两类厄尔尼诺事件对中国东部冬季气溶胶的影响
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摘要
利用MERRA-2再分析气溶胶光学厚度及气象观测资料,在剔除人为排放长期变化产生的气溶胶光学厚度扰动的基础上,从气候学角度探讨了两类厄尔尼诺事件对中国东部冬季气溶胶的影响。结果表明,东部型厄尔尼诺事件使绝大部分区域气溶胶光学厚度呈正异常分布,尤其对华北至东北的气溶胶污染加剧作用显著;而中部型厄尔尼诺事件使气溶胶光学厚度异常由南至北呈显著的"+-"双极型分布。进一步成因分析发现,虽然两类厄尔尼诺事件都具有削弱冬季风从而减弱北方气溶胶向南传输的作用,但中部型对水平流场的削弱作用不显著,尤其是东北地区没有通过90%的显著性检验。同时二者对北方大气垂直扰动和气溶胶的湿清除作用相反,其中东部型表现为大气垂直扰动和对流有效位能减弱,降水减少,湿清除减弱;而中部型则表现为垂直扰动和对流有效位能增强,降水增多,湿清除增强。对于南方,强东部型事件引发的强降水可能是产生该区域气溶胶污染影响不稳定的主因,而中部型则主要通过气流削弱作用加剧长江中下游地区气溶胶的局地污染。
After removing the aerosol optical depth(AOD)disturbance caused by long-term trend of anthropogenic emissions,the modulation effect of two types of El Ni?o on wintertime aerosol pollution and transport from the perspective of climatology is analyzed based on MERRA-2 reanalysis AOD and meteorological observation data.The results show that the EP El Ni?o events lead to positive AOD anomalies in most regions,and aggravate aerosol pollution especially from North China to Northeast China.And the CP El Ni?o events lead to significant "+-" bipolar distribution of AOD anomalies from south to north.Further analysis shows that although both types of El Ni?o event have the effect of weakening the wintertime wind and reducing aerosol transport from north to south,the weakening effect of CP El Ni?o events on horizontal flow field is not significant,especially in the northeastern region,where the significance level is lower than 90%.Furthermore,the effects of the two types on atmospheric vertical disturbance and wet removal of aerosols in the north are opposite,specifically,the EP El Ni?o events weaken convective available potential energy(CAPE),reduce precipitation,and weaken wet removal of aerosols;in contrast,the CP El Ni?o events enhance CAPE,increase precipitation and strengthen wet removal.In the south,heavy precipitation caused by significant EP El Ni?o events may be the main reason for the variation in regional aerosol pollution.The CP El Ni?o events aggravate local aerosol pollution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River mainly through weakening the wind speed.
After removing the aerosol optical depth(AOD)disturbance caused by long-term trend of anthropogenic emissions,the modulation effect of two types of El Ni?o on wintertime aerosol pollution and transport from the perspective of climatology is analyzed based on MERRA-2 reanalysis AOD and meteorological observation data.The results show that the EP El Ni?o events lead to positive AOD anomalies in most regions,and aggravate aerosol pollution especially from North China to Northeast China.And the CP El Ni?o events lead to significant "+-" bipolar distribution of AOD anomalies from south to north.Further analysis shows that although both types of El Ni?o event have the effect of weakening the wintertime wind and reducing aerosol transport from north to south,the weakening effect of CP El Ni?o events on horizontal flow field is not significant,especially in the northeastern region,where the significance level is lower than 90%.Furthermore,the effects of the two types on atmospheric vertical disturbance and wet removal of aerosols in the north are opposite,specifically,the EP El Ni?o events weaken convective available potential energy(CAPE),reduce precipitation,and weaken wet removal of aerosols;in contrast,the CP El Ni?o events enhance CAPE,increase precipitation and strengthen wet removal.In the south,heavy precipitation caused by significant EP El Ni?o events may be the main reason for the variation in regional aerosol pollution.The CP El Ni?o events aggravate local aerosol pollution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River mainly through weakening the wind speed.
引文
陈圣劼,何金海,吴志伟.2013.一种新的El Nino海气耦合指数.大气科学,37(4):815-828.Chen S J,He J H,Wu Z W.2013.New ocean-atmosphere coupling indices for El Nino.Chinese J Atmos Sci,37(4):815-828(in Chinese)
郭增元,刘煜,李维亮.2017.气溶胶影响亚洲夏季风机理的数值研究.气象学报,75(5):797-810.Guo Z L,Liu Y,Li W L.2017.A numerical study of the mechanism of aerosols'effect on Asian summer monsoon.Acta Meteor Sinica,75(5):797-810(in Chinese)
李占清.2016.气溶胶对亚洲季风的强迫及影响:认识与挑战.气象学报,74(6):1017-1022.Li Z Q.2016.Aerosol forcing and impacts on the Asian monsoons:Knowledge and uncertainties.Acta Meteor Sinica,74(6):1017-1022(in Chinese)
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李海燕,张文君,何金海.2016b.ENSO及其组合模态对中国东部各季节降水的影响.气象学报,74(3):322-334.Li H Y,Zhang W J,He J H,et al.2016b.Influences of ENSO and its combination mode on seasonal precipitation over eastern China.Acta Meteor Sinica,74(3):322-334(in Chinese)
李令军,李金香,辛连忠等.2006.北京市春节期间大气污染分析.中国环境科学,26(5):537-541.Li L J,Li J X,Xin L Z,et al.2006.Analysis of atmospheric air pollution of Beijing city in Spring Festival period.China Environ Sci,26(5):537-541(in Chinese)
李智玉,张文君,徐海明.2015.两类ENSO事件非对称性特征分析.气象学报,73(6):1019-1038.Li Z Y,Zhang W J,Xu HM.2015.Analysis of the asymmetric features for the two types of ENSO.Acta Meteor Sinica,73(6):1019-1038(in Chinese)
汪婉婷,管兆勇.2018.夏季厄尔尼诺-Modoki和东部型ENSO海表温度异常分布型特征及其与海洋性大陆区域气候异常的联系.气象学报,76(1):1-14.Wang W T,Guan Z Y.2018.The SSTA patterns of El Nino-Modoki and eastern Pacific ENSOand their associations with regional climate variation in the Maritime Continent during boreal summer.Acta Meteor Sinica,76(1):1-14(in Chinese)
王哲,王自发,郑海涛.2014.一种评估烟花爆竹燃放对大气PM2.5影响的新方法.中国环境监测,30(3):31-36.Wang Z,Wang Z F,Zheng H T.2014.A new method to estimate the impacts of fireworks on airborne PM2.5.Environ Monit China,30(3):31-36(in Chinese)
王占山,张大伟,李云婷等.2015.2014年春节期间北京市空气质量分析.环境科学学报,35(2):371-378.Wang Z S,Zhang DW,Li Y T,et al.2015.Analysis of air quality in Beijing city during Spring Festival period of 2014.Acta Sci Circumst,35(2):371-378(in Chinese)
袁心仪,张文君,耿新.2017.ENSO发展和衰亡阶段中非线性项的作用.气象学报,75(5):784-796.Yuan X Y,Zhang W J,Geng X.Effects of nonlinear terms during ENSO developing and decaying phases.Acta Meteor Sinica,75(5):784-796(in Chinese)
张小玲,徐敬,李腊平.2008.不同气象条件下烟花爆竹燃放对空气质量的影响研究.气象与环境学报,24(4):6-12.Zhang XL,Xu J,Li L P.2008.Effect of fireworks burning on air quality under different meteorological conditions.J Meteor Environ,24(4):6-12(in Chinese)
周任君,蔡宏珂,易明建等.2011.ENSO对平流层气溶胶分布的影响.地球物理学报,54(11):2726-2734.Zhou R J,Cai H K,Yi M J,et al.2011.The impact of the ENSO cycle on the stratospheric aerosol distribution.Chin J Geophys,54(11):2726-2734(in Chinese)
Alexander M A,BladéI,Newman M,et al.2002.The atmospheric bridge:The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans.J Climate,15(16):2205-2231
Ashok K,Behera S K,Rao S A,et al.2007.El Nino Modoki and its possible teleconnection.J Geophys Res,112(C11):C11007
Ashok K,Yamagata T.2009.Climate change:The El Nino with a difference.Nature,461(7263):481-484
Bjerknes J.1969.Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific.Mon Wea Rev,97(3):163-172
Bollasina M,Nigam S,Lau K M.2008.Absorbing aerosols and summer monsoon evolution over South Asia:An observational portrayal.J Climate,21(13):3221-3239
Cai W J,Li K,Liao H,et al.2017.Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change.Nat Clim Chang,7(4):257-262
Chang L Y,Xu J M,Tie X X,et al.2016.Impact of the 2015 El Nino event on winter air quality in China.Sci Rep,6:34275
DeFlorio M J,Goodwin I D,Cayan D R,et al.2016.Interannual modulation of subtropical Atlantic boreal summer dust variability by ENSO.Climate Dyn,46(1-2):585-599
Feng J,Wang L,Chen W,et al.2010.Different impacts of two types of Pacific Ocean warming on Southeast Asian rainfall during boreal winter.J Geophys Res,115(D24):D24122
Feng J,Li J P,Zhu J L,et al.2016.Influences of El Nino Modoki event 1994/1995 on aerosol concentrations over southern China.J Geophys Res,121(4):1637-1651
Feng J,Li J P,Zhu J L,et al.2017.Simulated contrasting influences of two La Nina Modoki events on aerosol concentrations over eastern China.J Geophys Res,122(5):2734-2749
Gelaro R,McCarty W,Suárez M J,et al.2017.The modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications,version 2(MERRA-2).J Climate,30(14):5419-5454
Kao H Y,Yu J Y.2009.Contrasting eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific types of ENSO.J Climate,22(3):615-632
Kim H M,P J Webster,J A Curry.2009.Impact of shifting patterns of Pacific Ocean warming on North Atlantic tropical cyclones.Science,325:77-80
Kim M K,Lau W K M,Kim K M,et al.2016.Amplification of ENSO effects on Indian summer monsoon by absorbing aerosols.Climate Dyn,46(7-8):2657-2671
Kug J S,Jin F F,An S I.2009.Two types of El Nino events:Cold tongue El Nino and warm pool El Nino.J Climate,22(6):1499-1515
Larkin N K,Harrison D E.2005.On the definition of El Nino and associated seasonal average U.S.weather anomalies.Geophys Res Lett,32(13):L13705
Li Z Q,Lau W K M,Ramanathan V,et al.2016.Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia.Rev Geophys,54(4):866-929
McPhaden M J,Lee T,McClurg D.2011.El Nino and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific O-cean.Geophys Res Lett,38(15):L15709
Randles C A,da Silva A M,Buchard V,et al.2016.Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation.NASA/TM-2016-104606.
Randles C A,da Silva A M,Buchard V,et al.2017.The MERRA-2 aerosol reanalysis,1980 onward.PartⅠ:System description and data assimilation evaluation.J Climate,30(17):6823-6850
Ren H L,Jin F F.2011.Nino indices for two types of ENSO.Geophys Res Lett,38(4):L04704
Ropelewski C F,Halpert M S.1987.Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation.Mon Wea Rev,115(8):1606-1626
Trenberth K E,Caron J M.2000.The Southern Oscillation revisited:Sea level pressures,surface temperatures,and precipitation.J Climate,13(24):4358-4365
van Loon H,Madden R A.1981.The southern oscillation.PartⅠ:Global associations with pressure and temperature in northern winter.Mon Wea Rev,109(6):1150-1162
Wallace J M,Rasmusson E M,Mitchell T P,et al.1998.On the structure and evolution of ENSO-related climate variability in the tropical Pacific:lessons from TOGA.J Geophys Res,103(C7):14241-14259
Wang H J,Chen H P,Liu J P.2015.Arctic sea ice decline intensified haze pollution in eastern China.Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett,8(1):1-9
Wang Y,Zhuang G S,Xu C,et al.2007.The air pollution caused by the burning of fireworks during the Lantern Festival in Beijing.Atmos Environ,41(2):417-431
Wang Y,Chen J N,Wang H N.2013.Distribution of the tropical Pacific surface zonal wind anomaly and its relation with two types of El Nino.Chin J Oceanol Limnol,31(5):1137-1152
Wu G X,Li Z Q,Fu C B,et al.2016.Advances in studying interactions between aerosols and monsoon in China.Sci China Earth Sci,59(1):1-16
Xu K,Zhu C W,He J H.2013.Two types of El Nino-related Southern Oscillation and their different impacts on global land precipitation.Adv Atmos Sci,30(6):1743-1757
Yeh S W,Kug J S,Dewitte B,et al.2009.El Nino in a changing climate.Nature,461(7263):511-514
Zhang M,Wang X M,Chen J M,et al.2010.Physical characterization of aerosol particles during the Chinese New Year's firework events.Atmos Environ,44(39):5191-5198
Zhang R H,Li Q,Zhang R N.2014a.Meteorological conditions for the persistent severe fog and haze event over eastern China in January 2013.Sci China Earth Sci,57(1):26-35
Zhang W J,Jin F F,Turner A.2014b.Increasing autumn drought over southern China associated with ENSO regime shift.Geophys Res Lett,41(11):4020-4026
Zhao S Y,Zhang H,Xie B.2018.The effects of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on the winter haze pollution of China.Atmos Chem Phys,18(3):1863-1877
Zou Y F,Wang Y H,Zhang Y Z,et al.2017.Arctic sea ice,Eurasia snow,and extreme winter haze in China.Sci Adv,3(3):e1602751
郭增元,刘煜,李维亮.2017.气溶胶影响亚洲夏季风机理的数值研究.气象学报,75(5):797-810.Guo Z L,Liu Y,Li W L.2017.A numerical study of the mechanism of aerosols'effect on Asian summer monsoon.Acta Meteor Sinica,75(5):797-810(in Chinese)
李占清.2016.气溶胶对亚洲季风的强迫及影响:认识与挑战.气象学报,74(6):1017-1022.Li Z Q.2016.Aerosol forcing and impacts on the Asian monsoons:Knowledge and uncertainties.Acta Meteor Sinica,74(6):1017-1022(in Chinese)
李海燕,张文君,何金海等.2016a.SST年循环对El Nino事件局地海气过程的影响.海洋学报,38(1):56-68.Li H Y,Zhang W J,He J H,et al.2016a.Influence of SST annual cycle on local air-sea processes during El Nino events.Acta Oceanol Sinica,38(1):56-68(in Chinese)
李海燕,张文君,何金海.2016b.ENSO及其组合模态对中国东部各季节降水的影响.气象学报,74(3):322-334.Li H Y,Zhang W J,He J H,et al.2016b.Influences of ENSO and its combination mode on seasonal precipitation over eastern China.Acta Meteor Sinica,74(3):322-334(in Chinese)
李令军,李金香,辛连忠等.2006.北京市春节期间大气污染分析.中国环境科学,26(5):537-541.Li L J,Li J X,Xin L Z,et al.2006.Analysis of atmospheric air pollution of Beijing city in Spring Festival period.China Environ Sci,26(5):537-541(in Chinese)
李智玉,张文君,徐海明.2015.两类ENSO事件非对称性特征分析.气象学报,73(6):1019-1038.Li Z Y,Zhang W J,Xu HM.2015.Analysis of the asymmetric features for the two types of ENSO.Acta Meteor Sinica,73(6):1019-1038(in Chinese)
汪婉婷,管兆勇.2018.夏季厄尔尼诺-Modoki和东部型ENSO海表温度异常分布型特征及其与海洋性大陆区域气候异常的联系.气象学报,76(1):1-14.Wang W T,Guan Z Y.2018.The SSTA patterns of El Nino-Modoki and eastern Pacific ENSOand their associations with regional climate variation in the Maritime Continent during boreal summer.Acta Meteor Sinica,76(1):1-14(in Chinese)
王哲,王自发,郑海涛.2014.一种评估烟花爆竹燃放对大气PM2.5影响的新方法.中国环境监测,30(3):31-36.Wang Z,Wang Z F,Zheng H T.2014.A new method to estimate the impacts of fireworks on airborne PM2.5.Environ Monit China,30(3):31-36(in Chinese)
王占山,张大伟,李云婷等.2015.2014年春节期间北京市空气质量分析.环境科学学报,35(2):371-378.Wang Z S,Zhang DW,Li Y T,et al.2015.Analysis of air quality in Beijing city during Spring Festival period of 2014.Acta Sci Circumst,35(2):371-378(in Chinese)
袁心仪,张文君,耿新.2017.ENSO发展和衰亡阶段中非线性项的作用.气象学报,75(5):784-796.Yuan X Y,Zhang W J,Geng X.Effects of nonlinear terms during ENSO developing and decaying phases.Acta Meteor Sinica,75(5):784-796(in Chinese)
张小玲,徐敬,李腊平.2008.不同气象条件下烟花爆竹燃放对空气质量的影响研究.气象与环境学报,24(4):6-12.Zhang XL,Xu J,Li L P.2008.Effect of fireworks burning on air quality under different meteorological conditions.J Meteor Environ,24(4):6-12(in Chinese)
周任君,蔡宏珂,易明建等.2011.ENSO对平流层气溶胶分布的影响.地球物理学报,54(11):2726-2734.Zhou R J,Cai H K,Yi M J,et al.2011.The impact of the ENSO cycle on the stratospheric aerosol distribution.Chin J Geophys,54(11):2726-2734(in Chinese)
Alexander M A,BladéI,Newman M,et al.2002.The atmospheric bridge:The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans.J Climate,15(16):2205-2231
Ashok K,Behera S K,Rao S A,et al.2007.El Nino Modoki and its possible teleconnection.J Geophys Res,112(C11):C11007
Ashok K,Yamagata T.2009.Climate change:The El Nino with a difference.Nature,461(7263):481-484
Bjerknes J.1969.Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific.Mon Wea Rev,97(3):163-172
Bollasina M,Nigam S,Lau K M.2008.Absorbing aerosols and summer monsoon evolution over South Asia:An observational portrayal.J Climate,21(13):3221-3239
Cai W J,Li K,Liao H,et al.2017.Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change.Nat Clim Chang,7(4):257-262
Chang L Y,Xu J M,Tie X X,et al.2016.Impact of the 2015 El Nino event on winter air quality in China.Sci Rep,6:34275
DeFlorio M J,Goodwin I D,Cayan D R,et al.2016.Interannual modulation of subtropical Atlantic boreal summer dust variability by ENSO.Climate Dyn,46(1-2):585-599
Feng J,Wang L,Chen W,et al.2010.Different impacts of two types of Pacific Ocean warming on Southeast Asian rainfall during boreal winter.J Geophys Res,115(D24):D24122
Feng J,Li J P,Zhu J L,et al.2016.Influences of El Nino Modoki event 1994/1995 on aerosol concentrations over southern China.J Geophys Res,121(4):1637-1651
Feng J,Li J P,Zhu J L,et al.2017.Simulated contrasting influences of two La Nina Modoki events on aerosol concentrations over eastern China.J Geophys Res,122(5):2734-2749
Gelaro R,McCarty W,Suárez M J,et al.2017.The modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications,version 2(MERRA-2).J Climate,30(14):5419-5454
Kao H Y,Yu J Y.2009.Contrasting eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific types of ENSO.J Climate,22(3):615-632
Kim H M,P J Webster,J A Curry.2009.Impact of shifting patterns of Pacific Ocean warming on North Atlantic tropical cyclones.Science,325:77-80
Kim M K,Lau W K M,Kim K M,et al.2016.Amplification of ENSO effects on Indian summer monsoon by absorbing aerosols.Climate Dyn,46(7-8):2657-2671
Kug J S,Jin F F,An S I.2009.Two types of El Nino events:Cold tongue El Nino and warm pool El Nino.J Climate,22(6):1499-1515
Larkin N K,Harrison D E.2005.On the definition of El Nino and associated seasonal average U.S.weather anomalies.Geophys Res Lett,32(13):L13705
Li Z Q,Lau W K M,Ramanathan V,et al.2016.Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia.Rev Geophys,54(4):866-929
McPhaden M J,Lee T,McClurg D.2011.El Nino and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific O-cean.Geophys Res Lett,38(15):L15709
Randles C A,da Silva A M,Buchard V,et al.2016.Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation.NASA/TM-2016-104606.
Randles C A,da Silva A M,Buchard V,et al.2017.The MERRA-2 aerosol reanalysis,1980 onward.PartⅠ:System description and data assimilation evaluation.J Climate,30(17):6823-6850
Ren H L,Jin F F.2011.Nino indices for two types of ENSO.Geophys Res Lett,38(4):L04704
Ropelewski C F,Halpert M S.1987.Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation.Mon Wea Rev,115(8):1606-1626
Trenberth K E,Caron J M.2000.The Southern Oscillation revisited:Sea level pressures,surface temperatures,and precipitation.J Climate,13(24):4358-4365
van Loon H,Madden R A.1981.The southern oscillation.PartⅠ:Global associations with pressure and temperature in northern winter.Mon Wea Rev,109(6):1150-1162
Wallace J M,Rasmusson E M,Mitchell T P,et al.1998.On the structure and evolution of ENSO-related climate variability in the tropical Pacific:lessons from TOGA.J Geophys Res,103(C7):14241-14259
Wang H J,Chen H P,Liu J P.2015.Arctic sea ice decline intensified haze pollution in eastern China.Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett,8(1):1-9
Wang Y,Zhuang G S,Xu C,et al.2007.The air pollution caused by the burning of fireworks during the Lantern Festival in Beijing.Atmos Environ,41(2):417-431
Wang Y,Chen J N,Wang H N.2013.Distribution of the tropical Pacific surface zonal wind anomaly and its relation with two types of El Nino.Chin J Oceanol Limnol,31(5):1137-1152
Wu G X,Li Z Q,Fu C B,et al.2016.Advances in studying interactions between aerosols and monsoon in China.Sci China Earth Sci,59(1):1-16
Xu K,Zhu C W,He J H.2013.Two types of El Nino-related Southern Oscillation and their different impacts on global land precipitation.Adv Atmos Sci,30(6):1743-1757
Yeh S W,Kug J S,Dewitte B,et al.2009.El Nino in a changing climate.Nature,461(7263):511-514
Zhang M,Wang X M,Chen J M,et al.2010.Physical characterization of aerosol particles during the Chinese New Year's firework events.Atmos Environ,44(39):5191-5198
Zhang R H,Li Q,Zhang R N.2014a.Meteorological conditions for the persistent severe fog and haze event over eastern China in January 2013.Sci China Earth Sci,57(1):26-35
Zhang W J,Jin F F,Turner A.2014b.Increasing autumn drought over southern China associated with ENSO regime shift.Geophys Res Lett,41(11):4020-4026
Zhao S Y,Zhang H,Xie B.2018.The effects of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on the winter haze pollution of China.Atmos Chem Phys,18(3):1863-1877
Zou Y F,Wang Y H,Zhang Y Z,et al.2017.Arctic sea ice,Eurasia snow,and extreme winter haze in China.Sci Adv,3(3):e1602751
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