪,张作雄,刘国平.技术创新、空间集聚与区域碳生产率[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013(5):36-45.
[33]陈媛媛.工业集聚对行业清洁生产与末端治理的影响[J].南方经济,2011(5):17-27.
[34]王海宁,陈媛媛.产业集聚效应与工业能源效率研究:基于中国25个工业行业的实证分析[J].财经研究,2010(9):69-79.
[35]李思慧.产业集聚、人力资本与企业能源效率:以高新技术企业为例[J].财贸经济,2011(9):128-134.
[36]张翼,卢现祥.技术交易与产业集聚互动视角的区域二氧化碳减排研究——来自中国省域层面的经验证据[J].财贸研究,2015(5):33-40.
[37]沈能,王艳,王群伟.集聚外部性与碳生产率空间趋同研究[J].中国人口·资源·环境,2013(12):40-47.
[38]陈立泰,张祖妞.我国服务业空间集聚水平测度及影响因素研究[J].中国科技论坛,2010(9):51-57.
[39]刘修岩.集聚经济与劳动生产率:基于中国城市面板数据的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009(7):109-119.
[40] Brulhart M,Mathys N A. Sectoral Agglomeration Economies in A Panel of European Regions[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2008,38(4):348-362.
[41]范剑勇.产业集聚与地区间劳动生产率差异[J].经济研究,2006(11):72-81.
[42] Ciccone A. Input Chains and Industrialization[J]. Review of Economic Studies,2002(3):565-587.
[43] Ciccone A,Hall R E. Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity[J]. The American Economic Review,1996(1):54-70.
[2] Dhakal S. Urban Energy Use and Carbon Emissions from Cities in China and Policy Implications[J]. Energy Policy,2009(11):4208-4219.
[3] Krugman P. Geography and Trade[M]. MIT Press,1991.
[4]朱智文.基于产业集聚的城市化和城市化过程中的产业集聚[J].开发研究,2006(6):45-48.
[5]乔彬,李国平.城市群形成的产业机理[J].经济管理,2006(22):78-83.
[6]陆根尧,盛龙.产业集聚与城市化互动发展机制研究:理论与实证[J].发展研究,2012(10):84-91.
[7]纪良纲,陈晓永.城市化与产业集聚互动发展研究[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2005.
[8]罗薇薇.产业集聚程度与城市化水平相关性的实证分析——以1988~2003年的广东省为例[J].兰州商学院学报,2006(2):50-54.
[9]马春辉.产业集群的发展与城市化——以长江、珠江三角洲为例[J].经济问题,2004(3):30-32.
[10]苏雪串.城市化进程中的要素集聚、产业集群和城市群发展[J].中央财经大学学报,2004(1):49-52.
[11]赵淑玲,曹康.产业集群与城市化关系问题研究[J].河南社会科学,2005(2):136-138.
[12]赵玮,王韬,李德功.论中部地区产业集聚与城市化之互动[J].地域研究与开发,2006(4):43-47.
[13]陈柳钦,黄坡.产业集群与城市化分析——基于外部性视角[J].西华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007(2):78-81.
[14]徐璐,张明龙.产业空间集聚与城市化的互动关系研究[J].北方经济,2005(3):66-67.
[15]师博,沈坤荣.政府干预、经济集聚与能源效率[J].管理世界,2013(10):6-18.
[16] Becker R,Henderson V. Effects of Air Quality Regulations on Polluting Industries[J]. Journal of Political Economy,2000(2):379-421.
[17]余素洁.产业集群与城市化[J].北方经贸,2009(9):38-39.
[18]于斌斌,胡汉辉.产业集群与城市化的共同演化机制:理论与实证[J].产业经济研究,2013(6):1-11.
[19]冯云廷.城市集聚经济——一般理论及其对中国城市化问题的应用分析[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2001.
[20]沈飞,俞武扬.产业集群与区域城市化进程关联的固定效应模型实证研究[J].经济与管理,2013(1):81-86.
[21]曾国平,刘佳,曹跃群.中国服务业发展与城市化关系的区域差异——基于省级面板数据的协整检验[J].山西财经大学学报,2008(1):32-37.
[22] Virkanen J. Effect of Urbanization on Metal Deposition,in the Bay of Southern Finland[J]. Marine Pollution Bulletin,1998(9):729-738.
[23] Nijkamp P,Verhoef E T. Urban Environmental Externalities,Agglomeration Forces,and The Technological deus ex Machina[J]. Environment and Planning A,2008(4):928-947.
[24]侯凤岐.我国区域经济集聚的环境效应研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2008(5):20-25.
[25]李伟娜.产业集聚、环境污染与区域协调发展研究[J].现代管理科学,2010(3):47-48.
[26] Porter M E. Clusters and the new economics of competition[J]. Harvard Business Review,1998(6):77.
[27] Hosoe M,Naito T. Trans-boundary Pollution Transmission and Regional Agglomeration Effects-super[J]. Regional Science 2006(1):99-120.
[28] Fujita M,Thisse J F. The Economics of Agglomeration:Cities,Industrial Location and Regional Growth[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2002.
[29] Su Q. The Effect of Population Density,Road Network Density,and Congestion on Household Gasoline Consumption in U.S. Urban Areas[J]. Energy Economics,2011(3):445-452.
[30] Otsuka A,Goto M,Sueyoshi T. Energy Efficiency and Agglomeration Economies:The Case of Japanese Manufacturing Industries[J]. Regional Science Policy&Practice,2014(2):195-212.
[31]乜敏,赵洪海.产业集聚是否促进了低碳发展[J].经济与管理,2013(6):70-75.
[32]林善浪,张作雄,刘国平.技术创新、空间集聚与区域碳生产率[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013(5):36-45.
[33]陈媛媛.工业集聚对行业清洁生产与末端治理的影响[J].南方经济,2011(5):17-27.
[34]王海宁,陈媛媛.产业集聚效应与工业能源效率研究:基于中国25个工业行业的实证分析[J].财经研究,2010(9):69-79.
[35]李思慧.产业集聚、人力资本与企业能源效率:以高新技术企业为例[J].财贸经济,2011(9):128-134.
[36]张翼,卢现祥.技术交易与产业集聚互动视角的区域二氧化碳减排研究——来自中国省域层面的经验证据[J].财贸研究,2015(5):33-40.
[37]沈能,王艳,王群伟.集聚外部性与碳生产率空间趋同研究[J].中国人口·资源·环境,2013(12):40-47.
[38]陈立泰,张祖妞.我国服务业空间集聚水平测度及影响因素研究[J].中国科技论坛,2010(9):51-57.
[39]刘修岩.集聚经济与劳动生产率:基于中国城市面板数据的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009(7):109-119.
[40] Brulhart M,Mathys N A. Sectoral Agglomeration Economies in A Panel of European Regions[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2008,38(4):348-362.
[41]范剑勇.产业集聚与地区间劳动生产率差异[J].经济研究,2006(11):72-81.
[42] Ciccone A. Input Chains and Industrialization[J]. Review of Economic Studies,2002(3):565-587.
[43] Ciccone A,Hall R E. Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity[J]. The American Economic Review,1996(1):54-70.