选择国内战略 定位中美关系
摘要
国内战略取向是影响中美关系走向的重要因素。过去40年,中美两国国内战略取向的契合是中美关系取得突破、发展并保持稳定的重要原因。当前,中美两国国内战略取向的差异,也是中美关系面临范式性转折的重要原因。下一阶段中美如何选择自己的战略、如何认知对方的战略,将是决定未来中美关系走向的重要因素之一。
Domestic strategy has been a key factor in China-U.S. relations. In the40 years after 1978,the adaptation of Chinese and American domestic strategies has ensured the establishment,development and stability of bilat-eral relations. In contrast,since Donald Trump came to power in the U.S.in 2017,the difference between the two countries' domestic strategies is also an important variable behind the paradigm shift of China-U.S. relations.What kinds of domestic strategies will China and the U. S. choose in the years to come? How will the two countries perceive and understand the other side's choices? These decisions will definitely impact the future directions of this most important bilateral relationship in the world.
Domestic strategy has been a key factor in China-U.S. relations. In the40 years after 1978,the adaptation of Chinese and American domestic strategies has ensured the establishment,development and stability of bilat-eral relations. In contrast,since Donald Trump came to power in the U.S.in 2017,the difference between the two countries' domestic strategies is also an important variable behind the paradigm shift of China-U.S. relations.What kinds of domestic strategies will China and the U. S. choose in the years to come? How will the two countries perceive and understand the other side's choices? These decisions will definitely impact the future directions of this most important bilateral relationship in the world.
引文
(1)Kennedy,Charles S.,“Nixon Goes to China,” Moments in U.S.Diplomatic History,The Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training:Foreign Affairs Oral History Project.available at:https://adst.org/2013/02/nixon-goes-to-china/.
(2)陶文钊:《中美关系史》,上海人民出版社,2016年第1版,第29页。
(3)中共中央文献研究室编:《邓小平年谱》,北京·中央文献出版社,2004年第1版,第474页。
(4)傅高义:《邓小平时代》(冯克利译),北京·生活·读书·新知三联书店,2013年1月第1版,第10～11章,第291～344页。
(5)温燕:《我亲历我亲历中国变革,但低估了速度》,《环球时报》2018年12月17日,第7版。
(6)Hao Yufan,“ Dilemma and Decision,An Organizational Perspective on American China Policy Making,”Research Papers and Policy Studies:40,University of California,Berkeley,1997,p.103.
(7)George H.W.Bush,Press Conference,June 5,1989,available at:https://china.usc.edu/george-hw-bush-press-conference-june-5-1989.
(8)以上互动参见《邓小平年谱》1989年6～12月的记录,第1282～1305页。1989年12月10日的讲话参见第1304～1305页,亦参见《中美关系终归要好起来才行》,《邓小平文选》(第三卷),北京·人民出版社,1993年10月第1版,第350～351页。
(9)《邓小平文选》,第350页。
(10)Cheng Li and Diana Liang,“Washington’s Search for a New Paradigm on China,” November 19,2018,China-US Focus,available at:https://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/washingtons-search-for-a-new-paradigm-on-china.
(11)The White House,“National Security Strategy of the United States,”December 18,2017,p.25.
(12)Kurt M.Campbell and Ely Ratner,“The China Reckoning,” Foreign Affairs,March/April,2018,pp.60-70.
(13)Jun Mai,“From Doves to Hawks:Why the US’ Moderate China Watchers Are Growing Sceptical about Beijing”,South China Morning Post,December 12,2018,available at:https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2177506/doves-hawks-why-moderate-us-china-watchers-are-growing.
(14)The White House,“National Security Strategy of the United States,” December 18,2017,p.2.
(15)United States Department of Commerce,“International Trade Administration,Memorandum on China’s Status as a Non-market Economy,” October 26,2017,p.4,available at:https://enforcement.trade.gov/download/prc-nme-status/prc-nme-review-final-103017.pdf.
(16)United States Trade Representative,“2017 Report to Congress On China’s WTO Compliance,”January 19,2018,p.2,available at:https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Reports/China%202017%20WTO%20Report.pdf.
(17)United States Trade Representative,“2018 Report to Congress On China’s WTO Compliance,”February.4,2019,p.5,available at:https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/2018-USTR-Report-to-Congress-on-China%27s-WTO-Compliance.pdf.
(18)Remarks by Henry M.Paulson,Jr.at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum,“The United States and China at a Crossroads”,November 7,2018,available at:http://www.paulsoninstitute.org/news/2018/11/06/statement-by-henry-m-paulson-jr-on-the-united-states-and-china-at-a-crossroads/.
(19)Remarks by Henry M.Paulson,Jr.at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum,“The United States and China at a Crossroads”,November 7,2018.
(20)经济学家布兰科·米拉诺维奇(Branko Milanovic)在其著作《全球不平等:全球化时代的一种新方式》中曾提出所谓“大象曲线”。米拉诺维奇的数据显示,过去30年间,伴随全球化的推进,高收入国家内部的中低产阶级实际收入停滞不前;全球最富裕的1%人口、中印等亚洲国家的中产阶级则是过去30年当中收入增长最快的人群。这一全球收入增长曲线因其形似大象,被称为“大象曲线”。参见Branko Milanovic,Global Inequality:A New Approach for the Age of Globalization(Cambridge,MA.:Harvard University Press,2016)。
(21)Demetri Sevastopulo and Tom Mitchell,“US Considered Ban on Student Visas for Chinese Nationals,” Financial Times,October 3,2018,available at:https://www.ft.com/content/fc413158-c5f1-11e8-82bf-ab93d0a9b321.
(2)陶文钊:《中美关系史》,上海人民出版社,2016年第1版,第29页。
(3)中共中央文献研究室编:《邓小平年谱》,北京·中央文献出版社,2004年第1版,第474页。
(4)傅高义:《邓小平时代》(冯克利译),北京·生活·读书·新知三联书店,2013年1月第1版,第10～11章,第291～344页。
(5)温燕:《我亲历我亲历中国变革,但低估了速度》,《环球时报》2018年12月17日,第7版。
(6)Hao Yufan,“ Dilemma and Decision,An Organizational Perspective on American China Policy Making,”Research Papers and Policy Studies:40,University of California,Berkeley,1997,p.103.
(7)George H.W.Bush,Press Conference,June 5,1989,available at:https://china.usc.edu/george-hw-bush-press-conference-june-5-1989.
(8)以上互动参见《邓小平年谱》1989年6～12月的记录,第1282～1305页。1989年12月10日的讲话参见第1304～1305页,亦参见《中美关系终归要好起来才行》,《邓小平文选》(第三卷),北京·人民出版社,1993年10月第1版,第350～351页。
(9)《邓小平文选》,第350页。
(10)Cheng Li and Diana Liang,“Washington’s Search for a New Paradigm on China,” November 19,2018,China-US Focus,available at:https://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/washingtons-search-for-a-new-paradigm-on-china.
(11)The White House,“National Security Strategy of the United States,”December 18,2017,p.25.
(12)Kurt M.Campbell and Ely Ratner,“The China Reckoning,” Foreign Affairs,March/April,2018,pp.60-70.
(13)Jun Mai,“From Doves to Hawks:Why the US’ Moderate China Watchers Are Growing Sceptical about Beijing”,South China Morning Post,December 12,2018,available at:https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2177506/doves-hawks-why-moderate-us-china-watchers-are-growing.
(14)The White House,“National Security Strategy of the United States,” December 18,2017,p.2.
(15)United States Department of Commerce,“International Trade Administration,Memorandum on China’s Status as a Non-market Economy,” October 26,2017,p.4,available at:https://enforcement.trade.gov/download/prc-nme-status/prc-nme-review-final-103017.pdf.
(16)United States Trade Representative,“2017 Report to Congress On China’s WTO Compliance,”January 19,2018,p.2,available at:https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Reports/China%202017%20WTO%20Report.pdf.
(17)United States Trade Representative,“2018 Report to Congress On China’s WTO Compliance,”February.4,2019,p.5,available at:https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/2018-USTR-Report-to-Congress-on-China%27s-WTO-Compliance.pdf.
(18)Remarks by Henry M.Paulson,Jr.at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum,“The United States and China at a Crossroads”,November 7,2018,available at:http://www.paulsoninstitute.org/news/2018/11/06/statement-by-henry-m-paulson-jr-on-the-united-states-and-china-at-a-crossroads/.
(19)Remarks by Henry M.Paulson,Jr.at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum,“The United States and China at a Crossroads”,November 7,2018.
(20)经济学家布兰科·米拉诺维奇(Branko Milanovic)在其著作《全球不平等:全球化时代的一种新方式》中曾提出所谓“大象曲线”。米拉诺维奇的数据显示,过去30年间,伴随全球化的推进,高收入国家内部的中低产阶级实际收入停滞不前;全球最富裕的1%人口、中印等亚洲国家的中产阶级则是过去30年当中收入增长最快的人群。这一全球收入增长曲线因其形似大象,被称为“大象曲线”。参见Branko Milanovic,Global Inequality:A New Approach for the Age of Globalization(Cambridge,MA.:Harvard University Press,2016)。
(21)Demetri Sevastopulo and Tom Mitchell,“US Considered Ban on Student Visas for Chinese Nationals,” Financial Times,October 3,2018,available at:https://www.ft.com/content/fc413158-c5f1-11e8-82bf-ab93d0a9b321.
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