弱震区弱活动断裂的地震危险性评价——以丹江断裂为例
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摘要
如何评价弱震区弱活动断裂的最大潜在地震震级及其危险性是地震中长期预测和地震区划研究中较为重要的问题之一。借鉴闻学泽等[1]对中国大陆东部中-弱活断层潜在地震最大震级评估的思路,对丹江口核心水源区已发最大地震震级M_(max)与断层小区震级-频度参数at/b值之间的关系进行统计分析。综合at/b值与最大地震震级上限Mu经验公式计算结果、老河口潜在震源区震级上限以及断裂活动性判断,丹江断裂的震级上限为MS6.0,并利用泊松模型方法评估了该断裂的地震平均复发间隔和发震概率。
An important problem in long-term prediction and seismic zonation analysis is how to evaluate the potential seismic risk of weakly active faults in weak seismic background.The authors refer to the method that Wen advances to estimate magnitudes of maximum potential earthquakes in sub-areas of the moderately and weakly active faults in eastern Chinese mainland.We build the empirical relationship between the maximum magnitudes M_(max)and the at/b values of the sub-areas' frequency-magnitude relationships.With the empirical relationship,the upper-limits Muof the Danjiang fault in Laohekou fault area is M_S6.0.The average interval recurrence time and the probabilities of destructive earthquake on the fault is evaluated with Possion model.
An important problem in long-term prediction and seismic zonation analysis is how to evaluate the potential seismic risk of weakly active faults in weak seismic background.The authors refer to the method that Wen advances to estimate magnitudes of maximum potential earthquakes in sub-areas of the moderately and weakly active faults in eastern Chinese mainland.We build the empirical relationship between the maximum magnitudes M_(max)and the at/b values of the sub-areas' frequency-magnitude relationships.With the empirical relationship,the upper-limits Muof the Danjiang fault in Laohekou fault area is M_S6.0.The average interval recurrence time and the probabilities of destructive earthquake on the fault is evaluated with Possion model.
引文
[1]闻学泽,徐锡伟,龙锋,等.中国大陆东部中-弱活动断层潜在地震最大震级评估的震级-频度关系模型[J].地震地质,2007,29(2):236-253(Wen Xueze,Xu Xiwei,Long Feng,et al.Frequency-Magnitude Relationship Models for Assessment of Maximum Magnitudes of Potential Earthquake on Moderately and Weakly Active Faults in Eastern China Mainland[J].Seismology and Geology,2007,29(2):236-253)
[2]闻学泽.时间相依的活动断裂分段地震危险性评估及其问题[J].科学通报,1998,43(14):1 457-1 466(Wen Xueze.Seismic Hazard Assessment and Its Problems of Active Faults Based on Time Dependent Method[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,1998,43(14):1 457-1 466)
[3]邓起东.城市活动断裂探测和地震危险性评价问题[J].地震地质,2002,24(4):601-605(Deng Qidong.Exploration and Seismic Hazard Assessments of Active Faults in Urban Areas[J].Seismology and Geology,2002,24(4):601-605)
[4]朱金芳,黄宗林,徐锡伟,等.福州市活断层探测与地震危险性评价[J].中国地震,2005,21(1):2-16(Zhu Jinfang,Huang Zonglin,Xu Xiwei,et al.Active Faults Exploration and Seismic Hazard Assessment in Fuzhou City[J].Earthquake Research in China,2005,21(1):2-16)
[5]梁明剑,袁道阳,刘百篪,等.兰州邻区活断层潜在地震最大震级及其危险性评估[J].中国地震,2008,24(4):317-324(Liang Mingjian,Yuan Daoyang,Liu Baichi,et al.Assessment of Seismic Risk and Maximum Magnitudes of Potential Earthquakes on Active Faults near Lanzhou City[J].Earthquake Research in China,2008,24(4):317-324)
[6]陈宇坤,刘芳,袁盾,等.天津地区隐伏断裂地震危险性定量评价[J].地震地质,2010,32(1):138-149(Chen Yukun,Liu Fang,Yuan Dun,et al.Seismic Risk Quantitative Evaluation on Blind Faults in Tianjin Area[J].Seismology and Geology,2010,32(1):138-149)
[7]Gutenberg B,Richter C F.Magnitude and Energy of Earthquakes[J].Ann Geofis,1956(9):1-15
[8]黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二——分区地震资料基本完整的起始年份图像[J].地震学报,1994,16(4):423-432(Huang Weiqiong,Li Wenxiang,Cao Xuefeng.Study II on Seismic Data’s Integerity of Chinese Mainland-The Distribution Image of the almost Complete Starting Years of Partitioned Seismic Data[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1994,16(4)423-432)
[9]国家质量技术监督局.GB18306-2015中国地震动参数区划图[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2015(Standardization Administration of China.GB18306-2015,Generality of the Map of China Earthquake Intensity Zonation[S].Beijing:China Standards Press,2015)
[10]中国地震局地震研究所.南水北调中线核心水源区地震安全系统建设项目报告[R].2016(Institute of Seismology,CEA.Report of Seismic Safety System Construction of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project[R].2016)
[11]Connel C A.Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis[J].Bull Seis Soc Am,1968,58(5):1 583-1 606
[2]闻学泽.时间相依的活动断裂分段地震危险性评估及其问题[J].科学通报,1998,43(14):1 457-1 466(Wen Xueze.Seismic Hazard Assessment and Its Problems of Active Faults Based on Time Dependent Method[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,1998,43(14):1 457-1 466)
[3]邓起东.城市活动断裂探测和地震危险性评价问题[J].地震地质,2002,24(4):601-605(Deng Qidong.Exploration and Seismic Hazard Assessments of Active Faults in Urban Areas[J].Seismology and Geology,2002,24(4):601-605)
[4]朱金芳,黄宗林,徐锡伟,等.福州市活断层探测与地震危险性评价[J].中国地震,2005,21(1):2-16(Zhu Jinfang,Huang Zonglin,Xu Xiwei,et al.Active Faults Exploration and Seismic Hazard Assessment in Fuzhou City[J].Earthquake Research in China,2005,21(1):2-16)
[5]梁明剑,袁道阳,刘百篪,等.兰州邻区活断层潜在地震最大震级及其危险性评估[J].中国地震,2008,24(4):317-324(Liang Mingjian,Yuan Daoyang,Liu Baichi,et al.Assessment of Seismic Risk and Maximum Magnitudes of Potential Earthquakes on Active Faults near Lanzhou City[J].Earthquake Research in China,2008,24(4):317-324)
[6]陈宇坤,刘芳,袁盾,等.天津地区隐伏断裂地震危险性定量评价[J].地震地质,2010,32(1):138-149(Chen Yukun,Liu Fang,Yuan Dun,et al.Seismic Risk Quantitative Evaluation on Blind Faults in Tianjin Area[J].Seismology and Geology,2010,32(1):138-149)
[7]Gutenberg B,Richter C F.Magnitude and Energy of Earthquakes[J].Ann Geofis,1956(9):1-15
[8]黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二——分区地震资料基本完整的起始年份图像[J].地震学报,1994,16(4):423-432(Huang Weiqiong,Li Wenxiang,Cao Xuefeng.Study II on Seismic Data’s Integerity of Chinese Mainland-The Distribution Image of the almost Complete Starting Years of Partitioned Seismic Data[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1994,16(4)423-432)
[9]国家质量技术监督局.GB18306-2015中国地震动参数区划图[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2015(Standardization Administration of China.GB18306-2015,Generality of the Map of China Earthquake Intensity Zonation[S].Beijing:China Standards Press,2015)
[10]中国地震局地震研究所.南水北调中线核心水源区地震安全系统建设项目报告[R].2016(Institute of Seismology,CEA.Report of Seismic Safety System Construction of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project[R].2016)
[11]Connel C A.Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis[J].Bull Seis Soc Am,1968,58(5):1 583-1 606
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