黑河中游土地利用与景观格局的水文效应分析
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摘要
区域土地利用与景观格局对水文效应具有重要影响。作者以地处西北内陆干旱区的黑河中游为研究区,基于土地利用数据(2000、2010和2014年)、气候数据(1999—2015年)及基础地理信息数据,采用In VEST模型、最小二乘回归、空间回归及地理加权回归等方法,揭示土地利用与景观格局对产水的影响。结果表明:1)黑河中游产水量东南多、西北少,且有逐年减少趋势,这与当地土地利用与景观格局的变化有直接关系。2)在土地利用尺度上,林地、水体、耕地等用地类型有助于促进产水,建设用地和未利用地则抑制产水;在景观尺度上,景观类型越丰富、斑块分布越均匀,越有利于产水,反之则抑制产水。3)空间回归模型消除回归残差的空间负相关性,地理加权回归提升了模型性能。该研究结果可为区域生态系统管理提供参考。
[Background]Regional land use and the pattern of landscape have an important influence on hydrological effects. Previous studies on the influence mechanism of water yield focused on the land use area,but take little consideration about landscape pattern. [Methods]This study was conducted in the middle reaches of Heihe River,which locates in the arid area of Northwest China. Based on the land use data( 2000,2010,and 2014),climate data( 1999-2015) and basic geographic information data,this study established InVEST model to simulate the water yield. On the scale of land use,considering the spatial factors,this study analyzed the effects of land use types on water yield by means of ordinary least squares regression model,spatial regression model and geographically weighted regression model. On the scale of landscape,combining principal component analysis to screen landscape index,this study further analyzed the effects of landscape pattern on water yield. [Results] 1) The middle reaches of Heihe River had more water yield in the southeast,less in the northwest,and the water yield in 2000,2010,and 2014 was 1. 73 × 108 m3、1. 63 × 108 m3、1. 38 × 108 m3 respectively. 2) On the scale of land use,the regression coefficients of wood land,water and farmland were all greater than 0,and the coefficients of construction land and bare land were all less than 0. On the scale of landscape,the regression coefficient of the first principal component which was mainly explained by landscape richness and evenness was greater than 0,and the coefficient of the second principal component explained by area standard deviation was less than 0. Water yield is promoted in wood land,water and farmland,but reduced in construction land and bare land. 3) The Moran's I of residual of ordinary least squares regression model and spatial error model was-0. 43( P = 0. 03),0. 12( P = 0. 11) respectively. The R2 of ordinary least squares regression model,spatial regression model and geographically weighted regression model was 0. 59,0. 71,0. 90 respectively. On landscape scale,the more abundant the landscape types,the more evenly the patches distribute,the more conducive to water yield,while conversely,water yield is suppressed. The spatial regression model eliminates the negative spatial correlation of regression residuals. Geographically weighted regression improves the model performance.[Conclusions]The middle reaches of Heihe River have a decreasing trend with the increase of the year,which is directly related to the change of local land use and landscape pattern. These results may provide reference for regional ecosystem management.
[Background]Regional land use and the pattern of landscape have an important influence on hydrological effects. Previous studies on the influence mechanism of water yield focused on the land use area,but take little consideration about landscape pattern. [Methods]This study was conducted in the middle reaches of Heihe River,which locates in the arid area of Northwest China. Based on the land use data( 2000,2010,and 2014),climate data( 1999-2015) and basic geographic information data,this study established InVEST model to simulate the water yield. On the scale of land use,considering the spatial factors,this study analyzed the effects of land use types on water yield by means of ordinary least squares regression model,spatial regression model and geographically weighted regression model. On the scale of landscape,combining principal component analysis to screen landscape index,this study further analyzed the effects of landscape pattern on water yield. [Results] 1) The middle reaches of Heihe River had more water yield in the southeast,less in the northwest,and the water yield in 2000,2010,and 2014 was 1. 73 × 108 m3、1. 63 × 108 m3、1. 38 × 108 m3 respectively. 2) On the scale of land use,the regression coefficients of wood land,water and farmland were all greater than 0,and the coefficients of construction land and bare land were all less than 0. On the scale of landscape,the regression coefficient of the first principal component which was mainly explained by landscape richness and evenness was greater than 0,and the coefficient of the second principal component explained by area standard deviation was less than 0. Water yield is promoted in wood land,water and farmland,but reduced in construction land and bare land. 3) The Moran's I of residual of ordinary least squares regression model and spatial error model was-0. 43( P = 0. 03),0. 12( P = 0. 11) respectively. The R2 of ordinary least squares regression model,spatial regression model and geographically weighted regression model was 0. 59,0. 71,0. 90 respectively. On landscape scale,the more abundant the landscape types,the more evenly the patches distribute,the more conducive to water yield,while conversely,water yield is suppressed. The spatial regression model eliminates the negative spatial correlation of regression residuals. Geographically weighted regression improves the model performance.[Conclusions]The middle reaches of Heihe River have a decreasing trend with the increase of the year,which is directly related to the change of local land use and landscape pattern. These results may provide reference for regional ecosystem management.
引文
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[9] BRONSTERT A,NIEHOFF D,BURGER G. Effects ofclimate and land-use change on storm runoff generation:present knowledge and modelling capabilities[J].Hydrological Processes,2002,16(2):509.
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[11]郭洪伟,孙小银,廉丽姝,等.基于CLUE-S和In-VEST模型的南四湖流域生态系统产水功能对土地利用变化的响应[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(9):2899.GUO Hongwei,SUN Xiaoyin,LIAN Lishu,et al. Re-sponse of water yield function of ecosystem to land usechange in Nansi Lake Basin based on CLUE-S modeland In VEST model[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied E-cology,2016,27(9):2899.
[12]章戈.基于土地利用格局优化的雨洪管理模式研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2013:11.ZHANG Ge. Study on stormwater management modebased on land use pattern optimization[D]. Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2013:11.
[13]王小军.黑河流域下游金塔县沙漠化土地遥感调查及防治对策研究[J].甘肃科技,2012,28(17):45.WANG Xiaojun. Remote sensing investigation and coun-termeasures of desertification land in Jinta County,lowerreaches of Heihe River Basin[J]. Gansu Science andTechnology,2012,28(17):45.
[14]王雅,蒙吉军.基于In VEST模型的黑河中游土地利用变化水文效应时空分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(6):1157.WANG Ya,MENG Jijun. Spatial-temporal features ofhydrological effects caused by land use changes in Mid-dle Reaches of Heihe River based on In VEST model[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekin-ensis,2015,51(6):1157.
[15]胡晓利,卢玲,马明国,等.黑河中游张掖绿洲灌溉渠系的数字化制图与结构分析[J].遥感技术与应用,2008,23(2):208.HU Xiaoli,LU Ling,MA Mingguo,et al. The irrigationchannel system mapping and its structure analysis for theZhangye Oasis in the Middle Heihe River Basin[J].Remote Sensing Technology and Application,2008,23(2):208.
[16] LIU Jiyuan,LIU Mingliang,ZHUANG Dafang,et al.Study on spatial pattern of land-use change in china dur-ing 1995-2000[J]. Science in China(Series D:EarthSciences),2003,46(4):373.
[17] SHARP R,CHAPLIN-KRAMER R,WOOD S,et al.In VEST user guide:Integrated valuation of ecosystemservices and tradeoffs[M]. Stanford:The Natural Cap-ital Project,2016:115.
[18] BRUNSDON C,FOTHERINGHAM A S,CHARLTONM E. Geographically weighted regression:a method forexploring spatial nonstationarity[J]. Geographical A-nalysis,1996,28(4):281.
[19]黄秋兰,唐咸艳,周红霞,等.四种空间回归模型在疾病空间数据影响因素筛选中的比较研究[J].中国卫生统计,2013,30(3):334.HUANG Qiulan,TANG Xianyan,ZHOU Hongxia,etal. Comparison of four spatial regression models forscreening disease factors[J]. Chinese Journal of HealthStatistics,2013,30(3):334.
[20]李敏.基于In VEST模型的生态系统服务功能评价研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2016:34.LI Min. Ecosystem services evaluation based on In VESTmodel[D]. Beijing:Beijing Forestry University,2016:34.
[21]周伟,曹银贵,王静.彭州市熙玉村农村居民点整理潜力的景观特征[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(10):316.ZHOU Wei, CAO Yingui, WANG Jing. Landscapecharacteristics of rural residential consolidation potential-ity in Xiyu,Pengzhou city[J]. Transactions of theCSAE,2011,27(10):316.
[22]郑建蕊,蒋卫国,周廷刚,等.洞庭湖区湿地景观指数选取与格局分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(3):305.ZHENG Jianrui,JIANG Weiguo,ZHOU Tinggang,etal. Selection of wetland landscape indices and analysisof landscape pattern in Dongting Lake Area[J]. Re-sources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2010,19(3):305.
[23]李佩伶,刘艳芳,李庆玲,等.基于空间异质性的湖北平原、湖南丘陵、贵州高原多尺度景观指数筛选[J].生态科学,2016,35(6):53.LI Peiling,LIU Yanfang,LI Qingling,et al. Selectinglandscape metrics based on spatial heterogeneity at dif-ferent scales in the Jianghan Plain of Hubei,the South-ern Hills of Hunan and the Guizhou Plateau[J]. Eco-logical Science,2016,35(6):53.
[24] LI X,LU L,CHENG G,et al. Quantifying landscapestructure of the Heihe river basin,north-west China u-sing fragstats[J]. Journal of Arid Environments,2001,48(4):521.
[25] CUSHMAN S A,MCGARIGAL K,NEEL M C. Parsi-mony in landscape metrics:Strength,universality,andconsistency[J]. Ecological Indicators,2008,8(5):691.
[26]王蓓,赵军,胡秀芳.基于In VEST模型的黑河流域生态系统服务空间格局分析[J].生态学杂志,2016,35(10):2783.WANG Bei,ZHAO Jun,HU Xiufang. Spatial pattern a-nalysis of ecosystem services based on In VEST in HeiheRiver Basin[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology,2016,35(10):2783.
[27]徐丽华,岳文泽,曹宇.上海市城市土地利用景观的空间尺度效应[J].应用生态学报,2007,18(12):2827.XU Lihua,YUE Wenze,CAO Yu. Spatial scale effectof urban land use landscape pattern in Shanghai City[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2007,18(12):2827.
[28]杨富春,赵建才.张掖绿洲与黑河流域生态安全对策探析[J].甘肃林业,2016(5):18.YANG Fuchun,ZHAO Jiancai. Discussion on ecologi-cal security countermeasures of Zhangye Oasis andHeihe River Basin[J]. Gansu Forestry,2016(5):18.
[2] CUDENNEC C, LEDUC C, KOUTSOYIANNIS D.Dryland hydrology in Mediterranean regions:A review[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des SciencesHydrologiques,2007,52(6):1077.
[3]孙艳伟,李加林,马仁锋,等.于桥水库流域水源供给服务的空间分布格局[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(6):1.SUN Yanwei,LI Jialin,MA Renfeng,et al. Style of spa-tial distribution of water supply service in Yuqiao water-shed[J]. Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineer-ing,2015,26(6):1.
[4]李昌峰,高俊峰,曹慧.土地利用变化对水资源影响研究的现状和趋势[J].土壤,2002(4):191.LI Changfeng,GAO Junfeng,CAO Hui. The current sit-uation and trend of the study on the impact of land usechange on water resources[J]. Soil,2002(4):191.
[5]陈莹,许有鹏,尹义星.基于土地利用/覆被情景分析的长期水文效应研究:以西苕溪流域为例[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(2):351.CHEN Ying,XU Youpeng,YIN Yixing. Simulation ofthe hydrological response to land-use and land-coverchanges scenarios:A case study of Xitiaoxi Basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2009,24(2):351.
[6]李丽娟,姜德娟,李九一,等.土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究进展[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(2):211.LI Lijuan,JIANG Dejuan,LI Jiuyi,et al. Advances inhydrological response to land use/land cover change[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2007,22(2):211.
[7] SMITH L C. Satellite remote sensing of river inundationarea,stage,and discharge:a review[J]. HydrologicalProcesses,1997,11(10):1427.
[8]潘韬,吴绍洪,戴尔阜,等.基于In VEST模型的三江源区生态系统水源供给服务时空变化[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(1):183.PAN Tao,WU Shaohong,DAI Erfu,et al. Spatiotempo-ral variation of water source supply service in Three Riv-ers Source Area of China based on In VEST model[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2013,24(1):183.
[9] BRONSTERT A,NIEHOFF D,BURGER G. Effects ofclimate and land-use change on storm runoff generation:present knowledge and modelling capabilities[J].Hydrological Processes,2002,16(2):509.
[10] BOSCH J M,HEWLETT J D. A review of catchmentexperiments to determine the effect of vegetation changeson water yield and evapo-transpiration[J]. Journal ofHydrology,1982,55(1/2/3/4):3.
[11]郭洪伟,孙小银,廉丽姝,等.基于CLUE-S和In-VEST模型的南四湖流域生态系统产水功能对土地利用变化的响应[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(9):2899.GUO Hongwei,SUN Xiaoyin,LIAN Lishu,et al. Re-sponse of water yield function of ecosystem to land usechange in Nansi Lake Basin based on CLUE-S modeland In VEST model[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied E-cology,2016,27(9):2899.
[12]章戈.基于土地利用格局优化的雨洪管理模式研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2013:11.ZHANG Ge. Study on stormwater management modebased on land use pattern optimization[D]. Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2013:11.
[13]王小军.黑河流域下游金塔县沙漠化土地遥感调查及防治对策研究[J].甘肃科技,2012,28(17):45.WANG Xiaojun. Remote sensing investigation and coun-termeasures of desertification land in Jinta County,lowerreaches of Heihe River Basin[J]. Gansu Science andTechnology,2012,28(17):45.
[14]王雅,蒙吉军.基于In VEST模型的黑河中游土地利用变化水文效应时空分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(6):1157.WANG Ya,MENG Jijun. Spatial-temporal features ofhydrological effects caused by land use changes in Mid-dle Reaches of Heihe River based on In VEST model[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekin-ensis,2015,51(6):1157.
[15]胡晓利,卢玲,马明国,等.黑河中游张掖绿洲灌溉渠系的数字化制图与结构分析[J].遥感技术与应用,2008,23(2):208.HU Xiaoli,LU Ling,MA Mingguo,et al. The irrigationchannel system mapping and its structure analysis for theZhangye Oasis in the Middle Heihe River Basin[J].Remote Sensing Technology and Application,2008,23(2):208.
[16] LIU Jiyuan,LIU Mingliang,ZHUANG Dafang,et al.Study on spatial pattern of land-use change in china dur-ing 1995-2000[J]. Science in China(Series D:EarthSciences),2003,46(4):373.
[17] SHARP R,CHAPLIN-KRAMER R,WOOD S,et al.In VEST user guide:Integrated valuation of ecosystemservices and tradeoffs[M]. Stanford:The Natural Cap-ital Project,2016:115.
[18] BRUNSDON C,FOTHERINGHAM A S,CHARLTONM E. Geographically weighted regression:a method forexploring spatial nonstationarity[J]. Geographical A-nalysis,1996,28(4):281.
[19]黄秋兰,唐咸艳,周红霞,等.四种空间回归模型在疾病空间数据影响因素筛选中的比较研究[J].中国卫生统计,2013,30(3):334.HUANG Qiulan,TANG Xianyan,ZHOU Hongxia,etal. Comparison of four spatial regression models forscreening disease factors[J]. Chinese Journal of HealthStatistics,2013,30(3):334.
[20]李敏.基于In VEST模型的生态系统服务功能评价研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2016:34.LI Min. Ecosystem services evaluation based on In VESTmodel[D]. Beijing:Beijing Forestry University,2016:34.
[21]周伟,曹银贵,王静.彭州市熙玉村农村居民点整理潜力的景观特征[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(10):316.ZHOU Wei, CAO Yingui, WANG Jing. Landscapecharacteristics of rural residential consolidation potential-ity in Xiyu,Pengzhou city[J]. Transactions of theCSAE,2011,27(10):316.
[22]郑建蕊,蒋卫国,周廷刚,等.洞庭湖区湿地景观指数选取与格局分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(3):305.ZHENG Jianrui,JIANG Weiguo,ZHOU Tinggang,etal. Selection of wetland landscape indices and analysisof landscape pattern in Dongting Lake Area[J]. Re-sources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2010,19(3):305.
[23]李佩伶,刘艳芳,李庆玲,等.基于空间异质性的湖北平原、湖南丘陵、贵州高原多尺度景观指数筛选[J].生态科学,2016,35(6):53.LI Peiling,LIU Yanfang,LI Qingling,et al. Selectinglandscape metrics based on spatial heterogeneity at dif-ferent scales in the Jianghan Plain of Hubei,the South-ern Hills of Hunan and the Guizhou Plateau[J]. Eco-logical Science,2016,35(6):53.
[24] LI X,LU L,CHENG G,et al. Quantifying landscapestructure of the Heihe river basin,north-west China u-sing fragstats[J]. Journal of Arid Environments,2001,48(4):521.
[25] CUSHMAN S A,MCGARIGAL K,NEEL M C. Parsi-mony in landscape metrics:Strength,universality,andconsistency[J]. Ecological Indicators,2008,8(5):691.
[26]王蓓,赵军,胡秀芳.基于In VEST模型的黑河流域生态系统服务空间格局分析[J].生态学杂志,2016,35(10):2783.WANG Bei,ZHAO Jun,HU Xiufang. Spatial pattern a-nalysis of ecosystem services based on In VEST in HeiheRiver Basin[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology,2016,35(10):2783.
[27]徐丽华,岳文泽,曹宇.上海市城市土地利用景观的空间尺度效应[J].应用生态学报,2007,18(12):2827.XU Lihua,YUE Wenze,CAO Yu. Spatial scale effectof urban land use landscape pattern in Shanghai City[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2007,18(12):2827.
[28]杨富春,赵建才.张掖绿洲与黑河流域生态安全对策探析[J].甘肃林业,2016(5):18.YANG Fuchun,ZHAO Jiancai. Discussion on ecologi-cal security countermeasures of Zhangye Oasis andHeihe River Basin[J]. Gansu Forestry,2016(5):18.