两类ENSO事件对中国东部地区极端降水的影响
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摘要
利用1979～2010年中国地区降水数据和IRESST全球海温数据,对比研究了东部型和中部型El Ni1o/La Ni1a事件成熟期至衰退期(冬季至次年夏季)对中国东部地区极端降水和一般降水的影响,进而揭示在两类ENSO事件影响中国东部地区降水时,极端降水和一般降水各自所占的比重。结果表明:极端降水在冬、春和夏季均占总降水量的1/2以上,其中冬季所占比重最高,夏季最低,而且长江以北比长江以南高。当两类ENSO事件发生时,中国东部地区极端降水异常空间分布特征与该地区总降水基本一致,而该地区一般降水异常分布特征则与总降水和极端降水显示出较大差别,表明两类ENSO事件均是主要通过影响极端降水异常来影响到我国东部地区的总降水异常分布。从两类ENSO事件对比来看,东部型ENSO对中国东部地区极端降水的影响要显著强于中部型ENSO,而且在各季节,两类ENSO事件影响下极端降水的空间分布特征也有所不同。在此基础上,分析了1979～2010年4次最强ENSO事件对于中国东部地区极端降水的影响,结果发现,最强ENSO事件对极端降水的影响也是远强于一般降水,而且极端降水异常分布特征与总降水异常基本一致,但是当最强ENSO事件发生时,中国东部地区极端降水和总降水的异常变化较一般ENSO事件更剧烈。
Using the daily precipitation data in China and the IRESST global sea surface temperature data during1979-2010,the effects of the Eastern-Pacific and Central-Pacific El Ni1o/La Ni1 a events on the extreme precipitation and the general precipitation events in eastern China during the period from maturity to recession were studied to reveal the proportion of the extreme precipitation and general precipitation of the total influencing by the two kinds of ENSO events. The results show that,the extreme precipitation accounts for more than half of the total precipitation in winter,spring,and summer,which proportion is the biggest in winter and smallest in summer. Besides,the proportion that the extreme precipitation accounts for in the north of the Yangtze River is higher than that in the south of the Yangtze River. Furthermore,when the two types of ENSO occur,the spatial distribution characteristics of the extreme precipitation anomalies in eastern China are basically consistent with that of the total precipitation anomalies in the region. However,the features of the general precipitation anomalies in this area show a large difference from those of the total and extreme precipitation. The above shows that the two types of ENSO events affect the distribution feature of total precipitation anomalies in eastern China mainly through affecting the extreme precipitation anomalies. From the comparison of the two types of ENSO events,the effect of the Eastern-Pacific ENSO on the extreme precipitation in eastern China is significantly stronger than that of the Central-Pacific ENSO. In addition, under the influence of two types of ENSO events, the distribution characteristics of the extreme precipitation are also different. On this basis,the impact of the four strongest ENSO events during the period of 1979-2010 on the extreme precipitation in eastern China are analyzed. It turns out that the influence of the strongest ENSO events on the extreme precipitation is also much stronger than that of the general precipitation,and the anomalous distribution features of the extreme precipitation are basically consistent with the total precipitation anomalies. However,when the strongest ENSO events occur,the abnormal magnitude variation of the extreme precipitation and total precipitation in eastern China are greater than that of the general ENSO events.
Using the daily precipitation data in China and the IRESST global sea surface temperature data during1979-2010,the effects of the Eastern-Pacific and Central-Pacific El Ni1o/La Ni1 a events on the extreme precipitation and the general precipitation events in eastern China during the period from maturity to recession were studied to reveal the proportion of the extreme precipitation and general precipitation of the total influencing by the two kinds of ENSO events. The results show that,the extreme precipitation accounts for more than half of the total precipitation in winter,spring,and summer,which proportion is the biggest in winter and smallest in summer. Besides,the proportion that the extreme precipitation accounts for in the north of the Yangtze River is higher than that in the south of the Yangtze River. Furthermore,when the two types of ENSO occur,the spatial distribution characteristics of the extreme precipitation anomalies in eastern China are basically consistent with that of the total precipitation anomalies in the region. However,the features of the general precipitation anomalies in this area show a large difference from those of the total and extreme precipitation. The above shows that the two types of ENSO events affect the distribution feature of total precipitation anomalies in eastern China mainly through affecting the extreme precipitation anomalies. From the comparison of the two types of ENSO events,the effect of the Eastern-Pacific ENSO on the extreme precipitation in eastern China is significantly stronger than that of the Central-Pacific ENSO. In addition, under the influence of two types of ENSO events, the distribution characteristics of the extreme precipitation are also different. On this basis,the impact of the four strongest ENSO events during the period of 1979-2010 on the extreme precipitation in eastern China are analyzed. It turns out that the influence of the strongest ENSO events on the extreme precipitation is also much stronger than that of the general precipitation,and the anomalous distribution features of the extreme precipitation are basically consistent with the total precipitation anomalies. However,when the strongest ENSO events occur,the abnormal magnitude variation of the extreme precipitation and total precipitation in eastern China are greater than that of the general ENSO events.
引文
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[2] ZHANG L,SIELMANN F,FRAEDRICH K,et al. Variability of winter extreme precipitation in Southeast China:Contributions of SST anomalies[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015,45(9-10):2557-2570.
[3]任正果,张明军,王圣杰,等. 1961-2011年中国南方地区极端降水事件变化[J].地理学报,2014,69(5):640-649.REN Z G,ZHANG M J,WANG S J,et al. Changes in precipitation extremes in South China during 1961-2011[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(5):640-649.
[4]柯丹,管兆勇.华中地区夏季区域性极端日降水事件变化特征及环流异常[J].气象学报,2014,72(3):478-493.KE D,GUAN Z Y. Regional mean daily precipitation extremes over Central China during boreal summer and its relation with the anomalous circulation patterns[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2014,72(3):478-493.
[5]程乘,朱益民,丁黄兴,等.中国东部地区夏季降水和环流的年代际转型及其与PDO的联系[J].气象科学,2017,37(4):450-457.CHENG C,ZHU Y M,DING H X,et al. The interdecadal shift of summer precipitation and atmospheric circulation over East China and its realtionship with PDO[J]. Journal of the Mereorological Sciences,2017,37(4):450-457.
[6]高楚杰,陈海山,许蓓,等.南海海温和西南地区土壤湿度异常与中国东部夏季降水的可能联系[J].热带气象学报,2013,29(1):75-82.GAO C J,CHEN H S,XU B,et al. Possible relationships among South China Sea SSTA,soil moisture anomalies in Southwest China and summer precipitation in Eastern China[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2013,29(1):75-82.
[7]吴统文,钱正安.青藏高原冬春积雪异常与中国东部地区夏季降水关系的进一步分析[J].气象学报,2000,58(5):570-581.WU T W,QIAN Z A. Further analyses of the linkage between winter and spring snow depth anomaly over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and summer rainfall of Easter China[J]. Acta Mereorologica Sinica,2000,58(5):570-581.
[8] DING Y,SUN Y,WANG Z,et al. Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon Part II:Possible causes[J].Intjclimatol,2010,29(13):1926-1944.
[9] JIANHUA J,JUNMEI L,JIE C,et al. Possible impacts of the arctic oscillation on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2005,22(1):39-48.
[10]杨修群,谢倩,朱益民,等.华北降水年代际变化特征及相关的海气异常型[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(4):789-797.YANG X Q,XIE Q,ZHU Y M,et al. Decadal-to-interdecadal variability of precipitation in North China and associated atmospheric and oceanic anomaly patterns[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2005,48(4):789-797.
[11]张庆云,吕俊梅,杨莲梅,等.夏季中国降水型的年代际变化与大气内部动力过程及外强迫因子关系[J].大气科学,2007,31(6):1290-1300.ZHANG Q Y,LV J M,YANG L M,et al. The interdecadal variation of precipitation pattern over China during summer and its relationship with the atmospheric internal dynamic precesses and Extre-Forcing factors[J]. Chinese Joural of Atmospheric Sciences,2007,31(6):1290-1300.
[12] LI C,MA H. Relationship between ENSO and winter rainfall over Southeast China and its decadal variability[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2012,29(6):1129-1141.
[13] ZHANG R,LI T,WEN M,et al. Role of intraseasonal oscillation in asymmetric impacts of El Ni1o and La Ni1a on the rainfall over southern China in boreal winter[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014,45(3-4):559-567.
[14] ZHOU L T,WU R. Respective impacts of the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO on winter rainfall in China[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,2010,115(D2).
[15] BIN WANG R W,AND XIOUHUA FU. Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:How does ENSO affect East Asian climate?[J]. Journal of Climate,2000,13(9):1517-1536.
[16] ZHOU L-T. Influence of South China sea SST and the ENSO on winter rainfall over south China[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2010,27(4):832-844.
[17] HUANG R,WU Y. The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1989,6(1):21-32.
[18] ZHANG R,SUMI A,KIMOTO M. A diagnostic study of the impact of El Ni1o on the precipitation in China[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1999,16(2):229-241.
[19]黄平,黄荣辉. El Ni1o事件对其衰减阶段夏季中国降水季节内演变的影响及其机理[J].大气科学学报,2010,33(5):513-519.HUANG P,HAUGN R. Effects of El Ni1o events on intraseasonal variations of following summer rainfall in China and its mechanism[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2010,33(5):513-519.
[20]朱坚,张耀存,黄丹青.全球变暖情景下中国东部地区不同等级降水变化特征分析[J].高原气象,2009,28(4):889-896.ZHU J,ZHANG Y C,HAUGN D Q. Analysis of changes on different-class precipitation over Eastern China under global warming[J]. Plateau Meteorology,2009,28(4):889-896.
[21]王苗,郭品文,邬昀. ENSO对我国东部极端降水的季节影响[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(6):808-816.WANG M,GUO P W,WU Y. Impact of ENSO on the seasonal extreme rainfall over Eastern Chian[J]. Recources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(6):808-816.
[22]李威,翟盘茂.中国极端强降水日数与ENSO的关系[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(6):336-342.LI W,ZHAI P M. Relationship between ENSO and frequency of extreme precipitation days in China[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2009,5(6):336-342.
[23]马继华. ENSO对中国夏半年极端降水的影响[C]; proceedings of the S1,灾害天气研究与预报,F,2012.MA J H. The ipmact of ENSO effect on exteme precipitation in the summer half-year over China[C],proceeding of the S1,Disaster Weather Rearch and Forecast,F,2012.
[24] FU C,DIAZ H F,FLETCHER J O. Characteristics of the response of sea surface temperature in the central Pacific associated with warm episodes of the Southern Oscillation[J]. Monthly Weather Review,1986,114(9):1716-1739.
[25] YEH S W,KUG J S,DEWITTE B,et al. El Ni1o in a changing climate[J]. Nature,2009,461(7263):511.
[26] LEE T,MCPHADEN M J. Increasing intensity of El Ni1o in the central-equatorial Pacific[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2010,37(14).
[27] ASHOK K,BEHERA S K,RAO S A,et al. El Ni1o Modoki and its possible teleconnection[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans,2007,112(C11).
[28]王钦,李双林,付建建,等. 1998和2010年夏季降水异常成因的对比分析:兼论两类不同厄尔尼诺事件的影响[J].气象学报,2012,70(6):1207-1222.WANG Q,LI S L,FU J J,et al. On the formation anomalous summer precipitation in the years of 2010 and 1998:A comparison of the El Ni1o’s impact between Modoki and typical El Ni1o cases[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinca,2012,70(6):1207-1222.
[29] KIM D W,CHOI K S,BYUN H R. Effects of El Ni1o Modoki on winter precipitation in Korea[J]. Climate Dynamics,2011,38(7-8):1313-1324.
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